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Drought in Europe

It's not an "on/off" switch though, and this fatalism is literally the worst possible reaction to it all, because it invites inaction, apathy, shoulder shrugging. It's too late for what exactly? Too late to start even bothering to mitigate the worst possible effects of the climate crisis? That is insane and extremely selfish.

I am not selfish - what a terrible thing to say. You have no idea what my lifestyle is like, or where I live.
For example - while the rest of my community is chopping down trees to create farmland, we are stubbornly holding onto our 20 acre forest.

I am not saying to stop decreasing our attempts to slow it down, but everyone has to buy into the program.

Next door, down in the States, pickup trucks are outselling all cars. My puny actions will do little to combat the excessive polluting from those people.

I think the only way help reduce vehicle emissions is to show them they can save money buy choosing an alternative (electric cars in this case).
Maybe the high cost of gas may help people to realize that electric would be a better alternative.

The way we got our farmers to stop overfertilizing was to show them how much money they were wasting.
Since then, farming methods have be modified.
 
Currently those are tiny compared to emissions from burning fossil fuels. If we stopped right now we wouldn't need to worry about them.

Permafrost and the like are long term worst case issues. The real problems we have now are bad enough that we need to take drastic action.
Let's hope you're right. Let's hope that the gigatons of methane hydrates off the north coast of siberia don't bubble up in some great Arctic fart. Let's hope the tipping points haven't been reached but every bit of news from the Arctic is bloody awful.
 
I don’t know about you but being aware that we’re past a threshold absolutely does not mean I don’t make the effort. I’ve not flown in a plane for anything other than emergency (mother unwell) for more than ten years, I don’t have a car, I recycle everything I can, I spend my money as responsibly as possible etc.

Today I walked past several shops that were blasting cold air out onto the pavement, the same shops that blast out warm air in the winter to entice shoppers in. Until something is done about this kind of consumerist profligacy, not enough is being done.

It must be nice to have access to public transit :(

wrt to the heating and air conditioning - studies show that Canadians keep their houses cooler in the summer than in the winter. Waste, waste, waste.

We do not have air conditioning, we have windows and curtains.

Again with the save money concept, attitudes are slowly changing. Also, the stores are not as brightly lit anymore. Saves electricity.
 
Even here there is hope. There is the electric car as being developed by many companies, and the Hydrogen car being developed by a few, then there is the Hydrogen aircraft as being developed by Airbus.

And there are renewables, wind, solar, and tide .. there is work going on ..

Occasionally I even see articles about scrubbing greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere, though these articles are not numerous it has to be said.

There is hope but it would be better if we were moving faster. And if all countries were moving forward at a similar speed. What Britain does is tiny compared to what the USA and China could do.

I remember when measures such as trying to recapture carbon was seen as extreme and end stage, yet here we are not having achieved it yet.

Electric cars are only greener at the point of use. Making the electricity used is still a major source of pollution, and the batteries are also filthy so it’s not just carbon pollution.

The tundra is melting. The icecaps are melting. Glaciers have disappeared. Even if we switch everything off tonight and don’t turn it on again, it’s too late to retrieve these.

The world as we knew it is over.
Whatever comes next, whether it’s a filthy fireball or some cleaner greener more responsible version, our life on this planet is unsustainable, and we can never find a way to continue as we are. All the current supply chain and access luxuries we enjoy will disappear.

And the truth is that too few people either know or care enough to be engaged with this issue. Even now. When I see how much litter and trash there is, it gives me a really clear idea of how little people care for the environment. If someone is dropping trash in the street do you think they give a shit about any of the rest of it?

I‘m as angry and exasperated as the next person about this. But as many letters as I write, as much recycling and litter picking I do, it’s irrelevant if the larger powers - y’know, those ones that don’t give a single solitary shit about anyone outside their personal fiefdom -won’t make the necessary changes,

I’m not talking about some shadowy cabal here, just, like, our own dear leaders ffs. Do you really think Starmer and Johnson really actually care about the environment? Of course not. They care about their power base. So no legislation will be be introduced. they’d have done it by now ffs if it mattered to them.

