Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Although to be honest, they havent been 100% clear about the new plan, and probably dont know themselves yet. But key aspects of the old plan are gone. Sometimes I have my doubts about whether they have genuinely abandoned all of them, and certainly the old graph still persists in some media messages.

A very different graph from the Imperial College report illustrates a possible replacement strategy, if they do go for the 'turn the measures on and off' approach.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[killer b]

49% of people in the latest poll reckon cuntface is doing a good job with coronavirus.

Let that sink in.

I think at times of national crisis there's a tendency to rally round the flag, which accounts for most of that 49%

People haven't started dying in very large numbers yet (hello next week), so for people who aren't paying that much attention, a light-touch, incremental approach probably looks sensible.

 

[klang]

I think at times of national crisis there's a tendency to rally round the flag, which accounts for most of that 49%

People haven't started dying in very large numbers yet (hello next week), so for people who aren't paying that much attention, a light-touch, incremental approach probably looks sensible.

the promises of financial support helped as well.

 

[killer b]

the promises of financial support helped as well.

that only dropped tonight though, it won't be picked up on the opinion polls yet.

But yeah - I expect the polling numbers to improve after today

 

[elbows]

Although to be honest, they havent been 100% clear about the new plan, and probably dont know themselves yet.

When I said that, I should have said that I'm referring to the medium term onwards.

I'm sure they would like to avoid repeatedly having to switch the full measures on and off for such a long period, for economic reasons as much as anything. There will be great pressure around the world for new medical interventions to get added to the arsenal. And there are a number of other possibilities depending on how far we are able to take testing capacity and associated strategies, and whether they try to go down a big data/bye bye privacy/surveillance state approach at some stage.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

So why is closing the pubs and schools etc a good idea now and it wasn't a week ago? Just like a complete lock down hasn't been announced but it will only be a matter if time, next week is my guess.
The only way to stop the virus spreading to catastrophic levels is to jump on it hard as early as possible.
And it needs to be spelt out to the public exactly how catostophic that it will be if that action isn't taken.

This cack handed, incremental response has already very likely doomed thousands.
The news that people who can are streaming out of London is utterly predictable and a perfect way of ensuring the infection gets spread all over the country.
I have literally been in tears today at the prospect of what is about to happen. Its like a scifi horror film for real.
Our government are enabling a disaster.

On the face of it it looks like lock down should've been done a week ago, I think the same thing. OTOH though we don't know exactly what the modeling being looked at is.

I couldn't give a monkees about the politicians in this as they are, thankfully, more or less yes men when it comes to listening to scientists. One thing that gives me more confidence is that we are, historically at least, very good at public health interventions and I don't see that being any different now. Furthermore, if you look at the numbers France didn't lock down until their confirmed cases were at six thousand odd and their population is more or less on a par with ours. We are at around half their cases and have now shut down all public social spaces.

It's a fast moving target, it's scary and people have and are going to die but government enabling a public disaster? I don't think so. You could very well argue the case austerity has damaged our ability to deal with it, no doubt it has but I think that's an argument for another day at the moment.

Sending you a big, socially distant hug

 

[treelover]

So, nothing from Sunak on benefits,, people are having to spend more stock piling, higher prices, etc

 

[Sasaferrato]

Times havent been normal since 2016 , what ever colours you fly :-(

I suppose the sole benefit of Coronavirus (which is a huge family, including the common cold) is that it takes your mind off Brexit.

 

[weltweit]

I think they could have attacked with contact tracing and testing and more testing earlier and more strongly than they did, they seemed to sit back into a - the virus will make its own way - sort of mentality while the WHO were still saying loudly that countries could massively affect the outcomes by their actions. Too little too late and if we do follow Italy, and France and Spain and Germany, Europe will be a disaster zone.

 

[elbows]

They want it to peak in the summer, when the NHS is best able to cope, but at the same time even out the peak over a number of months, instead of a few of a weeks. The last thing we need is to totally suppress it now, only for it to blow up in our faces as we come into winter.

And in case my previous response to this was not accepted as proof of the change, here is where the BBC are with this subject right now:

Coronavirus: When will the outbreak end and life get back to normal?

The huge challenge the world faces to find an exit strategy to end the lockdowns and return to normal.

www.bbc.co.uk

I dont agree with every single sentiment expressed by people in that article, but the point is that its clear enough that the old plan and timetable is dead, it is nowhere really to be found in the landscape described by this article. I mean obviously there are still some similarities in the sense of taking measures now and reducing ICU demand, but the whole 'delay it till the summer' thing was part of the herd immunity plan that went down so badly after the press conference of 8 days ago. If you didnt notice the dramatic change, its because the government press conferences since then rather tried to smooth over the chasm between the two approaches, but every day the rhetorical shift took another step, the timetable morphed, and some clear statements illuminated some of these aspects, mostly from Whitty. I may try and find a few suitable quotes from his this week that illustrate my point further.

