Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Sections of the press have not helped public sentiment in recent days by stoking the narrative that Johnson only acted this week to deflect from his other woes, but the one saving grace of rapid Omicron transmission is that those feeble narratives will quickly be washed away.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

And another one gone. This time a concert that was due to loadin in less than 2 hours time.

 

[Sue]

Sturgeon makes a point of saying that everything she is saying applies to the rest of the UK and likely elsewhere too.

I'll probably embed the full video later when I stumble upon it.

Decided the other day not to go to Scotland for Christmas. Feels like the right thing to do though I would've really liked to see my family.

 

[elbows]

Covid: Scotland facing 'tsunami' of Omicron cases

Nicola Sturgeon says the new variant is expected to replace Delta as the dominant form of the virus within days.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ms Sturgeon said that, from tomorrow, all household contacts of any Covid cases should isolate for 10 days, regardless of vaccination status and even if they initially get a negative PCR test.

Non-household contacts can leave isolation if they have had a negative PCR test and have had two vaccine doses.

Ms Sturgeon said early action was needed, with Omicron cases rising "exponentially" in recent days, and that she could not rule out further measures having to be introduced.

Ms Sturgeon said it was hoped - although not known - that Omicron may cause less severe illness on average than Delta, despite being much more transmittable.

But she said that even if this is true, the surge in cases that was now "virtually certain" would still result in a "massive" number of people needing hospital care.

And she said the numbers of people having to isolate after becoming infected, even mildly, would put a "significant strain" on the economy and public services.

ScotRail has already had to cancel 60 train services due to staff shortages as a result of Covid, while many staff at an accident and emergency unit in Lanarkshire are also having to isolate after attending a social event and becoming infected.

 

[kabbes]

We have an offsite work thing planned for 1 and 2 March that I was about to start booking venues for. I’m now wondering if I should avoid doing that. No point having the admin headache only to then have another admin headache unbooking it.

 

[Sue]

We have an offsite work thing planned for 1 and 2 March that I was about to start booking venues for. I’m now wondering if I should avoid doing that. No point having the admin headache only to then have another admin headache unbooking it.

Yesh, suspect being all organised about it at the moment will end up being more painful than not being organised about it.

 

[sojourner]

Decided the other day not to go to Scotland for Christmas. Feels like the right thing to do though I would've really liked to see my family.

Really glad my lass came up to see us when she did.

 

[elbows]

Video of the Sturgeon press conference, takes nearly 2 minutes to get started, although a giant hand makes a brief appearance on the tv screen during that otherwise non-eventful period.

 

[editor]

Nicely done

 

[Numbers]

Not too far shy of 60k of new infections reported today.

 

[brogdale]

Not too far shy of 60k of new infections reported today.

Just came to say that 58,194 new coronavirus cases sounded rather worrisome to me.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Mrs SI currently on a train from Leicester to Grimsby surrounded by maskless drunk people singing Christmas songs. Seriously, what the cunting FUCK is wrong with people?

 

[elbows]

Are they able to test for Omicron in waste water in Scotland, or is it best to assume these are all Delta?

ETA: I note they say it's too soon to take account of the potential impact, from which I assume not?

Just to update you on the broader question, this got mentioned in latest UKHSA document, but the actual values mentioned are well out of date by now so not a useful current guide.

Omicron has also been detected in the wastewater in 5 samples collected between 26 and 28 November from 4 of the 477 sewage treatment works and sewerage network sites

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf

I havent yet had time to check the Scottish report that should have come out today.

 

[elbows]

Just came to say that 58,194 new coronavirus cases sounded rather worrisome to me.

Its the continuation of a trend of rising cases that has been visible for a while. Growth has been especially notable in the South East and London but affects all regions with the possible exception of the North East & Yorkshire so far.

Omicron variant concerns go far beyond the rises seen already, and its unclear to what extent the increases seen so far are driven by Omicron rather than an uptick in Delta. However with Omicron projected to become dominant in the coming days, and its ridiculously short doubling times and high attack rates, what I've just said about that is increasingly out of date.

 

[Spandex]

So Mikey G, Minister for Snorting Cocaine and Levelling Up, comes out of the COBRA meeting he's been chairing, because the PM is on paternity leave/hiding again, and says he's been shown "very challenging new information" on Omicron.

Do we think this is the very challenging new information that's been in the news today: vaccines less effective, 30% of Covid cases in London are Omicron, the health service could be swamped by mid-January? Or do we think there's new very challenging new information that means things might be even worse?

