Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[weepiper]

Scotland relaxing a bit more next week but not looking at moving beyond level 0 until the 9th of August at the earliest so still some number limits on venues, hospitality has to close at midnight etc. And mandatory legally backed measures such as face masks will remain 'for some time'.

Covid in Scotland: Restrictions to ease but face masks remain

Nicola Sturgeon says the whole of Scotland will move to a "modified" level zero from 19 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Cheers for the info weepiper, I havent had time to look into that announcement yet. Perhaps they should have renamed it level zero point five.

 

[elbows]

More and more businesses and people in the media are figuring out that voluntary doesnt necessarily mean voluntary. And certainly when documents were released just over a week ago, it was clear from some of the language that actually yes, local public health teams still have various forms of brake available that will in practice likely mean all sorts of venues having to close under certain situations, on a venue by venue basis.

Mr Kill said that although the policy was not mandatory at present, it could turn out that venues were "in the hands of local public health directors" who could force them to comply.

Tristan Moffat, operations director of the Piano Works, which has two London venues, said: "It's like we've been given a rope to hang ourselves with.

"If it all goes wrong, we'll be closed down again and the buck will be passed back to the operators."

Covid passes for nightclubs branded unworkable

The government is passing the buck by not making the policy mandatory, say nightclub operators.

www.bbc.co.uk

Even before this change, in practice a quick glance at my local news shows that plenty of pubs, social clubs, sports bars etc have had to close for periods up to 10 days recently, either due to outbreaks which caused local public health teams to recommend closure, or because self-isolation rules made it impossible to get enough staff to work.

This stuff is one of the few big brakes we still have left in the system, and it isnt really clear to me whether the impact of such things is properly baked into all the modelling of this wave.

 

[wayward bob]

Scotland relaxing a bit more next week but not looking at moving beyond level 0 until the 9th of August at the earliest so still some number limits on venues, hospitality has to close at midnight etc. And mandatory legally backed measures such as face masks will remain 'for some time'.

Covid in Scotland: Restrictions to ease but face masks remain

Nicola Sturgeon says the whole of Scotland will move to a "modified" level zero from 19 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

in the light of this does anyone think there's any chance of drakeford holding out to retain measures in wales in any meaningful sense? his next announcement is tomorrow and i'm dreading it tbh.

 

[elbows]

On some levels the four nations stuff is just political theatre and the same approach is broadly agreed and followed across all four nations, with small differences in timing, detail, rhetoric and emphasis. Partly because the UK government still holds many of the purse strings etc.

 

[weepiper]

GO ON NICOLA PUT THE BOOT INTO HIM

 

[Cid]

If he'd said proof of vaccination OR a totally useless dead easy to fake negative test result then what would have happened idk. Interesting.
Maybe i'm wrong and things like this could convince a lot of people to book jabs who otherwise won't.

France reports rush for vaccines after Macron tightens Covid rules

More than 20,000 people a minute book jabs after cafes, malls and trains ruled out of bounds for the unvaccinated

www.theguardian.com

eta oh its the same thing, he said vaccination OR a negative test result. Do they have the sort of fairly useless lateral flow tests as we have?

I think the age-correlated low vaccine uptake at least is just laziness/disconnect. Certainly what I see with my friends. No unwillingness as such, just working, not had to go the GP in years etc. That kind of measure would have them signing up in an instant. And the test option may be a bit of a shit addition, but I think a lot of people are still going to favour 'getting the vaccine out of the way', rather than having to repeatedly take/fake tests.

 

[Sue]

GO ON NICOLA PUT THE BOOT INTO HIM

Too right. The latest stuff in England is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[elbows]

Yeah her opportunities to attack are somewhat limited by other polcy similarities but the masks stuff is a clear and obvious one where the UK government have made fools of themselves, and where the other administrations can make use of this to demonstrate their pandemic sanity credentials.

Meanwhile:

Trusts to remind public they must wear masks after 19 July

Multiple trusts are planning to tell the public they must comply with current covid infection control measures, such as mask wearing, beyond 19 July when they visit NHS premises, HSJ can reveal.

www.hsj.co.uk

Multiple trusts are planning to tell the public they must comply with current covid infection control measures, such as mask wearing, beyond 19 July when they visit NHS premises, HSJ can reveal.

Numerous trust chiefs told HSJ they will insist public visitors continue to wear masks within their hospitals. This is despite Boris Johnson confirming yesterday mask-wearing will be advisory in crowded and enclosed spaces, rather than a legal requirement, from Monday.

 

[elbows]

Oh and the HSJ are also reporting the following, although I cannot read the full article at the moment. Its not unexpected since the issue has been in the news recently, although it does carry some risk on the nosocomial spread front.

Trusts in the North East region have told staff identified as close contacts of positive covid-19 cases they can continue working if they take daily tests.

