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Egypt anti-government protests grow

But the political arithmetic does not work. In 2011, the revolutionaries needed the Brothers to topple Mubarak; in 2013, they needed Mubarak loyalists and salafis to toss out the Brothers. What coalition can now form to tackle the structures of inequity, arbitrary rule and social strife in Egypt? In the near term, none leaps to mind.

Also it might be better stated "in 2011, the revolutionaries needed the military to topple Mubarak" - that's a more accurate assessment, because Tantawi became the prime mover when he gave Mubarak (that time in secret) an ultimatum (on or around 6 Feb) go within the week or the army will take you over by force and you won't even have the sympathy of avoiding violence.
The Muslim brotherhood - hard as it is to credit it now with the present violence - trailed the military in 2011 in terms of its 'support' for the population represented by the Square. Of course both in turn sought to exercise power over the Square by claiming to represent it - one from having made Mubarak stand down, the other because it won elections that were "the freest" in forty years.


Well even in my numerous arguments with you I wouldn't go quite as far as to say the revolutionaries needed the Brothers to topple Mubarak. I would have no hesitation in saying they needed the MB to not behave in certain ways in order for the ouster of Mubarak to succeed, since a number of things the MB could have done may have enabled a far quicker counter-revolution. For example if the MB had attacked the non-MB protesters then the state & military could have stepped in slightly differently, told a different story and given the people a form of democratic choice that had different limitations. Or other scenarios that could have unfolded if the state had been able to get the 'MB as bogeymen' phenomenon to work properly at the time.

And if by Brothers they mean members, you already know my view that at least one some days in some locations, they were a help. And no I would not care to put a number on it, I didn't criticise your numbers because I had my own fixed numbers in mind. I believe it does a disservice to those involved to attempt to put a number on things that were fluid and that I have no reasonable prospect of accurately measuring.
 
The Mb were the only really organised political group that was nationwide that had survived murbaraks regime off course they were going to do well in any election.
Unfortunatly they massively misjudged what they could get away with.

Bit like certain political types like to stich things up in backroom deals then occasionaly if they overstep the mark look aghast when the majority of people call them on it.
 
Well even in my numerous arguments with you I wouldn't go quite as far as to say the revolutionaries needed the Brothers to topple Mubarak. I would have no hesitation in saying they needed the MB to not behave in certain ways in order for the ouster of Mubarak to succeed, since a number of things the MB could have done may have enabled a far quicker counter-revolution. For example if the MB had attacked the non-MB protesters then the state & military could have stepped in slightly differently, told a different story and given the people a form of democratic choice that had different limitations. Or other scenarios that could have unfolded if the state had been able to get the 'MB as bogeymen' phenomenon to work properly at the time.

'revolution' and 'counter-revolution' from a working-class perspective surely run at the same time in parallel. There's no discrete time marker.

And if by Brothers they mean members, you already know my view that at least one some days in some locations, they were a help. And no I would not care to put a number on it, I didn't criticise your numbers because I had my own fixed numbers in mind.

Individual professionals in the army off-duty also took part in the demonstrations against Mubarak, but they were not at all the overpowering component.


I believe it does a disservice to those involved to attempt to put a number on things that were fluid and that I have no reasonable prospect of accurately measuring.

How is it a disservice? Some people - again, I'd point to Brotherhood - would rather it not be investigated so that their line can be spun 'all democratic people took an equal and/or immeasurable part in the protest against Mubarak, then Morsi won the election beating all opponents, hence all the changes he implemented/didn't implement must be respected, all must respect the legitimacy of the revolution'.

Just as they are spinning the line that they are 'against coups', even though they in their Mursi year of rule collaborated closely with President Bashir in Sudan, who led a coup to come to power in 1989, against (mostly non-Muslim) Ethiopia and South Sudan.
 
On the deep state aspect. The ihwans chose to go into government with them, no one forced them to.
They could have resisted against the army at the time and refused to go into government until a proper purge of Mubarak officials were conducted, although in actual fact they didn't want this deep thorough purge because it would disclose the corrupt nature their own wing of capital had with the President Mubarak era.

All too often the 'deep state' is the wail of the moderate Islamists whenever things just don't work out. Over the past year, it was asserted by some of their supporters the Shiites were killed by deep state operatives to sabotage Egypt's harmony between religions as secured by the Brotherhood, others suggested that textile worker protests in Mahalla around in early spring were the deep state in operation, the Brotherhood prosecuters pronounced that a series of civil groups were busy working with the deep state.
 
AlJazeera obviously have their own reasons for focussing on this right now and spinning it in a particular direction, but its always interesting to see what US funding has been going to different groups under the auspices of promoting democracy.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/07/2013710113522489801.html

Obviously the groups are loosely tied to US interests, and yes all have some measure of doubts about them.

What's stunning in that article is this ending:

Esam Neizamy, an independent researcher into foreign funding in Egypt, and a member of the country's Revolutionary Trustees, a group set up to protect the 2011 revolution.

The Revolutionary Trustees were an odd group (where does their funding come from?)
who as soon as the military announced they would take over from Mubarak stated that the time for Tahrir was over, that they would enter into a dialogue with the army, ie they sought to demobilise the protests to allow the Brotherhood to negotiate with Tantawi.

The NGOs referenced are exactly about "developing media capacity for political parties"
take for instance the Ibn Khaldoon Centre which is attacked as being a US stooge because one of its participant sociologist Saad Eddin Ibrahim was anti-Morsi. It is in fact a research institute that investigates the state of women, examines poverty and society.
That someone happens to be anti-Morsi by the time you get to April or May 2013 is hardly surprising considering events in Egypt. He's not a vector for a US sponsored coup as the suggestin seems to be.

Interestingly the article also doesn't refer to many details about the arrest of the NGO workers, only noting US-led disapproval of the arrests.


This is also a bit odd. The Hand in Hand for Egypt Association was presumably set up with funding from the non-Islamist wing of capital, and it is a general liberal association that does tours and visits between different religious origin teenagers in Egypt.

Pointing out Usama Ghazali Harb has "roots in the Mubarak regime" is pretty disingenous.

