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Egypt anti-government protests grow

I gotta go do some work now but from a quick glance at twitter it seems that they have ruled that Shafiq can stay in the election, and that a third of parliament is unconstitutional.
 
MB and salafi seat seem to be the ones gone...interesting as i had just a few minutes ago been reading something that suggested MB expect to lose the presidential heavily and so looking to embed in parliament and govt.
 
Lot of confusion - some people saying whole parliament dissolved - (constitutional court can't actually formally do that), some people saying constituent assembly also dead and SCAF saying they're re-introducing 1971 constitution. It does seem to be the original 1/3 though.
 
Shafiq stays in the race.
The court disbands 1/3 of the parliament which means the whole parliament will be disbanded because according to the constitional declaration the Parliament should not be less than 350 members.
The legislative powers are transferred from Parliament to SCAF which will form a constitutional assembly tomorrow
Yesterday the military reinstated martial law which was only lifted two weeks ago. It also reinstated military trials for civilians and banned protests.

Two weeks ago Egypt's temporary leadership lifted a decades-old "state of emergency". Today martial law is back​

, in anticipation of a court ruling that could throw the hotly disputed presidential election wide open again and bring demonstrators back to the streets.​
And, despite agreement on who will write the new democratic constitution​

just last week, the new martial law gives back sweeping powers to the military – including the right to arrest civilians for "resisting authorities" and to try them in army courts.​
Click to expand...
http://en.avaaz.org/638/martial-law-returns-to-egypt


Edit. both chambers of Parliament now dissolved. This is effectively a coup
 
My take on it is this. The MB were never a threat because of their "radicalism" and talk of Iran was always hysterical. As I have said before, the MB were a threat because of the moderation not their radicalism, namely their willingness to accept the existance of the military deep state and the continued hold of the old regime over the economy, state institutions such as the media, interior ministry etc. They have bent over backwards to prove themselves willing puppets of the existing military regime. The MB were always willing to work with the military and were quite prepared to accept a Shafiq presidency and take places in a Shafiq led cabinet. The MB believed they could live with Shafiq and that any planned crackdown would be aimed at their mutual enemies, the secularists, leftists, revolutionaries and liberals of Tahrir and that their control of Parliament would shield them. They miscalculated. They attempted to make a deal with the military and they lost. Now consider this, the next President of Egypt will swear his oath in front of the military regime. The military candidate remains, Parliament is dissolved and martial law reinstated. The country has no constitution and no way of drafting one, its judiciary has just demonstrated itself to be a tool of the old regime. This is a power grab. It's a coup.

As we are now seeing, however much the MB tried to make themselves a suitable party of the counter revolution, they were never acceptable to elements of the old NDP regime and the military. They see a MB dominated Parliament, or indeed any genuinely representative institution, as an ever hanging threat over their head and look with disquiet at the Mubarak verdict and fear further judicial action against them in the future as well as measures trimming or limiting their existng interests. This is their answer. A soft coup. They judged, probably correctly, that the mandate for the MB is limited, the population is exhausted and the opposition too disorganised and divided to present any real protest, so they have moved to scrap a Parliament they never wanted, enforce a Shafiq win and reinstate the paralysed complicit civilian regime of the Mubarak days. After all, what is to stop them?

What happens next is anyones guess. If this is met with protests, it is certainly possible that we will see a bloody crackdown Algerian style or perhaps they will seek to keep some kind of constitutional cover to their actions and organise fresh elections under more rigid control. They have just thrown the gauntlet down to the MB to call demonstrations and take things to the next level, gambling that they will blink. I think they have judged correctly and the MB will do nothing and simply accept whatever crumbs the regime throws at them. The military are now free to move against further street protest and industrial unrest, to gain control of the civilian regime, declare the revolution over and to maintain the long term interests of the deep state.
 
Well I guess this is what happens when too many people or parties kid themselves that lots of ground has been won and held, and that their nation is not utterly dominated by a military regime. :( Regime couldn't get 'divide and rule' to work properly at all in those first months, but since then they appear to have done a pretty good job of it.

To have come much further than this by now the people either needed to seize or destroy far more aspects of the regime than its figurehead, or for there to have been a massive split in the military, or for the opposition to have united more convincingly for a sustained period of time.

Its hard to say whether seizing other facilities at a key moment would have set things going in a better direction or would just have resulted in a bloodbath. Think of the times we were holding our breath, waiting to see if the regime crushed the people in the square, or whether the people in the square would press on in great numbers to, for example, that fucking television building. I know on many days/nights they only just had enough people to hold the square, but I can't help but think that an opportunity was missed on the occasions where the numbers swelled to epic proportions.

Its pretty hard to probe the military split potential since we hardly ever learnt anything at all about the opinions of individuals or what factions may exist, or the real structure of the beast. We've long known it would be an especially tough nut to crack due to how much they had to lose as a result of their involvement with many economic sectors. And the fact that there were grumblings about the son of Mubarak getting into power meant that a good many of their number could see the revolution as being to their advantage so long as they made sure it didn't go much beyond the removal of the head. And thats before we even get to relations with the USA.