When Tony Hayward lamented that he wanted his life back. That’s a bloke who could have actually made some meaningful changes, but he demonstrably didn’t give a shit abiut anything outside his own personal experience of peace and plenty.

We clearly aren’t going to man the barricades and hang them from the lampposts, else we’d have done it by now.
 
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It must be nice to have access to public transit :(

wrt to the heating and air conditioning - studies show that Canadians keep their houses cooler in the summer than in the winter. Waste, waste, waste.

We do not have air conditioning, we have windows and curtains.

Again with the save money concept, attitudes are slowly changing. Also, the stores are not as brightly lit anymore. Saves electricity.

In America too. I have to carry something to put on when I go into shops etc in the summer.
And despite the hot dry weather they use tumble driers to dry their laundry…. because it’s too hot to go outside and they feel icky when they go out there. They build long low houses with dark roofs. It’s all stupid.
 
Me too.
I reckon it’s already too late.
Already too late for what? If we stop producing greenhouse gases tomorrow, temperatures will not decrease on human timescales. However, according to the models, temperatures will stop increasing. Extreme weather events will continue to occur, and the frequency of them may increase, but things would be even worse if we did nothing.
 
True, but the internet is, at this point, completely essential to any efforts to organization to counteract the climate crisis

Exactly.
We are stuck in a reiterative loop of destruction now.

Like when everyone in a heatwave cranks up their a/c or dies of heat. Or the same for ridiculous cold weather, like in Texas when they had to run their cars to keep warm.
 
Already too late for what? If we stop producing greenhouse gases tomorrow, temperatures will not decrease on human timescales. However, according to the models, temperatures will stop increasing. Extreme weather events will continue to occur, and the frequency of them may increase, but things would be even worse if we did nothing.

Yes.
As I said, it is already too late.


Jaysus, I’m not arguing to do nothing. We need to keep trying, of course we do. I’m not quite at the stage of helplessness.

But to repeat. Even if we turn everything off tonight and never turn any of it on again, it’s already too late to save the world we knew. In fact, turning everything off also destroys the world we have lived in, but in a different way.

Until and unless we grasp that the world we lived in, that we currently live in, is absolutely unsustainable and must end, regardless of anything we do to maintain the status quo, we can’t save the things we really want to. Like easy access to food and heat/cool on demand.

We can’t continue as we are.
The changes we must make must be drastic.
Whatever we do next, the world as we currently experience it is over.

It’s the reluctance to accept this that hampers our efforts to make the necessary changes.
 
I remember when measures such as trying to recapture carbon was seen as extreme and end stage, yet here we are not having achieved it yet.
My feeling is we have to stop pumping it out before we will attempt to clean the atmosphere.
Electric cars are only greener at the point of use. Making the electricity used is still a major source of pollution, and the batteries are also filthy so it’s not just carbon pollution.
I did mention solar, wind and tide, there really is progress there. And RR are trying to create a modular nuclear reactor, more similar to the small reactors on nuclear submarines but which on land can provide energy for a few towns from each unit. There is progress towards clean electricity at least here in the UK. What the Chinese are doing I don't know, I expect they are still building coal powered stations at a rate.

And work continues to create fusion. It does always seem 20 years away, will we get there?
The tundra is melting. The icecaps are melting. Glaciers have disappeared. Even if we switch everything off tonight and don’t turn it on again, it’s too late to retrieve these.
I think that is too negative, the planet has been through various warming and cooling periods in its past, while the current heating trends are down to human created pollution - if that is fixed (If, I know) there is no reason why we might not eventually enter a new cooling period which could reinstate glaciers etc.
The world as we knew it is over.
Whatever comes next, whether it’s a filthy fireball or some cleaner greener more responsible version, our life on this planet is unsustainable, and we can never find a way to continue as we are. All the current supply chain and access luxuries we enjoy will disappear.
There are too many humans and we are pumping out too many greenhouse gasses. Change is essential and also possible.