It is true that he collaborated with the regime between 1995-2006 at the time that it was most promising of reform - both economically and politically.

As a student, Harb was a member of the Socialist Youth Organization since its establishment in 1965. The organization was affiliated with the Arab Socialist Union, officially the ruling party in Egypt between 1962 and 1978. In 1972, he was arrested on charges of belonging to an organization (the Arab Pioneers) “that seeks to overthrow the regime.” As a result, his mandatory military service was terminated.

He was again arrested in 1975 as a member of the Communist Party, during a wave of arrests that targeted leftist and socialist forces. His third arrest came during Cairo’s 1977 Bread Uprising. He was released in the late 1970s after which he focused on his academic career until 1995, when then president Hosni Mubarak first appointed him as a member of Egypt’s Shura Council, the upper house of parliament.

In 2002, he was appointed to the notorious Policies Committee of the now dissolved National Democratic Party (NDP) of ousted president Hosni Mubarak, which stood behind Egypt’s drive towards economic liberalization and privatization during the last decade. However, he resigned from the Policies Committee in 2006, allegedly because he objected to the NDP-sponsored amendment of Article 76 of the constitution. The amendment reinforced the NDP’s monopoly over political power by making it difficult for competitive opposition candidates to get their name on the presidential election ballot.

In 2007, Harb joined forces with Yehia Al-Gamal to establish the Democratic Front Party, initially called the Justice and Freedom Party. The party adopts a liberal orientation, calling for a civil state and a free – if regulated – market. Later the same year, he was elected party chair.

However Brotherhood and Islamist figures also collaborated with the regime aswell, not least in the MInistry for Religious Affairs.

Here is the reference to Hand in Hand for Egypt, which, once again, did not play any role in the anti-Morsi protests, he himself was, probably on the level of being Coptic, anti-Muslim Brotherhood.


Michael Meunier is a frequent guest on TV channels that opposed Morsi. Head of the Al-Haya Party, Meunier - a dual US-Egyptian citizen - has quietly collected US funding through his NGO, Hand In Hand for Egypt Association.

Meunier's organisation was founded by some of the most vehement opposition figures, including Egypt's richest man and well-known Coptic Christian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, Tarek Heggy, an oil industry executive, Salah Diab, Halliburton's partner in Egypt, and Usama Ghazali Harb, a politician with roots in the Mubarak regime and a frequent US embassy contact.

More generally, we should also remember that the Brotherhood has been funded over the years by donations and support from Muslim minded conservative Gulf states keen to raise an opposition in Egypt that would bring it back down to earth in the region. For instance after the 1992 earthquake instead of making donations to the government, gave them to the Brotherhood charity arms.

None of this means I approve of the liberals mentioned in the piece, it's that simply sometimes social and related bodies accept money from Western sources in the region - that's true of the Kurdish language groups and the Muslim human rights movement in Turkey both from EU funding.

The West likes to hedge its bets where there is deep political controversy keeping as onside as it can with both players, as it did in the Morsi era - with the government (Brotherhood) aligned from engineering deals to university collaboration, and also with the non-Brotherhood with funding for research and social institutes.
Brotherhood
 
On the deep state aspect. The ihwans chose to go into government with them, no one forced them to.
They could have resisted against the army at the time and refused to go into government until a proper purge of Mubarak officials were conducted, although in actual fact they didn't want this deep thorough purge because it would disclose the corrupt nature their own wing of capital had with the President Mubarak era.


I suspect they did not want to reform the deep state in a meaningful way because they wanted to keep all the tools of the state for themselves and just change the people directing them. Why they thought they could do this is beyond me, it was a stupid miscalculation that did not take account of the resistance they would face from various departments and people at different levels.
 
How is it a disservice? Some people - again, I'd point to Brotherhood - would rather it not be investigated so that their line can be spun 'all democratic people took an equal and/or immeasurable part in the protest against Mubarak, then Morsi won the election beating all opponents, hence all the changes he implemented/didn't implement must be respected, all must respect the legitimacy of the revolution'.


Your claims were hardly an investigation. Neither were mine. I am no fan of either the MB narrative or the ones that seek to excessively marginalise their role.

As for that AlJazeera piece, their motivations are obvious. The US like to hedge their bets and gain influence wherever they can. Thats one of the reasons we have the situation right now of all many different sides for backing other sides.

Meanwhile the US has publicly joined in with the calls started by Germany for Morsi to be released.
 
Ha ha, even AlJazeera can't help but point out the ineptitude and lack of credibility of MB propaganda.

(from their live blog at http://blogs.aljazeera.com/liveblog/topic/egypt-21121 )

You'll notice that many of the protesters are wearing jackets and sweaters. If they don't exactly appear dressed for July in Egypt, that's because the photo wasn't taken this week: A Google image search reveals that it was taken in November, in Mansoura. [Click here to see the original]
The Brotherhood and its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, have repeatedly posted fake photos of protests since June 30.
Earlier this week, senior FJP officials shared a photo of Mohamed Aboutrika, one of the best-known Egyptian footballers, and claimed he was praying at the pro-Morsi rally in Nasr City. The photo was actually taken in February 2011, on the morning after Hosni Mubarak resigned.
They've also shared photos of dead children, claiming they were killed in the Republican Guard HQ attack on Monday. Those photos were taken in January, and they're from Syria, not Egypt.

:facepalm: :D
 
Your claims were hardly an investigation. Neither were mine. I am no fan of either the MB narrative or the ones that seek to excessively marginalise their role.

As for that AlJazeera piece, their motivations are obvious. The US like to hedge their bets and gain influence wherever they can. Thats one of the reasons we have the situation right now of all many different sides for backing other sides.

Meanwhile the US has publicly joined in with the calls started by Germany for Morsi to be released.

I didn't say they were an investigation, but from what some would consider a biased source, but to me a more trustworthy one.

You suggested the thing being analysed and - broken down into intensity of participation on some numerical basis - was not on. I hope someone will be able to understand and record it better rather than just looking at egypt memorial which doesn't have all the dead anyway - but it seems unlikely at present with the coup and the polarised reality.
 