 

[elbows]

I think they could have attacked with contact tracing and testing and more testing earlier and more strongly than they did, they seemed to sit back into a - the virus will make its own way - sort of mentality while the WHO were still saying loudly that countries could massively affect the outcomes by their actions. Too little too late and if we do follow Italy, and France and Spain and Germany, Europe will be a disaster zone.

And we talked about it here for all the weeks that this was happening. If I had time to go back through the original main thread then I'm sure I would find numerous examples of people asking why we werent doing more during the misleadingly named 'containment' phase, and numerous examples of me explaining why we werent doing more by describing the orthodox approach that we and many other countries would take in the early stages of a pandemic/potential pandemic, right up until that approach died on its arse.

 

[treelover]

Doctor on Ch4 news, savaged NHS attrition over last ten years, saying she doesn't feel her colleagues can cope or be protected.

 

[platinumsage]

Doctor on Ch4 news, savaged NHS attrition over last ten years, saying she doesn't feel her colleagues can cope or be protected.

TBH no health service in any country is going to be in the position that it's staff can cope and be protected.

 

[bimble]

TBH no health service in any country is going to be the position that it's staff can cope and be protected.

Yep but there’ll be measurable comparable outcomes with some (eg ours) faring worse than others. I think that’s an element of what the ruling party are worried about.

 

[Azrael]

TBH no health service in any country is going to be the position that it's staff can cope and be protected.

If it's allowed to spread unchecked this is absolutely true. Exponential growth will swamp ICUs. Which is why suppression's the only option. Asian countries that've done this have kept cases and deaths low without draconian measures.

There's gonna be a reckoning for the entire West as to why we ignored hard data from Asia, disregarded quarantine measures, and through that gross negligence, caused untold thousands of preventable deaths.

 

[mx wcfc]

I think they could have attacked with contact tracing and testing and more testing earlier and more strongly than they did, they seemed to sit back into a - the virus will make its own way - sort of mentality while the WHO were still saying loudly that countries could massively affect the outcomes by their actions. Too little too late and if we do follow Italy, and France and Spain and Germany, Europe will be a disaster zone.

Not long ago, the WHO were advocating open borders and continued international travel to keep the economy going.
If China's borders had been closed in January, this wouldn't have happened.

 

[weltweit]

And we talked about it here for all the weeks that this was happening. If I had time to go back through the original main thread then I'm sure I would find numerous examples of people asking why we werent doing more during the misleadingly named 'containment' phase, and numerous examples of me explaining why we werent doing more by describing the orthodox approach that we and many other countries would take in the early stages of a pandemic/potential pandemic, right up until that approach died on its arse.

Don't worry elbows I am not having a go at you. I just find it frustrating where we are now. The only way is forward from today, with the situation we are in. Good news is there seems to be enough PPE for the NHS it was just not being distributed well, I hope there will be more ventilators quickly, and perhaps ECMO machines. What can the rest of us do? follow our instructions, distancing and working if we can, and perhaps help local vulnerable people. I tried to help one local chap in his 70s here only to find 1) that they are more prepared than I was and 2) they offered to make me some bread themselves because at that time I didn't have any!!

 

[Azrael]

Yep but there’ll be measurable comparable outcomes with some (eg ours) faring worse than others. I think that’s an element of what the ruling party are worried about.

As they should be! A pattern's already clear as day: rapid testing, tracing and quarantine suppresses the virus' spread and allows life to continue close to normal. Citizens of Taiwan and Singapore, which nipped it in the bud, are getting on with their lives, as are those of South Korea, who successfully got an outbreak under control. Hong Kong's citizens, who remember SARS, would tolerate no delay and pressured their government into action.

There's no excuse for Western governments to have ignored the necessity of suppression: WHO have been screaming it from the rooftops, as have leading epidemiologists. It's little wonder so many are pushing the second wave myth for all they're worth: when populations realize what happened, they'll be rightly enraged, and seeking justice.

 

[Petcha]

So why is closing the pubs and schools etc a good idea now and it wasn't a week ago? Just like a complete lock down hasn't been announced but it will only be a matter if time, next week is my guess.
The only way to stop the virus spreading to catastrophic levels is to jump on it hard as early as possible.
And it needs to be spelt out to the public exactly how catostophic that it will be if that action isn't taken.

This cack handed, incremental response has already very likely doomed thousands.
The news that people who can are streaming out of London is utterly predictable and a perfect way of ensuring the infection gets spread all over the country.
I have literally been in tears today at the prospect of what is about to happen. Its like a scifi horror film for real.
Our government are enabling a disaster.

