Egypt anti-government protests grow

[elbows]

This NYT article may help fill in some of the smaller gaps regarding deals:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/w...lim-brotherhood-and-the-generals.html?_r=1&hp

 

[teqniq]

That is pretty funny and up until the other day I was still wondering what felool meant.

 

[dylans]

The victor in the Presidential elections will be announced at 3.00pm Egyptian time (2.00pm here). Tahrir is full of tents of MB supporters. The streets are deserted. Shops, banks and businesses closed. The military are deployed across the city with shoot to kill orders. Helicopters are flying over the city. People are terrified and stocking up on food. Rumours and supposed leaks abound.The military have done a good job of raising tensions and frightening everyone.

What happens if Shafiq is declared the winner is anyones guess but whoever is announced as the winner, the military have already won.

 

[dylans]

Ok I am going to hazard a guess, pure speculation but here it is. I think there has been a backroom deal between Morsi and SCAF and the MB have agreed to back down on the issues of the military power grab in exchange for the election. This is what the delay has been about, playing chicken with the MB. If Morsi wins it means he has blinked and has agreed to be the military's lap dog

If Shafiq wins it means that a deal between the MB and Shafiq has failed. Given what we know of the opportunism of the MB, I just can't see this happening. If Shafiq is declared the winner then what happens next is up to the MB, if they take this to the streets, then there will be conflict. Again, given what we know the MB I can't see the MB taking things to the next level either. I think they will make some noise to let off steam then accept the result.

Notice that none of this speculation has anything to do with who actually got the most votes. That this is not a fair election is a given

 

[dylans]

Egypt state TV just announced the result will be now announced at 6.00pm Egypt time (5.00pm here) Tanks deployed around election commission HQ. They certainly know how to milk the tension.

 

[elbows]

Yes, at a minimum the speculation has been pointing in this direction to the extent that quite a lot of people in Egypt now think this is what has happened, in terms of back room deals. And not only would this game have been used to get the MB to backdown in regards certain issues, but also to bring some revolutionary groups closer to MB where they can be contained, whilst other are further marginalised. Jubilation at a non-Shaqif victory may also be utilised to narrow the agenda.

We shall see, but the above certainly seems neater than having Shafiq win. If they let Shafiq win then not only would there be a bit of a stink in terms of international response, and election looking illegitimate, but also because there is probably a limit as to how far they can push the MB without the MB going beyond their usual moderated sell-out position - even if the core of MB wimp out there are some splits, e.g. the MB youth didn't exactly stay on message during the original uprising.

To put it overly simplistically, its divide & conquer vs unite & conquer.

 

[dylans]

State TV now saying the result will be announced in 30 minutes. Tahrir is packed.

From the Guardian live blog

This is the most hotly anticipated press conference in Egyptian history. Any further delay is not good for our hearts and our minds.
The speculation is intense, every hour it changes. Now it looks like Morsi is winning.
There have been reports that the Muslim Brotherhood have been locked in negotiations with the army. The election result hinges on negotiations not voting. I think Morsi is possibly going to be named the president today, and for that to happen they are going to have to give up on [the dissolved] parliament and the constitution.
If Shafiq wins all hell breaks loose. It is going to be a very visceral, very strong reaction. It's going to be very big, and very negative, and not just by the Muslim Brotherhood. For all revolutionary forces to see Shafiq assume the presidency a year and half after you've ousted his boss is a bitter pill to swallow.
Don't be surprise if they say the rerun will have to be redone, or if they annul the results entirely. We would have to start over and start with the constitution this time and then parliamentary elections and presidential election.

The very fact that this election result depends on secret negotiations and not the actual vote result says it all really.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/jun/24/egypt-election-results-live

 

[elbows]

The press conference is happening and the electoral commission is having a go at the MB. Some think this is setting the scene for a Shafiq victory, not long till we find out.

 

[elbows]

All appeals rejected.

 

[elbows]

I feel sorry for the translator, this is beyond tedious.

 

[dylans]

I feel sorry for the translator, this is beyond tedious.

One could be forgiven for thinking they are deliberately trying to raise tension by dragging this out. It is incredibly hot in Cairo right now. (100 F. 36C) People are fainting from the heat in Tahrir.

Tahrir now

 

[dylans]

Lol. Britains deputy Ambassador to Egypt tweeted

​

Thom Reilly​

@ThomReilly​

​

My wife has just given the best explanation for the delay in the results. It's taken Faruq a whole week to write his speech!​

 

[elbows]

All the corrections so far are low numbers.

Twitter joke:

Sultan: "You wouldn't believe how many guys named 'Mohammed' tried to vote. Let me list them."

 

[dylans]

BBC have got so bored that they have cut to Tahrir

 

[elbows]

AJE have cut away as well.

 

[elbows]

Moments from the result it seems.

 

[elbows]

MB win.

 

[elbows]

Some journalists revolting at the press conference.

 

[dylans]

Morsi wins

 

[butchersapron]

The people demand the fall of Morsi.