And the truth is that too few people either know or care enough to be engaged with this issue. Even now. When I see how much litter and trash there is, it gives me a really clear idea of how little people care for the environment. If someone is dropping trash in the street do you think they give a shit about any of the rest of it?
37 years ago I hitchiked round Australia. On the main roads both sides even far out into the outback there was trash for 15m either side of the roads. They ate and drank as they drove and chucked the packaging out of their car windows. They didn't care about their beautiful outback. And they didn't use solar power even with the abundance of sun that they have. My understanding is that they are using it now.
I’m not talking about some shadowy cabal here, just, like, our own dear leaders ffs. Do you really think Starmer and Johnson really actually care about the environment? Of course not. They care about their power base. So no legislation will be be introduced. they’d have done it by now ffs if it mattered to them.
Don't you think the UK electric only car sales target is worth something? It has made the car industry sit up and take note and they are starting to reinvent themselves as electric car companies.

Personally, where I live there are at least 4 or 5 Teslas that I see regularly. One charges itself on my way to work attached to a very ordinary house. I wonder how they afford it, but they do.
 
My feeling is we have to stop pumping it out before we will attempt to clean the atmosphere.

I did mention solar, wind and tide, there really is progress there. And RR are trying to create a modular nuclear reactor, more similar to the small reactors on nuclear submarines but which on land can provide energy for a few towns from each unit. There is progress towards clean electricity at least here in the UK. What the Chinese are doing I don't know, I expect they are still building coal powered stations at a rate.

And work continues to create fusion. It does always seem 20 years away, will we get there?

I think that is too negative, the planet has been through various warming and cooling periods in its past, while the current heating trends are down to human created pollution - if that is fixed (If, I know) there is no reason why we might not eventually enter a new cooling period which could reinstate glaciers etc.

There are too many humans and we are pumping out too many greenhouse gasses. Change is essential and also possible.


37 years ago I hitchiked round Australia. On the main roads both sides even far out into the outback there was trash for 15m either side of the roads. They ate and drank as they drove and chucked the packaging out of their car windows. They didn't care about their beautiful outback. And they didn't use solar power even with the abundance of sun that they have. My understanding is that they are using it now.

Don't you think the UK electric only car sales target is worth something? It has made the car industry sit up and take note and they are starting to reinvent themselves as electric car companies.

Personally, where I live there are at least 4 or 5 Teslas that I see regularly. One charges itself on my way to work attached to a very ordinary house. I wonder how they afford it, but they do.

One is not exclusive to the other, we need to be deal with this crisis at both ends and everywhere in between. I hate the notion of climate engineering and when the idea was first mooted I thought it was very obviously a disaster in the making. So long as anyone thinks there will be a fix further along the line, they don’t bother fixing what’s immediately in the vicinity. Kicking the ball into the long grass, as I think the vernacular has it. But since we’re now where we are, let’s get on with it and try what we can to reverse some of the damage we’ve caused.

Wind, wave, solar, even nuclear…. Whatever has been achieved here is a piss in the ocean, and anyway does nothing to address the real and immense ongoing issues. These replacements can only ever reduce our impact from this point on, not change the damage we’ve already caused. And anyway, they’re not free, not completely. Manufacturing and dealing with resulting trash also has an impact. At this point even small negatives create large impact. Because we’ve arrived at the point where any accumulative result is all pouring over the edges. When a bath is overflowing, it matters not whether it’s an extra cup ful or a whole bucket that’s been added, the existing and ongoing water pouring over the edge is the actual problem. Also, until we solve the problem of nuclear pollution, it’s not really a solution is it, it’s just more kicking the problem into the long grass.

