Egypt anti-government protests grow

[littlebabyjesus]

She was definitely making some "throw him under the bus noises."

Only because the Americans don't like backing losers. They like their dictators to have a firm grip on power. Fuck Clinton. Where has she been in the last 20 years?

 

[shaman75]

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

To what other countries do you think this could spread? I've heard Yemen and Jordan mentioned, any other likely places?

 

[magneze]

To what other countries do you think this could spread? I've heard Yemen and Jordan mentioned, any other likely places?

Prominent tweet on BBC News ticker says that if Egypt goes then the the whole region will go because it's so pivotal.

As other have said, Saudi Arabia would be the biggest - could that go too? It would be the last I imagine..

 

[lizzieloo]

Oppression+poverty is what makes people go over the edge, have no idea why some people are suggesting this might happen in Saudi Arabia next.

Apart from geography

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Prominent tweet on BBC News ticker says that if Egypt goes then the the whole region will go because it's so pivotal.

Someone said that on Al Jaz about half an hour ago too.

 

[stuff_it]

To what other countries do you think this could spread? I've heard Yemen and Jordan mentioned, any other likely places?

Seems unlikely to spread to the ones I really want it to spread to most....

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Oppression+poverty is what makes people go over the edge, have no idea why some people are suggesting this might happen in Saudi Arabia next.

Apart from geography

Funnily enough, that was going to be my next question; you seem to have answered it already though. SA are out of the question then?

 

[Dandred]

That is the fight for tomorrow, though. First get rid of Mubarak.

So, you don't care if there is an uprising of religious religious nutters?

I hope this revolution allows women to have an equal voice as men in Egyptian life.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Seems unlikely to spread to the ones I really want it to spread to most....

Not immediately, perhaps. But with free Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, etc, surrounding them, pressure on the remaining despots increases. At the very least, their friends start to disappear.

One-state solution to Palestine/Israel? Becomes more likely with the region surrounded by democracies.

 

[dylans]

Yes. They have to take sides, but the military is largely conscript, is it not? It may be like in Portugal – not the generals, but the rank and file who decide which side they take.

There are several scenerios, the rank and file deserting is least likely. Not least because if this thing falls apart the individual soldier gets shot. and there is no evidence that the military is anything but unified and disciplined. Rank and file desertions are the usually the final act of a social revolution and I don't think we are anywhere near that here.

Rather what is happening is a political revolution. A movement aimed at changing the political regime and as such it is a movement that can be appeased without sacrificing the existing power structures. Dump Mubarak and the wind is taken out of this movement. At least for now.

The army know that Mubarak can go without substantially altering the existing power structure and that whatever the outcome the military will remain a unified force. This is the lesson of Tunisia where the military as a whole, dumped Ben Ali to save their skins of the ruling elite.

There exists a way out of this for Egyptian ruling class. It is sitting there on a plate. his name is Mohamed ElBaradei. He is perfect for them. He is pro western and would probably be acceptable to the west. The military could dump Mubarak and make a big deal about freeing Elbaradie and declare victory for the revolution and still get their 1.2 billion a year from the US. An ElBaredei government would probably not be too hard on Israel either.In short he is the perfect pro western puppet.


To replace Mubarak would probably not challenge the ruling power structure too much and Elbaredei has all the bells and whistles of liberal democracy that the west can wave around.

The question is will the military take this option or is their loyalty to Mubarak so great they will drown their country in blood to save his skin? One thing is for sure. This will only get worse unless Mubarak goes.

This is the question that will decide the fate of the Egyptian revolution over the next 24 hours.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So, you don't care if there is an uprising of religious religious nutters?

Of course I fucking care. But this is not an uprising of religious nutters. At the moment it is merely an uprising that religious nutters are supporting. They are not driving it, though, and there is no reason whatever to think that they will be able to hijack it.

But at the moment, the objective is those currently in power. Deal with the Islamists afterwards.

 

[lizzieloo]

Funnily enough, that was going to be my next question; you seem to have answered it already though. SA are out of the question then?

I could be wrong hence the

Piece here about poverty in Saudi

http://strangerinthisdunya.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/poverty-in-saudi-arabia/

 

[magneze]

Someone said that on Al Jaz about half an hour ago too.

Missed that. Could change everything.

 

[Dandred]

Of course I fucking care. But this is not an uprising of religious nutters. At the moment it is merely an uprising that religious nutters are supporting. They are not driving it, though, and there is no reason whatever to think that they will be able to hijack it.

But at the moment, the objective is those currently in power. Deal with the Islamists afterwards.

Who do you think are going to have all the air time there after the revolution?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The question is will the military take this option or is their loyalty to Mubarak so great they will drown their country in blood to save his skin? One thing is for sure. This will only get worse unless Mubarak goes.

No, it is more than that. The army is made up largely of conscripts. Any general is rightly nervous of ever ordering a conscript army to turn its guns on its own people.

 

[lizzieloo]

Who do you think are going to have all the air time there after the revolution?

Just fucking ignore him.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Not if the Brotherhood gets to power they won't...

I'm beginning to think that threat is being overblown. The protesters aren't shouting allahu akbar they're shouting down with the regime.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

So you don't need Twitter or Facebook to create a revolution

The communication which helped organise happened in part on their before the shut down. FB and Twitter are major but not exclusive components of any social movement now. They don't create change they help communicate and organise it along with other more traditional means...

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I hope this revolution allows women to have an equal voice as men in Egyptian life.

I hope they have more voice than that. Men haven't exactly had it so great there either.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I hope this revolution allows women to have an equal voice as men in Egyptian life.

Where have I said I don't want that. At the moment there is a 'rainbow coalition' of all kinds of groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood but also including secularists. But the Muslim Brotherhood are not the worry right now. As I said that is a fight to be won tomorrow.

 

[magneze]

Eyewitness reports on the world service atm: http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/audioconsole/?stream=live

 

[Dandred]

Just fucking ignore him.

OK, but really, lizzieloo, who do you think are going to have all the air time there after the revolution?

I hope it is the people.

I doubt it.

 

[chilango]

My AJ feed has gone down.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Are you saying that you think the Islamists will have all the air time after the revolution?

Given that they are in no sense leading the revolution, why would you think that?

 

[Dandred]

Where have I said I don't want that. At the moment there is a 'rainbow coalition' of all kinds of groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood but also including secularists. But the Muslim Brotherhood are not the worry right now. As I said that is a fight to be won tomorrow.

When you posted this, why do you think I was talking to you?

 

[magneze]

My AJ feed has gone down.

Freeview channel 89 if you have it.

 

[butchersapron]

OK, but really, lizzieloo, who do you think are going to have all the air time there after the revolution?

I hope it is the people.

I doubt it.

What on earth are you asking? Who do you think will have control of the airwaves? The MB?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

When you posted this, why do you think I was talking to you?

I thought the fact you quoted me in your post was a clue.

 

[chilango]

Freeview channel 89 if you have it.

Nope.

But I'll try a different machine...

eta - sorted!