Donald Trump - news and discussion

[Yuwipi Woman]

I think BRICS Nations want to undermine the US dollar as a reserve currency.

Yes, that's been the long-term game for years. Being the reserve currency has a lot of benefits.

 

[pogofish]

I don't think Trump would defend Taiwan anyway. He has a habit of selling out entire groups just to get a (bad) deal he can brag about.

He might be forced to whether he wants to or not.

Taiwan's technology sector is of very considerable importance to US and a lot of other countries allied to it. Taiwanese government sponsored design houses and manufacturing corporations, notably the huge semiconductor manufacturer TSMC, despite establishing overseas factories and second-sourcing to US/other producers, their island factories (20+ of them) are still responsible for a large majority of the most advanced semiconductors used in computer, automotive and military industries today.

Losing them to the Chinese would put the US/West back decades in the technology stakes.

 

[pogofish]

Not all coffee comes from Colombia, so a tariff against one country would favour producers in another more compliant country

Isn't Vietnam the US's single largest supplier of coffee these days? IIRC they had captured supply for all the US's most major brands by some years ago - 2010/2012?

 

[two sheds]

He could just impose tariffs on them if China does take control.

 

[hitmouse]

Posted some of Margaret Killjoy's thoughts on morale earlier, here's an extended version:

You Do Not Flee a Storm

or: morale as a terrain of struggle

substack.com

Most movies show medieval war all wrong. It’s rarely a series of one-on-one fights. We are stronger when we stand together than we are when we’re isolated, and the tactics and weaponry of warfare were developed with that in mind. It’s the same reason the average soldier does not carry a handgun—one-on-one combat simply isn’t a reasonable plan for most people in most situations. We fight in units. We defend one another. And we do not flee.

I learned this the hard way in my time as a frontline protestor. The cops come in, marching in unison, clacking their batons on their shields, throwing their weight around. They fire flashbangs and tear gas and baton rounds. They don’t do it to hurt us—though they sure don’t mind when they do. They do it to terrify us. They do it to cause a rout, which ends the protest and lets them pick people off unhindered.

Soon after I started going to protests, I learned the single most useful thing you can do for a crowd is keep them calm. It’s oddly easy. Just yell “walk!” or “don’t run!” (people like to argue about which is better. I’m not going to herein.) Yell this quickly enough, get enough people yelling it, and you’ve stopped a rout. The police will have failed at their purpose, which is to control us through fear...

My favorite bit of slang I’ve picked up recently is the phrase “we’re so cooked.” I like it because it’s true.

But that doesn’t mean we should break ranks and run. That’s when they mow us down.

---

I spent an awful lot of Sunday and Monday doomscrolling, even though I promised myself I wasn’t going to. I also spent a lot of it talking to friends. A friend in Canada who woke up from a nightmare about US invasion. Friends in red states unsure how they will get out. Friends in blue states realizing that local politics are likely to only slow down, not stop, the rise of fascism. Jewish friends watching the world’s richest man emphatically sieg heil to thunderous applause while every news organization in the country warns us that we shouldn’t believe the evidence of our own eyes.

Myself and an awful lot of my friends woke up Tuesday to the news that our identities are illegal. Trans prisoners are being forced to detransition and women are about to be moved into men’s prisons. The crackdown on migrants is already ramping up.

I know you know all of this. You don’t need me to tell you that it’s cold outside. You can see the snow.

Maybe your house, like mine, has central heating. Not everyone’s does. Not everyone has a house at all—in fact, fewer and fewer of us do. And honestly? My metaphor about the cold doesn’t really work here, because when we’re talking about literal cold, then sure I have a house and a furnace. But as for the rise of fascism in this country, I’m a publicly visible trans anarchist.

But to continue my convoluted metaphors, you do not flee from a storm, you take shelter, and you help others take shelter. You get people away from out in the open. You also fight back. Okay, not against storms. Again, this is the problem with metaphors. But fascism? That you fight back against.

---

Nothing that is happening really comes as any kind of shock. Not the sieg heiling, not the executive orders, not the world’s billionaires lining up to bend the knee to fascism, not the rise of the populist Right. We’ve known it was coming, the storm has been rumbling in the hills for years.

