Global Fallout from the Ukraine War

[YouSir]

Not adding this to the sub-forum because it's not about Ukraine per se but about the potential effects elsewhere. Russia has peacekeepers in Armenia, has been involved in the Republic of Srpska/Bosnia, they're in Syria, they're the dominant power in parts of Central Asia, they have Muslim majority areas like Chechnya and Dagestan which might be open to distancing themselves from Russia or extremist efforts... so here's a thread for any news or sources on potential knock on effects from the Ukraine War and Russia's apparent struggle there/shifting resources/global fallout.

For a starter - been listening to the Redline podcast over on YouTube which isn't pumping out live updates or anything but the guy (and his guests) do go into depth on situations that might relate. The one on Nagorno Karabakh and the possibility of another Azeri/Armenian war is interesting for example (imo). There's also an episode on Turkish interests in Central Asia which again isn't that focused on the effects of Ukraine but which does talk about the potential conflicts between Russian and Turkish interests which might be a shifting issue now.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheRedLinePod/videos

 

[YouSir]

Dodik who's been threatening secession from Bosnia and who's formed an army after rejecting the Bosnian central authority. Also a recipient of Russian military advisors and, I think, weapons. No idea whether Ukraine makes him pushing further more or less likely.

 

[Ming]

Global fallout are two words which make me nervous when combined In this context.

 

[YouSir]

Azerbaijan's Aliyev labelling Armenians as Fascists, which is ongoing rhetoric... Ilham Aliyev: fascism is on the rise in Armenia

Russians fleeing to Armenia to escape Putin's regime... Fleeing Repression, Russians Rebuild Their Lives in Armenia - The Moscow Times

Russia has decent relations with both sides and peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, which the Azeris want to take and could quite easily if Russia withdrew. Aliyev is calling for peace (Azerbaijan urges quick peace deal with Armenia but states firm line) but not sure anyone believes that, or at least believes that it won't involve bad times for Armenians.

No idea how any of this will change with Russia being distracted but there you go. Turkey's deep in Azeri business too so shrug

 

[Turkic755]

Russians and Ukranians are fleeing to Turkiye actually, there are at least 10.000 Russians in the town where I live, I see Ukranian plate cars everywhere. And ofcourse Armenians are fleeing to Turkiye too. There are at least 100,000 illegal Armenians who have chosen to flee from "Armenia" and live in Turkiye.

Azerbaijan's Aliyev labelling Armenians as Fascists, which is ongoing rhetoric... Ilham Aliyev: fascism is on the rise in Armenia

Russians fleeing to Armenia to escape Putin's regime... Fleeing Repression, Russians Rebuild Their Lives in Armenia - The Moscow Times

Russia has decent relations with both sides and peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, which the Azeris want to take and could quite easily if Russia withdrew. Aliyev is calling for peace (Azerbaijan urges quick peace deal with Armenia but states firm line) but not sure anyone believes that, or at least believes that it won't involve bad times for Armenians.

No idea how any of this will change with Russia being distracted but there you go. Turkey's deep in Azeri business too so shrug

 

[Ax^]

.

 

[PR1Berske]

A pretty dark thread about Putin's weapons worse than bombs

 

[yield]

A pretty dark thread about Putin's weapons worse than bombs

Are Worldwide Food Shortages Coming? Rising costs, lower crop yields.

I think a lot of this is scaremongering, but I could be wrong: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means the food inflation that’s been plaguing global consumers is now tipping into a full-blown crisis, potentially outstripping even the pandemic’s blow and pushing millions more into hunger...

www.urban75.net

The war in Ukraine has certainly made things worse.
Commodities traders caused starvation and malnutrition for 200 million people 2010
Tbf war should've been declared on commodity traders.

 

[bcuster]

 

[YouSir]

Dodik who's been threatening secession from Bosnia and who's formed an army after rejecting the Bosnian central authority. Also a recipient of Russian military advisors and, I think, weapons. No idea whether Ukraine makes him pushing further more or less likely.

Kosovo not Bosnia but rumblings of bad stuff going on...

Tensions Rise as Kosovo Implements Reciprocity Measures on Serbia - Exit - Explaining Albania

Kosovo Serbs have blocked streets in the northern part of the country as Kosovo prepares to implement new requirements for Serbian travelers on Monday. Starting August 1, Serbian citizens will be issued temporary IDs to replace their Serbian passports when visiting Kosovo. Serbia has imposed...

exit.al

Serbian President:



Days after Kosovo announce they're going for EU membership.

Twitter says civilians (not sure if they're armed) are creating border check points.

 

[YouSir]

Kosovo not Bosnia but rumblings of bad stuff going on...

Tensions Rise as Kosovo Implements Reciprocity Measures on Serbia - Exit - Explaining Albania

Kosovo Serbs have blocked streets in the northern part of the country as Kosovo prepares to implement new requirements for Serbian travelers on Monday. Starting August 1, Serbian citizens will be issued temporary IDs to replace their Serbian passports when visiting Kosovo. Serbia has imposed...

exit.al

Serbian President:

View attachment 335449

Days after Kosovo announce they're going for EU membership.

