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Donald Trump, the road that might not lead to the White House!

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The claim was, specifically, 'a considerable number'. It is reasonable to ask what that means and examine the evidence for it. The claim in that article is 'millions', but it doesn't back this up. In fact, several indicators suggest this may not be the case.
And as i said, that article is as far as anyone can go right now and uses the sources most acceptable/commonly used right now. To demand any more is to effectively reject the claim before the evidence required to do so is available seems and so seems to pretty much cutting the feet out from underneath your original request. And i think you know that when the figures do come exactly what they will show.
 
What do we think of this one? From Keith Hart's Facebook page:

Capitalism, revolution and racism in the US and the world

This is an indirect reflection that precedes a fuller analysis of Trump's campaign and presidency, as we learn more from his first actions as president, and connects it to my own political and intellectual trajectory (1800 words).

In the aftermath of Trump’s victory, we would do well to recall Hegel’s maxim that sameness-in-difference moves history. Even poor mad Max Weber used a similar argument to moderate the polarised Methodenstreit (Battle over Methods) between Berlin and Vienna about economics in the late 19th century. We would not be interested in the Greeks if they were the same as us, he wrote, and we couldn't understand them, if they were completely different.

In this context, I am reminded of my reaction to Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine, the movie about two boys who shot up their school. Moore grew up in Flint Michigan, a city that is plagued by the worst racism in the state and maybe for some distance beyond. It goes way back and deep. It was not created by neoliberalism, but was probably exacerbated by it. I don't know about that. It needs a historical perspective anyway. Moore asks, why is it that Canadians have as many guns as Americans (this may have changed lately), but kill people with them hardly at all. He takes a historical perspective, but it is literally a cartoon version. He says that Americans kill so many as a direct result of the racist origins of the country, rooted in slavery and fear of Negro revolts.
 
Two books were published in 1938 by the Trinidadian writer and revolutionary, C.L.R. James: The Black Jacobins about the Haitian revolution and A History of Negro (now Pan-African) Revolt which takes the story forward on both sides of the Atlantic via the US in the early 19th century and the civil war up to the imminent prospects for Africans to overthrow colonial empire. James, who had been the most prominent Trotskyist in Britain but later repudiated the idea of the party altogether, told Trotsky in Mexico that he had got racism in the US all wrong and hated the duplicitous attitude to race and class there of the Stalinists (whose assassins were shooting at him in 30s Paris when he was researching the Haitian revolution). He wrote an unpublished text in the early 1950s when he was being ejected from the US after 15 years. Anna Grimshaw and I edited it for publication as American Civilization in 1993. We thought it bore comparison with Tocqueville on whom James draws explicitly, as well as Melville and Whitman, but mainly on US popular arts in the mid-20th century. It has been allowed to go out of print, but you can currently pick up a copy on Amazon for $15 (US) or £10 (UK) and there is the online bootleg option of course.

I learned more from James than anyone else -- I now usually call him my mentor, as he was for lots of others -- both from his many books and from the years we spent together (with Anna) before he died in 1989, between Tiananmen Square and the Berlin Wall. I will never forget watching the first with him on TV as a young man tried to obstruct the tanks. The occasion of the student protest was a meeting attended by Gorbachev. James held that there were only two world revolutions left -- the second Russian revolution and the second American revolution (an idea later taken up by his close associate, Grace Lee Boggs). He once wrote a wonderful article comparing the American civil rights movement in 1956 with Nkrumah's Ghana revolution and the Hungarian revolution in the same year. He exaggerated the significance of Poland's Solidarity, but he was right about Africa on the eve of WW2 and no-one, Europeans and Africans alike, believed in such a possibility then. James dissented from the radical left in the North who insisted that their revolution must come first and then they would give independence to the Africans.

Anyway, we were watching TV in May 1989, enthralled along with half the world; and CLR said to me "The Chinese communists will put the students down easily, but the Russians won't hold onto Eastern Europe after this". He died a fortnight later at the age of 88, so he didn't see the Berlin Wall come down six months afterwards. Now we know that the collapse of the Soviet bloc was not the second Russian revolution.

My theme is capitalism, racism and revolution in the US and the world now, so back to Bowling for Columbine. I almost wept when I saw that cartoon blaming US violence on racism. The root cause of our ills is private property, its indifference or hostility to the public interest. One of Marx's first campaigns as a journalist in Westphalia was about the evils of private property, epitomized then by local landowners removing the peasants' right to take fallen wood from the forests. Nowhere has the dominance of private property been more developed than in the US and (perhaps) never so far as in the Gilded Age which ended as WW1 and in the neoliberal era that is now collapsing around our ears.

Americans have much less social protection (welfare state) than Canada or Western Europe, even though for some decades now the latter’s governments have rushed to follow the US' example. The BRICS governments (China, India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa), all in their own distinctive way and mainly just for the sake of their own survival, have been trying to expand social protection for the millions recently brought into urban labour markets without it. This echoes the era of developmental states, les trente glorieuses after 1945 in the industrial West, the post-colonial states and the Soviet bloc, based on a drive to increase working people's purchasing power and public spending, as well as the regulation of money and markets and international solidarity. That was the last world revolution and it set off the biggest economic boom in world history. The neoliberalism of Thatcher and Reagan at the end of the 1970s was the counter-revolution.

