Donald Trump - MAGAtwat news and discussion

[Coffeecup]

This is potentially true. It might also push up production costs in other countries to the point where they have to raise prices. It might also inspire them to avoid the US market entirely and sell to BRIC countries, developing trade with other markets. This is already happening with the soy market.

What they should do is band together and resist. If they don't that'll give Trump the power to jerk anyone's chain at any time and get results.

Either way, its going to be a long miserable haul for everyone, include the US consumer.

I think BRICS Nations want to undermine the US dollar as a reserve currency.

 

[CH1]

BRICS countries

you forgot Spain

I would have thought that Trump 2.0 might encourage Colombia and Panama to JOIN the BRICS and the Belt and Road.
This guy from an American "marxist" group thinks so. (not very sound on Ukraine by the way)

 

[littlebabyjesus]

While I agree that it's probably wrong to call Trump 'thick', I do suspect that he has a foundational belief that the US is such a powerful country that it can basically do what it wants and nobody will stand up to it. That belief is going to be sorely tested.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

BRICS countries

you forgot Spain

My apologies.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I think BRICS Nations want to undermine the US dollar as a reserve currency.

Yes, that's been the long-term game for years. Being the reserve currency has a lot of benefits.

 

[pogofish]

I don't think Trump would defend Taiwan anyway. He has a habit of selling out entire groups just to get a (bad) deal he can brag about.

He might be forced to whether he wants to or not.

Taiwan's technology sector is of very considerable importance to US and a lot of other countries allied to it. Taiwanese government sponsored design houses and manufacturing corporations, notably the huge semiconductor manufacturer TSMC, despite establishing overseas factories and second-sourcing to US/other producers, their island factories (20+ of them) are still responsible for a large majority of the most advanced semiconductors used in computer, automotive and military industries today.

Losing them to the Chinese would put the US/West back decades in the technology stakes.

 

[pogofish]

Not all coffee comes from Colombia, so a tariff against one country would favour producers in another more compliant country

Isn't Vietnam the US's single largest supplier of coffee these days? IIRC they had captured supply for all the US's most major brands by some years ago - 2010/2012?

 

[two sheds]

He could just impose tariffs on them if China does take control.

 

[pogofish]

He could just impose tariffs on them if China does take control.

One of the reasons cited for the tolerably civil relationship between China and Taiwan these last couple of decades is that Taiwanese Tech firms, again notably TSMC have been somewhat important in helping China develop/establish its own semiconductor industry - and yes, they also have at least two factories on the Chinese mainland!

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

He might be forced to whether he wants to or not.

Taiwan's technology sector is of very considerable importance to US and a lot of other countries allied to it. Taiwanese government sponsored design houses and manufacturing corporations, notably the huge semiconductor manufacturer TSMC, despite establishing overseas factories and second-sourcing to US/other producers, their island factories (20+ of them) are still responsible for a large majority of the most advanced semiconductors used in computer, automotive and military industries today.

Losing them to the Chinese would put the US/West back decades in the technology stakes.

As I understand it, the CEO of TSMC has said they'd destroy the facilities in Taiwan rather than let it fall in the hands of the Chinese government. And if the Taiwanese wouldn't do it, the US would.

US would destroy Taiwan's semiconductor factories rather than letting them fall into China's hands, a former national security advisor says

Robert O'Brien told Semafor that China would be "like the new OPEC of silicon chips" if it invaded Taiwan and took over semiconductor factories.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[pogofish]

As I understand it, the CEO of TSMC has said they'd destroy the facilities in Taiwan rather than let it fall in the hands of the Chinese government. And if the Taiwanese wouldn't do it, the US would.

US would destroy Taiwan's semiconductor factories rather than letting them fall into China's hands, a former national security advisor says

Robert O'Brien told Semafor that China would be "like the new OPEC of silicon chips" if it invaded Taiwan and took over semiconductor factories.

www.businessinsider.com

Which would still put the US/West at a huge disadvantage - IIRC none of TSMC's overseas factories have yet managed to reach the same level of output/quality compared to their home factories. Indeed some, notably in the US and Germany have been beset by legal issues, resulting in the mothballing of one of its US plants, plus major quality deficiencies at another and complete failure in Leipzig, although I think Germany is giving them another go in Dresden just now? Then there is the skills/experience base they have built-up on the island. Would Trump grant visas in the sort of numbers needed to bring them over to the US - and if he did, how would his voters see that one!

 

[teuchter]

He should perhaps have this map upon his wall, for occasional reference.

 

[Aladdin]

While I agree that it's probably wrong to call Trump 'thick', I do suspect that he has a foundational belief that the US is such a powerful country that it can basically do what it wants and nobody will stand up to it. That belief is going to be sorely tested

If he invades Greenland do you see the EU going to war to defend it?.

I just can't see that happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my behalf.
But if it does happen...it will leave the EU extremely vulnerable attempting to control wars on basically two fronts. Ukraine and Greenland.
Russia or others might take advantage.
I can't believe I am even thinking that Europe could go to war with the US.

 

[two sheds]

I was idly wondering whether we need permission to nuke the US seeing as how we've got US missiles (I thought). I'm also assuming though that we'd have an older generation that would easily be shot down.

 

[Coffeecup]

If he invades Greenland do you see the EU going to war to defend it?.

I just can't see that happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my behalf.
But if it does happen...it will leave the EU extremely vulnerable attempting to control wars on basically two fronts. Ukraine and Greenland.
Russia or others might take advantage.
I can't believe I am even thinking that Europe could go to war with the US.