Having said all that I don't think its over yet. Given the way things seem to work in Egypt it would be silly to rule out some further twists, and my recent focus in the other thread on the non-MB opposition leaves me keen to see how the likes of Sabbahi respond. I've also resisted being too judgemental about the MB till now, but this is now a test for them that I will be scoring, likely too late.

I guess the other thread might die if this one is alive again, so I'll link to it here for future reference, those rainy days where the masses will flock to skim over all 207 pages of this thread and still be hungry for more ;). http://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/swp-says-vote-muslim-brotherhood.294624/
 
Mursi's response to the rulings.

Muslim Brotherhood presidential candidate Mohamed Mursi has said he would respect Thursday's controversial High Constitutional Court rulings.

"I respect the court's decision, in that I respect state institutions and the principle of the separation of powers," Mursi said in televised comments on Thursday evening. He went on, however, to stress his "dissatisfaction" with the court's ruling against the Political Disenfranchisement Law.

On Thursday afternoon, Egypt's High Constitutional Court declared Egypt's Political Disenfranchisement Law – which had threatened presidential finalist and Mubarak-era PM Ahmed Shafiqwith disqualification from the presidential race – to be unconstitutional. The contentious ruling will allow Shafiq to contest the presidency in a runoff vote against Mursi slated for Saturday and Sunday.

A second ruling, meanwhile, found Egypt's Parliamentary Elections Law – which regulated last year's legislative polls – to be similarly unconstitutional. The latter verdict means that both the People's Assembly and the consultative Shura Council (the lower and upper houses of Egypt's parliament) will likely be dissolved and fresh elections held.

In his televised comments, Mursi urged the Egyptian public "not to heed baseless rumours," going on to vow that, if he is elected president, "figures from the ousted criminal regime will not be allowed to return to political life."
Click to expand...


http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/44950.aspx
 
I'll wait just a little longer before commenting on the MB response, in the meantime here is an article which has quite a few useful nuggets.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/2012614172410271831.html

At issue on Thursday was the way in which the People's Assembly was elected, which involved a hybrid ballot, two-thirds of which was meant for political parties and one-third for independents.
The Brotherhood pushed the military to change the rules at the last moment, opening the independent seats for parties, thus hemming in the power of former regime elites to run for election.

But that push now seems to have backfired, with the court ruling that the change to the hybrid system unfairly discriminated against independents.
It relied on that principle to declare those seats invalid, and an election rerun necessary.
Click to expand...
Though Egypt's judiciary was long respected as a bulwark of independence, and one of the only checks on ousted president Hosni Mubarak's government, analysts say the court was stacked with Mubarak sympathisers in recent years, perhaps to ease the way for what many believed was a plan to hand the reins of power to his son.

Many viewed the Supreme Constitutional Court's decision on Thursday as deeply political.

Exacerbating the perception were remarks made last week by Ahmed el-Zend, the head of the Judges Club, who declared that judges would not have overseen elections if they had known the parliament they were going to get.
Click to expand...

By the way I've seen a few videos of Shafiq being interviewed, and a few people commenting on twitter, that seemed to feature slurry speech. I'll try to find an example, its not too easy for me to judge since the language and pronunciation mean nothing to me.
 
As a result of their numerous fuckups, the MB now find themselves in a position where the vice-president of their political party can take to facebook and call events a fully fledged coup, but their presidential candidate, unless he wanted to pull out, has to say stuff like this when questioned (From AlJ's Egypt liveblog http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/topic/egypt-155 ):

Egyptian presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi gave an interview on Dream 2 on Thursday evening.

"I don't consider this a military coup," he said, responding to a question about the Constitutional Court's decision to dismiss the entire parliament.

"I love the military forces," he said.

Morsi said he does not intend to pull out from the race.
Click to expand...
 
Insert joke about denial/the Nile here ;)

From the guardian liveblog: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/mid...yria-crisis-war-crimes-evidence-live#block-49

The Muslim Brotherhood appears not to accept the notion that the current parliament will necessarily be disbanded.
About four hours ago the group tweeted "parliament is staying." They have followed up with this explanation:

Supreme Court doesn't have the power to dissolve the parliament, it only decides on constitutionality of the laws

The idea apparently being that there is daylight between the method of election of the parliament (found unconstitutional today) and the legitimacy or viability of the parliament. It is unclear whether the Brotherhood believes that there exists a power – the SCAF or otherwise – that can dissolve parliament.
Click to expand...
 
Some serious well informed people are saying the next item on courts on the agenda is the dissolution of the mb on this Wednesday. Can't say i believe that, they need the mb to cool things down for them.
 
They've been internally split since well before this - since the elders came out of prison and even before.But not split in the manner of half of them moving towards the left - split in the sense of immediate tactics and short term aims, not the central idea long term aim of sharia law and and an islamist state. And they won't be split by short term pressure from the left - not after the repression they've suffered (and help deal out) over the last 50 years.
 
well, probably, but even tactical shifts can have unintended consequences further down the line. Absolutely right for the left to be suspicious and wary towards the MB, but if they certain sections can help to stop an immediate return to the status quo ante then this could be significant.
 
