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[20Bees]

My son is a teacher in northern China and was due back at work today after a month on paternity leave. The school has just closed on government orders as one positive case of the delta variant has been identified in the city, there’s no general lockdown yet but it may well happen. The person apparently flew in from another city and had socialised at various bars and restaurants before being tested. Contact tracing is underway, people are advised not to leave the city.

 

[20Bees]

Sorry double post

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

My son is a teacher in northern China and was due back at work today after a month on paternity leave. The school has just closed on government orders as one positive case of the delta variant has been identified in the city, there’s no general lockdown yet but it may well happen. The person apparently flew in from another city and had socialised at various bars and restaurants before being tested. Contact tracing is underway, people are advised not to leave the city.

on the beeb web front page now china concern over delta spread

 

[MrCurry]

I wonder if countries which have been most successful in avoiding Covid spread to date (China, Aus, NZ, etc) are more vulnerable to Delta as the level of immunity within their communities is lower than in western countries where a higher proportion of people have had covid and retained good immunity to it? Or do the vaccines offer just as much protection to people as having successfully recovered from covid provides?

 

[IC3D]

Give it 12 months MrCurry for an answer.
I wonder if we will see New Zealand permanently seal itself from the world in the near future.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Vietnam which had done really well has several lockdowns now and the situation is grim, similar scenes to India last year where people try to return home as they cannot earn money in Saigon and their home towns/villages don't want to have them for fear of the virus.

 

[elbows]

I wonder if countries which have been most successful in avoiding Covid spread to date (China, Aus, NZ, etc) are more vulnerable to Delta as the level of immunity within their communities is lower than in western countries where a higher proportion of people have had covid and retained good immunity to it? Or do the vaccines offer just as much protection to people as having successfully recovered from covid provides?

That sort of thing, plus vaccine uptake rates and types of vaccine used, certainly make a difference to how big a wave they could have if things went unchecked.

But mostly I would focus on the fact that everywhere seems vulnerable to Delta. And places that always took an approach which minimises the number of infections are finding it harder to get their usual grip on this version of the virus, due to its increased transmissive abilities. So we start to see articles in the press questioning whether the approach of Australia for example is going to be viable this time. Not that I think they have much choice at this point, they have to try to keep the number of infections down.

And of course we can also look at how much trouble Delta has caused in places like the UK with its partial let it rip approach. Plenty of vaccinated and previous infected people here, yet under the conditions the government allowed the number of Delta cases still grew stupidly large.

What counts as success and failure varies considerably by nation too. The UK has had days in this pandemic where more people died in a single day than have died in total so far in Australia. The UK has had days where more positive cases were reported in a single day than Australia has recorded in the entire pandemic so far. And it is possible to find all manner of towns and cities in England where the number of positives on a single day in this Delta wave were greater than the current national daily figures for Australia.

And that stuff has an impact on perceptions. People in the UK have seen peak hospitalisationa nd death figures that are large, which impacts on what people think of the recent hospital and death figures, which may be perceived as modest compare to previous waves here, but would be considered a nightmare in countries that avoided such wave sizes all the way up to this current moment.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Uh-oh.

Wuhan: Chinese city to test entire population after virus resurfaces

The city of 11 million people is known to be the site where the coronavirus first emerged in 2019.

www.bbc.com

 

[elbows]

I wonder if countries which have been most successful in avoiding Covid spread to date (China, Aus, NZ, etc) are more vulnerable to Delta as the level of immunity within their communities is lower than in western countries where a higher proportion of people have had covid and retained good immunity to it? Or do the vaccines offer just as much protection to people as having successfully recovered from covid provides?

Following on from my previous reply, note how fucked Florida is despite being in a vaccine era and not having a shortage of infections in the past.

Florida again breaks record for COVID-19 hospitalizations

The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida rose to an all-time high of 11,515 patients in one day, according to data the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services released Tuesday.

www.pbs.org

The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida rose to an all-time high of 11,515 patients

The new number breaks a previous record for current hospitalizations set more than a year ago before vaccines were available. Last year, Florida hit its previous peak on July 23, with 10,170 hospitalizations.

By the way watch out for some of the wording in that article, with phrases like "in one day" being an odd choice given this is number of people in hospital, not daily admissions.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

So, Texas and Florida accounted for a 1/3rd of all US cases recently and both have governor opposed to mask mandates
great stuff :/

 

[Yossarian]

COVID seems to be exploding in Vietnam, which had been a success story for so long - record highs of 16,954 cases and 765 deaths reported Tuesday, that's a tenth of the cases and more than a third of the deaths reported during the entire pandemic.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

COVID seems to be exploding in Vietnam, which had been a success story for so long - record highs of 16,954 cases and 765 deaths reported Tuesday, that's a tenth of the cases and more than a third of the deaths reported during the entire pandemic.