I suspect they did not want to reform the deep state in a meaningful way because they wanted to keep all the tools of the state for themselves and just change the people directing them. Why they thought they could do this is beyond me, it was a stupid miscalculation that did not take account of the resistance they would face from various departments and people at different levels.

I was talking about a purge not a reform. They could have tried to get rid of the old lot of intelligence officers and special war office operatives, kept the roles but filled them with independent or Brotherhood allied ones, but they didn't.

We've had enough experience of Islamism in power : in Sudan, in Swat, in Turkey, in Gaza, in Tunisia to see that (apart from a normal competition between wings of capital which the energy sector in Egypt is - fewer but more powerful non-Islamists versus more numerous but weaker Islamists) there is no overall, automatic deep state plot against Islamists, there's an attempt to adapt its rougher edges to continue the goodies, a few marginal plotters maybe but no overall dynamic.

The idea of a deep state thrust against the Brotherhood and no one else from day one June 2012 doesn't accord with reality. The Brotherhood were given their chance, fuel problems only started to take hold in 2013 in part as a result of people stocking up before the price increases, they weren't there in anything like the same degree in 2012.

This from the Brotherhood doesn't make sense as an explanation: "Different circles in the state, from the storage facilities to the cars that transport petrol products to the gas stations, all participated in creating the crisis."
Why didn't the Brotherhood do something about these types rather than go after the NGO workers and those who wanted new trade unions?

As for non-functioning police, there were probably some non-cooperative chiefs from the outset. But the disloyalty - as much as it was - became more apparent as the months wore on and the police began to be viewed as an extension of the governing party, many simply didn't want to serve as a governing party extension.

I expect the reason the army is taking on a "security" role right now, is because it cannot wholly rely on the police either. The killing of the protestors outside the Republican Club was something crazy opening fire without trying to use the standard police tools of water cannons and tear gas. Soldiers are definitely assuming the mantle more than police.

Also, elbows, who put up that contradictory slogan about not secular not religious?
 
I was talking about a purge not a reform. They could have tried to get rid of the old lot of intelligence officers and special war office operatives, kept the roles but filled them with independent or Brotherhood allied ones, but they didn't.

Generally you can only fill military roles with people from a military background for a number of reasons. There are indications that they thought they had put enough people in place, or at least the best they could manage, but they were wrong (see the post the other day about how al-Sisi formed a relationship with Morsi the sucker).

We've had enough experience of Islamism in power : in Sudan, in Swat, in Turkey, in Gaza, in Tunisia to see that (apart from a normal competition between wings of capital which the energy sector in Egypt is - fewer but more powerful non-Islamists versus more numerous but weaker Islamists) there is no overall, automatic deep state plot against Islamists, there's an attempt to adapt its rougher edges to continue the goodies, a few marginal plotters maybe but no overall dynamic.

Generalisations and what happened in countries like Turkey in terms of diminishing the power of the military cannot be automatically applied to Egypt. There were clearly all manner of interests in Egypt that decided the MB in power was an outcome they couldn't live with.

The idea of a deep state thrust against the Brotherhood and no one else from day one June 2012 doesn't accord with reality. The Brotherhood were given their chance, fuel problems only started to take hold in 2013 in part as a result of people stocking up before the price increases, they weren't there in anything like the same degree in 2012.

Some may have been prepared to genuinely give them a chance for a while. Others were likely biding their time, giving the MB only enough rope to hang themselves.

This from the Brotherhood doesn't make sense as an explanation: "Different circles in the state, from the storage facilities to the cars that transport petrol products to the gas stations, all participated in creating the crisis."
Why didn't the Brotherhood do something about these types rather than go after the NGO workers and those who wanted new trade unions?

Because NGO workers and independent trade unionists were much easier targets who they also had obvious reasons to go after. Not so easy to purge the state apparatus when there are so many levels at which it can mess with you, especially if you are relying on the military to keep up their end of the bargain but they betray you. Imagine coming to power in the UK and then finding yourself repeatedly thwarted by civil servants, not exactly an unheard of concept and Egypt clearly had its own version of this with much energy, high stakes and greater polarisation.

Do not forget that the MB went after the judiciary and came a cropper as a result. Altogether too crude an approach, and one that hollowed out their claims to legitimacy in a manner that has now been successfully used against them.

The MB's attempts were entirely inadequate, but they certainly tried. They did not have enough support within important segments of society to purge effectively in a short space of time, and they played their hand badly. And they could not rely on popular support not just because of those conspiring against them, but because their own agenda hardly inspired. They made the wrong alliances (that probably seemed right at the time) and gave those who could perhaps have helped them no reason to do so.

As for non-functioning police, there were probably some non-cooperative chiefs from the outset. But the disloyalty - as much as it was - became more apparent as the months wore on and the police began to be viewed as an extension of the governing party, many simply didn't want to serve as a governing party extension.

Given the role of the police under Mubarak, how hated they were and how their reputation was immensely tarnished that's one of the most stupid things you've said.

I expect the reason the army is taking on a "security" role right now, is because it cannot wholly rely on the police either. The killing of the protestors outside the Republican Club was something crazy opening fire without trying to use the standard police tools of water cannons and tear gas. Soldiers are definitely assuming the mantle more than police.

Water cannons and tear gas lost their effectiveness very early on in the uprising against Mubarak. They still achieved some results, but not enough. Things quickly moved on to live-fire of various varieties. And its absurd to even speak of standard police tools in Egypt given that back in 2011 we quickly saw many 'non-standard' scenes such as police throwing rocks, running people over in their vehicles. Let alone the next attempts to replace fear of the police with fear of non-uniformed thugs, the battle of the camels, and then finally the army.

If we were making any assumptions based on 'standards' we might have assumed that the first thing any side that won power and had some control over the state would have tried to do after that mess would be to, at the very least, attempt to restore the image of the police to at least a certain extent. Even if it involved fairly empty gestures like renaming them, giving them a new uniform, paying lipserive to new 'police ethics' and training, command structures etc. But at no point was any serious attempt to do this made, not during 'interim periods' when the military had overt political power nor once the MB got in.

