Donald Trump, the road that might not lead to the White House!

[bimble]

When's the second article from?

1932 (also nyt)

 

[Pickman's model]

1932 (also nyt)

Aha. that sounds about right.

 

[bimble]

Why does it say that the fascist movement started as a joke, do you know?

 

[J Ed]

Now that we know what a racist is - where is the evidence that racists have voted for black candidates in the past?

I don't know about racists but there is a considerable number of people who voted for Trump but voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

 

[butchersapron]

Why does it say that the fascist movement started as a joke, do you know?

It doesn't. It says it has developed from being seen as a joke of a minor party with little expectation of electoral or popular success in the mid-late 20s to the largest party in the country.

 

[killer b]

As far as I can see, you're falling back into your all-too-typical habit of distorting what someone has said, and then attacking them for saying what they haven't said.

I'm not dismissing anyone's concerns, and I'm not saying people shouldn't talk about racism. And I'm certainly not saying that racism isn't a factor, one amongst many.

There have been a number of people here saying that Trump's win was entirely down to the ignorance/racism/misogyny of those who supported him, including those mainly working class voters who previously voted for and ensured the election of Obama.

It may cathartic for people to express their fears and concerns in that way, but when it comes to understanding, explaining and learning from what happened, I don't think it's particularly helpful, which is why I've been trying to argue that there is more to the Trump victory than that. Not denying the racism, but saying that it's not the whole story.

This is particularly important, IMO, because so much of the Clinton campaign focussed on monstering Trump and his views, and so little was done about giving potential Democrat voters something positive to vote for. And we've all seen how well that worked.



So are you telling me I'm stupid and wrong for supposedly telling other people they're stupid and wrong?

That's not a very effective tactic, especially when it's based on a dishonest misrepresentation of wht I'm actually saying.

If this is an 'attack', it's a pretty mild one. I'm not dismissing your posts as 'dangerous twaddle', or simplistic, or ridiculous. Just suggesting a less combative debate might be more fruitful.

Butchers says on the other thread that the same people have been saying the same thing about the roots of the current crisis for 20 years, and no-one has listened. If that's true - and surely it is - then maybe we'd all benefit from looking at how we talk to other people about politics.

 

[J Ed]

Democrats Hoping ‘Trump Effect’ Would Drive Latino Turnout Neglected Engagement Work | The Huffington Post

On Sept. 5, 2014, Democratic National Committee leaders received a proposal for a plan to boost the Hispanic voter turnout rate using direct mail, phone calls, radio ads and news media appearances. The plan urged that the party focus on Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas. The cost: $3 million.

The author of the proposal, then-DNC Hispanic Engagement Director Albert Morales, stayed at the committee until 2016, trying to cobble together a budget to build a robust Latino engagement effort. While Democrats publicly gloated about the country’s changing demographics, Morales worried his party wouldn’t capitalize on the shift. The Republican National Committee, despite later selecting Donald Trump as its presidential nominee, was devoting significant resources to Hispanic outreach, including permanent Hispanic staff in 10 states.

“I just asked for what I needed,” Morales told HuffPost. “I ended up getting closer to $300,000 and it all went to radio. … It was just pitiful.”

Trump’s surprising defeat of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has sparked spirited finger-pointing and soul-searching among party leaders. The question of whether Democrats should have done more to win Latino votes is high on the list.

Media reports trumpeted a Hispanic voter “surge” in last week’s election. But it won’t be clear whether the Hispanic turnout rate rose significantly until the census releases its voter report in the spring, according to Mark Hugo Lopez at the Pew Research Center’s Hispanic Trends Project.

Hispanic turnout has broken records for the last few presidential elections, based partly on population growth. Still, it continues to lag far beyond turnout rates for non-Hispanic whites and blacks.

Both Morales and Pablo Manriquez, who worked for a year and a half as the DNC’s Hispanic media director, described an atmosphere in which their pleas to invest in Latino engagement often were met with disinterest. Manriquez said he at times paid his own bus fare and slept on friends’ sofas to meet with Hispanic television and news executives in New York.

