Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Cid]

So... we’re going to have ‘back to the office’ encouragement (which clearly also means public transport), schools back... and impending cold and flu season. I may be wide of the mark now, as presumably the science has moved on while I was looking the other way, and haven’t paid much attention to schools measures, but doesn’t exactly seem like a great combination.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I guess fewer people are using the app than in March.

More than ever. 4 million now. But once infection levels are low, numbers can bounce up and down more in percentage terms through natural variation.

 

[Teaboy]

So... we’re going to have ‘back to the office’ encouragement (which clearly also means public transport), schools back... and impending cold and flu season. I may be wide of the mark now, as presumably the science has moved on while I was looking the other way, and haven’t paid much attention to schools measures, but doesn’t exactly seem like a great combination.

The jungle drums are beating for sure. I suspect they'll let the school situation settle in for a few weeks before the big stick comes out.

 

[MickiQ]

Going Back To The Office seems to be driven by the fear that lots of secondary businesses that rely on office workers for customers are going down the drain. I doubt the Govt will get very far with this to be honest, No company will want a Covid outbreak in their offices both through a) fear of being found wanting on the H&S front and being held liable and b) the impact that the entire staff vanishing off for 14 days quarantine is likely to have on the bottom line.

 

[Teaboy]

Going Back To The Office seems to be driven by the fear that lots of secondary businesses that rely on office workers for customers are going down the drain. I doubt the Govt will get very far with this to be honest, No company will want a Covid outbreak in their offices both through a) fear of being found wanting on the H&S front and being held liable and b) the impact that the entire staff vanishing off for 14 days quarantine is likely to have on the bottom line.

I suppose most people who have to quarantine will still be able to work from home anyway. Well those who have been working from home previously.

The raise an interesting question regarding the H&S liability of companies. Whilst its virtually impossible to say for definite where someone contracts covid there have been quite a few work based outbreaks already. Has anything happened in regard to those companies? I've not seen anything.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I suppose most people who have to quarantine will still be able to work from home anyway. Well those who have been working from home previously.

The raise an interesting question regarding the H&S liability of companies. Whilst its virtually impossible to say for definite where someone contracts covid there have been quite a few work based outbreaks already. Has anything happened in regard to those companies? I've not seen anything.

You'd have to prove they were negligent in applying the govt guidelines, no? Probably pretty hard to do. Hard truth is surely that in certain environments (ie big meat processing factories), following the govt guidelines doesn't necessarily prevent infection events.

 

[IC3D]

I haven't grasped as a healthcare worker what happens if any staff get get it now. I'm sure it's in my email somewhere, but I doubt we'll all be told to self isolate.

 

[2hats]

the ZoeCovid study has been estimating a falling number of symptomatic covid-19 cases in the UK for the last couple of weeks

I guess fewer people are using the app than in March.

One wonders about the on-going degree of uptake and engagement with the public... (and thus the degree to which this might colour any conclusions, skew the utility of the data). Indeed the churn of long time users, versus new users, versus returning (intermittent) users.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

One wonders about the on-going degree of uptake and engagement with the public... (and thus the degree to which this might colour any conclusions, skew the utility of the data). Indeed the churn of long time users, versus new users, versus returning (intermittent) users.

Yes, sure. I'm still doing it every day, but I'm sure people have dropped off, and also that some joined only when they got ill. I don't know how they account for that beyond what they say in the weekly report they put out, which states that only those who have reported within the last seven days are included in the analysis. There is the odd gap on the map where they say there are insufficient contributors.

 

[elbows]

I haven't grasped as a healthcare worker what happens if any staff get get it now. I'm sure it's in my email somewhere, but I doubt we'll all be told to self isolate.

I still wonder if the desire to have manual management control over institutional outbreaks, eg fudge things massively to stop self-isolation rules from wiping out most of your healthcare staff, is one of the reasons they've backed away from a couple of aspects of the track & trace app.

 

[Wilf]

I get the impression my employer,, a university, is taking it's cue from the government at a very reactive level. We've currently got (yet to be finalised) plans to allow some teaching on campus, along with some sort of case by case exemption for staff with specific conditions. The 'back to the office' message will nudge things further towards on campus teaching. But then the government and, presumably, my and other universities know that students returning to campus is a potential problem. Probably through groups of students socialising as much as catching covid in the classroom. Embodies the central contradiction in the government's approach, they want a return to economic normality but know that will lead to multiple spikes and ultimately a second wave.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I can't see how bubbles are supposed to work. Traveling to college daily, me, Mrs SI and our lad are then going to go off to three bubbles.

