General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

[elbows]

No doubt discussed elsewhere on the boards, so apologies, but the story "Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study" <if true, wouldnt it be coming up in testing? Or is the study saying we might have it AND it doesnt show up on tests? I know we're not testing much here in the UK, but presumably its simliar in other countries where testing is wider.

There is plenty of backwards thinking in those headlines, although the study does still say some things that can allow such a headline to be generated.

What the Oxford model is really supposed to do is define a relationship between how many people will require hospitalisation, and how many are already immune.

So the model is not supposed to be a replacement for antibody studies in the population. Rather, it desperately needs that testing to be done, so that the results can be fed into their model, and estimates for hospitalisation over time generated as a result.

Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with the number of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections. Importantly, the results we present here suggest the ongoing epidemics in the UK and Italy started at least a month before the first reported death and have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries. There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease'.

This relationship can be used to determine how many people will require hospitalisation (and possibly die) in the coming weeks if we are able to accurately determine current levels of herd immunity. There is thus an urgent need for investment in technologies such as virus (or viral pseudotype) neutralization assays and other robust assays which provide reliable read-outs of protective immunity, and for the provision of open access to valuable data sources such as blood banks and paired samples of acute and convalescent sera from confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 to validate these. Urgent development and assessment of such tests should be followed by rapid implementation at scale to provide real-time data. These data will be critical to the proper assessment of the effects of social distancing and other measures currently being adopted to slow down the case incidence and for informing future policy direction.

Dropbox - File Deleted - Simplify your life

www.dropbox.com

 

[SheilaNaGig]

The most recent research has observed that infected and then 'recovered' people continue to shed viral genetic material for weeks afterwards.

Yes. I’ve been s saying this for a couple of weeks. It’s worth repeating.

Also, some indications that the virus was detected on hard surface on the Diamond princess for up to 17 days after it must have landed on the surface.

 

[platinumsage]

Yes. I’ve been s saying this for a couple of weeks. It’s worth repeating.

Also, some indications that the virus was detected on hard surface on the Diamond princess for up to 17 days after it must have landed on the surface.

Just because viral RNA is detected doesn't mean that creates a risk of infection.

 

[weltweit]

Just because viral RNA is detected doesn't mean that creates a risk of infection.

You are going to have to explain that to me in English please?

 

[2hats]

Just because viral RNA is detected doesn't mean that creates a risk of infection.

Correct. It's an unknown. It may represent a risk and so should be treated as such for the purposes of infection control.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

Just because viral RNA is detected doesn't mean that creates a risk of infection.

This is true. And hopefully it was just evidence of diligent checking.

But it indicates the potential for extended contagion on surfaces. We need to err on the side of caution right now. Absence of proof of the potential for extended contagion isn’t proof of absence.

The postman who came to my door this morning isn’t someone I've seen before. He stood close to the door and handed me a parcel. He seemed confused when I stepped back. Having seen reports that the virus can survive for 24 hours on cardboard and seeing that Postie was neither going to step back nor lay the parcel down on my doormat I very gingerly took it from him and set it down on the floor.

Normally I’m very relaxed about hygiene but in the current circumstances I’m taking every possible precaution.

I really ought to have asked him to step back or to lay down the parcel, but pre-virus etiquette stopped me.

 

[Raheem]

Correct. It's an unknown. It may represent a risk and so should be treated as such for the purposes of infection control.

Not sure whether it is an unknown (which I guess makes it one of those unknown unknowns).

A while ago, an expert on Radio 4 said that there's a threshold. You need a certain quantity of the virus in one place for it to be infectious.

 

[T & P]

Is it right that I am more excited about having found a box of eggs in the shop this morning than I ever was when I managed to score pills at nightclubs in the 90s?

 

[2hats]

Not sure whether it is an unknown (which I guess makes it one of those unknown unknowns).

A while ago, an expert on Radio 4 said that there's a threshold. You need a certain quantity of the virus in one place for it to be infectious.

And that is? Known? Quantified?

 

[planetgeli]

Is it right that I am more excited about having found a box of eggs in the shop this morning than I ever was when I managed to score pills at nightclubs in the 90s?

I don't believe you. The bit about finding the eggs.

 

[hash tag]

WOT - no MOT -

WOT...no link people!

MoT tests: 750,000 took place in April despite six-month extension | Auto Express

The number of MoT tests in Britain fell 80 per cent between March and April, but over a quarter of a million tests still took place

www.autoexpress.co.uk

 

[T & P]

I don't believe you. The bit about finding the eggs.

Half an hour ago at the Co-op in Tulse Hill there were four packs of rather expensive organic eggs, Well, three after I bought mine. There were also three or four packs of duck's eggs.

 

[Raheem]

And that is? Known? Quantified?

From what he was saying, yes. The bottom line being that there could be traces of RNA on a surface for a very long time, but it will only be infectious for a much shorter time, ranging up to a few days.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I've found a new way to pass the time (for me at least). I've been online trolling gun nuts.* Some of them seem to think they can solve the current problem by buying more guns. The poor naïve souls have no idea what's coming for them. No gun is going to save them from sickness or bankruptcy.

* Full disclosure: I'm a gun owner. I used to shoot competitively. I do not, however, think guns are there to solve all of our problems.

 

[2hats]

From what he was saying, yes. The bottom line being that there could be traces of RNA on a surface for a very long time, but it will only be infectious for a much shorter time, ranging up to a few days.

Researcher/group?

 

[Raheem]

Researcher/group?

Like I was saying: (Expert on Radio 4 2020). You're not obliged to believe it if you have a good reason not to.

 

[2hats]

Like I was saying: (Expert on Radio 4 2020). You're not obliged to believe it if you have a good reason not to.

It's not a question of belief, but one of ascertaining references.

 

[Supine]

Not sure whether it is an unknown (which I guess makes it one of those unknown unknowns).

it’s just an unknown. Unknown unknowns are subjects we don’t even know about!

 

[Raheem]

it’s just an unknown. Unknown unknowns are subjects we don’t even know about!

Maybe it's an unknown with self-doubt.

 

[Teaboy]

Waitrose.

Ha. I didn't need to know, I just wanted to trick you into outing yourself.

Get him urban!

 

[hash tag]

If you reread my earlier post, you will conclude it was not me that shopped as I am shielding.
besides which, I have previously defended Waitrose for the way they treat their staff....just saying like

 

[weepiper]

People in the Highlands are losing patience.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

No gun is going to save them from sickness or bankruptcy.

Technically that statement is untrue.

 

[treelover]

GP thinks i have C19, what is revealing is she says many many others are presenting with similar symptoms, I suspect there are massive amounts of cases more than official stats.

 

[Raheem]

GP thinks i have C19, what is revealing is she says many many others are presenting with similar symptoms, I suspect there are massive amounts of cases more than official stats.

What are your symptoms?

 

[Teaboy]

GP thinks i have C19, what is revealing is she says many many others are presenting with similar symptoms, I suspect there are massive amounts of cases more than official stats.

There most certainly is. Hopefully testing will become available soon and I hope your experience like most is pretty minor.

 

[hash tag]

Hardly surprising as it appears to be spreading like wildfire and very few people are getting tested. Also possible many have it without knowing or thinking about it.
We are firefighting with both legs tied together, hands cuffed behind our backs and blindfolded.

 

[treelover]

What are your symptoms?

will post them later

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Technically that statement is untrue.

Well, I suppose they could blow their brains out if they get sick, or pawn the gun if they need money.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Well, I suppose they could blow their brains out if they get sick, or pawn the gun if they need money.

Or rob a bank.