 

[elbows]

Twitter joke:

@blakehounshell
The good news is that everyone had time to grow a full beard during Sultan's speech.

 

[treelover]

what a disaster, all those lives lost, for what? then again if Shafiq had won we may have seen something like happened in Algeria with the GIA, but clearly the secularists and the left are the losers...

 

[treelover]

I imagine Gorgeous George will be writing out his congratulations letter as we speak..

 

[elbows]

Its not that simple at all, the MB have plenty to lose now. Especially due to the budget, which if this fascinating Sandmonkey blog post is right about, will include horrible fuel subsidy cuts.

http://www.sandmonkey.org/2012/06/24/the-game/

 

[dylans]

what a disaster, all those lives lost, for what? then again if Shafiq had won we may have seen something like happened in Algeria with the GIA, but clearly the secularists and the left are the losers...

The disaster is not that the brotherhood won but that they won a Presidency that has been stripped of all power. The real disaster happened last week when SCAF pulled of a coup and closed down Parliament and brought back martial law. The MB have won nothing but the right to be SCAFs bitch.

Lets see how long it takes them to empty Tahrir now they have the Presidency. Lets see how long it takes them to abandon their promise to stay in Tahrir until martial law is rescinded and Parliament reinstated. I give them until tomorrow at the latest. They have done a deal with the military, its obvious. They get given the Presidency on the condition they play along with all of the military's measures.

 

[dylans]

Its not that simple at all, the MB have plenty to lose now. Especially due to the budget, which if this fascinating Sandmonkey blog post is right about, will include horrible fuel subsidy cuts.

http://www.sandmonkey.org/2012/06/24/the-game/

Good article. I agree with all of it. The MB have accepted a poisoned chalice, they get to take all the blame but get to exercise none of the power. The military have rigged this beautifully.

 

[butchersapron]

They are the chalice - or at least it's part constructors.

I said this in january 2001:

The only way the Muslim Brotherhood are getting anything out of this is through Mubarak and the US using them as a prop, using them to fill in the political/civil space that the protesters have battered open - Sadat used them to destroy the left post 1970 with such a manouvere and the US has repeatedly shown that it will support a regime involving such people if it thinks a) it will prove stable and b) in its medium term interests and c)temporary. They'll get nothing from the other side.

That's exactly what has now happened.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Apparently, chants in Tahrir of "down with military rule" and "we shall not leave, the military shall leave".

 

[audiotech]

For those who haven't seen the latest edition of Weekly Worker, an interesting piece on the 'party of counterrevolution: The Muslim Brotherhood's ideas and evolution'.

Once in power, in their first national outpost, they would not simply return to the conditions of the 7th century, but creatively adapt a purified Islam to fit in with the demands of modern technology - industrial production, air travel, telephones, etc. In other words, monopoly capitalism would be embraced. Despite that, in the meantime, Muslim socialism serves to hoodwink: part mythologised past, part protest against existing conditions, but always hostile to working class interests.

and:

...MB pays lip service to democracy. However, a fully consolidated MB regime would be an MB dictatorship with all that that would entail for independent trade unions, a free press, women’s rights, the Coptic minority, etc. Moreover, almost needless to say, an MB regime would not combine Islam and socialism, but Islam and monopoly capitalism. MB voices advocating egalitarianism have been bureaucratically silenced over recent years. Mursi explicitly pledged himself to preserve the so-called “free market” and rescue the tottering Egyptian economy by drawing on the $3.2 billion International Monetary Fund loan facility (agreed with MB participation). Naturally, MB’s present-day economic ‘renaissance’ would involve restructuring according to Islamic principles - in truth that can only mean further privatisations, further cuts and further suffering by the Egyptian masses.

 

[ayatollah]

For those who haven't seen the latest edition of Weekly Worker, an interesting piece on the 'party of counterrevolution: The Muslim Brotherhood's ideas and evolution'.


and:

Whilst everything said about the Muslim Brotherhood is quite true, and they may well have cut a deal with the Military ( "We oppress women, pogrom the Coptic Christians, and introduce Sharia Law and get big state funding handouts -- you keep all your robbed wealth and control over the armed forces, and real power" - that sort of thing)..... the MB has built its powerbase as a sort of parallel state - dispensing resources and services to Egypt's poorest for decades. Can the MB do the military and the IMF's bidding and still retain this powerbase amongst the poor ? Admittedly The theocratic dictatorship in Iran have managed to retain power for decades (using its highly organised paramilitaries drawn from the rural and urban poor to terrorise all opposition in a distinctly fascistic manner -- but they did smash the independent power of the military during the revolution - and until recently spent a LOT of money to retain their social support base amongst the rural and urban poor).

Chances are that if the MB do try to implement a full on "Islam plus monopoly capitalism programme", a LOT of popular support will move to the Left (who have been growing quickly during the long period of struggle). And we all know what happened to the Iranian Left. Lots of Grim, violent days ahead I suspect. Not a good time to be a Leftie, or woman generally, in Egypt.