Donald Trump the road that might not lead to the White House - Redux 2024 thread.

[chandlerp]

Indeed. Quite a strong correlation between economic hardship and voting for Trump...

You can't fix stupid

 

[ignatious]

Strictly, the correlation there is between voting Trump and stating that you faced economic hardship due to inflation.

While the point is still clear, we need to be a little cautious. There will also be some correlation between how you report that you're doing and your political viewpoint. These are not independent variables.

Well, yes, there is no definition of 'hardship' either so it could theoretically include people struggling with their $40k a month mortgage because their fleet of Hummers cost so much to run, but I think the jist is clear.

 

[ignatious]

You can't fix stupid

Nobody is stupid. Many are ill-informed.

 

[MickiQ]

Well, literally, he got more votes than Harris, certainly. But, without heading down the 'false consciousness' route, I don't think he offers solutions to what people need. Or, for that matter what people actually want, when they discuss their own lives and their family's, away from the shite of an election campaign. It's a response to what people feel about their lives, but a wholly negative reaction to people feeling overwhelmed or anxious. Racism and Xenophobia come out of those circumstances too, though they have obviously deeper roots in American history. I'm not going to pretend there are good or honest things going on amid this shitshow, there aren't. But I do contest the idea that voting for a thing can be read off as genuine agreement with those trying to lock onto fears and anxieties.

I'm sure a lot of people voted for Trump's dark side but I suspect a lot voted for Make America Great Again which is sufficiently vague enough to be open to people to putting their own spin on it. Before the election I watched a video about his 2016 campaign where the documentary visited the poorest county in the USA which has been decimated by the collapse of the coal industry and so many people said they were voting Trump because he was going to re-open the coalmines (he didn't obvs) but I think a lot of people wanted MAGA because they think it means the possibility of a decent job, being able to afford a home, not being bankrupted by medical bills etc.
Trump is a scam artist he promises the moon with neither the ability nor the interest to deliver it but people are desperate for it. So what if the economy has done better under Biden than it did under Trump, if you were on minimum wage and struggling to pay your rent in 2020 chances are you still were come 2024.
OK a lot of people voted for Trump because they really want to throw out the migrants and put the gays in extermination camps but a lot of people may have thought to themselves "OK voting Trump could bring cheaper gas and groceries, OK I don't agree with some of his more extreme views but it probably won't be as bad as the fearmongers say and anyway I'm not a migrant and I'm not gay so it won't affect me anyway"
The amazing thing is of course that people are prepared to fall for his schtick twice, 2016 may be understandable but the thing that gets me shaking my head is that so many people remember what his last term was like and still voted for him.

 

[Maltin]

There was an article on the BBC about Latinx voters going to Trump (not a majority of them, but a sizeable minority. Enough to make a difference). One comment was about being told you are better off under the Democrats but knowing that eggs were $5 a half dozen when four years ago they were 95c (or similar. I don’t have the article in front of me).

Whatever areas Sanders is wrong on - and I’m not a fan - his general point is correct. People feel much worse off - are worse off - and therefore didn’t believe the Democrat line that they were better off.

I read that many Latino/Latina voters were put off by being referred to by the made up word Latinx too.

 

[emanymton]

Well, yes, there is no definition of 'hardship' either so it could theoretically include people struggling with their $40k a month mortgage because their fleet of Hummers cost so much to run, but I think the jist is clear.

When this was posted the other day I said that self reporting was an issue. And the more I look at this graph and the message it is trying to give the less I like it.

It is trying to say that majority of people who voted Trump did so because of economic hardship, but that just doesn't add up. The result was pretty close to 50/50 and that would have been the same whatever the relative level of hardship. Sure if more people felt they were doing better it could have shifted things away from Trump enough that he lost. But that isn't an explanation for why he won as it ignores the vast majority of the vote.

All it really shows is that people who vote Trump are more likely to say they feel more hardship. Thing is I would bet money that many of those people will get worse off over the next 4 years, but still say they feel better off. As LBJ says you can't separate this from their politics.

 

[brogdale]

More Dem post-mortem 'analysis' that reveals exactly where the problem lies; imagine committing in print the aspiration to be "a party interested in competent technocracy."