My gf is also in tears. She's a nurse in west london. Nuff said really. But her colleague who was supposed to get married in two weeks has had to cancel the wedding has now been posted to some kind of 'Corona Task Force'. On her wedding day. They also had two patients die on them today. And been told to prepare for tenfold. So I guess my bitching about being broke kinda pales.

 

[weltweit]

Not long ago, the WHO were advocating open borders and continued international travel to keep the economy going.

I haven't been following everything the WHO have been saying apart from more recently that they said we can affect the outcome by our actions.

If China's borders had been closed in January, this wouldn't have happened.

I think infected people arrived in Italy perhaps as early as Dec / Jan and went unnoticed into the population causing them to get a head start in their infections compared to other European countries. (I have no evidence for this though)

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not long ago, the WHO were advocating open borders and continued international travel to keep the economy going.
If China's borders had been closed in January, this wouldn't have happened.

Italy imposed a ban on flights from China on 31 January, first of only 2 countries in Europe to do so, went well, did't it.

 

[bimble]

As they should be! A pattern's already clear as day: rapid testing, tracing and quarantine suppresses the virus' spread and allows life to continue close to normal. Citizens of Taiwan and Singapore, which nipped it in the bud, are getting on with their lives, as are those of South Korea, who successfully got an outbreak under control. Hong Kong's citizens, who remember SARS, would tolerate no delay and pressured their government into action.

There's no excuse for Western governments to have ignored the necessity of suppression: WHO have been screaming it from the rooftops, as have leading epidemiologists. It's little wonder so many are pushing the second wave myth for all they're worth: when populations realize what happened, they'll be rightly enraged, and seeking justice.

Why is the second wave a myth can you explain?

 

[Azrael]

Italy imposed a ban on flights from China on 31 January, first of only 2 countries in Europe to do so, went well, did't it.

I've seen this point repeatedly made, and it overlooks the fact that travel restrictions must be combined with mass testing, tracing and quarantine. That's where Italy went so tragically wrong (and I'm not singling her out, it's a collective failure across the West).

Taiwan banned flights from the affected regions immediately when the gravity of the situation became clear, but combined it with other measures. Her numbers speak for themselves.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've seen this point repeatedly made, and it overlooks the fact that travel restrictions must be combined with mass testing, tracing and quarantine. That's where Italy went so tragically wrong (and I'm not singling her out, it's a collective failure across the West).

Taiwan banned flights from the affected regions immediately when the gravity of the situation became clear, but combined it with other measures. Her numbers speak for themselves.

Taiwan has seen confirmed cases go up 25% in the last 24 hours of reporting.

 

[Azrael]

Why is the second wave a myth can you explain?

Comes from influenza modeling, and was responsible for Whitehall's disastrous "herd immunity" plan. Basically rapid suppression will cause a worse "second wave" of the virus when measure are lifted.

It's never explained how on Earth this is supposed to happen. If there's another outbreak, the same suppression measures can be reimposed then eased off again. Moreover, if the virus isn't endemic, it has no reservoir from which a "second wave" can emerge.

Zoonosis could repeat, but the odds would be greatly reduced with the closure of wet markets and other unsafe practices, and again, if it happened, suppression could be repeated.

It's become an article of faith, and it's caused thousands of needless deaths.

 

[Azrael]

Taiwan has seen confirmed cases go up 25% in the last 24 hours of reporting.

Mainly imported from abroad, so different in kind to a "second wave" arising from an endemic disease. They've been located and quarantined.

 

[mx wcfc]

Italy imposed a ban on flights from China on 31 January, first of only 2 countries in Europe to do so, went well, did't it.

No help at all if people could just fly from China to Singapore, then Italy, or to anywhere else in Europe.

 

[Azrael]

No help at all if people could just fly from China to Singapore, then Italy, or to anywhere else in Europe.

Exactly. It's one quarantine measure among many. All countries that've successfully suppressed Covid-19 have employed a multi-pronged approach.

It's incredible that so many have looked to Italy and concluded not that she should've done more, but done less.

 

[weltweit]

Just heard a snippet that the mobile companies may be asked to track whether people are complying with social distancing. I know in China there was a lot of surveillance, I suppose one could expect the UK Gov to enquire about it, how though, and but really?

 

[elbows]

The old orthodox way of thinking about things was about more than a 2nd wave, there were a lot of other assumptions wrapped up in the approach too.

The WHO's own orthodoxy meant they did not recommend widespread travel restrictions, border closures etc. I talked about this at the time and then they proceeded to reiterate it.

It was therefore not surprising that orthodox approaches to the 'containment' phase in other countries dominated thinking for quite a period.

That period really should have ended no later than when the WHO had press conferences about, and then published a report by, their team that went to China. This was the moment that the orthodox 'influenza-based pandemic planning' approach should have been ditched, and the alternative approach no longer considered some unthinkable thing that couldnt be done here. The WHO press conference was on February 24th. The report was published on February 28th.