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Football betting and odds, discussion and other gambling stuff

BCBlues said:
Nice one Sealion.
Shame you didn't bundle them all together but still a nice return.
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I usually stick to doubles but if the signs are there i will do trebles and fourfolds.I have never understood why people back mid table teams to win when they have drawn and lost the majority of games played.
 
Had a tenner on England, Iceland, Republic Ireland and Northern Ireland to draw and that poxy 95th minute England goal cost me a grand :(
 
I did two first goal scorer bets the weekend. £1 on Millwalls webster 25/1, he scored first ( a fucking o.g).:mad: and £1 on Skertel 33/1 he got sent off.:D
 
I've just spend the last few months learning data science, an online course. My final project is a football betting model.
I've come up with a fairly simple form-based analysis that is respectable, I think, although I haven't actually compared it against the bookmakers yet. It's crunched every premiership match from the second season onwards.

I am hoping to make a living doing this stuff...
 
Sea Lion said:
Did a fourfold got three right.:mad:
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Walsall (at Northampton) done me out of £60 on the both teams to score coupon.
I like that bet because your bet stays alive right to the end.
Yesterday only three teams failed to score in League 2 and in the Scottish Div 2 every team scored. Even Annan Athletic managed to do what Walsall couldnt :D
 
Holy number-crunching!

I've just submitted my data science project which was a premiership football betting model. Over the course of the last 18 seasons, it was calling the match about 52.5% of the time. I deliberately kept the model really simple and it just uses predictors from league table information.

This might not seem amazing as predicting a home win for every match will give you about 46%

However... it seems the bookmakers only get it right 53% of the time.

I might not be far off :)
 
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Is there really a science to football betting? I have more success going by current form rather than historic stats.
 
Sea Lion said:
Is there really a science to football betting? I have more success going by current form rather than historic stats.
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Well there's all kinds of approaches you can take, art or science... if you are having success fair play to you! It would surprise me though if there was a long-term winning system which was just based on recent match information with no human judgment re: injuries, team changes etc
 
Sea Lion said:
Is there really a science to football betting? I have more success going by current form rather than historic stats.
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If it's of interest... from the research I did, my opinion is that form from more than two seasons ago is not useful. For my model the previous season's results was pretty important. The season before that chipped in much less
 
Sea Lion said:
Is there really a science to football betting? I have more success going by current form rather than historic stats.
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Im with you on this, even an individual players form can dictate the scores, Tammy Abrahams at Bristol City for example. Bang in form and won that game for City at Fulham.
 
BCBlues said:
Im with you on this, even an individual players form can dictate the scores, Tammy Abrahams at Bristol City for example. Bang in form and won that game for City at Fulham.
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Yep.I have a mate that uses charts and graphs on previous fixtures and results to help find a bet.He never wins a Carrot.:D
 
Sea Lion said:
Yep.I have a mate that uses charts and graphs on previous fixtures and results to help find a bet.He never wins a Carrot.:D
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Same here, my mate was in a scientific syndicate that once predicted a score of Liverpool 7 Tottenham 11 :D

Today's betting was a personal disaster. I had 11 out of 12 on BTTS. Guess which overpaid bunch of tosspots let me down at the Emirates :(

I dunno if I'm any more gutted than you though Sea Lion after todays result and who it was who scored the injury time pen.
You couldnt make it up could you :(
 
BCBlues said:
Today's betting was a personal disaster. I had 11 out of 12 on BTTS. Guess which overpaid bunch of tosspots let me down at the Emirates
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I have no sympathy for anyone that puts 12 teams in a bet.:D Never put your team in an acca, it's double the pain if they let the bet down.
BCBlues said:
I dunno if I'm any more gutted than you though Sea Lion after todays result
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I knew it(there goal) was coming mate and we are shit under Harris so no complaints here.I've been going to long now to get pissed off when we lose.On the other hand my son looked like he wanted to chin someone when they scored:D.
 
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