So the army has been taking a security role for a very long time. And as we saw when Tahrir was cleared that time and protesters were beaten, stomped on and dragged into piles like garbage, the military thought it better to do that than to protect its own image. So its really not surprising that they shot a load of MB protesters the other day, especially as it happened near a military installation. Plus its quite likely that they wanted to let everyone how how deadly they could be, either to attempt to restore the key state weapon of fear, or otherwise influence the direction the MB go in post-coup.

The police have not been entirely non-existent since the MB got in, I expect its been a mixed picture that has also varied by region. And there are several reasons other than deliberately doing nothing as part of a plot against the MB for them failing to deal with situations. Most obviously, the same inability to deal with angry protests or violence as they had in 2011, outnumbered and on the back foot, with a lack of motivation thrown in for good measure.

Also, elbows, who put up that contradictory slogan about not secular not religious?

Someone that understood that at the time it was important to have unity among disparate groups, with a message did not turn off people whose support was important, or play into the hands of the regime. The message does not have to make perfect sense, it can have inherent contradictions. Indeed thats the point - to paper over those contradictions at that important moment even though the contradiction will be exposed in the end.
 
Generally you can only fill military roles with people from a military background for a number of reasons. There are indications that they thought they had put enough people in place, or at least the best they could manage, but they were wrong (see the post the other day about how al-Sisi formed a relationship with Morsi the sucker).

Well indeed the Brotherhood failed in its attempt to play its course.




Generalisations and what happened in countries like Turkey in terms of diminishing the power of the military cannot be automatically applied to Egypt. There were clearly all manner of interests in Egypt that decided the MB in power was an outcome they couldn't live with.

Which interests were these?
Most non-Islamist capitalists decided that the MB in power was something they couldn't live with. Only when they failed to revive stability and normalcy did they not mind about a coup.

Some may have been prepared to genuinely give them a chance for a while. Others were likely biding their time, giving the MB only enough rope to hang themselves.

This makes no sense, if they were opposed to the MB, why not pull out all the stops far far earlier before the election? Before the threat took effect? If they were so sure the MB would hang themselves



Because NGO workers and independent trade unionists were much easier targets who they also had obvious reasons to go after. Not so easy to purge the state apparatus when there are so many levels at which it can mess with you, especially if you are relying on the military to keep up their end of the bargain but they betray you. Imagine coming to power in the UK and then finding yourself repeatedly thwarted by civil servants, not exactly an unheard of concept and Egypt clearly had its own version of this with much energy, high stakes and greater polarisation.


Do not forget that the MB went after the judiciary and came a cropper as a result. Altogether too crude an approach, and one that hollowed out their claims to legitimacy in a manner that has now been successfully used against them.

This is an incorrect picture. The reason the Brotherhood's steps were so resented were not because 'hell no it's a purge' but because the judges they were purging were the more anti-Mubarak and pro-secular worldview ones. They were doing a selective purge and then attacking opponents of the selective nature as backward not wanting democratic process. Al Masry Al Youm has some sparse articles in English on it.



Given the role of the police under Mubarak, how hated they were and how their reputation was immensely tarnished that's one of the most stupid things you've said.

Yes they were hated but they were hated whilst being equal dealers in arrests not baulking at arresting Islamist, liberal, socialist and Salafi alike. The Brotherhood government (and perhaps during the military transition too) meant they were arresting only liberals and socialists not Islamists. That pressaged a wider fracture in the police - some were happy to be Brotherhood enforcers, others not. Most - perhaps all - were content to be Mubarak enforcers, until they came unstuck and were forced to examine perhaps for the first time the reasons they were hated.

In October - December 2011 under the military transition, during their strikes they were leading calls for their service to be purged of Mubarak loyalists and reformed. http://www.theegyptreport.com/2011/10/26/police-demonstrations/

Some did not want to be government police.


Water cannons and tear gas lost their effectiveness very early on in the uprising against Mubarak. They still achieved some results, but not enough. Things quickly moved on to live-fire of various varieties. And its absurd to even speak of standard police tools in Egypt given that back in 2011 we quickly saw many 'non-standard' scenes such as police throwing rocks, running people over in their vehicles. Let alone the next attempts to replace fear of the police with fear of non-uniformed thugs, the battle of the camels, and then finally the army.

1 Police throw rocks back at people who have thrown all across the world from Greece to Indonesia. Non-uniformed people with the advantage of secrecy likewise have been in action in Turkey, in Bangladesh (against different crowds of protestors broadly secular and Islamist respectively). As have police running over limbs to incapacitate the road blockers but not kill. The point is that in the new situation in July 2013, the Egyptian military did not use police measures.

If we were making any assumptions based on 'standards' we might have assumed that the first thing any side that won power and had some control over the state would have tried to do after that mess would be to, at the very least, attempt to restore the image of the police to at least a certain extent. Even if it involved fairly empty gestures like renaming them, giving them a new uniform, paying lipserive to new 'police ethics' and training, command structures etc. But at no point was any serious attempt to do this made, not during 'interim periods' when the military had overt political power nor once the MB got in.

There were a raft of name changes. The State Security Investigation had its name changed to the National security structure and a sort of purge conducted.
On human rights, this was started on by the MB and there was foreign funding to specifically help it along. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22482536

The military did very little during its period.

So the army has been taking a security role for a very long time. And as we saw when Tahrir was cleared that time and protesters were beaten, stomped on and dragged into piles like garbage, the military thought it better to do that than to protect its own image. So its really not surprising that they shot a load of MB protesters the other day, especially as it happened near a military installation. Plus its quite likely that they wanted to let everyone how how deadly they could be, either to attempt to restore the key state weapon of fear, or otherwise influence the direction the MB go in post-coup.

1. What is the direction you think the army was trying to persuade the MB to go in by opening without warning extremely wide scatter-gun live bullet fire like rain, killing 70+ and injuring 400 of its unarmed supporters? You've written an account but not actually provided the key thing you've taken as assumed.

The army has attempted to put behind its past role as Mubarak's enforcer by Sissi speaking of past mistakes and urging new dawn for Egypt. The brutality - yes is a given (not just by the behaviour of 2011 but by it in 2008 and all the way from the 1977 events on) but the particular response suggests a lack of preparation and contingency planning, unless you're assuming something which could well be true (ie back to question 1.).
It's out in the middle of Cairo, not in Sinai or wherever. Such a massacre weakened the army side with stringent criticisms of the army from coup-supporter.