 

[Yossarian]

I don't think there's any question that inflation, interest rate rises etc. have left a lot of people in hardship, which was always going to make the election an uphill climb for the incumbent party - but according to Ipsos, people who were misinformed about the economy, immigration, and crime were a lot likelier to vote for Trump

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/link-between-media-consumption-and-public-opinion

 

[ignatious]

More Dem post-mortem 'analysis' that reveals exactly where the problem lies; imagine committing in print the aspiration to be "a party interested in competent technocracy."

View attachment 450187

Isn't that just twat-speak for good governance (as in, being a govt of the people for the people as opposed to the self-enriching swamp that people are angry about)?

The rest of it seems quite accurate tbf.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's a tricky one for the Dems to defend. It wasn't just the US with a cost of living crisis, of course. And it wasn't the US that had the worst of it. This hit across the world post-pandemic, and many incumbents have been punished in elections as a result.

I think the case can be made that the US would be even worse off now if Trump had got back in in 2020 because there wouldn't have been anything like the 'Inflation reduction act', which was actually the opposite of that but was aimed at mitigating the effects of the crisis.

"Things may be fucked, but they'd have been even more fucked with the other lot" is a hard sell, but in this case it is probably true.

 

[ignatious]

It is trying to say that majority of people who voted Trump did so because of economic hardship

It's not. It doesn't compare 'hardship' with any other reason that people may have had for voting as they did. You have made that assumption yourself.

Thing is I would bet money that many of those people will get worse off over the next 4 years, but still say they feel better off. As LBJ says you can't separate this from their politics.

Good point.

 

[brogdale]

Isn't that just twat-speak for good governance (as in, being a govt of the people for the people as opposed to the self-enriching swamp that people are angry about)?

The rest of it seems quite accurate tbf.

No, technocracy means governance undertaken by technical experts rather than representatives legislating in the interests of the people.

This Dem doesn't even pretend.

 

[emanymton]

It's not. It doesn't compare 'hardship' with any other reason that people may have had for voting as they did. You have made that assumption yourself.

I feel they way it is presented is trying to give that impression. Could be that is is snipped from something bigger which would be different.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I feel they way it is presented is trying to give that impression. Could be that is is snipped from something bigger which would be different.

tbf it's a variant on 'it's the economy, stupid', and 'it's the economy, stupid' does still have a lot of truth to it.

But it involves self-reporting of a measure that isn't defined, so it only really gives an idea of how people feel.

Feel good, you vote for the incumbent. Feel bad, you vote for the challenger.

Again, reductive, but as a predictor of electoral success, it is pretty good. It may well be that the Dems would have been in trouble this year as the incumbent whoever had been the candidate and whatever that candidate had said. Last two years have been very very bad for incumbents across the world.

 

[ignatious]

I feel they way it is presented is trying to give that impression. Could be that is is snipped from something bigger which would be different.

Quite possibly they are. I approached it from a 'why the Dems lost' rather than 'why Trump won' perspective which may explain our slightly different takes.

 

[Wilf]

You can't fix stupid

You can keep saying that, but where does it leave us? Americans are stupid. Oh well, that's alright.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think a lot of people wanted MAGA because they think it means the possibility of a decent job, being able to afford a home, not being bankrupted by medical bills etc.

Very much in our lifetime this was the how things were in the US, just look at The Simpsons; One only very slightly skilled worker in the family, detached house filled with 'stuff', two cars, annual holiday, and so on. Sure it's a cartoon, but when it appeared in the late 80s that situation wasn't far-fetched, fucking well is now.

 

[Yossarian]

Very much in our lifetime this was the how things were in the US, just look at The Simpsons; One only very slightly skilled worker in the family, detached house filled with 'stuff', two cars, annual holiday, and so on. Sure it's a cartoon, but when it appeared in the late 80s that situation wasn't far-fetched, fucking well is now.

He had a good union, too

 

[danny la rouge]

I read that many Latino/Latina voters were put off by being referred to by the made up word Latinx too.

I read that respectful intentions were better than trying to be a smart arse.