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Extreme Weather Watch

Can see that Spanish plume strongly suggested on the overnight operational model runs. Latest GFS operational still has it but has been pushing it back a little from Wednesday to Thursday to Friday with successive runs (getting closer, temporally, to the ECM). ECMWF also picks it up but waiting for their, comparable, next runs to drop. A lot of the ensemble runs of both indicating it too now.
GFS op 06z10Jun2022 850hPa temperature anomaly (18z17Jun2022). GFS ensemble 06z10Jun2022, London, 2m temperature and precipitation.
ECM op 00z10Jun2022 850hPa temperature anomaly (18z17Jun2022). ECM ensemble 00z10Jun2022, London, 2m temperature and precipitation.
Right now the GFS has it rocking up sooner and departing earlier than the ECM (by about 24 hours).
GFS op 06z10Jun2022 850hPa temperature anomaly (00z19Jun2022). ECM op 00z10Jun2022 850hPa temperature anomaly (00z19Jun2022).
Cool start to next week; wetter, cooler in the N/NW, drier and warmer in the S/SE. Temperature climbing in the south from midweek to the weekend, perhaps with attendant thundery breakdowns.
 
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Almost all GFS and ECM ensemble runs now appear to have this nailed on (for ~Thu/Fri/Sat), along with the attendant downpours (quite possibly thundery breakdowns once the heat builds; high CAPE indicated on the near-continent Fri/Sat). The only difference is that the GFS (operational and ensemble mean) currently puts the period roughly 18 hours ahead of the ECM. Meanwhile, temperatures in southern Spain and Portugal have nudged into the low 40C range today.
 
Feels like we're seeing the desertification of Europe happen in real time. The northward expansion of the Sahara.
 
Artaxerxes said:
Organs start to cook at 47 degrees apparently :(
Click to expand...
Certainly seeing the wet bulb temps reaching up to high 20's/30C this early in the summer in SW France is pretty shocking. Anything above that and all the human body can do is lie in the shade and rehydrate.

1655539496538.png
 
In June of 1992 in turin the highest temperature seen all month was 27 degrees, for one day. In June of 2022 so far all but 3 days have been hotter than that, with eight days - - so far!! - - over 30 degrees.
 
If it is bearing down on you (no lateral movement), and there is time, move orthogonally away from the track and seek shelter underground or, if that's not an option, internal basement/ground floor rooms (better structural integrity) with minimal window area (hence toilets). A mattress pulled overhead might help too.
 
Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future hold?
Nature. 23 June 2022
An ongoing La Niña event that has contributed to flooding in eastern Australia and exacerbated droughts in the United States and East Africa could persist into 2023, according to the latest forecasts. The occurrence of two consecutive La Niña winters in the Northern Hemisphere is common, but having three in a row is relatively rare. A ‘triple dip’ La Niña — lasting three years in a row — has happened only twice since 1950.
Click to expand...

This particularly long La Niña is probably just a random blip in the climate, scientists say. But some researchers are warning that climate change could make La Niña-like conditions more likely in future. “We are stacking the odds higher for these triple events coming along,” says Matthew England, a physical oceanographer at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. England and others are now working to reconcile discrepancies between climate data and the output of major climate models — efforts that could clarify what is in store for the planet.
Click to expand...

More La Niña events would increase the chance of flooding in southeast Asia, boost the risk of droughts and wildfires in the southwestern United States, and create a different pattern of hurricanes, cyclones and monsoons across the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, as well as give rise to other regional changes.
Click to expand...
 
Fuck.

Multiple fires have broken out across the south of England and Wales as an intense heatwave takes over the UK.

Parts of London, Kent, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire have all seen wildfires erupt at as temperatures reach record highs of 40C in parts of the country.

www.independent.co.uk

Wildfires break out across UK as record heatwave rages

Fires broke out across London, Kent, Cornwall and Pembrokshire on the UK’s ‘hottest day ever’
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
Jeff Robinson said:
Fuck.

Multiple fires have broken out across the south of England and Wales as an intense heatwave takes over the UK.

Parts of London, Kent, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire have all seen wildfires erupt at as temperatures reach record highs of 40C in parts of the country.

www.independent.co.uk

Wildfires break out across UK as record heatwave rages

Fires broke out across London, Kent, Cornwall and Pembrokshire on the UK’s ‘hottest day ever’
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
Click to expand...
I was on that beach in Pembrokeshire on my holidays last month :(
 
SW France, wildfires getting increasingly intense. A campfire burnt to the ground.

More than 32,000 people have had to be evacuated.

 
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