The truth is that the carbon problem is only one of several intractable concurrent issues. It’s the biggest and the most pressing, especially for us humans, but there are others that will have similarly catastrophic outcomes. Plastics is the next one. Then there’s the chemical residue we’ve shrouded the entire planet with. And the disaster we’ve created with our squandering of antibiotics is another (I’m not talking about humans here, I’m talking about bacteria, the wider environment). Plus all the other pharmceutical chemicals that are having real and seriously detrimental effects in animals (look up medicine/drugs environmental damage).

What the Chinese are doing is not the issue. What we are all doing, each of us, and collectively, that’s the issue. All those people who got stuck in airports last week, none of them decided not to fly, they all felt entitled to go off for a week to soak up some sun with the family. And why not, it’s important, even essential, to have a break, lay in the sunshine, spend time with family, give the kids an adventure. Our individual requirements trumps everything else. That is the world we are tying to hang on to, the world where we can make these choices with impunity. And it’s over, that world is ended. Plenty of us will strive to preserve it just by stubbornly continuing to live in the old ways. The Chinese coming up with clever ideas and planting forests and buying up tracts of land in Africa to feed their people won’t make any bloody difference to my decision to drive to Cornwall or not. Nor will they discourage Sikicon Valley from coming uo with her more ways to drain the life out of us via our screens. Tik Tok etc must be a huge fucking sump for energy, carbon etc. and the endless new devices with their wrap around screens too.

As for breakthroughs like fusion….. well, it’s a nice idea, eh. And no doubt some folks will continue to plug away at the question, just as there are others who are banging away in their shed trying to invent the perfect deckchair. So much scientific endeavour is done for its own sake and with no real useful outcome. How much energy and waste goes into the scientific endeavour? Maybe not enough if we’ve still not managed to work out fusion,

And there will always be curve balls, like the pandemic. Waste and a dramatic downturn in recycling in organisations like the NHS directly resulted from the pandemic. When they come to look at the layers, they’ll be able to see the pandemic as a thin layer of predominantly blue plastic amongst everything else.

It‘s true that the planet has been through many fluxes before, and will again for sure, This crisis is not about The Planet though. It’s about humanity, and our current civilisation. If we hadn’t fucked up our civilisation so badly, we wouldn’t be in this crisis in the first place. We took a bad turn somewhere and we’re now in a cul de sac.

It’s not true that there are too many humans. If you pile us up, or line us up, we take uo very little space. It’s our exploitative abusive lifestyle that’s the problem. Our addiction to luxury and our point blank refusal to experience any want or lack. That’s what’s at the root of inequality /poverty, and it has impoverished the natural environment too. There are enough resources (or there was before we fucked it up).

Australia: I bet they still litter, and they may do a bit of solar power (10% last yea) but my god they’ve fucked up their rivers.

UK electric cars. Too little too late. Why wasn’t it being done following the energy crisis in the 70s? And this idea that electric cars will save us is a falacy. Where do you think the electricity comes from? And the batteries are disastrous in different ways

Four or five Teslas in your neighbourhood is a novelty, as you demonstrate by mentioning them at all.

We have to keep trying, of course we do, anything else is madness.
But I really do think we’ve passed the point where we can save the world we currently live in.
 
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We have to keep trying, of course we do, anything else is madness.
But I really do think we’ve passed the point where we can save the world we currently live in.
I don't know if we are past that point, we might be and we might in a delusion carry on until it becomes apparent that we can't continue, the lights going out for example or extreme weather events.

I think the kicking it into the long grass is a result of the election cycle, no one set of politicians wants to do unpopular things lest they lose the next election as a result.

Wind tide solar nuclear are the ways we get to clean (non carbon) energy to charge all the electric cars and stop the pollution from energy and the tailpipes of all our petrol and diesel vehicles. In hindsight I probably shouldn't have mentioned solar because first Britain doesn't get so much sun and secondly I think government have ceased the grant assistance for domestic solar panels, and at full price they aren't so attractive. Tidal energy is promising and there are I believe tests going on in Scotland at the moment of tidal turbines, implementation is some way off though.