Maybe you’ve been preparing for it, by building community, getting to know your neighbors, connecting with mutual aid organizations, preparing for disaster, keeping your passports in order, or working with affinity groups and/or larger organization frameworks to confront fascists directly and indirectly where you live.

Maybe you haven’t done those things yet. That’s okay. There’s this cliche in preparedness circles: “the best time to get prepared was yesterday. The second-best time is today.”

A lot of people are going to be offering lists of solutions, of simple things you can do today. These lists are good. I’ve written some before, and I’ll likely write one again. Just now, though, I want to revel in the snow with my dog and I want to talk through plans with my loved ones. Maybe that’s the start of my list.

It’s okay to be worried. Fear is a natural response to dangerous stimuli. The trick is that we can’t let it control us. We ought to acknowledge the danger and take it into consideration when we make our plans, but fear itself usually tells us to do exactly what we ought not do. Fear tells us to run from the enemy. Fear tells us to panic and flee. Instead, we organize.

At some point, we might need to retreat. Retreat is a reasonable and important part of strategy and tactics. To break ranks and flee uncontrollably, though, is presumably never the answer.

Morale itself is a terrain of struggle. Our morale is under attack, because our lives are under attack. But they haven’t defeated us, and they won’t.

So play with your dog, and talk to your friends, and make plans. And whatever you do, don’t let fear defeat you.

 

[pogofish]

He could just impose tariffs on them if China does take control.

One of the reasons cited for the tolerably civil relationship between China and Taiwan these last couple of decades is that Taiwanese Tech firms, again notably TSMC have been somewhat important in helping China develop/establish its own semiconductor industry - and yes, they also have at least two factories on the Chinese mainland!

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

He might be forced to whether he wants to or not.

Taiwan's technology sector is of very considerable importance to US and a lot of other countries allied to it. Taiwanese government sponsored design houses and manufacturing corporations, notably the huge semiconductor manufacturer TSMC, despite establishing overseas factories and second-sourcing to US/other producers, their island factories (20+ of them) are still responsible for a large majority of the most advanced semiconductors used in computer, automotive and military industries today.

Losing them to the Chinese would put the US/West back decades in the technology stakes.

As I understand it, the CEO of TSMC has said they'd destroy the facilities in Taiwan rather than let it fall in the hands of the Chinese government. And if the Taiwanese wouldn't do it, the US would.

US would destroy Taiwan's semiconductor factories rather than letting them fall into China's hands, a former national security advisor says

Robert O'Brien told Semafor that China would be "like the new OPEC of silicon chips" if it invaded Taiwan and took over semiconductor factories.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[pogofish]

As I understand it, the CEO of TSMC has said they'd destroy the facilities in Taiwan rather than let it fall in the hands of the Chinese government. And if the Taiwanese wouldn't do it, the US would.

US would destroy Taiwan's semiconductor factories rather than letting them fall into China's hands, a former national security advisor says

Robert O'Brien told Semafor that China would be "like the new OPEC of silicon chips" if it invaded Taiwan and took over semiconductor factories.

www.businessinsider.com

Which would still put the US/West at a huge disadvantage - IIRC none of TSMC's overseas factories have yet managed to reach the same level of output/quality compared to their home factories. Indeed some, notably in the US and Germany have been beset by legal issues, resulting in the mothballing of one of its US plants, plus major quality deficiencies at another and complete failure in Leipzig, although I think Germany is giving them another go in Dresden just now? Then there is the skills/experience base they have built-up on the island. Would Trump grant visas in the sort of numbers needed to bring them over to the US - and if he did, how would his voters see that one!

 

[teuchter]

He should perhaps have this map upon his wall, for occasional reference.

 

[Aladdin]

While I agree that it's probably wrong to call Trump 'thick', I do suspect that he has a foundational belief that the US is such a powerful country that it can basically do what it wants and nobody will stand up to it. That belief is going to be sorely tested

If he invades Greenland do you see the EU going to war to defend it?.