A return? What do you think has been going on since feb last year? An original political coup guaranteed by the MB and SCAF and a second one with SCAF now saying to the MB that they have to accept SCAF dominance in order to keep their own relatively powerful role in the state. The only pressure that counts for the MB comes from that direction. Please don't think that the MB are going to lift a finger to stop the latest developments - they know full well their role is to ensure they happen with min fuss.
 
One of the gains that hasn't been squished yet is increased media freedom. I think this is the front page of a newspaper named Al-Tahrir which according to someone on twitter has the headline 'As you were' (with picture of Tantawi)

AvbUIrJCAAALTNw.jpg:large
 
Most reports so far indicate unsurprising things like a lack of voter energy, shitty turnout, and some mild harassment of foreign journalists by the security services. Some people have favoured spoilt ballots rather than not voting at all, so I'll be looking with interest at those numbers.

Oh and another dodgy tv advert, I don't think we need a translation of this to get the idea.

 
Leaked SCAF declaration tonight (supposed to be released tuedsay) - not seen translation but seems to to say that SCAF can do whatever they want if they feel people and bodies aren't doing what they should and that they will. Slow legal strangle stepped up.
 
Presently possible to imagine a scenario emerging where the MB win, but Shafiq makes a lot of noise about the MB being undemocratic, and then SCAF ban the MB.
 
Morsi is claiming victory and people are gathering in Tahrir. I am not sure it makes any difference now as the military have just granted themselves new powers in a constitutional declaration, effectively cementing their coup and castrating any Presidential winner


Egypt's generals awarded themselves sweeping political powers in an 11th-hour constitutional declaration that tied the hands of the country's incoming president and cemented military authority over the post-Mubarak era.
The announcement on Sunday night came as early presidential election results put the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi ahead of his rival Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak's final prime minister and an unabashed champion of the old regime. But with thousands of polling stations yet to declare following the two-day runoff vote, the overall winner was too close to call.
Pro-change activists and human rights campaigners said the junta's constitutional declaration – which came just days after judges extended the army's ability to arrest civilians and following the dissolution of the Brotherhood-dominated parliament by the country's top court – rendered the scheduled handover of power to a democratically elected executive meaningless.
Click to expand...

Under a new constitutional amendments, the military would gain sweeping new powers at the expense of the new president and the now dissolved parliament. They include legislative responsibilities; the power to write the new constitution; powers of arrest; and control over the armed forces and the right to veto wars.
Click to expand...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/egypts-generals-act-presidential-poll

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/mid.../egypt-elections-shafiq-morsi-live?intcmp=239

Things are looking bad but they could get worse. On Tuesday the administrative court will rule on the legality of the MB. If they rule them illegal they could be banned and members arrested which will almost guarantee confrontation. Also Islamist MPs are planning a march on Parliament Tuesday too to protest the dissolution of Parliament. It is possible they could be met with force.
 
Christ, it's looking like it's too late. The window of opportunity in which the army felt cowed into allowing a civilian administration seems to have passed.
 
The new constitutional declaration appears to be be substantially the earlier Selmi Document of March 2011 which the MB refused to swallow that that point and forced its withdrawal. Of course, in the period from then till now the MB has been busy at work establishing its credibility with SCAF and others by working hard to shut down, minimise or render impotent the sort of public protest/public politics that allowed them to threaten SCAF with a revolt against the original document - and as has happened so many times in Egypts past, allowed themselves to be used by the state in such a way as to cut their own throats as well.

The actual declaration basically demonstrates that SCAF are going to rule politically through the Constitutional Courts packed with old/new regime defenders, whilst reserving to themselves complete power over the whole section of society/economics that they run. non-scaf politicians/parties/factions will propose things - SCAF will exercise its veto, goes to consitutional court - court agress with SCAF, politicians have to come back with exactly what SCAF wants.
 
There's a court case coming up in the week to decide whether the Muslim Brotherhood should be outlawed (who the hell is bringing these cases to court?). Hopefully they will ban them and that will force the silly bastards to fight

What's the betting then that bombs start going off which is then used by SCAF to clampdown on the Islamists?
 
Divisive Cotton said:
There's a court case coming up in the week to decide whether the Muslim Brotherhood should be outlawed (who the hell is bringing these cases to court?). Hopefully they will ban them and that will force the silly bastards to fight

What's the betting then that bombs start going off which is then used by SCAF to clampdown on the Islamists?
Click to expand...

Be careful what you wish for. If there is a crackdown it won't just be on the Islamists. This election was a victory for the boycott campaign, some polls suggest the turnout was around 15%!!. Really quite stunning for the country's first Presidential election. This demonstrates a huge disillusionment with both candidates and is a resounding no confidence vote in the entire process. If the counter revolution moves to crush the opposition and reinstate dictatorial rule, it will not only be the brotherhood that will be crushed, it will be the revolutionary forces as a whole. There is still a 300.000 strong force of CSF and SSI thugs at the disposal of the state to employ and they are still led by the same Mubarak era figures. They were thrashed in January and are looking for revenge.

In 1991 Islamists won Algeria's election and their victory was followed by the military annulling the election and crushing the Islamists. Some 100.000 people died in the violence which followed.
 
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