“There was only one other Hispanic in the entire third floor,” Manriquez said of his time at the DNC. “And when I did see one I had to speak to them in Spanish so people wouldn’t try to undercut us from doing our job.”

Both Morales and Manriquez left the DNC during the presidential campaign, leaving the committee for weeks without a Spanish speaker on its media staff.

All of this is just incredible to me.

 

[J Ed]

In North Carolina and Florida, is the Trump voter suppression plan working?

Although the makeup of Florida’s electorate has changed since 2012, Smith believes the lower than expected turnout – which matches a downturn in the early black vote in at least seven other states – is particularly worrying for Democrats in a state where recent polls suggested African American voters favoured Clinton over Trump by a 93 to 4 margin. Obama’s victory over Romney in the state was by fewer than 75,000 votes and a 0.88 point margin.

Henry Crespo, president of the Democratic Black Caucus of Florida, told the Guardian he was also concerned, noting that Obama’s intensive ground strategy and black voter outreach paid dividends in 2012.

“We are lagging based on some numbers of black early vote participation, so going into these areas is so important,” he said. “The church has always been a bedrock of engaging people outside of other more traditional activities. That helps the word get out. That grandmother or that aunt or that granddad is a traditional churchgoer; if you engage that population they will ultimately engage their grandchildren, their nephews and so forth. It’s a strategy that’s a good approach given that we’re lacking in certain areas.”

They thought she was so inevitable that they didn't think that they really had to bother to win the votes which they thought they were entitled to.

 

[bimble]

There are doubtless others here who are better at interpreting statistics than I am, so I will leave it to them to do so, but yes, knowing what the proportion of each of those groups are makes it far more meaningful than not knowing.

Found something, which suggests that the number one reason for voting Trump was that he isn't Clinton.


In Their Own Words: Why Voters Support – and Have Concerns About – Clinton and Trump

lots more stuff here
A Divided and Pessimistic Electorate

 

[J Ed]

Found something, which by a small margin suggests that the number one reason for voting Trump was that he isn't Clinton.

View attachment 95432
In Their Own Words: Why Voters Support – and Have Concerns About – Clinton and Trump

lots more stuff here
A Divided and Pessimistic Electorate

Clinton is the worst person that the DNC could have conceivably run.

Even with Clinton, they could have beaten Donald Trump very fucking easily. Bernie on the ballot, $15 minimum wage, actually campaigning like Trump did instead of hobnobing with billionaire donors, doing the same sort of outreach that Obama did in 2008 and 2012, not being openly contemptuous of working-class voters and not attacking Trump on the basis that he is not actually rich. Any of these things would have swung it.

It was an exceptionally bad campaign from an exceptionally vulnerable candidate.

 

[Orang Utan]

A graph, yesterday:

 

[butchersapron]

And there's 18 million more voters since 2008

 

[Combustible]

A graph, yesterday:
View attachment 95433

Where are those numbers from?

e.g CNN says
Trump - 60,350,241
Clinton - 60,981,118

Where are those extra 8 million or so Clinton votes from (and why is Trump shown as not exceeding 60 million)

 

[J Ed]

The DNC spent $1 million on online trolls which basically just went on reddit and facebook and twitter to call Bernie Sanders' supporters racist and sexist and only $300,000 on outreach to the demographic which they openly admitted they were relying on electorally.

Incredible.

It goes beyond stupidity.

 

[Orang Utan]

Where are those numbers from?

Not sure, it's all over Twitter

 

[J Ed]

How could these 'masters of the universe' be so stupid?

 

[belboid]

Where are those numbers from?

e.g CNN says
Trump - 60,350,241
Clinton - 60,981,118

Where are those extra 8 million or so Clinton votes from (and why is Trump shown as not exceeding 60 million)

From before the 48th state results came in. And there aren't an extra 8 million Clinton voters, there were 8 million more people who voted for Obama the first time around

 

[Combustible]

From before the 48th state results came in. And there aren't an extra 8 million Clinton voters, there were 8 million more people who voted for Obama the first time around

Oops should pay more attention...

 

[TomUS]

Democrats Hoping ‘Trump Effect’ Would Drive Latino Turnout Neglected Engagement Work | The Huffington Post



All of this is just incredible to me.

