Drought in Europe

[Flavour]

While the Paris Agreement talks about limiting global warming to 1.5° above pre-industrial levels (already a fantasy, of course), parts of Europe are experiencing temperatures as much as 4 degrees above normal this year, and the accompanying drought is terrifying.

It hasn't rained almost at all for several months in a large area of the continent.

Spain, France, Italy and even Belgium are all severely affected, and I can't see any way we avoid water rationing.

Where I live is particularly badly affected, and many rivers that are feed the Po have run completely dry.

This is an emergency today, and stopping the sale of petrol cars by 2035 is nowhere near radical enough a policy to combat this.

We need to stop burning fossil fuels completely, right now, and figure out how to reduce atmospheric CO2.

2022 European Drought - IFAB International Foundation

www.ifabfoundation.org

France and Spain swelter as Cyclone Yakecan wreaks havoc in South America

Analysis: Another week of extremes with peaks pushing 40C in Spain and a rare subtropical cyclone in Uruguay and Brazil

www.theguardian.com

Europe faces a future of extreme droughts

Mitigation and adaptation measures are going to be crucial for future farming on the continent

www.theguardian.com

France’s unprecedented drought shows climate change is ‘spiralling out of control’

As global warming accelerates, the spectre of drought haunts France’s once verdant farmland. Even now, before the start of summer, 15 administrative départements have had to restrict water use while…

www.france24.com

Belgian farmers struggle as drought and rising costs hit

An unusually dry spring has meant crop yields are so far much lower this year. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

 

[PTK]

While the Paris Agreement talks about limiting global warming to 1.5° above pre-industrial levels (already a fantasy, of course), parts of Europe are experiencing temperatures as much as 4 degrees above normal this year, and the accompanying drought is terrifying.

It hasn't rained almost at all for several months in a large area of the continent.

Spain, France, Italy and even Belgium are all severely affected, and I can't see any way we avoid water rationing.

Where I live is particularly badly affected, and many rivers that are feed the Po have run completely dry.

This is an emergency today, and stopping the sale of petrol cars by 2035 is nowhere near radical enough a policy to combat this.

We need to stop burning fossil fuels completely, right now, and figure out how to reduce atmospheric CO2.

2022 European Drought - IFAB International Foundation

www.ifabfoundation.org

France and Spain swelter as Cyclone Yakecan wreaks havoc in South America

Analysis: Another week of extremes with peaks pushing 40C in Spain and a rare subtropical cyclone in Uruguay and Brazil

www.theguardian.com

Europe faces a future of extreme droughts

Mitigation and adaptation measures are going to be crucial for future farming on the continent

www.theguardian.com

France’s unprecedented drought shows climate change is ‘spiralling out of control’

As global warming accelerates, the spectre of drought haunts France’s once verdant farmland. Even now, before the start of summer, 15 administrative départements have had to restrict water use while…

www.france24.com

Belgian farmers struggle as drought and rising costs hit

An unusually dry spring has meant crop yields are so far much lower this year. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

This is very worrying.

If we stop emitting all greenhouse gases today, temperatures will continue to rise for decades. We need to find ways of sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, but that is such an immense task I am confident that we can do.

 

[Pickman's model]

We need to find ways of sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, but that is such an immense task I am confident that we can do.

i wish i could share your confidence

 

[PTK]

i wish i could share your confidence

I missed out a "not". I am NOT confident that we will be able to suck out significant amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

 

[Pickman's model]

I missed out a "not". I am NOT confident that we will be able to suck out significant amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

oh. in which case i share your confidence.

 

[Signal 11]

This is very worrying.

If we stop emitting all greenhouse gases today, temperatures will continue to rise for decades. We need to find ways of sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, but that is such an immense task I am confident that we can do.

No, it would keep warming for a few decades if the concentration was kept constant, but with zero emissions the concentration would fall and the warming would stop.

Explainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached? - Carbon Brief

Warming is likely to more or less stop once net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is reached, meaning humans have the power to choose their climate future.

www.carbonbrief.org

 

[Pickman's model]

No, it would keep warming for a few decades if the concentration was kept constant, but with zero emissions the concentration would fall and the warming would stop.

Explainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached? - Carbon Brief

Warming is likely to more or less stop once net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is reached, meaning humans have the power to choose their climate future.

www.carbonbrief.org

hopefully.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

If they build those massive dams to seal in the North Sea the salt in it would eventually settle to the bottom* and we'd have a giant reservoir to use. Problem solved.

* probably

 

[Flavour]

you're all laughing about it now but come back to this in a few months when harvests have failed and the price of lots of goods the UK imports from mainland Europe (e.g. wine, oranges, pasta, lots of other fruit and veg) has shot up -- someone will blame it on Brexit but it won't be that.

 

[Pickman's model]

you're all laughing about it now but come back to this in a few months when harvests have failed and the price of lots of goods the UK imports from mainland Europe (e.g. wine, oranges, pasta, lots of other fruit and veg) has shot up -- someone will blame it on Brexit but it won't be that.

do you remember this? Disastrous season means UK shoppers could pay 50% more for pasta

 

[farmerbarleymow]

you're all laughing about it now but come back to this in a few months when harvests have failed and the price of lots of goods the UK imports from mainland Europe (e.g. wine, oranges, pasta, lots of other fruit and veg) has shot up -- someone will blame it on Brexit but it won't be that.

We'll be fine - we have turnips.

You can never go wrong when you have a turnip

 

[Pickman's model]

We'll be fine - we have turnips.

You can never go wrong when you have a turnip

i have always admired your optimism

 

[stavros]

I missed out a "not". I am NOT confident that we will be able to suck out significant amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

Whether we end up being able to or not, and in time or not, it still makes sense to have contingency plans in case we don't. That would be, erm , conservative.

 

[Flavour]

Areas of France are banning outdoor events cos of the heatwave

The Po is so low you can walk across the riverbed

 

[PTK]

No, it would keep warming for a few decades if the concentration was kept constant, but with zero emissions the concentration would fall and the warming would stop.

Explainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached? - Carbon Brief

Warming is likely to more or less stop once net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is reached, meaning humans have the power to choose their climate future.

www.carbonbrief.org

"Moreover, temperatures are expected to remain steady rather than dropping for a few centuries after emissions reach zero, meaning that the climate change that has already occurred will be difficult to reverse in the absence of large-scale net negative emissions"

according to the document by Carbon Brief that you posted.

The document also states that
“Melting glaciers and ice sheets and rising sea levels all occur slowly and lag behind surface temperature warming. A zero-emissions world would still result in rising sea levels for many centuries to come, with some estimates suggesting that at least 80cm of additional sea level rise is “locked in”.”

So, the effects we are experiencing now would not be mitigated for centuries if we cease all emissions of greenhouse gases now.

This is in accord with the analysis by the Royal Society, which states that, if emissions of CO2 stopped altogether

“Surface temperatures would stay elevated for at least a thousand years, implying a long-term commitment to a warmer planet due to past and current emissions”

“The current CO2-induced warming of Earth is therefore essentially irreversible on human timescales”.

20. If emissions of greenhouse gases were stopped, would the climate return to the conditions of 200 years ago? | Royal Society

 

[PTK]

"Moreover, temperatures are expected to remain steady rather than dropping for a few centuries after emissions reach zero, meaning that the climate change that has already occurred will be difficult to reverse in the absence of large-scale net negative emissions"

according to the document by Carbon Brief that you posted.

The document also states that
“Melting glaciers and ice sheets and rising sea levels all occur slowly and lag behind surface temperature warming. A zero-emissions world would still result in rising sea levels for many centuries to come, with some estimates suggesting that at least 80cm of additional sea level rise is “locked in”.”

So, the effects we are experiencing now would not be mitigated for centuries if we cease all emissions of greenhouse gases now.

This is in accord with the analysis by the Royal Society, which states that, if emissions of CO2 stopped altogether

“Surface temperatures would stay elevated for at least a thousand years, implying a long-term commitment to a warmer planet due to past and current emissions”

“The current CO2-induced warming of Earth is therefore essentially irreversible on human timescales”.

20. If emissions of greenhouse gases were stopped, would the climate return to the conditions of 200 years ago? | Royal Society

I agree that I was wrong. Global average temperatures would not continue to rise, if we had zero greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow. However, global average temperatures would not fall for centuries.

