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I've been watching content from the US for some time. It's utterly depressing. Florida seems to be hell bent on self destruction under that piece of shit De Santis. He is committing fucking murder IM not-ligitious O. Seriously, he's happy for his donors to be inoculated, but kids in schools? Let them die. It's just depressing. Anecdotes such as those in the clip are rife; one woman, in ICU talking with a reporter via walkie talkie, had Covid induced pneumonia. Was she going to get the vaccine now? Even as she said no, her expression betrayed her insecurity. All the reporter could do was just stand there, stunned. This isn't freedom, it's social murder.
 
tbf to us of course, we're a much different beast to NZ. you don't 'pass through' NZ. you have to want to go there. we're a major international hub so i don't think their strategy would work here. /devilsadvocate
 
Some interesting data about Moderna here, producing twice as many antibodies as Pfizer, apparently.


As a Moderna receiver myself, I sure hope it was all worth it because I felt rough as heck both times. Although it did quickly pass.
 
tbf to us of course, we're a much different beast to NZ. you don't 'pass through' NZ. you have to want to go there. we're a major international hub so i don't think their strategy would work here. /devilsadvocate

We could argue about the details of that for a long time, so for a start I would split it into at least two different things.

1) The actual realities of what approaches were plausible here in the UK.

2) Establishment assumptions, attitudes and impressions about this.

The former is where we could argue, with little supporting evidence since no sincere attempts were made to do that. Probably the closest we could get to a real world test would have been via how low a rate of infection was achieved by early summer 2020. Because given all the early errors at the start of the pandemic, and errors made later, that offers the best opportunity to consider just how close to a viable 'total suppression' strategy we could have managed if the will had been there at that time. Scottish authorities certainly recognised the merits of suppression enough that they included disingenuous lip-service to the principal back then. They pretended they were going for that, but they didnt actually do the thing necessary to hope to achieve it.

In terms of establishment attitudes I dont have much doubt that the whole 'global hub, trading nation' thing set the scene and limited establishment pandemic ambitions. Some days ago I dug out a SAGE behavioural group document that gives further glimpses into that establishment view, for example:

For geographical, political and historical reasons, remote island nations such as Australia and authoritarian regimes with large land frontiers tend to favour strict arrangements, whereas nations like the UK, which depend heavily on trade and movement, tend to favour more liberal ones.

There are a bunch of other relevant quotes in the same document, including the authorities own perceptions about the nature of policing in different countries, but rather than quote these again now I will just link to my longer post about it. Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
 
We could argue about the details of that for a long time, so for a start I would split it into at least two different things.

1) The actual realities of what approaches were plausible here in the UK.

2) Establishment assumptions, attitudes and impressions about this.

The former is where we could argue, with little supporting evidence since no sincere attempts were made to do that. Probably the closest we could get to a real world test would have been via how low a rate of infection was achieved by early summer 2020. Because given all the early errors at the start of the pandemic, and errors made later, that offers the best opportunity to consider just how close to a viable 'total suppression' strategy we could have managed if the will had been there at that time. Scottish authorities certainly recognised the merits of suppression enough that they included disingenuous lip-service to the principal back then. They pretended they were going for that, but they didnt actually do the thing necessary to hope to achieve it.

In terms of establishment attitudes I dont have much doubt that the whole 'global hub, trading nation' thing set the scene and limited establishment pandemic ambitions. Some days ago I dug out a SAGE behavioural group document that gives further glimpses into that establishment view, for example:



There are a bunch of other relevant quotes in the same document, including the authorities own perceptions about the nature of policing in different countries, but rather than quote these again now I will just link to my longer post about it. Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Your post in the UK thread looks really very good. Gonna have a proper read after lunch.

I personally don't think a 'total suppression' strategy would have worked here but at least some semblance of it might have reduced many thousands of deaths. People are wandering around now like everything is completely normal. Everything is not completely normal.
 
Cheers. It would be rather interesting to see how many times the UK approach would need to fail and blow up in their face before sincere attempts to try a different approach were attempted.

But of course I dont actually want us to end up in circumstances where we ultimately discover the answer to that question. And I doubt we will, although I dont completely rule it out due to unknowns about future variants and immunity.
 
Some interesting data about Moderna here, producing twice as many antibodies as Pfizer, apparently.


As a Moderna receiver myself, I sure hope it was all worth it because I felt rough as heck both times. Although it did quickly pass.
Wouldn't be entirely surprising since mRNA-1273 contains over three times as much mRNA per dose than BNT162b2 does. However, immune response post-vaccination is quite heterogeneous anyway (see spreads in kernel densities below) and the study notably reports similar responses with either vaccine in the previously infected (B).
Violin plots of circulating SARS-CoV-2 anti–spike protein receptor-binding domain antibodies in serum samples obtained from participants after they received 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine. Inside each violin plot, the geometric mean is depicted as a point. A, Difference between participants vaccinated with mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vs those with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). B, Difference according to previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and the type of mRNA vaccine. C, Difference according to age and the type of mRNA vaccine in previously uninfected participants.
Also note dosing interval in Belgium for BNT162b2 slightly shorter so post-vaccination sampling at N weeks post-second-dose would advantage mRNA-1273 slightly.
DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.15125.
(The relevant preprint needs some attention - contains an obvious mistake).
 
Well, I think everyone is watching what's going on in NZ with interest. I see Singapore is reporting a huge rise in cases again, which used to be another gold standard of how to deal with this. NZ is in a unique position, it really, and literally is.
 
Well propagandists have an undisguised urge to see the NZ approach fail so 'we' can feel better about our deadly approach.

