Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
tbh i'd be more impressed with the objective of this thread if it was turn £20 into £150 in 3 days.
Football betting and odds, discussion and other gambling stuff
- Thread starter ffsear
- Start date
mauvais
on reddit or something
So now you're going to turn £40 into £300 in 28 days, right?
Or is that not how you're choosing to look at it?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
it would be more exciting if it was £40 > £300 by midday saturday
mauvais
on reddit or something
I'd hope that armed robbery would at least turn up a cool grand.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Nope, simply starting from fresh.
mauvais
on reddit or something
Oh good, the magical reset!
Losses are forgotten and winnings are remembered, the gambler's worst trick.
Virtual Blue
ready
this is a great thread.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Well no because if I get to the £150 mark , my quitting point, I will only be £110 up. So losses are not forgotten. But how you interpret it is up to you of course.
mauvais
on reddit or something
You thought you had a plan to produce 650% return from an initial stake in a month. Perhaps not surprisingly, it failed after a mere two days, with a 100% loss. But, if it was a solid plan - apparently you think so, since you're repeating it - you should surely be able to achieve a return of £300 from £40, even after having lost £20 of that, because a decent plan would obviously incorporate risk. Or perhaps it's a shit idea that's only enabled by mental contortions. One or the other...
Athos
Well-Known Member
Or maybe it's not a mathematical exercise, but a bit of fun, which comes at a cost?
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Is everything ok at home ?
mauvais
on reddit or something
Then one might not want to lead into it with things like 'every month', 'almost dead cert' and 'pays for a month food shop'. Or plough in another £20 two days in to your 'monthly' fun. Because you know, that looks a lot like something...
If on the other hand you said, I like to go out into the garden on the first day of the month and set fire to banknotes until I don't have any left, we're all good. That, as evidenced by the KLF, would be art, and everyone likes art.
Athos
Well-Known Member
Why not have fun every month? And bets with those short prices are as near to dead certs as you can get. Why shouldn't he spend another £20, if he can afford it? Plenty of people spend more on beer, fags, records, or whatever. Not every gamber has a problem.
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
Beer and fags are excellent examples of things that people consume both for fun and as a deliberate, considered conscious choice, so Athos wins the thread.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Its just another £20 because I failed so early on (bloody Rooney penalty!!¬). If it failed after 10,11,12 bets then I'd quit until after next pay day. So i'd never lose more then £40 in one month.
Its just a bit of fun. I love watching sport and its always more fun when you have something riding on it.
It not really a case of "how much can i make", but more a case of "how long can i make this £20 last" with a cut off point of £150.
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Athos
Well-Known Member
Fair point! 
@selfI guess my point should have been that I dislike the moralistic undertone when some people talk about gambling. But, to be fair, I acknowledge it's far from without risk. Much like beer and fags, I guess.
mauvais
on reddit or something
How's that dead cert working out?
As an illustration, a very good return - certainly not a dead cert - in investing money in the stock market would give about 10% per annum; therefore a plan to extract 650% in a month probably tells you all you need to know.
By all means waste the money, god knows we all do that to a far greater extreme on some vice or other, but don't con yourself about the probability at play. So no, I don't care to moralise, I take issue with the logic & maths of it.
Athos
Well-Known Member
If you noticed, ffsear said "almost a dead cert", and I said "as near to ..." Neither of us believe in a dead cert, I'm sure.
If he enjoys it (and can afford it), who's to say it's any more a waste thatn, say horse riding, cricket or astonomy? You're missing the point, that it's not simply a plan to make money.
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
A youtube scrap between gentlemen of the road? P&P sometimes feels like that, but this conversation has been far more genteel.
mauvais
on reddit or something
I know full well that mine's a fruitless argument from the off, because one can always counter and escape it with 'it's just for fun' or pretty much any other manoeuvre of your choice. But so ultimately, albeit with different words, can the man who puts his pension and house on a sure fire stock tip, and there is no solid line between the two. Whatever - it is what it is, but probably also is what it looks like.
Athos
Well-Known Member
You realise there's a difference between risking your house and pension and spending £20 to £40 a month on an activity you enjoy (and occasionally making a profit), right?
mauvais
on reddit or something
Sure, but probably not what you think it is. Discipline and time
mauvais
on reddit or something
By the way, if you assume that a 1.07 odds bet has a 93.5% chance of winning, then to win 30 times on the trot has a probability of 13.3% (0.935^30).
Therefore if you play regularly, you win once every 7.5 times you try this, so you bet £150 to recoup £150. However you also have to pay commission, and the odds don't equate to actual probability.
Therefore if you play regularly, you win once every 7.5 times you try this, so you bet £150 to recoup £150. However you also have to pay commission, and the odds don't equate to actual probability.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Scratch this one. Leeds aren't scoring many and Blackburn have had a 0-0 in their last 3 and failed to score in their last 3. Gonna hunt for something better.