Twitter says civilians (not sure if they're armed) are creating border check points.

Rumours of troop movements too but I can't see any real confirmation of that.

 

[PR1Berske]

Belgrade is associated with (to use innuendo and euphemism) Moscow. I'm not surprised to see that this development is starting, if Russia is struggling why not open a second front, as it were.

 

[YouSir]

Belgrade is associated with (to use innuendo and euphemism) Moscow. I'm not surprised to see that this development is starting, if Russia is struggling why not open a second front, as it were.

Why would Serbia do it though? It'll mean direct conflict with NATO and Russia might send guns but that'll mean virtually nothing. The Serbs can't win, even if they can kill people for a while.

 

[kebabking]

Why would Serbia do it though? It'll mean direct conflict with NATO and Russia might send guns but that'll mean virtually nothing. The Serbs can't win, even if they can kill people for a while.

It's not about a second military front, it's a second political front: it's giving Europe something else
to worry about when it's already got its hands full with Ukraine, and deciding what to do about the UN PK/RE Mali which Russia is interfering with.

It's 'we can make your life increasingly difficult', stirring up very bad memories of the Balkan wars, and having people looking over their shoulders and thinking 'actually, Russia is pretty powerful, what have we done..?'.

There's little in it for Serbia, but for Serbian politicians and senior officials who are up to their neck in corruption, there's a great deal to lose from an unhappy Vlad.

 

[steeplejack]

It’s alarmist horseshit, an awful lot of misinformation about this on social media.

Summary:

1. Serbia unhappy about Kosovar govt decision;

2. Local civilians ( not military) farting around with ‘checkpoints’)

3. US Army’s biggest base in ex-YU is at Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo;

4. Russians may be having a chuckle at some local difficulty but this has precisely bugger all to do with them

 

[steeplejack]

The stuff about Dodik above in this thread is bloody nonsense as well.

 

[Pickman's model]

It’s alarmist horseshit, an awful lot of misinformation about this on social media.

Summary:

1. Serbia unhappy about Kosovar govt decision;

2. Local civilians ( not military) farting around with ‘checkpoints’)

3. US Army’s biggest base in ex-YU is at Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo;

4. Russians may be having a chuckle at some local difficulty but this has precisely bugger all to do with them

camp bondsteel quite extensive too:

e2a: looked a bit further and found Area Support Group - Balkans and very curiously (to me anyway) the deputy to camp commander colonel dinenna is a mr brian l wilson. i'd have expected a major or similar - cia?

 

[steeplejack]

One of the largest if not the largest US bases in Europe.

 

[steeplejack]

An interesting discussion on events in Kosova:

 

[not-bono-ever]

Serbian Right-Winger Says Vagner Ties Could Help If There's 'Conflict In Kosovo'

Russian mercenary group Vagner's new public PR effort included a visit by Serbian ultranationalists who, incidentally, would like to know Moscow has their back in Kosovo.

www.rferl.org

yeah I know , an RFE link but there you go.

Wagner mercenaries open center in Belgrade & apparently active on Kosovo border

Wagner group opens «cultural center» in Belgrade «Russian mercenaries threaten Kosovo returnees from Switzerland»War in Ukraine followed by tensions in the Western Balkans. Apparently there are Rus…

time.news

Wagner opening an office in Belgrade as well - could be a recruiting drive for furious Serbs nationalists

 

[not-bono-ever]

camp bondsteel quite extensive too:
View attachment 335483
e2a: looked a bit further and found Area Support Group - Balkans and very curiously (to me anyway) the deputy to camp commander colonel dinenna is a mr brian l wilson. i'd have expected a major or similar - cia?

His Bio does seem to show him being an operational type atm but with lots of previous Military front office stuff for a couple of decades.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Kosovo closes main border crossing after roadblock in Serbia

Kosovo closed its biggest border crossing with Serbia on Wednesday after protesters blocked it on the Serbian side to support their ethnic kin in Kosovo in refusing to recognise the country's independence.

www.reuters.com

Thats s a pretty major crossing that has been closed

 

[RD2003]

Seeing as the war isn't going to end soon, perhaps an ongoing problem? From the Guardian.



More on Russia’s response to the oil price cap, via Reuters:

Under the cap, oil traders who want to retain access to Western financing for such crucial aspects of global shipping as insurance must promise not to pay above $60 per barrel for Russian seaborne oil.

That is close to the current price for Russian oil, but far below the prices at which Russia was able to sell it for much of the past year, when windfall energy profits helped Moscow offset the impact of financial sanctions.

The decree from Putin, published on a government portal and the Kremlin website, was presented as a direct response to “actions that are unfriendly and contradictory to international law by the United States and foreign states and international organisations joining them”.

The Kremlin ban would halt crude oil sales to countries participating in the price cap from 1 February to 1 July 2023. A separate ban on refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel would take effect on a date to be set by the government. Putin would have authority to overrule the measures in special cases.

Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, and any actual disruption to its sales would have far-reaching consequences for global energy supplies.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Moscow has already said it will insure vessels involved in its dirty work. I think I posted on this earlier. Whether that insurance will actually allow then to actually function is another matter. Oil has no memory or morals . It invariably gets to its buyer