 

[maomao]

I get the impression my employer,, a university, is taking it's cue from the government at a very reactive level. We've currently got (yet to be finalised) plans to allow some teaching on campus, along with some sort of case by case exemption for staff with specific conditions. The 'back to the office' message will nudge things further towards on campus teaching. But then the government and, presumably, my and other universities know that students returning to campus is a potential problem. Probably through groups of students socialising as much as catching covid in the classroom. Embodies the central contradiction in the government's approach, they want a return to economic normality but know that will lead to multiple spikes and ultimately a second wave.

I'm studying this year and I have a very shiny booklet on 'dual delivery' education (or a link to a very shiny PDF anyway) and no news yet when my first class or lecture actually is.

 

[killer b]

I'm studying this year and I have a very shiny booklet on 'dual delivery' education (or a link to a very shiny PDF anyway) and no news yet when my first class or lecture actually is.

Mrs B is a lecturer for a university up here, and if things are anything like how they are for her they are still working out how the fuck they are going to do it.

 

[thismoment]

I don’t understand why the government is going for the big push for people to return to work at the same time as children are returning to school. I would have thought that a phased return would’ve been better? In the same way that different business (pubs/leisure centres/beauty salons etc were open at different times, we didn’t have them all open that same weekend did we?) If children’s education is so important shouldn’t people who can and want to work from home continue to do so?

 

[elbows]

I don’t understand why the government is going for the big push for people to return to work at the same time as children are returning to school. I would have thought that a phased return would’ve been better? In the same way that different business (pubs/leisure centres/beauty salons etc were open at different times, we didn’t have them all open that same weekend did we?) If children’s education is so important shouldn’t people who can and want to work from home continue to do so?

Because they are dicks. And also one of the reasons they want schools back isnt the education aspect, its about childcare/getting people back to work.

It sounds like there will also be an advertising campaign for us to take the piss out of, which will also demonstrate where the governments priorities are.

Scotland is taking a different approach that is less overtly repugnant and misguided. Following quote is from BBC live updates page that I cant link to properly on this forum at the moment due to it thinking the link is media.

Nicola Sturgeon has said she will not "countenance" people being intimidated into going back to work in offices.

Scotland's First Minister said reopening offices too soon would risk the virus spreading and compromise the ability to keep schools open.

"I will not countenance in Scotland any kind of narrative around this that is seeking to almost intimidate people back to work before, as a country, we have taken a decision that that is safe," she said.

The UK government is planning an advertising blitz to encourage people back to workplaces.

 

[maomao]

The problem is that central London (and other city and town centres) are still pretty dead. It's one thing poshos who work in glass towers not going back because they can still steal everybody's money from home but what about all the people who work selling them rubbish food and coffee flavoured milkshakes, driving them about and delivering their parcels etc. Those people can't work from home.

 

[thismoment]

Because they are dicks. And also one of the reasons they want schools back isnt the education aspect, its about childcare/getting people back to work.

Ah! Goodness!

 

[thismoment]

The problem is that central London (and other city and town centres) are still pretty dead. It's one thing poshos who work in glass towers not going back because they can still steal everybody's money from home but what about all the people who work selling them rubbish food and coffee flavoured milkshakes, driving them about and delivering their parcels etc. Those people can't work from home.

I just thought that the big push for adverts and everything else to encourage people to go back to the office could have started after the schools opened. That we wait to see what happens when all the years groups go back to school then encourage people to return to offices.To do it at the same time seems like a lot. But I guess that would be partly reliant on the furlough scheme continuing as it started not the reducing rate... I don’t know

 

[elbows]

The problem is that central London (and other city and town centres) are still pretty dead. It's one thing poshos who work in glass towers not going back because they can still steal everybody's money from home but what about all the people who work selling them rubbish food and coffee flavoured milkshakes, driving them about and delivering their parcels etc. Those people can't work from home.

Well of course thats an issue with the same sort of aspects as the rest of the impossible balancing act. For example, they wont be able to make a living if there is a large second wave either.

I call the government dicks not for trying to navigate this impossible balancing act, of course they had to try reopening various things. But they've done it badly and their failure to give people confidence about their safety is one of the reasons they will have to try to overcompensate with advertising campaigns and threats.

In my book its going to be some time yet before people who can actually do their jobs from home should really be encouraged to return to the standard working environment. And everyone who isnt in that category needs to continue to receive economic life support. Governments who go for potentially higher returns are also taking greater risks, and if it blows up in their face then nobody will end up better off than if the cautionary approach was stuck to in the first place.

 

[two sheds]

In my book

oooh when's it coming out?

 

[existentialist]

Because they are dicks. And also one of the reasons they want schools back isnt the education aspect, its about childcare/getting people back to work.

It sounds like there will also be an advertising campaign for us to take the piss out of, which will also demonstrate where the governments priorities are.