Someone that understood that at the time it was important to have unity among disparate groups, with a message did not turn off people whose support was important, or play into the hands of the regime. The message does not have to make perfect sense, it can have inherent contradictions. Indeed thats the point - to paper over those contradictions at that important moment even though the contradiction will be exposed in the end.

Or someone who tried to paint the events as a genuine secular (liberal/socialist) and religious united front when there was no real such thing and the input was one way.
That's why I am asking who put it up.
(The regime was blackening the protesters anyway.)
 
friend of mine lives in Egypt and is back for a few weeks (funeral and some stuff). she says the UK seems to be very pro Morsi in comparison to Egypt.

cant say I see it myself, I think most of the uk is pro DILLIGAF?


she is English btw but has lived in Egypt for past 9 or 10 years. from what she says most of the people there support what the army has done and that things feel much safer since the "coup"


not saying this is the actual case but its what I have been told
 
Interesting point from a HRW worker in Egypt:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/12/opinion/motaparthy-egypt-accountability


Police officers have yet to be held accountable for excessive use of force over the past two and a half years. Police killed at least 846 protestors in January 2011. But of 38 officers sent to trial for the killings, only two have been sentenced and jailed.

Now Egypt has once again descended into spasms of violence. Over the last two weeks in Alexandria and Cairo, armed Muslim Brotherhood supporters have fired automatic weapons on anti-Morsy protesters who are armed with rocks and Molotov cocktails while police and army have stood and watched.

Neighborhood protection groups in both cities have engaged in hours-long combat with armed Morsy supporters who marched through their communities damaging property and harassing passersby.

In the grim corridors of Cairo's public hospitals and the dusty courtyard of the city's morgue, grieving relatives and friends described watching army and police officers use deadly force against demonstrators in front of the Republican Guard headquarters, where the deposed president was allegedly being held. Fifty-one people were killed on the morning of July 8.
Videos show who is under attack in Egypt Egypt after the coup Youths' killing ignites outrage in Egypt Morsy's son to his dad: 'Remain defiant'
The pattern that emerges is this: In every instance, police and sometimes army troops have acted in a partisan fashion, using what appears to be largely unwarranted force against mostly unarmed Brotherhood supporters at sit-ins, yet doing little to intervene when opposing camps clash violently.
A group of outraged women in Manial, a leafy island in the Nile, told me how during a 10-hour street battle they repeatedly called police, the army -- anyone who could possibly offer protection -- while their sons and husbands fought Brotherhood supporters with paving stones and Molotovs.

Ahmed, a 27-year-old wearing jeans still spattered with blood from the night before, told me: "The Brotherhood came in aggressively, hitting people, cars and shops so that no one would get in their way." They entered the neighborhood around 8 p.m., he said, but police only arrived at midnight, stayed for about half an hour, then retreated, though the fighting continued until 6 a.m.

From his Alexandria hospital bed, Salah Haggag, an independent video journalist, showed me footage in which he followed a high-ranking police general around the Sidi Gaber train station as machine gun fire from Brotherhood supporters echoed outside, asking the commander to do his job, to call in reinforcements. The general waved him aside while talking frantically on his mobile phone. The police appeared to arrive, then left a few minutes later. Haggag's video footage ends when Brotherhood supporters shoot him in the leg.

I think the police are attempting to create the aura or image of 'police together with the people' and Tahrir. This chimes in with twitter reports of police doing a public relations job about "protecting the people from the Brotherhood" but doing little in practice.
On the morning of July 8 I passed through Tahrir Square where the organizers of Tamarod, who mobilized the initial protests on June 30 that brought millions into the streets, had called for a sit-in. I saw police officers handing out juice boxes and snacks to passersby alongside a vehicle emblazoned with the slogan, "The People's Police."
If police had handed out juice cartons in Jan-Feb 2011 they probably would have not been chased away, in spite of their many crimes. The police aren't attacking Tahrir so there is no counter-response.
Only 2 police imprisoned for the 25 Jan 2011 revolution is very low, after Brotherhood promises for people not to protest about it under SCAF but wait for democratic rule.
 
This makes no sense, if they were opposed to the MB, why not pull out all the stops far far earlier before the election? Before the threat took effect? If they were so sure the MB would hang themselves

Because at that point the splits in society were most notable along pro-anti Mubarak regime lines. A move against the MB at that point could not have been painted as protecting the revolution, whereas now it can. Rigging the election would have been a huge risk. The MB had not yet had a chance to demonstrate how shit they would be in power.

The most vocal anti-MB people were pulling out al the stops from day one and would surely have liked to thwart the MB at an earlier stage, but they could not. Many of them would have been much happier if Shafiq had won in the first place, but he did not.

This is an incorrect picture. The reason the Brotherhood's steps were so resented were not because 'hell no it's a purge' but because the judges they were purging were the more anti-Mubarak and pro-secular worldview ones. They were doing a selective purge and then attacking opponents of the selective nature as backward not wanting democratic process. Al Masry Al Youm has some sparse articles in English on it.

At no point have I claimed that the MB had the best interests of the revolution at heart. So of course the focus of their purges were heavily slanted towards getting rid of those deemed most incompatible with MB values rather than other criteria. Having said that I cannot simply accept that the judges they purged were the more anti-Mubarak ones without doing further research. I have no problem accepting that one of the reasons the MB got in a fight with the judiciary was that the judiciary stood in the way of the MBs very crude interpretation of democracy (we won so we can do what we like without needing partners and compromise), but the justice system was still full of people who were comfortable with the old regime, so the simplest narratives on this front do not suffice.

Some did not want to be government police.

Yes, but of those plenty would be likely to shift their stance depending on exactly who the government were.

The point is that in the new situation in July 2013, the Egyptian military did not use police measures.

You say that as if you find it surprising?

1. What is the direction you think the army was trying to persuade the MB to go in by opening without warning extremely wide scatter-gun live bullet fire like rain, killing 70+ and injuring 400 of its unarmed supporters? You've written an account but not actually provided the key thing you've taken as assumed.