 

[Pickman's model]

I agree that I was wrong. Global average temperatures would not continue to rise, if we had zero greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow. However, global average temperatures would not fall for centuries.

by we do you mean no industrial emissions or emissions from human activity - do you exclude emissions from melting permafrost and coal mines?

 

[PTK]

by we do you mean no industrial emissions or emissions from human activity - do you exclude emissions from melting permafrost and coal mines?

If humans stopped causing the emission of greenhouse gasess by economic activity.

 

[weltweit]

I wonder if drought and high temperatures across Europe will focus minds?

Something has to prompt action.

Unfortunately the Ukraine war seems to have stolen all the press coverage from climate change.

 

[Pickman's model]

If humans stopped causing the emission of greenhouse gasess by economic activity.

Don't see how that'll stop the methane bubbling out of coalmines or from melting permafrost or from the Arctic waters.

 

[spring-peeper]

If humans stopped causing the emission of greenhouse gasess by economic activity.

imo, it is too late to do anything.

 

[Signal 11]

Don't see how that'll stop the methane bubbling out of coalmines or from melting permafrost or from the Arctic waters.

Currently those are tiny compared to emissions from burning fossil fuels. If we stopped right now we wouldn't need to worry about them.

Permafrost and the like are long term worst case issues. The real problems we have now are bad enough that we need to take drastic action.

 

[Signal 11]

imo, it is too late to do anything.

It doesn't work like that. The longer we go on increasing the CO2 level, the worse it will get. However late it has been left, it's still better to do what's needed than leave it even longer.

 

[Flavour]

It doesn't work like that. The longer we go on increasing the CO2 level, the worse it will get. However late it has been left, it's still better to do what's needed than leave it even longer.

As bad as 3 degrees of warming would be for the world, it is still preferable to 4 degrees of warming, as Andreas Malm said

 

[story]

i wish i could share your confidence

Me too.
I reckon it’s already too late.

 

[story]

It doesn't work like that. The longer we go on increasing the CO2 level, the worse it will get. However late it has been left, it's still better to do what's needed than leave it even longer.

This won’t happen though.
Humanity has become a boiling frog.

 

[spring-peeper]

It doesn't work like that. The longer we go on increasing the CO2 level, the worse it will get. However late it has been left, it's still better to do what's needed than leave it even longer.

We can attempt to slow it down, but it seems to be spirally out of control right now.

Over a decade ago, I took a two year course on environmental issues.
We held an open house and the press asked the woman beside me how she thought climate change could be stopped. She answered that it was too late. I don't think the reporter expected that answer, so looked around the group. We were all nodding in agreement.

Imo, all our individual efforts are useless until we ban such events as auto racing and air shows.

 

[Flavour]

It's not an "on/off" switch though, and this fatalism is literally the worst possible reaction to it all, because it invites inaction, apathy, shoulder shrugging. It's too late for what exactly? Too late to start even bothering to mitigate the worst possible effects of the climate crisis? That is insane and extremely selfish.

 

[weltweit]

..
Imo, all our individual efforts are useless until we ban such events as auto racing and air shows.

Even here there is hope. There is the electric car as being developed by many companies, and the Hydrogen car being developed by a few, then there is the Hydrogen aircraft as being developed by Airbus.

And there are renewables, wind, solar, and tide .. there is work going on ..

Occasionally I even see articles about scrubbing greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere, though these articles are not numerous it has to be said.

There is hope but it would be better if we were moving faster. And if all countries were moving forward at a similar speed. What Britain does is tiny compared to what the USA and China could do.

 

[story]

I don’t know about you but being aware that we’re past a threshold absolutely does not mean I don’t make the effort. I’ve not flown in a plane for anything other than emergency (mother unwell) for more than ten years, I don’t have a car, I recycle everything I can, I spend my money as responsibly as possible etc.

Today I walked past several shops that were blasting cold air out onto the pavement, the same shops that blast out warm air in the winter to entice shoppers in. These shops, today, probably cancelled out all the efforts I’ve made this entire year

Until something is done about this kind of consumerist profligacy. not enough is being done.