Yes, amazingly stupid. Hispanics have a traditionally low turnout rate compared to whites & blacks but the Hillary camp just took it for granted.....assumed Trump was doing their job for them.

 

[J Ed]

Yes, amazingly stupid. Hispanics have a traditionally low turnout rate compared to whites & blacks but the Hillary camp just took it for granted.....assumed Trump was doing their job for them.

If the leading members of the DNC had any decency they would just shoot themselves.

 

[butchersapron]

If the leading members of the DNC had any decency they would just shoot themselves.

If the membership had any decency they would have shot them already.

 

[DotCommunist]

How could these 'masters of the universe' be so stupid?

bone deep arrogance, learned in private schooling, combined with hubris contempt and entitlement.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Trump Wants to Let Wall Street Scam Customers Again Because of Course He Does

Where do people want to focus all the attention.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't know about racists but there is a considerable number of people who voted for Trump but voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Can you quantify 'considerable'? Trump appears to have won fewer votes than Romney or McCain, after all.

 

[Casually Red]

How was she any more shite than any other candidate put up by either party during my lifetime? How was she so much worse than Donald Trump? Jesus.

I've had to point out why she was worse repeatedly on this thread . Couldn't be arsed doing it again especially now she's a footnote .

 

[J Ed]

Can you quantify 'considerable'? Trump appears to have won fewer votes than Romney or McCain, after all.

2016: The Revenge Of The White Working Class Voter, And Where Millions Of Obama Supporters Flipped For Trump

I'm sure we will have to wait to get more exact numbers but it's clearly in the millions just of voters who voted for Obama in 2012, let alone 2008.

 

[andysays]

Found something, which suggests that the number one reason for voting Trump was that he isn't Clinton...

And vice versa.

Obama actually managed to build a coalition of voters based on some sort of hope for the future.

Clinton's campaign (and it's not merely down to her as an individual, TBF) didn't even bother to attempt such a thing.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

2016: The Revenge Of The White Working Class Voter, And Where Millions Of Obama Supporters Flipped For Trump

I'm sure we will have to wait to get more exact numbers but it's clearly in the millions just of voters who voted for Obama in 2012, let alone 2008.

Well that article says 'millions of Obama supporters flipped', but it doesn't back that up with figures, and it says this after examining all kinds of other explanations - primarily, people who voted Obama either not voting this time at all or voting for a third candidate; and new voters coming out and voting Trump when they'd never voted before. On the face of it, the figures, such as the one stating that Trump scored a lower percentage of the white vote than Romney, combined with the overall lower vote than either Romney or McCain, suggest that flipping former Obama supporters may not be the major factor here - getting the respective votes out was more important.

 

[butchersapron]

Well that article says 'millions of Obama supporters flipped', but it doesn't back that up with figures, and it says this after examining all kinds of other explanations - primarily, people who voted Obama either not voting this time at all or voting for a third candidate; and new voters coming out and voting Trump when they'd never voted before. On the face of it, the figures, such as the one stating that Trump scored a lower percentage of the white vote than Romney, combined with the overall lower vote than either Romney or McCain, suggest that flipping former Obama supporters may not be the major factor here - getting the respective votes out was more important.

The article goes as far as possible, with as creditable figures possible right now to suggest that many obama voters voted trump - and in key areas. That's the only claims that can be made right now, and that evidence offered is the only stuff availible right now. I'm not sure what else you can reasonably demand - there's certainly not enough to reject outright the suggestion is there? And the claim wasn't about them being the major factor behind the result, just of their existence.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The article goes as far as possible, with as creditable figures possible right now to suggest that many obama voters voted trump - and in key areas. That's the only claims that can be made right now, and that evidence offered is the only stuff availible right now. I'm not sure what else you can reasonably demand - there's certainly not enough to reject outright the suggestion is there? And the claim wasn't about them being the major factor behind the result, just of their existence.

The claim was, specifically, 'a considerable number'. It is reasonable to ask what that means and examine the evidence for it. The claim in that article is 'millions', but it doesn't back this up. In fact, several indicators suggest this may not be the case.