We dont hear so much these days about claims the world is watching the UKs 'bold' summer 2021 approach to see if it offers hope that other nations can proceed to get shit on their knees whilst capitulating to the invisible mugger in future too. But I'm sure we'll hear much more about this again should a stage arrive where it looks like the UK has actually gotten away with that approach.
 
Well propagandists have an undisguised urge to see the NZ approach fail so 'we' can feel better about our deadly approach.

We dont hear so much these days about claims the world is watching the UKs 'bold' summer 2021 approach to see if it offers hope that other nations can proceed to get shit on their knees whilst capitulating to the invisible mugger in future too. But I'm sure we'll hear much more about this again should a stage arrive where it looks like the UK has actually gotten away with that approach.

Yeh, I can see that. A friend of mine said she was feeling a bit of schadenfreude when the NZ outbreak happened. Which is an odd reaction, based on jealousy I guess. I still can't see how they can keep it up though. You know much more than me about this but surely at some point they're going to need to just accept they're going to have to open their borders and adopt herd immunity (which is pretty much what we're doing)?
 
Herd immunity as we were sold it is currently dead, since vaccines arent preventing enough Delta infections to fully enable that scenario, especially when combined with the unvaccinated in the population. Plus the R for a particular variant affects what percentage of the population having immunity would be necessary to theoretically see a herd immunity effect. I've forgotten the exact numbers but we might have started the pandemic with a version pf the virus that suggested we'd need 70-75% population immunity, and these days its more like 90%+

So I wouldnt use that term at the moment, but yes NZ do plan to change approach at some stage. But not in winter with their current levels of vaccination.

In recent months the indications have been that they will start to do some limited pilot trials of letting in travellers much later in 2021, with a view to actually starting to unlock properly from quarter 1 2022 onwards.

eg Fortress New Zealand eyes opening to vaccinated travellers early 2022
 
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From that article - Ardern is only 41. I feel very very old. I hope they hold their nerve but 2022 is a very long way away. At some point there's got to be a bit of a rebellion.

They're only going to be letting people in from 'safe countries' anyway so that's us ruled out :D
 
From that article - Ardern is only 41. I feel very very old. I hope they hold their nerve but 2022 is a very long way away. At some point there's got to be a bit of a rebellion.

They're only going to be letting people in from 'safe countries' anyway so that's us ruled out :D

A rebellion is far from inevitable. Support was still strong back in July, although it would be foolish to make strong predictions. Risks include non-Covid politics, slow vaccine rollout, and any big failures managing the current situation.
 
What about those of us with a monk-like existence who may not get this "natural booster" before the vaccine has worn off ?

If I get exposed I want it to be a small viral load so via a mask.
 
Well, I think everyone is watching what's going on in NZ with interest. I see Singapore is reporting a huge rise in cases again, which used to be another gold standard of how to deal with this. NZ is in a unique position, it really, and literally is.

Hong Kong is going for zero COVID with somewhat more success than Singapore - mainland China as well, not that I would trust any official figures from Beijing.

Taiwan's success in containing an outbreak earlier this year might give NZ some hope:

taiwancovid.png
 
What about those of us with a monk-like existence who may not get this "natural booster" before the vaccine has worn off ?

If I get exposed I want it to be a small viral load so via a mask.
How is your own physical health?

Do you use vit D and zinc suppliments?

I know you are a very healthy eater and are you doing your bike riding? Are people allowed out more now in the uk?
What normally happens when you get flu? Take thing easy, keep up fluid intake, try to exercise daily. Best of luck.
 
I just want to point out that NZ is not unique. I am in WA, where we also have a zero Covid policy (at the minute), supported by a closed border, and the fact that we are pretty bloody remote. The only Covid we have is coming by plane boat or truck driver, and is in hospital or quarantine. We have a normal life, everything is open and we don't need to wear masks. If any Covid escapes into the community (usually quarantine breaches), we have been having short sharp lockdowns. Anyway, now there is a push from that twat Scomo to open everything up, I suspect our glorious isolation won't last after they reach the 80% vaccinated target. I am double jabbed, so hopefully will be fine, as quite frankly our hospitals just aren't up to coping with a Covid surge. And obviously as no-one has had Covid, there is no natural immunity. So it could get interesting! My local train station car park has just been set up as a drive in testing clinic, so looks like changes are coming!
 
How is your own physical health?

Do you use vit D and zinc suppliments?

I know you are a very healthy eater and are you doing your bike riding? Are people allowed out more now in the uk?
What normally happens when you get flu? Take thing easy, keep up fluid intake, try to exercise daily. Best of luck.

I took vitamin D during the winter and get out in the UV every day.
My weight is approaching ideal and I OD on vitamins and minerals...
I don't get in enough miles on the bike since retiring from the petri dish - need to work on that - plus strength exercises.
My one real co-morbidity is age...

My immune system tends towards over-enthusiasm and properly jumped on the AstraZeneca, but I haven't had significant bronchitis or even snottiness in decades...
 
I took vitamin D during the winter and get out in the UV every day.
My weight is approaching ideal and I OD on vitamins and minerals...
I don't get in enough miles on the bike since retiring from the petri dish - need to work on that - plus strength exercises.
My one real co-morbidity is age...

My immune system tends towards over-enthusiasm and properly jumped on the AstraZeneca, but I haven't had significant bronchitis or even snottiness in decades...
Sounds like you are a lot fitter and healthier than many other people. If you can get an oxygen meter/monitor, check your levels, think the normal is 96%_ 98%.
Mask up, use 70% alcohol rub on your hands, but I guess you know and have been doing this.
Try breathing exercises maybe, goggle them, it helps lungs and to relax/maintain calmness. Good luck, I am sure you will fine.
 
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