Football betting and odds, discussion and other gambling stuff

[Mr Retro]

I can't find something I like at low enough odds!

 

[ffsear]

Someone flashed a laser in Roonys face as he took the penalty last night!!

I WAS ROBBED!!!!!!!!!!

Wayne Rooney laser incident to be investigated by FA

 

[ffsear]

By the way, if you assume that a 1.07 odds bet has a 93.5% chance of winning, then to win 30 times on the trot has a probability of 13.3% (0.935^30).

Therefore if you play regularly, you win once every 7.5 times you try this, so you bet £150 to recoup £150. However you also have to pay commission, and the odds don't equate to actual probability.

Sorry but you really need to take this thread with a pinch of salt.!

 

[mauvais]

I'll take it how I like, ta

 

[ffsear]

I can't find something I like at low enough odds!

I did say odds of 1.05 to 1.10 originally. May have to widen that a bit. Man City to Beat Norwich @ 1.28 on Sat looks tasty!

 

[ice-is-forming]

I'm in

Just put $20 into a sports bet account.

bet 1 of $1. is Oriol Gaset to win @ $2.66 against JJ Ambrose MMA (HEX) this sat.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This thread reminds me of a Graeme Swann quote just after he'd got out for 24. 'An agonising 76 runs short of my maiden century.'

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I did say odds of 1.05 to 1.10 originally. May have to widen that a bit. Man City to Beat Norwich @ 1.28 on Sat looks tasty!

Those are awful odds. These sorts of short odds in a two-horse race are never value. You'd be better off taking a form team and betting them not winning.

Irrc Wales beating England in the rugby was 3/1 or even 7/2. Was always likely to be close - that was value.

 

[ffsear]

Those are awful odds. These sorts of short odds in a two-horse race are never value. You'd be better off taking a form team and betting them not winning.

Have to disagree. The odds put Man City at a 78.1% chance of winning. They have scored 18 goals in their last 5 games and are playing a team who have not won in 5 and lost 6-2 to Newcastle!

Also, its a 3 horse race, not 2

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Man city are top of the league at the moment, winning 70 per cent of their games so far. Even in great form, they don't win as many games as those odds.

 

[ffsear]

Yes but they dont play Norwich every week

 

[bi0boy]

That went well

 

[Fez909]

Someone flashed a laser in Roonys face as he took the penalty last night!!

I WAS ROBBED!!!!!!!!!!

Wayne Rooney laser incident to be investigated by FA

I'm not going to let this take the shine off the win

 

[ffsear]

I'm not going to let this take the shine off the win

I think the match should be re-played and all losing bets be refunded!

 

[xenon]

By the way, if you assume that a 1.07 odds bet has a 93.5% chance of winning, then to win 30 times on the trot has a probability of 13.3% (0.935^30).

Therefore if you play regularly, you win once every 7.5 times you try this, so you bet £150 to recoup £150. However you also have to pay commission, and the odds don't equate to actual probability.

The old over round book.

Anyway, it's adhearing to daft betting schemes like this that spoil the enjoyment of betting for me. I don't gamble a lot, am quite discerning.

OP. DO what I do, back against Palace. Psychological consolation. (Ignore the draws.)

 

[ffsear]

ok going with..

Sampdoria v Empoli FC - Over 0.5 goals. £20 at 1.06.

27 goals scored by these 2 teams in 18 games. Thats a goal rate of 1.5 per game.

 

[isvicthere?]

Nope, simply starting from fresh.

Ignore the sneerers. You said from the outset it can sometimes go tits-up. I'm still interested.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Ignore the sneerers. You said from the outset it can sometimes go tits-up. I'm still interested.

He fell an agonising 27 bets short.

 

[ffsear]

Ignore the sneerers. You said from the outset it can sometimes go tits-up. I'm still interested.

To be fair the "show ignored content" button is showing at the bottom of the thread so I've probably missed most of it.

 

[ffsear]

Scratch this one. Leeds aren't scoring many and Blackburn have had a 0-0 in their last 3 and failed to score in their last 3. Gonna hunt for something better.

HA! and Blackburn score in the first minute!

 

[twentythreedom]

ok going with..

Sampdoria v Empoli FC - Over 0.5 goals. £20 at 1.06.

27 goals scored by these 2 teams in 18 games. Thats a goal rate of 1.5 per game.

Does "over 0.5 goals" just mean that if someone scores a goal you win?

 

[ffsear]

Does "over 0.5 goals" just mean that if someone scores a goal you win?

Yes. Always expressed in .05 So over 1.5 for 2 goals, over 2.5 for 3 goals and so on. And thats total goals in the game, regardless of which team scored them.

 

[twentythreedom]

Yes. Always expressed in .05 So over 1.5 for 2 goals, over 2.5 for 3 goals and so on.

They should just say "1 or more" rather than introducing the arbitrary concept of 0.5 goals unnecessarily. Thick people might get confused by it

 

[ffsear]

They should just say "1 or more" rather than introducing the arbitrary concept of 0.5 goals unnecessarily. Thick people might get confused by it

Its because you can bet Under as well as Over.

Under 1.5 means, we'd expect 0 or 1 goals,
Over 1.5 means, we need to see at least 2 goals in the match.

This is why bookmakers add 0.5 to the number. In case we see only 1 goal, where does it belong to? Is it Under 1 or over 1? With +0.5, we know clearly, one goal is under 1.5.

 

[ffsear]

ok going with..

Sampdoria v Empoli FC - Over 0.5 goals. £20 at 1.06.

27 goals scored by these 2 teams in 18 games. Thats a goal rate of 1.5 per game.

0-0 half time!

 

[twentythreedom]

Its because you can bet Under as well as Over.

Under 1.5 means, we'd expect 0 or 1 goals,
Over 1.5 means, we need to see at least 2 goals in the match.

This is why bookmakers add 0.5 to the number. In case we see only 1 goal, where does it belong to? Is it Under 1 or over 1? With +0.5, we know clearly, one goal is under 1.5.

Yeah I get that Just seems daft to me.

"we clearly know that 1 is less than 1.5"

 

[ffsear]

I think it comes down to the fact that gambling bets are not legally binding, so bookies are very specific with their wording of what the bet is. Goes back to the days when you could bet on credit I think. I guess someone could of argued that 2 goals is not "over" 2 goals.

 

[ffsear]

ok going with..

Sampdoria v Empoli FC - Over 0.5 goals. £20 at 1.06.

27 goals scored by these 2 teams in 18 games. Thats a goal rate of 1.5 per game.

Goal.

Back in now £21.20 Blackburn to win @ 1.07

 

[mauvais]

I think it comes down to the fact that gambling bets are not legally binding,

Not the case. Gambling Act 2005.

 

[adidaswoody]

I'm with you on this all the way mate I'll do the same starting tomorrow and post my bets too! I gambled for 2 years in 2011 - 2013 and made enough profit to take me and another person on a decent holiday