I don’t think he will invade Greenland. He’s all threats and bluster and tactically wants people to roll over. He’ll probably get his way for now but I doubt it will last. I don’t see any wars as people wait for him to keel over bankrupt. The problem is, the American economy which he doesn’t give a shit about affects us all.

Trade wars were partly responsible for the American depression 1929. Even the so called rich threw themselves off buildings.

 

[editor]

I think this point that is made over and over that he doesn't understand, the consumer pays etc is a bit overblown. Yes tariffs will raise prices and may damage the US economy. But they do also reduce competition for domestic producers (where they exist) and those allies who don't have the tariffs - and they do harm the country involved by reducing their exports. Access to the US market is very important for lots of countries. So it is a genuine weapon and bargaining chip, albeit a potentially dangerous one for the US economy.

People will soon start getting pissed of when their cheap Chinese made electrical goods suddenly start going up in price. Which they absolutely will if tariffs are introduced.

 

[two sheds]

Although I'm sure all the right-wing media in the US will be either saying they've not gone up at all and they were much higher under Biden, or that it's the commies that are responsible.

 

[maomao]

I was idly wondering whether we need permission to nuke the US seeing as how we've got US missiles (I thought). I'm also assuming though that we'd have an older generation that would easily be shot down.

The American missiles on UK soil (that weren't here for a while but came back because of Ukraine) are not controlled by the UK. We are just Airstrip 1 for Oceania. The Tridents are American missiles with British manufactured warheads as I understand so we'd have to use them. They have three times as many of them (with US built warheads) as we do and we're a smaller target so don't think that would go well.

 

[breadandcircuse]

Watching the Auschwitz/Birkenhau commemoration today, (the liberation of those death camps), it is even more disturbing that we now have fascists in the White House. How can people elect scum like the thing, when we have evidence of what his kind leads to. Are the voters in the US seriously so ignorant of history that they would put the monster back in power? It's terrifying and heartbreaking.

 

[two sheds]

The American missiles on UK soil (that weren't here for a while but came back because of Ukraine) are not controlled by the UK. We are just Landing Strip 1 for Oceania. The Tridents are American missiles with British manufactured warheads as I understand so we'd have to use them. They have three times as many of them (with US built warheads) as we do and we're a smaller target so don't think that would go well.

We could threaten to take out TrumpTowers and Mar-a-ago though, that would give him pause for thought.

 

[andysays]

If he invades Greenland do you see the EU going to war to defend it?.

I just can't see that happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my behalf.
But if it does happen...it will leave the EU extremely vulnerable attempting to control wars on basically two fronts. Ukraine and Greenland.
Russia or others might take advantage.
I can't believe I am even thinking that Europe could go to war with the US.

The EU as the EU doesn't have any military capability, does it?

But it would certainly leave individual EU and NATO member countries in a bit of a quandary.

 

[two sheds]

Any response (presumably financial) would send Trump into Putin's arms who'd I'm sure would happily butter him up, they're much closer to each other than to Europe. That wouldn't end well either .

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Is this for real?
View attachment 461491

Bunch of fucking gangstas, the lot of them. They're nothing but an organised crime family that got lucky.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Is this for real?
View attachment 461491

Maybe someone pointed out the German parallels, what with the Weimar Republic going through a 'Golden Age' before Germany's economy was affected by the fall-out of the 1929 US Stock Market crash and the Great Depression, which led to the surge in popularity of the Nazis...?

And maybe if you're trying to avoid all the concerns about 'history repeating itself' then drawing attention to similarities between the US being slowly taken over by far-right Nazis now and what happened in Germany a century ago might not be the best of ideas.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I think this is more rhetoric for the plebs than his actual view. Don't forget whatever else he is, he's also been in international business for decades. Someone will have explained tariffs to him at some point, and it's not terribly complicated stuff.

Although medical advisers did have to explain to the stable genius during the pandemic that injecting yourself with bleach might not be a good idea... so his capacity for comprehension is questionable

He has a history of ignoring opinions that don't tally with his own. He's like a five-year-old covering his ears and singing 'Lalala' anytime someone says something he doesn't want to hear.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Would still fuck over American coffee drinkers if those countries decide to raise prices anyway. That's assuming that those countries don't do anything to cause Trump to throw another tariff-related temper tantrum, which does not seem like a safe assumption.

iirc, many commodities are traded on the Chicago exchange, the price of wheat, soy and whatnot, also coffee.

It would be interesting to see who profited from any price fluctuations amid Trump's sabre rattling.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

As Yuwipi Woman points out, everyone is going to take the opportunity to put their prices up. Cos they can.

Cos capitalism. Big business wins. The consumer loses. The people lose.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I think BRICS Nations want to undermine the US dollar as a reserve currency.

They'd need to tread very carefully if they were doing that.

Didn't Iran try to pull out of using the US dollar as the denomination for international trade at one point? The US didn't respond well to that.

 

[spring-peeper]

They'd need to tread very carefully if they were doing that.

"50% tariff on the world"

 

[lazythursday]

I think this is far more complicated than people here are suggesting (and perhaps shows just how deeply the idea of globalised free trade being a Good Thing has took hold on us). I don't have confidence that Trump putting big tariffs on certain countries will blow up in his face. Firstly, because while he'll threaten it willy nilly I doubt he'll do it indiscriminately. And doubtless it will benefit some sectors of the US economy while hurting others. And ultimately he will blame everyone but himself and he has a good track record of pulling that off.