The army has attempted to put behind its past role as Mubarak's enforcer by Sissi speaking of past mistakes and urging new dawn for Egypt. The brutality - yes is a given (not just by the behaviour of 2011 but by it in 2008 and all the way from the 1977 events on) but the particular response suggests a lack of preparation and contingency planning, unless you're assuming something which could well be true (ie back to question 1.).
It's out in the middle of Cairo, not in Sinai or wherever. Such a massacre weakened the army side with stringent criticisms of the army from coup-supporter.

The criticism they received has not been all that stringent in my opinion. And its the sort of criticism the military didn't seem that bothered by in the past either, they aren't going to let that aspect of negative propaganda stand in their way of using the tools of violence that are the ultimate source of their power.

As for why they did it, there are a number of possibilities. I would like to know more about the exact circumstances at the start of the attack in order to draw a firm conclusion, but absent that there are quite a large number of reasons why they would deliberately set out to kill a load of MB protesters. Here are some that spring immediately to my mind:

To demonstrate that the army is not afraid to shoot them if they get near to certain installations.
To either goad them into violence, or put others off from even trying to win by force.
To paint themselves as victims against MB terrorists.
To justify the arrest of MB leaders.
To scare some away from protesting at all.
To underline the fact that the MB cannot win on the streets and that Morsi isn't coming back.
To keep the MB out of the political process (inviting them to participate at the same time as arresting them is a sign of how disingenuous their claims of political inclusivity are)


Or someone who tried to paint the events as a genuine secular (liberal/socialist) and religious united front when there was no real such thing and the input was one way.
That's why I am asking who put it up.
(The regime was blackening the protesters anyway.)


I'm giving up attempting to explain this to you since I've already made numerous attempts to explain why a show of unity and a papering over of divisions was very important at the time. Divide and conquer failed at the time, but works much better now. This is the basis for all of my posts recently, its a key difference between now and 2011. The MB fell into this trap which rather inevitably due to their nature and values, and those who are more interested in branding everything as secular also fell for it.
 
The MB fell into this trap which rather inevitably due to their nature and values, and those who are more interested in branding everything as secular also fell for it.

Can't post in full now going out, but this is absurd. If a protest was secular it can be called secular, doesn't need people suggesting it was not secular (which was your point of your picking up the phrase).
 
You seem to be missing the point that, unfortunately, defining a protest as secular has some divisive consequences in some countries. Divisions that they were trying to avoid at that moment in time, as the focus was on getting rid of Mubarak. Even if they didn't want or think they needed the MB & friends to fully back their protests, they certainly wanted to avoid situations that made the MB act against the protests or be used by the Mubarak regime in some other way. And they managed it at the time. The situation now is quite different, the MB have not returned the favour, have acted stupidly in their own self-interest and have been used.
 
Revolution? Coup d’état? The Certain Thing Is We Broke the Boxocracy

Interesting view on the dangers/mistakes of viewing this as :

struggle between a state power and an opposition, security apparatuses and regional and global alliances; or between elements of the old Mubarak regime and men from the new Morsy regime; or between the old institutions of the Egyptian state (that the new men never figured out how to penetrate) and those old institutions (that the new men had managed to take over).

...and missing what this may mean in terms of how there may be a significant movement of people who now view politics as beyond the ballot box almost...(of course, it should be pointed out that there needs to be a constructive side to this as currently it can be seen as only a blocking position).
 
You seem to be missing the point that, unfortunately, defining a protest as secular has some divisive consequences in some countries. Divisions that they were trying to avoid at that moment in time, as the focus was on getting rid of Mubarak. Even if they didn't want or think they needed the MB & friends to fully back their protests, they certainly wanted to avoid situations that made the MB act against the protests or be used by the Mubarak regime in some other way. And they managed it at the time. The situation now is quite different, the MB have not returned the favour, have acted stupidly in their own self-interest and have been used.


I agree with parts of this, and you contributions are valuable.
Perhaps the point about the protests for bread, freedom and justice is that they didn't need to be defined as secular, their modus operandi (not having religious aims) and letting anyone (devout Muslim or Christian) take part meant that they were secular by their nature. Obviously people put up all kinds of slogans for all kinds of reasons and that doesn't reflect the reality of the depth of participation.

I maintain from the martyrhood memorials and (perhaps biased but perhaps still accurate in its essentials) testimony that to call the protests against Mubarak as having anything above a symbolic, limited role from the MB is wrong.
It's like suggesting people from the ROI and ROI civil servants were crucial in the battles after Burntollet. Yes some crossed the border and set up their field clinics to tend the injured, but the people who actually mounted the protests to force through the boundary changes and ostensible "liberal democracy" were the Catholic working-class of northern Ireland, not the ROI and not the liberals of NICRA - important though its contribution was.

You're right that among the Islamic sectors of many societies 'secular' in both versions - almani and ilmani - is something of a swear word. (Just as that word 'secular' in its translations has been to the Catholic right in France or as it was to U Nu in Burma or to the UNP in Sri Lanka).

Many in Muslim countries with a secular mindset believe the word should not be tossed around superfluously, but likewise it shouldn't be denied when someone accuses you (accurately) of it, or you think that someone might accuse you, so you say 'goodness me, we wouldn't dream of it: this is not secular or secular'. You also have to challenge pseudo-secularists (such as the military in this case) who don't mind and probably welcome state religion, just one that doesn't challenge their domination.
 
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268777/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=n5XcDYrX

Liberals are in a real pickle:

Ghada Shahbender, a leading rights activist, said that her "personal dilemma" was that rights groups defended Islamists suppressed during the Mubarak regime, but after Mubarak's fall the Brotherhood turned against rights activists. "Today we are supposed to go defend them, stand in their defense," she said.
After the killings, Shahbender said human rights lawyers went to the morgue to document the deaths and help families find their slain loved ones. Brotherhood lawyers turned them away, saying their help was not needed.
Over the past two years, Brotherhood officials accused rights groups of being foreign-funded and echoed the military's justifications for crackdowns on protesters during the post-Mubarak military rule.
Shahbender said she has also been documenting attacks by Morsi supporters on their opponents the past weeks. In one incident in Cairo near where she lives, she said, "they stood on top of a mosque and shot people in cold blood. ... I am trying to be unbiased but I am a human being."
She too reflected that hope that reform-minded figures like ElBaradei in government will advance their cause, noting that the new interim president called for an investigation into killings.
And, she said, "we have a vice president who has always pushed the human rights agenda to the forefront."
 