Heard it was bad but hadn't actually checked the numbers

 

[gentlegreen]

An epic Q&A last night...

Somewhat depressingly towards the end, Victor calls this a 3 year pandemic and that there will be constant reinfection from animals even once most humans have sufficient immunity ...

 

[LDC]

IIRC the jump back into animals that act as a reservoir for the disease to then jump back into humans is covered in the SAGE meeting about long term pandemic possibilities. Don't have the link to hand, but was posted somewhere on here 1-2 weeks ago, sure elbows or someone can recall it.

 

[sparkybird]

I see the UK has finally put Mexico on the red list. It's one of only a few countries that have no testing or quarantine requirements what so ever to enter. Poor Mexico..

 

[Petcha]

Give it 12 months MrCurry for an answer.
I wonder if we will see New Zealand permanently seal itself from the world in the near future.

I guess that depends on how many billions you have

Google co-founder Larry Page granted entry to New Zealand despite border closure, report says

Billionaire reportedly made trip after his child fell ill in Fiji and needed hospital treatment in New Zealand

www.theguardian.com

Apparently he's not the only billionaire holed up down there

 

[purves grundy]

COVID seems to be exploding in Vietnam, which had been a success story for so long - record highs of 16,954 cases and 765 deaths reported Tuesday, that's a tenth of the cases and more than a third of the deaths reported during the entire pandemic.

All over SEA really, with Myanmar unsurprisingly looking likely to be the most fucked in the longer term. My colleague's mum and dad both died within days of each other last week, another lost her husband (aged 53)... everyone I know is affected in some way. Coup and COVID / COUPVID is a deadly combination.

 

[elbows]

IIRC the jump back into animals that act as a reservoir for the disease to then jump back into humans is covered in the SAGE meeting about long term pandemic possibilities. Don't have the link to hand, but was posted somewhere on here 1-2 weeks ago, sure elbows or someone can recall it.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf

Animals do come up quite a lot in that document, I am quoting most but not all of those parts below.

A longer-term version of shift whereby SARS-CoV-2 undergoes a reverse zoonotic event into an animal reservoir(s). This virus is then on a separate evolutionary trajectory because the virus animals is subject to different selection processes than in humans. The SARS-CoV-2 decedents then re-emerge into humans at a later time when vaccines that have been updated to keep pace with drift in humans sufficiently mismatched so as not able to provide immunologic cross protection.

Likelihood: Realistic possibility. Impact: Medium.

What could we do? Maintain a capacity to make vaccines with updated/different spike protein variants and begin to develop broader CoV immunity in the human population to diverse coronaviruses. For example, begin to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine with strong cross protection to other CoVs potentially using other viral proteins rather than just the spike glycoprotein.

New human coronaviruses can originate from domesticated animals. HCoV-OC43 is thought to have originated from cattle in the 19th century, possibly after a recombination event that allowed it to acquire a new gene from an influenza virus. This strongly indicates the plasticity of the genome and the potential for domesticated animals to serve as reservoirs for new variants of SARS-CoV-2 that can remerge into humans.

SARS-CoV-2 can infect a wide range of animals both in nature/farms (such as minks) laboratory animals (several species of non-human primates, mice, rats, ferrets and hamsters) and companion animals (cats and dogs). SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated from bats. Thus SARS-CoV-2 has a broad host range and is capable of continuous interchange between humans and an animal reservoir (e.g. mink farms) which could lead to the generation and selection of new variants.

Infections in mink farms have been observed throughout the world. The widespread presence of the virus in an animal population will render eradication even more unlikely. There is likely to be a different level of risk of exposure and potential for new variants between farmed animals (high density) and companion animals. In either case, reverse zoonosis may occur (already seen in Denmark from mink). Zoonotic reservoirs could lead to a large, expanded population of the virus with the potential for future dramatic variant change in the virus through recombination with another coronavirus already prevalent in that animal species, akin to antigenic shift in influenza virus in terms of conferring new virus properties.

 

[nagapie]

I see the UK has finally put Mexico on the red list. It's one of only a few countries that have no testing or quarantine requirements what so ever to enter. Poor Mexico..

Shit, we have two sets of friends there with their families. One because one of the parents had a few months work there and the other because they are Mexican and hadn't been home for a visit in 4 years, including one of their children seeing his father.

 

[elbows]

Delta poses new challenges for those countries that went for more of a zero covid response, but there is something a bit surreal and twisted in the reporting of such matters by countries like ours. Perhaps its just me, with my memories of the time in March 2020 when the BBC told us that what we should do is carry on with our lives.

