Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[two sheds]

And next .... pay rises for nurses that the tories denied them with proper naming and shaming?

Full list of MPs who voted against giving nurses and firefighters 'fair' pay rise

Tories and DUP vote against Labour ammendment to end 1% public sector annual pay increase cap.

www.ibtimes.co.uk

 

[Ax^]

and just remember this when Boris and the other fucking tory scum are trying to fucking claim credit for how They responded after this is all over

 

[Azrael]

One senior MP told MailOnline that Mr Johnson was 'going to have to find someone to blame' for abandoning community testing, with public anger growing.

'It really is the wrong decision. A bad decision,' they said. The MP said too often in PHE it was a case of 'nice title, get a gong, and move on'.

Those John Ashton calls the pointy-heads are so comprehensively and unequivocally screwed every which way. Good. I'll take what tiny measure of catharsis I can get ATM.

 

[Marty1]

Exactly. South Korea tried to save every life, and even after they had terrible luck with that cult, their achievement to date's remarkable. Whitehall knowingly allowed containment to fail, accepting a horrific death toll to in pursuit of a goal so politically toxic not even Trump dare refer to it by name now. Fundamentally different thinking.

And now they admit they don't even know how long any acquired immunity lasts!

Yeah, I wonder what the ‘do nothing’ strategy is called?

 

[Ax^]

Herd Immunity strategy was it not



this cunts idea

 

[Azrael]

"... well you know it’s a concept, it’s a concept -- if you don’t mind death".

Not even Trump can stomach it now.

 

[elbows]

She'll certainly be challenged by Devi Sridhar, Professor of Public Heath at Edinburgh, who, along with three of her colleagues, have joined the Scottish Government's advisory group.

That's positive, but doesn't change how incredible it is for Scotland's CMO to make such an unequivocally wrong statement at this stage, when even the Mail's publishing leaders demanding mass testing. Only dogma can explain this, and any inquiry will have to discover how it went so deep, with such disastrous consequences.

Often the absolute dog shit worst timing from these sorts of officials stems from the fact they say a lot of this stuff when they are on the defensive. In this case, that applies and the timing was especially bad, could not have picked a worse day to come out with that shit given the UK government feeling the need to go in hard with a new '5 pillars' PR face to their plans.

 

[BCBlues]

The other problem with targets is that they can be used just to deflect criticism "well we've got a target now" and when the target isn't met "ah well there was a problem with the supplier, we've got another target now"

What's known in football terms as " moving the goalposts". Trouble is, you move them too many times they dont stand up at all.

 

[platinumsage]

Public health in the U.K. has seen a big shift in recent years from disease outbreaks to things like sugar taxes and minimum alcohol pricing. I really think it has been a mistake to have these things under one umbrella.

 

[existentialist]

I like the way that when they fail to meet a testing target they just announce an even bigger target instead

I guess it's a kind of twist on the sunk cost fallacy...

 

[two sheds]

Hadn't heard of that - but also why people can stay in cults, particularly if they've spent money on them.

 

[Petcha]

Is it a stupid question to ask - why have we already bought millions of these antibody tests but still testing whether they actually work? I'm a layman, but isnt that a bit arse about face?

 

[elbows]

Is it a stupid question to ask - why have we already bought millions of these antibody tests but still testing whether they actually work? I'm a layman, but isnt that a bit arse about face?

It will mostly have been contracts to supply, that only go ahead in full if the tests pass their validation test, which some have clearly failed to do.

 

[killer b]

because if they wait until it's confirmed they work, every other country in the world will be competing to buy them too. It's gambling.

 

[Petcha]

It will mostly have been contracts to supply, that only go ahead in full if the tests pass their validation test, which some have clearly failed to do.

So why did we pay for shit that we didn't know worked? Even if it's just a down payment.

 

[two sheds]

So why did we pay for shit that we didn't know worked? Even if it's just a down payment.

panic buying - like toilet paper

 

[Azrael]

Often the absolute dog shit worst timing from these sorts of officials stems from the fact they say a lot of this stuff when they are on the defensive. In this case, that applies and the timing was especially bad, could not have picked a worse day to come out with that shit given the UK government feeling the need to go in hard with a new '5 pillars' PR face to their plans.

Contender for worst timing ever. Not to mention that making such an unequivocal statement at this time potentially opens her to all kinds of liability.