PFLP statements urge opening not closing the tunnels and crossings.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/pflp-egypt-palestine-morsi.html


Jameel Mezher, said a positive change in Palestinian-Egyptian relations is likely to take place after the recent change in Egypt. “In fact, what’s happened in Egypt is in the Palestinians’ interest. It will have a positive impact on our situation in the long term,” he said.
Mezher also called on Egyptian authorities to not let the unrest in Egypt take its toll on the Palestinians in Gaza, “who live in dire humanitarian conditions and are at risk of an impending humanitarian and environmental crisis if the closure of the Rafah border crossing continues.”
The senior PFLP leader told Al-Monitor: “We call on the Egyptian authorities to open the Rafah border crossing and ensure that the Palestinians in Gaza aren’t harmed by the change in Egypt. The PFLP hopes that Egypt will continue to play its leading role as a patron of the Palestinians and their rights as it has always been.”
 
Splits in the trade unionised sector.

http://www.madamasr.com/content/and-where-do-workers-stand


Shortly after the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces deposed Morsi on July 3, the presidency of the EFITU issued a statement praising the Armed Forces and their role in the “June 30 revolution,” while also calling on workers to forfeit their right to strike. EFITU President Kamal Abu Attiya wrote that “workers who were champions of the strike under the previous regime should now become champions of production.”

But Abu Attiya, named the new minister of manpower on Monday by interim Prime Minister Hazem al-Beblawi, isn’t the only representative of the independent unions movement.

On July 10, EFITU council member Fatma Ramadan issued a rebuttal to Abu Attiya’s statement. Ramadan insisted that “Egypt’s workers must never sacrifice their right to strike.”

Ramadan told Mada Masr that Abu Attiya unilaterally issued his statement without conferring with other EFITU council members.

“As a union federation our role must be to uphold all workers’ rights, including the right to strike. Workers can reclaim their rights and freedoms only if they retain their right to strike — as a weapon by which to confront labor violations and employers’ abuses,” Ramadan says. “As unionists, we cannot possibly call on workers to protect the interests of businessmen by forfeiting labor rights under the pretext of bolstering the national economy.”

Ramadan views the June 30 movement as “an uprising-turned-coup. It lacks both a unified leadership and clear aims. SCAF, along with right-wing elements and remnants of the Mubarak regime, appear to be taking over this movement, and may turn June 30 from an uprising to a counter-revolution.”

I think the SCAF takeover is pretty dominant today, as the new government is sworn in.
 
The beyond the ballot box stuff is interesting, and not exactly a million miles away from whats happened in many countries with rather old 'democracies' as people have lost faith in elected leaders. I suppose its not terribly surprising this has happened in Egypt, where let alone the failings of the MB in power people were not exactly over impressed with the secular opposition parties during Mubaraks reign, and didn't rush to let them claim the revolution for themselves. Obviously there are some high stakes and a sense of immediacy in Egypt. The power of the military making many entities decide its a 'necessity' to do deals with the military in order to gain any meaningful power should also speed up the process of people becoming disillusioned with traditional groups.

Not sure what to say about the union stuff, other than it being less than surprising that Abu Attiya would say that now that he is manpower minister. Rather crude and blatant though. I would like to know more about the July 2nd failed strike attempts that are mentioned in the article.

Another less than subtle move came during the formation of the cabinet....

Army chief Gen Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, who ousted Mohammed Morsi on July 3, retains his post as defense minister and also took the position of first deputy prime minister, an additional title given to defense ministers in the past.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/2013716145916429528.html
 
The brief profiles of cabinet members I've seen so far are, rather unsurprisingly, not exactly inspiring.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/76609.aspx

Lots of highlights (lowlights), skipping the union bloke for now:


Nabil Fahmy - Minister of Foreign Affairs
Fahmy, a former Egyptian ambassador to the US, will assume the role of foreign minister in place of Mohamed Kamel Amr who has been in the post since July 2011.
Fahmy, who is dean of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo, was Egypt's ambassador to the US from 1999 to 2008.
Previously, he was the country's ambassador to Japan from 1997 to 1999. He also served as the political advisor to Egypt's foreign minister from 1992 to 1997.
Fahmy was born in New York in 1951. He received a bachelor's degree in physics and mathematics and a master's in management, both from the American University in Cairo.
Dorreya Sharaf El-Din - Minister of Information
Dorreya Sharaf El-Din is the first woman to take on the role of information minister.
The information ministry has long faced criticisms that it is used as a tool by the government to control the media, and many calls have been made to abolish it since the January 2011 revolution.
Sharaf El-Din is a significant figure in the state-run Egyptian Radio and Television Union. She previously served as the first undersecretary of the information ministry, heading the satellite channels division.
She has also hosted several television shows including Sual (Question) on a state channel and Ahl El-Raey (People of Opinion) on privately-owned Dream channel.
Sharaf El-Din was also a member of the policies committee and the women's committee of the former president Mubarak's now-dissolved National Democratic Party.
Mohamed Amin El-Mahdy – Minister of Transitional Justice and National Reconciliation
An international judge and a prominent lawmaker, El-Mahdy, 77, is a member of the advisory committee of the Cairo Regional Centre for International Commercial Arbitration (CRCICA) and the National Human Rights Council.
Graduating with a degree in law in 1956, El-Mahdy started out as an associate in the technical office of late Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser, and later became an advisor to the justice and finance ministers.
Following the January 25 revolution, El-Mahdy served as member of a national fact-finding committee tasked with investigation into violations that took place during the uprising.
He also heads a national committee tasked with retrieving Egyptian funds from overseas.
His post – minister of transitional justice and national reconciliation - is a new role, replacing the old position of minister of justice.
Mounir Fakhry Abdel-Nour - Minister of Industry
Abdel-Nour is one of the ex-ministers that claimed to have been offered and refused a ministerial position under recently ousted president Mohamed Morsi.
He is currently secretary-general of the National Salvation Front, Egypt's main opposition bloc under Morsi’s regime.
The Coptic minister is also the founder of the Egyptian Finance Company and was a member of the National Council for Human Rights. He also sits on the board of directors for the Egyptian Federation of Industries and the Egyptian Competition Authority.
Ahmed Galal - Minister of Finance
Galal, who holds a doctorate in economics from Boston University, has been the managing Director of the Economic Research Forum (ERF), a Cairo-based leading non-governmental research institution covering the Middle East, since 2007.
Galal was a researcher with the World Bank for 18 years, where he served as industrial economist for Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa, economic advisor at the private sector development department and finally as adviser on the Middle East and North Africa from 2006 to 2007.
A prolific writer, Galal has authored and co-authored over a dozen works on privatisation, regulation of monopolies, trade, monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Ashraf El-Araby - Minister of Planning
El-Araby served as Egypt's Minister of Planning and International Cooperation from August 2012 to May 2013 under Hisham Qandil. He was replaced by Muslim Brotherhood figure Amr Darrag in a May reshuffle.
El-Araby was a key part of the Egyptian team negotiating with the International Monetary Fund to obtain Egypt's long-awaited $4.8 billion loan and is expected to take up this role once again.
 