Wind is in a much better place, we have offshore wind which sidesteps the nimby issue neatly and as far as I can tell is expanding well. Still it only works when the wind blows and is still a fraction of the energy the grid needs daily.

And nuclear, well we have forgotten how to build nuclear reactors so have to rely on foreign companies to build new UK nuclear plants. But it is problematic I believe one Japanese consortium recently pulled out of a project to build a new UK nuclear reactor (the names don't spring to mind, was it Hitachi and Sizewell C?). I believe France's EDF is building one for us.

Yes nuclear creates an issue of waste which we still don't know what to do with apart from keeping it under review at Sellafield. But at least nuclear doesn't burn carbon and arguably should be used to provide the base load the grid needs when the sun doesn't shine (night) and the wind doesn't blow.

I am very encouraged by RR's small modular reactors concept and hope they get the go ahead to develop them into production. I think they are the sort of lateral thinking we need to prevent the lights going out because of all these new cars charging away! (and because we will have to take coal stations offline)

You dismiss China but the truth is that it almost does not matter what the UK does as respects carbon if China and the USA don't also reduce or eliminate their carbon emissions. We are tiny in respect of our pollution compared to China and the USA. We all have to tackle our emissions with some urgency.

Let us hope that Trump is not re-elected as he has already shown that he does not believe in climate change and him being in power would set the US back decades and set the wrong example for China and India.

The unfortunate effect of your curved balls that we find is that they take our eyes off the ball where climate change is concerned. We had the Glasgow conference which I believe went reasonably well, but then we had Covid-19 which deflected almost all media interest away from climate and then Russia invading Ukraine with the result that climate change has effectively been removed from media scrutiny, and became also forgotten in the public mind.

It is true that it isn't the nominal number of humans on the planet that is the issue, it is the economies and dirty industry and lifestyles that comes with them which is the problem causing climate change.

You also mentioned batteries and for the carbon free energy grid they are obviously essential as they are also for electric vehicles. You are right that they bring their own issues and problems of scarce exotic materials but there is also a mass of research going into battery design right now and my bet would be that the batteries of 20 years hence will be quite different material wise and offer much more in the way of performance compared to batteries of today.

In the meantime though I believe Cornwall has sizeable Lithium deposits so there could be development of mining again in the far south west.

That massive battery that Tesla built in South Australia for their grid, has to be a way forward, I am surprised there haven't yet been more, but I expect there will be.

I am a fan of engineering and I believe it will be engineers that will show us the way out of this crisis, politicians are not able or willing and in any case are in the main inexpert.
 
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you're all laughing about it now but come back to this in a few months when harvests have failed and the price of lots of goods the UK imports from mainland Europe (e.g. wine, oranges, pasta, lots of other fruit and veg) has shot up -- someone will blame it on Brexit but it won't be that.
Of course not, it will all be NATO's fault...
 
It's never too late.

This is a key life lesson.

Am I fuck going to stop driving my petrol car though.
 
While the Paris Agreement talks about limiting global warming to 1.5° above pre-industrial levels (already a fantasy, of course), parts of Europe are experiencing temperatures as much as 4 degrees above normal this year, and the accompanying drought is terrifying.

It hasn't rained almost at all for several months in a large area of the continent.

Spain, France, Italy and even Belgium are all severely affected, and I can't see any way we avoid water rationing.

Where I live is particularly badly affected, and many rivers that are feed the Po have run completely dry.

This is an emergency today, and stopping the sale of petrol cars by 2035 is nowhere near radical enough a policy to combat this.

We need to stop burning fossil fuels completely, right now, and figure out how to reduce atmospheric CO2.