I find such articles especially awkward when they come to talk about how many cases and deaths these countries have had, or what constitutes a worrying level of infection in those places these days, the contrast with the results of our approach is not subtle.

Amusing headline in this case too, since we are normally told that zero covid is an impossible fantasy, rather than a prized strategy.

China: How Delta threatens a prized zero Covid strategy

China's battling its widest outbreak since Wuhan - how long can it keep Covid out?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

And to be clear, its completely fair enough to ask questions about how those sorts of approaches will evolve in future to cope, and what viable exit strategies exist. But such articles do tend to be rather revealing about a range of attitudes, choice of emphasis and propaganda.

 

[Flavour]

Green Pass in force from today in Italy. need to show proof of having been vaccinated, or else recovered from Covid within the last 6 months, or else have a negative test result from last 48 hours in order to access swimming pools, gyms, cinemas, museums, and restaurants (indoor seating only)

 

[planetgeli]

I see the UK has finally put Mexico on the red list. It's one of only a few countries that have no testing or quarantine requirements what so ever to enter. Poor Mexico..

Mexico has been outrageous and is paying for it. Though apparently tourists are immune.

“It’s important to highlight that infections are occurring among the young locals,” he said. “We have enough hospital beds for them, if they’re needed. But it’s not happening among tourists.”

This is from an article that contains a tourist's tale of being infected on holiday in Mexico.

Covid Explodes in Cancun, Los Cabos as New Wave Hits Mexico

A third coronavirus wave fueled by the highly contagious delta variant is battering two of Mexico’s most popular tourist destinations on opposite coasts, Los Cabos in the Pacific and Cancun on the Caribbean.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Hanoi lockdown extended for two weeks.
Police checkpoints in the street in some areas, my friend there is not used to the silence of it all.

 

[sparkybird]

Shit, we have two sets of friends there with their families. One because one of the parents had a few months work there and the other because they are Mexican and hadn't been home for a visit in 4 years, including one of their children seeing his father.

I hope they can get back before Monday or go somewhere on the amber list to quarantine before returning to UK

 

[sparkybird]

Mexico has been outrageous and is paying for it. Though apparently tourists are immune.


This is from an article that contains a tourist's tale of being infected on holiday in Mexico.

Covid Explodes in Cancun, Los Cabos as New Wave Hits Mexico

A third coronavirus wave fueled by the highly contagious delta variant is battering two of Mexico’s most popular tourist destinations on opposite coasts, Los Cabos in the Pacific and Cancun on the Caribbean.

www.bloomberg.com

I was surprised it took as long as it did to go on the list. No restrictions to enter and pretty much no restrictions when you are there now. They are vaccinating (30-39 in the state I usually visit) but this is first jab only, it's really badly organised (people queuing for through the night for hours and hours) and Mexico has a really young population. They seem to be focussing on teachers now so that schools and universities can go back fully (having been closed for almost 18 months - imagine that!)

 

[elbows]

I have not seen the channe 4 report mentioned here:

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

grim, it's available here

in vietnam they have set up rice ATM for poor people so they don't starve

 

[spring-peeper]

Canada was off to a slow start.
We do not have any labs to make the vaccines, and countries were saying the vaccines should be used in their country first.
I understand that, but look at us now!!!

 

[Combustible]

Delta poses new challenges for those countries that went for more of a zero covid response, but there is something a bit surreal and twisted in the reporting of such matters by countries like ours. Perhaps its just me, with my memories of the time in March 2020 when the BBC told us that what we should do is carry on with our lives.

I find such articles especially awkward when they come to talk about how many cases and deaths these countries have had, or what constitutes a worrying level of infection in those places these days, the contrast with the results of our approach is not subtle.

Amusing headline in this case too, since we are normally told that zero covid is an impossible fantasy, rather than a prized strategy.

China: How Delta threatens a prized zero Covid strategy

China's battling its widest outbreak since Wuhan - how long can it keep Covid out?

www.bbc.co.uk

Not to mention the vague unsupported comments about the vaccines, I can't imagine there being similar comments about worries about vaccines in the UK, since many recent UK cases have also been amongst the fully vaccinated. I don't see why the article talks about "an apparent lack of confidence in their vaccines", since even if the Chinese vaccines are equally effective against the Delta variant (~60% against symptomatic infection), that would be insufficient to prevent mass infection. While I agree it's reasonable to ask what will be done in the long term, I am reasonably optimistic that the latest outbreaks can be controlled, Nanjing now seems to be down to low numbers (just one new case today), and most the cases seem to be in neighbouring Yangzhou where presumably the same approach can be taken. I guess would could change things would be if a mRNA-based booster jab becomes available, which is apparently under development.