Ahmed El-Borai - Minister of Social Solidarity
El-Borai served as minister of manpower under Egypt’s first post-revolution prime minister Essam Sharaf in March 2011 until he was replaced in August 2012 by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Khaled El-Azhary.
The law professor, who holds degrees from the universities of Cairo and Paris, succeeded in June 2011 in removing Egypt from the International Labour Organisation’s "short-term" blacklist, partly through his decision that Egyptian workers would be free to establish and form independent trade unions, a significant advance for workers rights. His decision, however, was not enacted by parliament and Egypt was consequently put back on the ILO blacklist .
As an expert in labour relations, he played a prominent role in drafting the unified labour law of 2003.
Mohamed Abu Shadi - Minister of Supply
Abu Shadi was formerly the senior interior ministry official responsible for investigating supply crimes.
Abu Shadi also served as the head of the internal trade sector in the Ministry of Trade and Industry under Rashid Mohamed Rashid, the last trade minister under ousted president Hosni Mubarak.
Ahmed Imam - Minister of Electricity
Imam was appointed by ousted president Morsi and will continue in his post.
Criticisms arose lately after recurrent electricity blackouts over the past two months. In June, Emam said that Egypt's current electricity-generating capacity now exceeds national consumption.
He called on citizens to continue cooperating with the ministry by decreasing their electricity consumption.
Adel Labib – Minister of Local Development
Adel Labib, 68, served as governor in several Egyptian governorates under Mubarak, including Qena in Upper Egypt, Beheira in the Nile Delta, and Alexandria.
There were major protests against him in Alexandria with some local groups accusing him of mismanagement during his term.
However, in 2011 he was made governor of Qena for a second time by prime minister Essam Sharaf after protests by locals demanded that Labib be appointed in place of an unpopular alternative.
 
Morsi and others being investigated for being broken out of jail in 2011. :facepalm:

Detention of el-sharer and others extended another 15 days relating to deaths of protesters at MB headquarters.

August 19th set for Mubarak & sons embezzlement trial.

And a youtube video which is apparently some MB twats beating on a kid until others intervene...

According to Al Arabiya's website, a boy shows up to the scene and someone grabs and asks him:"Who sent you here?;" "Who are you?;" “Are you with Morsi?;” and "Who are you with?."
The horrified-looking boy was then beaten on the back of his head and then he was slapped.
When a man attempted to stop the assault, they shouted at him saying that the boy was hired by Morsi’s opponents. “I know he is, but he’s just a child,” the man responds. "This isn’t merciful," says another man approaching them.
He and others take the boy away, but it is unclear what happened to him afterwards.



All via the AlJazeera Egypt live blog at http://blogs.aljazeera.com/liveblog/topic/egypt-21121
 
@MattMcBradley
2h
Border between Gaza and Egypt looks like World War I: mounds of earth tucked between homes where the military dug up tunnels.
@MattMcBradley
48m
Residents along border with Gaza said that while tunnels had been destroyed before, most recent assault was most aggressive ever.
@MattMcBradley
46m
We were strongly cautioned from taking photos. People said military had arrested journalists and intelligence had a heavy presence.
 
Amnesty accuses the military of torture in recent days, Brotherhood detained are up to 400 apparently.

Here's quite a good summary of what should be borne in mind, now that the military are firmly in power:

http://www.mei.edu/content/morsi-was-no-role-model-islamic-democrats

The trans-Atlantic alliance and intra-Islamist rift of Morsi’s administration made strange bedfellows. Between the start of Tamarod protests on 30 June and the coup three days later, Salafists joined with Egyptian liberals in calling for Morsi be deposed. The Obama administration, meanwhile, urged a political solution.[15] Here it is worth emphasizing that the U.S. government liked Morsi not despite his Islamism and not because of his electoral credentials, but because he promoted U.S. goals. Had Morsi opposed U.S. national security objectives, U.S. officials would probably have supported his ouster (and cited his autocratic record as pretext). But he didn’t. And they didn’t. Consequently,
Morsi—despite his polarizing downfall—bore little resemblance to his peers in the FIS and Hamas. He was something new: a veteran Islamist toppled after contesting elections and promoting U.S. strategy. Two weeks into al-Sisi’s transition, the military has committed the worst shooting massacre[16] since Luxor 1997,[17] sectarianism is on the rise,[18] and the Brotherhood is boycotting political negotiations. A spike in instability after the putsch, however, does not retroactively democratize Morsi’s regime. Just halfway through his first year in office, Egypt’s first freely elected president was following an authoritarian playbook. Rather than making his office one pillar in a democratic infrastructure, Morsi trampled on the judicial and media institutions that would have balanced and stabilized his rule. In less than 12 months, he took Egypt from proto-democracy to proto-dictatorship.
 
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