As Whitehall's blown a chance to match their borders rhetoric with action, so too have Bute House squandered an opportunity for Scotland to chart a different course to Whitehall. With health and criminal justice devolved, they could've introduced early distancing and massive testing and tracing. The right thing to do would've also been the politically smart thing to do. Wasted.

 

[Tankus]

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

the joys of just in time

 

[elbows]

Those trying to follow trends in deaths statistics, who have been thwarted by the nature of the data, now have a new way to get an accurate picture over time.

I am still waiting for signs that they will successfully publish this data every day, but it looks like for England there is now a way to see the hospital deaths totals so far for the date they actually took place, rather than the date they were reported. This does mean that they have to keep going back and updating totals for previous dates, as the info comes in. But at least we get to see the historical picture gradually emerge.

NHS England » Total number of COVID-19 deaths in England by date of death

www.england.nhs.uk

I will talk about Scotlands new approach once they have started doing it properly on a daily basis, and once I've had time to look to see whether they updated the figures so far yet, to incorporate the additional historical deaths announced earlier today.

For Wales I am out of date as to the format of their released data, and Northern Ireland I havent investigated yet either.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

the joys of just in time

I found bog roll yesterday! I was on my last roll as well. Didn't panic, just bought a pack of four... Good point about people using more though, cos we're stuck at home.

 

[elbows]

The updated Scottish numbers with the 40 additional deaths incorporated across 3 days instead of all being added to todays total in one go:

New process for reporting COVID-19 deaths

New system in place.

www.gov.scot

The data below shows the running total of the number of deaths reported, under the old and new systems, of those confirmed to have died from Coronavirus across the last few days. There are now 126 deaths confirmed using the new system.

HPS old data collation approach
Tuesday 31 March - 60
Wednesday 1 April - 76
Thursday 2 April - 86

HPS new approach using NRS records linked to laboratory data
Tuesday 31 March - 69
Wednesday 1 April - 97
Thursday 2 April - 126

 

[elbows]

Looks like some questions about the governments testing approach still remain, including one I will quote because it fits into the discussion about how much they have or havent really changed approach.

No 10 seeks to end coronavirus lockdown with 'immunity passports'

Fresh criticism over testing plan as Matt Hancock says early antibody results ‘poor’

www.theguardian.com

However, the government was also forced to acknowledge it was not likely to have the capacity to embark on a programme of mass testing for live cases in the general public, as advocated by the World Health Organization and public experts.

Instead, No 10 and health department sources confirmed the general public would primarily have to rely on the potential for an antibody test – but these are “ideally” done 28 days after an infection, to give the clearest indication of whether someone has already had the virus, according to Prof John Newton, a senior Public Health England official.

Newton said the idea of testing all those that have symptoms in the country was “unrealistic” and the as yet unproven antibody test was more likely to be used by people at home.

 

[Azrael]

Expect the Mail to add John Newton to their list of scapegoats-in-waiting alongside their hit piece on the Chief Scientist and CMO.

I guess we can be grateful they keep blurting this stuff out, but it boggles the mind they appear to have no idea what's heading their way.

 

[Azrael]

Conservative backbenchers voiced concern in private about the government’s failure to roll out testing faster, saying there was anxiety that the public mood could turn against the government if it appeared there was no end to the lockdown as a result.

A former supporter Johnson in the leadership contest said they were worried sentiment could turn rapidly: “I think the government could get blown away if people are still inside after Easter and there is no progress on testing.”

Bingo. Keep the pressure on.

 

[elbows]

Part of the reason they seem stuck on that critical issue is that over the decades there has been much interplay between orthodoxy and establishment and actual capacity. That cannot be undone in weeks, even when the penny drops. Even a modest ramp-up of swab tests is difficult for them, so well beyond that, the task of doing that on a truly massive scale to match the genuine full-on suppression strategy still seems like an alien world that is mission impossible for them, especially considering current global supply-demand imbalances in almost every key area. They admitted today that we just dont have the heritage of mass diagnostics to build on like Germany has, and that inevitably affects their perceptions of what is possible in future.