Scotland is taking a different approach that is less overtly repugnant and misguided. Following quote is from BBC live updates page that I cant link to properly on this forum at the moment due to it thinking the link is media.

What I really can't credit is just how ludicrously inept all of their messaging has been so far. You're right - whatever message emerges, and it looks like the "let's all get back to work one", it will be delivered clumsily, will blatantly miss some critical detail and need hasty revision, and will be followed by numerous examples of senior Government ministers actually doing the very opposite of what they insist we should all be doing. It's going to be a Facepalm Festival.

 

[quimcunx]

I suppose most people who have to quarantine will still be able to work from home anyway. Well those who have been working from home previously.

The raise an interesting question regarding the H&S liability of companies. Whilst its virtually impossible to say for definite where someone contracts covid there have been quite a few work based outbreaks already. Has anything happened in regard to those companies? I've not seen anything.

While quarantine, unlike getting ill, still allows people to wfh it would still be disruptive. Work equipment that was couriered to your home then couriered back to the office (if that happened) has to be sent back to your home for instance. Then 2 weeks later back to the office.

Also if a staff member's child has to quarantine....

 

[spitfire]

Because they are dicks. And also one of the reasons they want schools back isnt the education aspect, its about childcare/getting people back to work.

It sounds like there will also be an advertising campaign for us to take the piss out of, which will also demonstrate where the governments priorities are.

Scotland is taking a different approach that is less overtly repugnant and misguided. Following quote is from BBC live updates page that I cant link to properly on this forum at the moment due to it thinking the link is media.

As ever the reality on the ground to what they think will happen is slightly different.

We used to do Breakfast Club and After school till 5.45 so that we could both work full time.

Our school is not taking kids before 09.30 and all out at 3.30. So there goes affordable child care. Mlle. Fire won't be able to go back to FT work. I won't go into details but I have to keep working FT for the foreseeable as if I don't my company will go under.

I wonder how many other parents will be in a similar situation?

 

[Cid]

oooh when's it coming out?

Soon as someone gets round to compiling all his posts on here...

 

[elbows]

I'll only write a book if I can do it in the format of Colemanballs, if thats not too dated and obscure a reference by now. There are probably enough Coronaballs by now to provide sufficient material, thats for sure.

This weeks surveillance report continues to show a largely unremarkable picture. Although I have been practicing how to interpret viral resurgence and hospital etc data by looking at certain countries in Europe in the last week or two, for now I am going to avoid the potential mistakes that could be made in equating the outbreak situation here with whats been seen there of late. eg until we see a more notable uptick and variation in the sorts of and quantity of clusters and less obviously connected cases being detected, I hesitate to view the current situation as simply being a case of our fate being the same as but x weeks behind Spain, France etc. But thats partly because there are big unknowns in my mind about the role that seeding from holiday-related infections will have on the disease in this country this time around. It appeared to have a notable effect back with that half-term holiday at the worst moment, but behaviours and measures were different back then.

I mean having said that there is usually something very specific I can highlight in this weekly report, for example see below for this weeks example, an obvious rise at the end of the graph showing ICU Covid-19 admissions for the 65-74 age group. But these sorts of things need to carry on and show an obvious trend for weeks before I can attempt to make an important story out of them.


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_35_FINAL.PDF

Which in turn is from National COVID-19 surveillance reports

By the way note that those are weekly rates. I've started generating such rates myself out of various daily data, because they allow trends to be spotted and amplified in a particular way, and because I saw them being used usefully in some of the European data I've been learning how to zoom in on properly.

 

[Cloo]

Boris' rhetoric on returning to work is especially gross, manipulative and autocratic. 'Ohhhh, if you're enjoying your lovely, wovely working from home, just remember your boss is more likely to drop you if you don't show up in the office because of course no one can really believe you're working'. I do hope lots of employers make public statements that they are not going to favour people who come in over those who don't.

 

[frogwoman]

Eh? I have been exclusively working from home since 2018 and this is probably the hardest I have ever worked in any job in my entire life.

 

[frogwoman]

What does that slug know about work anyway? Probably quite a lot about pretending to be working tbf.

 

[Cloo]

Eh? I have been exclusively working from home since 2018 and this is probably the hardest I have ever worked in any job in my entire life.

I have said words to that effect on Twitter and got 85 likes so far - it is literally the hardest I have ever worked in my 20 years of working! I will confess, historically, if I didn't have a lot on, I didn't do an awful lot at home (but really, was I doing much more if I didn't have much more on at work?!) Mail/Express are basically deliberately conflating 'going back into the office' with 'going back to work' so red-faced retirees can be up in arms about all these lazy young people not wanting to work.