Rainfall is low in England too

 
Rainfall is low in England too



We’ve had some torrential bits but I was looking at this in April and apparently we’ve had consecutively some of the driest springs we’ve had. This year being particularly bad, very little rain from Jan onwards
 
it takes a couple of years but eventually the UK too will go from "oh this is nice weather isn't it, hasn't rained for ages! how unusual!" to "... isn't it meant to rain occasionally?"
 
it takes a couple of years but eventually the UK too will go from "oh this is nice weather isn't it, hasn't rained for ages! how unusual!" to "... isn't it meant to rain occasionally?"
Iirc the predicted model is dry"summers" (including spring) and wet winters with more flooding at that time
 

Im quite interested in desalination (as you do)...I found an article recently that was quite technical (beyond me) but gave a good outline of the advances being made, but limitations still faced

Basically if the energy aspect can be cracked desalination technology has the potential to make much of scorched earth an eden, through irrigation and whatnot....

looking at the advances in solar power and especially fusion, that might be a reality by the end of the century...i wish i could live to see it. But it all is coming too late to what is needed now.

The additional worry is that if rich hot places like California get desperate they will start desalinating, even with the energy cost and subsequent ecological damage of that extra energy use has. - a vicious cycle really

But yeah highly energy efficient desalination technology could see the end of droughts...one day
 
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Im quite interested in desalination (as you do)...I found an article recently that was quite technical (beyond me) but gave a good outline of the advances being made, but limitations still faced

Basically if the energy aspect can be cracked desalination technology has the potential to make much of scorched earth an eden, though irrigation and whatnot....

looking at the advances in solar power and especially fusion, that might be a reality by the end of the century...i wish i could live to see it. But it all is coming too late to what is needed now.

The additional worry is that if rich hot places like California get desperate they will start desalinating, even with the energy cost and subsequent ecological damage of that extra energy use has. - a vicious cycle really

But yeah highly energy efficient desalination technology could see the end of droughts...one day
Or we could just do something about emissions and the rest should follow
 
Iirc the predicted model is dry"summers" (including spring) and wet winters with more flooding at that time

Odd monsoon seasons like last year to, July was a washout, we'll be wet but it'll be very much all at once rather than continuously.
 
Rainfall is low in England too

Provisional data indicates that tended to continue through May - a trend largely evident for the best part of a year now.
May 2022 UK rainfall amount as % of 1991-2020 average, Met Office. Summer 2021 UK rainfall amount as % of 1991-2020 average, Met Office. Autumn 2021 UK rainfall amount as % of 1991-2020 average, Met Office. Winter 2022 UK rainfall amount as % of 1991-2020 average, Met Office. Spring 2022 UK rainfall amount as % of 1991-2020 average, Met Office.
 
crazy pictures of dried up italian rivers here

the last para of the article says rain is 65% less than what it normally is in the Veneto region, and that it hasn't rained for 110 days consecutively. Agricultural losses will be between 50 and 100% of yield. The Adige river is 24% lower than normal, the Brenta 43%, the Bacchiglione 58% and the Po 47%.
 
While the Paris Agreement talks about limiting global warming to 1.5° above pre-industrial levels (already a fantasy, of course), parts of Europe are experiencing temperatures as much as 4 degrees above normal this year, and the accompanying drought is terrifying.

It hasn't rained almost at all for several months in a large area of the continent.

Spain, France, Italy and even Belgium are all severely affected, and I can't see any way we avoid water rationing.

Where I live is particularly badly affected, and many rivers that are feed the Po have run completely dry.

This is an emergency today, and stopping the sale of petrol cars by 2035 is nowhere near radical enough a policy to combat this.

We need to stop burning fossil fuels completely, right now, and figure out how to reduce atmospheric CO2.





And yet there they are, all drivng to work again this morning. Wankers. Why is it acceptable for others to destroy the planet we all have to live on?

Stop taking part in the whole illusion. Is the ONLY solution.
 
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