And I still question whether the full on suppression approach has actually been adopted in principal at all. I suppose if I were running the show I would want to keep some of my options open on this front, at least for a matter of weeks while various key data comes in. But I think sufficient time has passed since they u-turned, allowing for some face saving rhetoric, to determine that beyond that there is still some fundamental resistance to the real suppression approach.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Part of the reason they seem stuck on that critical issue is that over the decades there has been much interplay between orthodoxy and establishment and actual capacity. That cannot be undone in weeks, even when the penny drops. Even a modest ramp-up of swab tests is difficult for them, so well beyond that, the task of doing that on a truly massive scale to match the genuine full-on suppression strategy still seems like an alien world that is mission impossible for them, especially considering current global supply-demand imbalances in almost every key area. They admitted today that we just dont have the heritage of mass diagnostics to build on like Germany has, and that inevitably affects their perceptions of what is possible in future.

And I still question whether the full on suppression approach has actually been adopted in principal at all. I suppose if I were running the show I would want to keep some of my options open on this front, at least for a matter of weeks while various key data comes in. But I think sufficient time has passed since they u-turned, allowing for some face saving rhetoric, to determine that beyond that there is still some fundamental resistance to the real suppression approach.

A key breaking point could come a few weeks from now if things turn out Spain-scale badly, which they still could. (I'm ranking Spain as the worst-hit in Europe now - its indicators are now a lot worse than Italy's.) With other countries like Germany likely to be getting a grip on their own situations, the time may come when the UK govt has no choice but to beg for help.

 

[Azrael]

Part of the reason they seem stuck on that critical issue is that over the decades there is much interplay between orthodoxy and establishment and actual capacity. Even a modest ramp-up of swab tests is difficult for them, so well beyond that, the task of doing that on a truly massive scale to match the genuine full-on suppression strategy still seems like an alien world that is mission impossible for them, especially considering current global supply-demand imbalances in almost every key area. They admitted today that we just dont have the heritage of mass diagnostics to build on like Germany has, and that inevitably affects their perceptions of what is possible in future.

And I still question whether the full on suppression approach has actually been adopted in principal at all. I suppose if I were running the show I would want to keep some of my options open on this front, at least for a matter of weeks while various key data comes in, but I think sufficient time has past since they u-turned, allowing for some face saving, to determine that beyond that there is still some fundamental resistance to the real suppression approach.

English politicans seem increasingly onboard, especially backbench MPs (who knows with Scotland, Sturgeon did appear on stage with her "mass testing = hopeless" CMO). There's clearly dogmatic resistance in PHE, but the right-wing press are increasingly turning against them, which is an easy path as they instinctively loathe quangos.

Politicians are both desperate to drive down the death toll as rapidly as possible and to make the lockdown as short as possible. And, of course, to take no responsibility for us being here in the first place. Can't see any other path these overwhelming dual pressures lead to but a suppression approach.

They've had their exit route baked in from the start: "the science" misled them, they're as innocent as kings misled by wicked advisors. Don't expect it to work anything like that neatly, but the chief scientists and doctors should be under no illusion about how far politicians will go to save their skin, and how dispensible they're gonna be viewed by those who've been pushed them into the limelight.

 

[kabbes]

Those trying to follow trends in deaths statistics, who have been thwarted by the nature of the data, now have a new way to get an accurate picture over time.

I am still waiting for signs that they will successfully publish this data every day, but it looks like for England there is now a way to see the hospital deaths totals so far for the date they actually took place, rather than the date they were reported. This does mean that they have to keep going back and updating totals for previous dates, as the info comes in. But at least we get to see the historical picture gradually emerge.

NHS England » Total number of COVID-19 deaths in England by date of death

www.england.nhs.uk

I will talk about Scotlands new approach once they have started doing it properly on a daily basis, and once I've had time to look to see whether they updated the figures so far yet, to incorporate the additional historical deaths announced earlier today.

For Wales I am out of date as to the format of their released data, and Northern Ireland I havent investigated yet either.

Is it just me, or does that imply the peak of deaths has passed?

or are there just deaths that haven’t made it into the system yet?

 

[Azrael]

A key breaking point could come a few weeks from now if things turn out Spain-scale badly, which they still could. (I'm ranking Spain as the worst-hit in Europe now - its indicators are now a lot worse than Italy's.) With other countries like Germany liekly to be getting a grip on their own situations, the time may come when the UK govt has no choice but to beg for help.

Exactly what was said in the article, you can't just ride out those horrific numbers, especially when MPs are now losing relatives. They've got their leading advisors on camera defending this as deliberate policy. It does not end well for them.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is it just me, or does that imply the peak of deaths has passed?

or are there just deaths that haven’t made it into the system yet?

No, the latter.

Confirmation of COVID-19 diagnosis, death notification and reporting in central figures can take up to several days,