 

[pesh]

And another one gone. This time a concert that was due to loadin in less than 2 hours time.

we loaded half a ton of baggage onto a flight on Wednesday night only for the gigs to be cancelled seconds after getting the carnet stamped, we then hid in the lounge getting pissed till they'd thrown it all back off again.

 

[elbows]

Just to update you on the broader question, this got mentioned in latest UKHSA document, but the actual values mentioned are well out of date by now so not a useful current guide.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf

I havent yet had time to check the Scottish report that should have come out today.

Also on that note and from the same document, it sounds like they are going to use some sewage treatment works to fill in some of the variant surveillance gaps that arise from a lack of S gene dropout surveillance in some areas.

Wastewater samples will continue to be sequenced and results reported to public health teams. Additional 71 STW have been identified to increase regional population coverage and to supplement TaqPath Laboratory coverage and are in the process of being bought online.

 

[elbows]

So Mikey G, Minister for Snorting Cocaine and Levelling Up, comes out of the COBRA meeting he's been chairing, because the PM is on paternity leave/hiding again, and says he's been shown "very challenging new information" on Omicron.

Do we think this is the very challenging new information that's been in the news today: vaccines less effective, 30% of Covid cases in London are Omicron, the health service could be swamped by mid-January? Or do we think there's new very challenging new information that means things might be even worse?

Well there was some other data as well today, such as estimates for attack rates. That stuff came up in the Scottish briefing earlier. And I quoted some of it that came out in a UKHSA report earlier Omicron news

 

[Supine]

Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals

Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS

www.theguardian.com

 

[brogdale]

Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals

Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS

www.theguardian.com

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas....

















2020

 

[elbows]

Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals

Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS

www.theguardian.com

Sounds about right. If reality ends up broadly in line with the various estimates behind those figures, then to keep hospitalisations within the limits I'd prefer they should have done the stringent stuff this week.

 

[Cloo]

We have an offsite work thing planned for 1 and 2 March that I was about to start booking venues for. I’m now wondering if I should avoid doing that. No point having the admin headache only to then have another admin headache unbooking it.

I think bets may be off for anything before Easter now, especially if Christmas goes ahead.

I see government is denying the existence of Plan C, which means plan C exists and they're trying not to use it until January 3rd.

 

[Artaxerxes]

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas....

















2020

Customs rules change again on 1st January as well so that's going to add to the fun

 

[Sasaferrato]

I pay some attention to this sort of thing too, people should read between the lines when there are mixed messages and a difference between what is said and what is done:



5h ago 10:07

Other Guardian entries on their live updates page today include:







I'll not accept being painted as a weird freak for not buying into 'keep calm and carry on' utter bullshit. And thats why I question whether some people actually learnt the key lessons from the earlier part of the pandemic. I want us to dodge some bullets, and to err on the side of imagining those bullets are real rather than believing they are excessive concerns that are out of step with reality. I dont want to have to go all round the loop again via the right things not being done and us ending up with months of severe restrictions as a result.

I would consider you a weird freak if you did buy into the 'carry on' bullshit.

Until we see how Omicron pans out, treat it as if it is Ebola.

 

[2hats]

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas....

Talking of which (figure 11, UKHSA TB31)...

(also assumes unbiased starting estimates from SGTF and no change in population behaviours).

Might be a motive for "urgent action"/"stringent" measures.

 

[HAL9000]

Talking of which (figure 11, UKHSA TB31)...

(also assumes unbiased starting estimates from SGTF and no change in population behaviours).

Might be a motive for "urgent action"/"stringent" measures.

The scale on the left is logarithmic, so not obvious at a quick glance how bad it is.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Decided the other day not to go to Scotland for Christmas. Feels like the right thing to do though I would've really liked to see my family.

Not sure it will be any better in England. It's just Nicola seems 3 weeks ahead of taking this seriously compared to the Tories down south.

 

[Supine]

The scale on the left is logarithmic, so not obvious at a quick glance how bad it is.

Quick tip. A straight line on a log scale is worth worrying about.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Here's my totally arbitrary prediction: Christmas goes ahead as normal. Everything after that screams to lockdown. This useless bunch of ghouls in office do a half measure recommending or pleading with the public to do the right thing over the rest of the holidays. Then Jan 3rd the binbag of luncheon meat we have as PM will go on telly to say alas and if the public had followed the guidelines and we must regrettably lock down for a limited period meaning Easter

 

[platinumsage]

Talking of which (figure 11, UKHSA TB31)...

(also assumes unbiased starting estimates from SGTF and no change in population behaviours).

Might be a motive for "urgent action"/"stringent" measures.

It's a joke, surely. I remember some dufus on Wikipedia making graphs in February 2020 predicting that with the doubling rate then in China, 7 billion people would be infected by May.