It is because most American families have had so little to save them from the ravages of capital and markets based on private property that they turned to violence (domestic and public), religion and racism on a scale unmatched in the leading countries, except perhaps in South Africa. The last four decades or so have made this worse in the Anglophone countries, led by the US and Wall St in particular. In 2011, with the Arab Spring and Occupy, I thought that the world was on the move in a good direction. Remember the demonstrations in so many cities around the world when Occupy first happened? Many reacted with enthusiasm to the status quo being challenged at the heart of global empire.

We have since learned, as after WW1 and WW2, that the race is now on to determine what kind of state will rule the world, both in response to the ruin (actual and prospective) of societies and the world economy and to repair the damage brought about by reckless and lawless globalization. The contenders before were welfare state democracy, fascism and communism, then the so-called free market (prosecuted by the largest anti-market collective in world history, the Pentagon) and the 'socialism' of the state capitalist Soviet bloc. The world has recently been brought closer together by neoliberal markets, telecommunications and cheap transport -- closer, but more divided and unequal at the same time, an explosive recipe.

Federalism and the nation-state are still the main constitutional options as they were 200 years ago. Most of the big countries have their own federal origins, but they have become more like nation-states since WW2. This is especially true of the US and may become more so under Trump. The EU, which I once saw as a beacon for the federal option -- that's one reason I have lived in Paris for the last two decades -- has become an undemocratic bullies’ club. It takes something to endow a mess like Brexit with a veneer of justification. I would not put it past the Europeans to launch WW3, as they did the previous two.

What was new about neoliberalism, after all? Politicians have always needed money and moneymen political cover. They have been in bed together for at least 300 or 400 years and probably always were. But they usually kept it under wraps, if they could. The Bank of England, Banque de France and Federal Reserve are all based on private capital, but present themselves as an agency made by and serving the public interest. The difference from this old story now is that neoliberals make a public virtue of this situation. God knows what variant of it Trump will come up with.

In the meantime, we worry about what Trump is going to do -- and we have every reason to. But protesting in the streets won't do the job, at least by itself. We need ways of imagining a better future, based on historical perspective and contemporary realism -- Hegel's movement from the actual to the possible (and before him Rousseau, afterwards Marx and Lenin). The present has deep roots in the past and is global, not just national. My Facebook page is framed by a shot of Tahrir Square at night -- all that stirring agitation and animation, with cell-phone cameras flashing all around. It looks like something by Delacroix or Géricault. We all know what happened next in Egypt and its region.

James held that most people just want to keep what they have most of the time -- and that is a good thing, he said, since society would be impossible if it was run by a small cadre of professional agitators like him who spend all their time plotting to turn everything upside down. But as Marx pointed out, the revolution (and to a lesser extent, total war) comes like a thief in the night when no-one is expecting it. People now discover that they have lost most of what they had or are about to unless they do something about it; and many of them join in with gusto. He would make up, as an illustrative example (he was also a novelist): You see this guy at the bus-stop every day, with rolled umbrella and bowler hat, buttoned up, never speaks to anyone. When the revolution comes, he can be seen in his shirt sleeves organizing a street committee. In the revolution itself, the radical left may assume a position of leadership since they have been dreaming about and planning revolution all their lives. Or not, of course -- it depends on who they are. Read Lenin's, Trotsky's and Mao's life histories and learn from that.


Paris
12th November 2016
 
How could these 'masters of the universe' be so stupid?

Long years of success do tend to degrade an organization's competence. The US political class has been in charge (in one way or another) for at least the past twenty years, playing the same game over and over, almost always against itself and whoever came along from outside was always going to give them trouble; in some ways it is a relief that it is someone as obviously flawed as Trump.
 
The DNC spent $1 million on online trolls which basically just went on reddit and facebook and twitter to call Bernie Sanders' supporters racist and sexist and only $300,000 on outreach to the demographic which they openly admitted they were relying on electorally.

Incredible.

It goes beyond stupidity.

I wonder whether they had advisors from the NEC over there.
 
The claim was, specifically, 'a considerable number'. It is reasonable to ask what that means and examine the evidence for it. The claim in that article is 'millions', but it doesn't back this up. In fact, several indicators suggest this may not be the case.

This is just one quote from a long piece which I haven't fully read and digested properly but I don't think it can be simply dismissed
Mr. Trump also won over millions of voters who had once flocked to President Obama’s promise of hope and change, and who on Tuesday saw in Mr. Trump their best chance to dampen the most painful blows of globalization and trade, to fight special interests, and to be heard and protected. Twelve percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters approved of Mr. Obama, according to the exit polls.

Twelve percent of 60 million is 7.2 million votes.

