Football betting and odds, discussion and other gambling stuff
- Thread starter ffsear
- Start date
adidaswoody
Like a star
I often found that betting in play helps, like when a team is 2-0 up with say 30 mins left, the thing is still usually something like 1.1 or something similar? Dunno if what I'm saying is making sense xD but I used those circumstances a lot to get my small fortune
ffsear
Well-Known Member
I often found that betting in play helps, like when a team is 2-0 up with say 30 mins left, the thing is still usually something like 1.1 or something similar? Dunno if what I'm saying is making sense xD but I used those circumstances a lot to get my small fortune
Makes perfect sense. In Play is when the traders get involved and prices swing all over the place (especially in tennis!) SO if you time it right, you can get a great prices!
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
These odds are terrible.
You had a worse than 7/8 chance of that given your own stats, making 1.06 awful odds. You're betting against the house here.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbh I think short odds might be the worst value, as people have little intuitive sense of the difference between what is 4/5 on and what is 19/20 on - the actual given odds - and the vast difference between the two.
You do get that 1.20 is four times as good as 1.05, yes?
You do get that 1.20 is four times as good as 1.05, yes?
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Mr Retro
Beware hedgehogs
Are you always so condescending? I'm always amused at the ignorant smug who have a sliver of knowledge and therefore consider themselves real maths/stats/odds/betting gurus on threads like these.
Here is what one of my heroes, Harry Findlay, says about short odds:
"It's the biggest myth in racing! It's the biggest myth in life! That is my golden rule. Do not be afraid to back odds-on. It's a myth perpetrated by bookmakers and ignorant punters. Cowards! When people say they never bet odds-on what they're really saying is they can't count or they're a coward. They're afraid of the risk factor."
By the way, I wonder if he backed New Zealand this World Cup? He lost a reported £2.7m on them in 2007
joustmaster
offcumdun
I don't think anyone has said that.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
There seem to be some confused people in here.
This isn't blackjack, or roulette where the house has a mathematical edge.
If the odds are so nailed on they why don't i just go on betfair and lay everything? I'll be loaded by the end of the week surely?
Why do bookies employ teams of traders to balance their books and lay off their exposure if its impossible to beat the house?
The bookies only edge is to try and work out the probability of an event occurring and the give you odds that are slightly worse then that probability itself. But how do you work out true true probability in sporting events that involve Humans, Horses, Dogs etc etc? There are so many other factors that come into play. (Horses can fall, people can have off days, 10,000 boro fans can turn up to old trafford and make it feel like a home game!!) some of which can't be represented mathematically. Answer is... You can't. Bookies may have their price structuring models or what ever they use, but anyone can do their own research and come up with an opinion and convert that opinion into probability.
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ffsear
Well-Known Member
What are you on about. Yes i know 1.20 is better then 1.05, but in relation to what? You're just throwing numbers around and not backing them up with any sort of form.
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ffsear
Well-Known Member
These odds are terrible.
You're betting against the house here.
How are they terrible odds? Had you looked up any of the form before making that statement? How can you say the odds are terrible on an event you not even researched? Better yet, why do you just go in and lay it if its so terrible... ?
mauvais
on reddit or something
You now appear to be trying to find a justification for a system, whereas before it was supposedly for fun. #justsayin
In a single event, it's entirely possible to beat the house - it's just probability. When you keep trying this, it converges on the impossible. Especially when they're the expert.
In a single event, it's entirely possible to beat the house - it's just probability. When you keep trying this, it converges on the impossible. Especially when they're the expert.
bi0boy
Power User
Betfair take a five percent commission so that is never going to work.
They don't really care about the actual probability, only about the spread of bets across all outcomes. Their other edge is having loads of money and therefore being able to mitigate and carry risk that individual punters can't.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Thats not the reason it wouldn't work
I don't even
Mr Retro
Beware hedgehogs
Yes, so you've said. Several times now.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Please stop stating the bloody obvious.
Mr Retro
Beware hedgehogs
Huh?
mauvais
on reddit or something
Perhaps you could be so kind as to stop encouraging me with your apparent obliviousness?
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Its amazing isn't it. Some people seem to think this thread is supposed to be some sort of nailed on betting golden goose secret system. I pretty sure its says Betting "CHALLENGE"
ffsear
Well-Known Member
You're the oblivious one. You've got the total wrong end of the stick about this thread.
Perhaps you should just move on.
edit: actually your going on ignore now, have had a look at you're posts on other threads and its much of the same passive aggressive nitpicking.
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mauvais
on reddit or something
And if you don't like inviting comment, perhaps forum threads aren't for you?
Apparently this thread is nothing more than a fun bet, except fun bets don't wade into the possibility of beating the house and talking about mathematical edges, which you want to do on your own terms whilst objecting to my version of it. The contortion has a certain irony, I'll give you that. But whatever, clearly it's a waste of everyone's time, particularly mine.
Err, good luck!
Apparently this thread is nothing more than a fun bet, except fun bets don't wade into the possibility of beating the house and talking about mathematical edges, which you want to do on your own terms whilst objecting to my version of it. The contortion has a certain irony, I'll give you that. But whatever, clearly it's a waste of everyone's time, particularly mine.
Err, good luck!
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
No I took your form with the nil nil bet as the example. You took a nearly 19 in 20 bet using evidence that gave nothing near those odds - the 1.5 goals per game.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
But 19 in 20 = 95%. Odds of 1.06 = 94.3% probability. How is that not near?
And i wasnt just looking at goals scored. One team is stronger then the other and had second highest goal scorer in the league. Who actually scored last night!
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
By their nature you'll win more than you lose. But you're not discovering value. And your system will be music to the bookies ' ears. I'll leave you to it.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It is near. That's my point. You should have been looking for something better than 1.1 at least. You're not finding value here.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Value is an expensive word in betting if you can't back a winner. I'd rather hit short odds that are on the mark then throw away a 33/1 slip while saying "at least I had value." Price was 1.06, I thought it should have been 1.05. The value was there.
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ffsear
Well-Known Member
Rather then fight about it, why not work together. Thats what I want this thread to be about.. A few of us hunting down those short odds bets and picking the best one for the day. If you find me 1.1 on over 0.5 goals then let me know because i'll be all over it.
Lets see if we can do 15 in a row!! Whos in?