I just can't see that happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my behalf.
But if it does happen...it will leave the EU extremely vulnerable attempting to control wars on basically two fronts. Ukraine and Greenland.
Russia or others might take advantage.
I can't believe I am even thinking that Europe could go to war with the US.

 

[two sheds]

I was idly wondering whether we need permission to nuke the US seeing as how we've got US missiles (I thought). I'm also assuming though that we'd have an older generation that would easily be shot down.

 

[Coffeecup]

If he invades Greenland do you see the EU going to war to defend it?.

I just can't see that happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my behalf.
But if it does happen...it will leave the EU extremely vulnerable attempting to control wars on basically two fronts. Ukraine and Greenland.
Russia or others might take advantage.
I can't believe I am even thinking that Europe could go to war with the US.

I don’t think he will invade Greenland. He’s all threats and bluster and tactically wants people to roll over. He’ll probably get his way for now but I doubt it will last. I don’t see any wars as people wait for him to keel over bankrupt. The problem is, the American economy which he doesn’t give a shit about affects us all.

Trade wars were partly responsible for the American depression 1929. Even the so called rich threw themselves off buildings.

 

[editor]

I think this point that is made over and over that he doesn't understand, the consumer pays etc is a bit overblown. Yes tariffs will raise prices and may damage the US economy. But they do also reduce competition for domestic producers (where they exist) and those allies who don't have the tariffs - and they do harm the country involved by reducing their exports. Access to the US market is very important for lots of countries. So it is a genuine weapon and bargaining chip, albeit a potentially dangerous one for the US economy.

People will soon start getting pissed of when their cheap Chinese made electrical goods suddenly start going up in price. Which they absolutely will if tariffs are introduced.

 

[two sheds]

Although I'm sure all the right-wing media in the US will be either saying they've not gone up at all and they were much higher under Biden, or that it's the commies that are responsible.

 

[maomao]

I was idly wondering whether we need permission to nuke the US seeing as how we've got US missiles (I thought). I'm also assuming though that we'd have an older generation that would easily be shot down.

The American missiles on UK soil (that weren't here for a while but came back because of Ukraine) are not controlled by the UK. We are just Airstrip 1 for Oceania. The Tridents are American missiles with British manufactured warheads as I understand so we'd have to use them. They have three times as many of them (with US built warheads) as we do and we're a smaller target so don't think that would go well.

 

[breadandcircuse]

Watching the Auschwitz/Birkenhau commemoration today, (the liberation of those death camps), it is even more disturbing that we now have fascists in the White House. How can people elect scum like the thing, when we have evidence of what his kind leads to. Are the voters in the US seriously so ignorant of history that they would put the monster back in power? It's terrifying and heartbreaking.

 

[two sheds]

The American missiles on UK soil (that weren't here for a while but came back because of Ukraine) are not controlled by the UK. We are just Landing Strip 1 for Oceania. The Tridents are American missiles with British manufactured warheads as I understand so we'd have to use them. They have three times as many of them (with US built warheads) as we do and we're a smaller target so don't think that would go well.

We could threaten to take out TrumpTowers and Mar-a-ago though, that would give him pause for thought.

 

[andysays]

If he invades Greenland do you see the EU going to war to defend it?.

I just can't see that happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my behalf.
But if it does happen...it will leave the EU extremely vulnerable attempting to control wars on basically two fronts. Ukraine and Greenland.
Russia or others might take advantage.
I can't believe I am even thinking that Europe could go to war with the US.

The EU as the EU doesn't have any military capability, does it?

But it would certainly leave individual EU and NATO member countries in a bit of a quandary.

 

[two sheds]

Any response (presumably financial) would send Trump into Putin's arms who'd I'm sure would happily butter him up, they're much closer to each other than to Europe. That wouldn't end well either .

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Is this for real?
View attachment 461491

Bunch of fucking gangstas, the lot of them. They're nothing but an organised crime family that got lucky.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Is this for real?
View attachment 461491

Maybe someone pointed out the German parallels, what with the Weimar Republic going through a 'Golden Age' before Germany's economy was affected by the fall-out of the 1929 US Stock Market crash and the Great Depression, which led to the surge in popularity of the Nazis...?