"Approved of" is not the same as "voted for", but it isn't ridiculous at this stage to say that maybe 2 million did vote for Obama, or to suggest that this number was not just considerable but, all else being equal, the difference between winning and losing.
 
"Approved of" is not the same as "voted for", but it isn't ridiculous at this stage to say that maybe 2 million did vote for Obama, or to suggest that this number was not just considerable but, all else being equal, the difference between winning and losing.

I would be amazed if it isn't a lot higher than 2 million.
 
How could HRC lose the Midwest states and the union member vote in many of them?

Hmm..

Let's compare.



and

CxH8ExxWgAAi20U.jpg


vs



and

Top Clinton Ally: "Black Lives Don't Matter to Bernie Sanders"
 
Its the U.K, but have a look at Momentums's FB page to see how they will never win wider support. it just keeps posting about Trump, identity politics, etc, all have a place, but there is no mention of the hard diligent good work local groups are doing on housing, social security, zhc, etc,, it gives a false impression of Momentum being like say the SWP with the band wagon jumping..
 
Is it possible to figure out (or make a good guess at) how much of the result was due to people enthusiastically supporting Trump and how much of it was Clinton losing because people did not want her?
The people who bought the baseball cap and cheered at his rallies, it's hard for me to not feel frightened of them, because of the nature of his campaign and the kinds of people who actively spoke in his favour etc.
But for all their noise and all the mountains of publicity they got, it does look like it's the people who didn't vote for Clinton rather than those who loved Trump who actually made the difference.
eg) only 13% of voters said that the idea of Trump for president made them feel excited, and that's not a lot.
View attachment 95427
Who the 2% are who said the idea scared them but went and voted for him anyway is a proper mystery though.
Change is scary, but sometimes necessary. not I am saying a Trump win is necessary .

Another intresting result from that poll (still on phone so no pretty picture).

Best description of vote
I strongly favor my candidate
53% Clinton
42% Trump
I like my candidate but with reservations
48% Clinton
49% Trump
I dislike the other candidates
39% Clinton
51% Trump
 
How could HRC lose the Midwest states and the union member vote in many of them?

Hmm..

Let's compare.



and

CxH8ExxWgAAi20U.jpg


vs



and

Top Clinton Ally: "Black Lives Don't Matter to Bernie Sanders"


World in crisis or back to normal soon? I think I know... | Nick Cohen

You can only argue against committed supporters of Trump. If they believe all Mexicans are rapists and Muslims terrorists, you cannot compromise without betraying your principles. Fair enough. But before you become self-righteous you must accept that the dominant faction on the western left uses language just as suggestive of collective punishment when they talk about their own white working class. Imagine how it must feel for a worker in Bruce Springsteen’s Youngstown to hear college-educated liberals condemn “white privilege” when he has a shit job and a miserable life. Or Google the number of times “straight white males” are denounced by public-school educated women in the liberal media and think how that sounds to an ex-miner coughing his guts up in a Yorkshire council flat.

Emotionally, as well as rationally, they sense the left, or at least the left they see and hear, is no longer their friend. They are men and women who could be argued with, if the middle classes were willing to treat them decently. You might change their minds. You might even find that they could change yours. Instead of hearing an argument, they see liberals who call the police to suppress not only genuine hate speech that incites violence but any uncouth or “inappropriate” transgression.

For too many in the poor neighbourhoods of the west, middle-class liberals have become like their bosses at work. They tell you what you can and can’t think. They warn that you must accept their superiority and you will be in no end of trouble if you do not.

Nick Cohen seems to be getting it, well a bit.
 
797755924240887808

Text of leaked British diplomatic cable sent on November 9 by Sir Kim Darroch, British ambassador to Washington.

It bears repeating that this soon to be president-elect is above all an outsider and an unknown quantity, whose campaign pronouncements may reveal his instincts, but will surely evolve and, particularly, be open to outside influence if pitched right. And having, we believe, built better relationships with his team than have the rest of Washington diplomatic corps, we should be well placed to do this.

Naive idiot.
 
What sort of self-image do you have ferrel? From the Scottish referendum to the brexit and trump you're been providing us with regular i know better (didn't spot a single one of the former mind) communiques. Are you, as a doctor of sausages, above the rest of us?
 
Yes. But before the current election.
So being light on gun control was not really a way of flagging being down with the working class is it.

In 2008 HRC attacked Obama from the right on guns, in 2016 she attacked Sanders from a more pro-control standpoint. There are plenty of Democrats who campaign on pro-gun platforms still, in fact almost all of them do.

It's not even about gun control either way, I posted that picture and the video because they were examples of Obama deliberately trying to win over the votes of working-class voters in majority white areas of the country. Clinton just did not do that, her team believed that they did not need the white working-class anymore and as you can see in the video I have repeatedly linked to some of her surrogates actively celebrated the solution to the 'problem' of white males which is apparently 'the end of straight white males'. They were all wrong, and the whole world is going to pay the price for that.
 
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