And maybe if you're trying to avoid all the concerns about 'history repeating itself' then drawing attention to similarities between the US being slowly taken over by far-right Nazis now and what happened in Germany a century ago might not be the best of ideas.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I think this is more rhetoric for the plebs than his actual view. Don't forget whatever else he is, he's also been in international business for decades. Someone will have explained tariffs to him at some point, and it's not terribly complicated stuff.

Although medical advisers did have to explain to the stable genius during the pandemic that injecting yourself with bleach might not be a good idea... so his capacity for comprehension is questionable

He has a history of ignoring opinions that don't tally with his own. He's like a five-year-old covering his ears and singing 'Lalala' anytime someone says something he doesn't want to hear.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Would still fuck over American coffee drinkers if those countries decide to raise prices anyway. That's assuming that those countries don't do anything to cause Trump to throw another tariff-related temper tantrum, which does not seem like a safe assumption.

iirc, many commodities are traded on the Chicago exchange, the price of wheat, soy and whatnot, also coffee.

It would be interesting to see who profited from any price fluctuations amid Trump's sabre rattling.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

As Yuwipi Woman points out, everyone is going to take the opportunity to put their prices up. Cos they can.

Cos capitalism. Big business wins. The consumer loses. The people lose.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I think BRICS Nations want to undermine the US dollar as a reserve currency.

They'd need to tread very carefully if they were doing that.

Didn't Iran try to pull out of using the US dollar as the denomination for international trade at one point? The US didn't respond well to that.

 

[spring-peeper]

They'd need to tread very carefully if they were doing that.

"50% tariff on the world"

 

[lazythursday]

I think this is far more complicated than people here are suggesting (and perhaps shows just how deeply the idea of globalised free trade being a Good Thing has took hold on us). I don't have confidence that Trump putting big tariffs on certain countries will blow up in his face. Firstly, because while he'll threaten it willy nilly I doubt he'll do it indiscriminately. And doubtless it will benefit some sectors of the US economy while hurting others. And ultimately he will blame everyone but himself and he has a good track record of pulling that off.

 

[Aladdin]

I was idly wondering whether we need permission to nuke the US seeing as how we've got US missiles (I thought). I'm also assuming though that we'd have an older generation that would easily be shot down.

I've been wondering about the US nukes that are situated in US bases in Europe... Turkey, Belgium, Italy...and probably more I can't remember.
What would happen if the Orange Turd decided to deploy those against European countries..for example... pointing them at Denmark just to force a handover of Greenland? Would the EU fight the US? Could they? Would the UK side with the EU?
I don't see any end to his attempts at absolute tyranny. He's so crazy he would go along with Putin and let him have Ukraine as long as he can divvy up the EU.

 

[Rob Ray]

Although medical advisers did have to explain to the stable genius during the pandemic that injecting yourself with bleach might not be a good idea... so his capacity for comprehension is questionable

He has a history of ignoring opinions that don't tally with his own. He's like a five-year-old covering his ears and singing 'Lalala' anytime someone says something he doesn't want to hear.

And yet he keeps winning. At some point when the spectacle and the facts don't match up it becomes necessary to weigh the latter more heavily. People say all sorts of weird things, especially when, like Trump, their interest in speaking the truth is minimal and their interest in attracting/manipulating others all-encompassing. What they do is what actually matters.

 

[lazythursday]

I've been wondering about the US nukes that are situated in US bases in Europe... Turkey, Belgium, Italy...and probably more I can't remember.
What would happen if the Orange Turd decided to deploy those against European countries..for example... pointing them at Denmark just to force a handover of Greenland? Would the EU fight the US? Could they? Would the UK side with the EU?
I don't see any end to his attempts at absolute tyranny. He's so crazy he would go along with Putin and let him have Ukraine as long as he can divvy up the EU.

The EU is not going to fight the US. It doesn't have an army. None of the individual countries have the capability. Donald is going to get what he wants, in the short term.

Longer term trashing your allies will undermine the whole shaky edifice that is the US imperium but I just don't really see Europe doing much other than capitulating on Trump's big issues while quietly trying to act more independently and build new alliances.