I believe this comes after PHE clarified to trusts that they could make their own decisions about this stuff.

Hospitals allowing staff to avoid self-isolation instructions from app

Trusts in the North East region have told staff identified as close contacts of positive covid-19 cases they can continue working if they take daily tests.

www.hsj.co.uk

 

[Spandex]

There is also a hint in there that they've either been asked to comment on the idea of reducing the publics access to certain forms of data, or are concerned the government might try that.

Also, keep an eye on how data is recorded.

Now that we need to keep an eye on hospitalisation figures instead of case numbers to have an idea of how bad things are getting, the CRG are naturally calling for how they are recorded to be looked at.

Yesterday in Parliament there was this exchange:

Mark Harper, the chair of the Covid Recovery Group, which represents lockdown-sceptic Tories, says hospital admission data is misleading because it included people testing positive for Covid, even if that is not why they were admitted to hospital. Policy should not be determined by “dodgy data”, he says.

Javid says Harper is making a “very good point”. He says he has asked for advice on whether the way the data is collected can change.

While Harper would claim to purely be interested in the accuracy of the hospitalisation figures, his suggested change would make future figures lower and harder to compare with previous waves.

Odd bunch the CRG. Obviously right-wing capitalist libertarians, their main platform seems to be ensuring Covid to kills as many of their constituents as possible. Strange way to go about re-election: vote for me, I tried to kill you. Has that campaign message been tried before? Who knows though, in this crazy mixed up world it might just work.

 

[Thora]

Yeah her opportunities to attack are somewhat limited by other polcy similarities but the masks stuff is a clear and obvious one where the UK government have made fools of themselves, and where the other administrations can make use of this to demonstrate their pandemic sanity credentials.

Meanwhile:

Trusts to remind public they must wear masks after 19 July

Multiple trusts are planning to tell the public they must comply with current covid infection control measures, such as mask wearing, beyond 19 July when they visit NHS premises, HSJ can reveal.

www.hsj.co.uk

My GP surgery (and hairdresser!) has already text to say nothing will change in their procedures on the 19th, masks still necessary etc.

 

[sojourner]

My GP surgery (and hairdresser!) has already text to say nothing will change in their procedures on the 19th, masks still necessary etc.

I've sent out a group email to all the tenants in the business centre I manage, saying nothing is changing.

 

[elbows]

Also, keep an eye on how data is recorded.

Now that we need to keep an eye on hospitalisation figures instead of case numbers to have an idea of how bad things are getting, the CRG are naturally calling for how they are recorded to be looked at.

Yesterday in Parliament there was this exchange:

Mark Harper, the chair of the Covid Recovery Group, which represents lockdown-sceptic Tories, says hospital admission data is misleading because it included people testing positive for Covid, even if that is not why they were admitted to hospital. Policy should not be determined by “dodgy data”, he says.

Javid says Harper is making a “very good point”. He says he has asked for advice on whether the way the data is collected can change.

While Harper would claim to purely be interested in the accuracy of the hospitalisation figures, his suggested change would make future figures lower and harder to compare with previous waves.

Odd bunch the CRG. Obviously right-wing capitalist libertarians, their main platform seems to be ensuring Covid to kills as many of their constituents as possible. Strange way to go about re-election: vote for me, I tried to kill you. Has that campaign message been tried before? Who knows though, in this crazy mixed up world it might just work.

And its important to know that the NHS were told weeks ago to start recording the admissions that were actually due to Covid rather than the covid positive being coincidental.

So far that stuff is being recorded as 'management data', we dont get to see it publicly and there has been no change to the nature of the figures we do get to see publicly.

I wouldnt actually mind if they published both, it would be useful and it wouldnt spoil our ability to compare the past and the future. But ever since this was first reported the suspicion is there that they might look to replace one figure with the other publicly.

Up until a certain stage last year, Scotland also reported things like 'suspected cases' in hospital. And their numbers in hospital beds originally had no cut off point, but at some stage I think they changed it so that people who were hospitalised for a long time were no longer included in the figures, resulting in an sudden drop in numbers at one distinct moment last year.

 

[cupid_stunt]

For this wave, we have another record number of new cases reported today - 27,125 / 7-day average +74.2%

I posted that on 2nd July, about a week ago the 7-day average increase was still around+50%, but has continued to drop, today it's reported as +26.6%, which is a little bit of positive news.

 

[elbows]

Just in case anyone is interested in the etail of what I was going on about in regards some of Scotlands hospital data, note the repeated references to 28 days in this sort of text which I have taken from their 'trends in daily Covid-19 data' spreadsheet from Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot

This isnt a recent change but I dont think we've talked about it before. At least they are also recording figures for people in ICU beyond the 28 day cutoff.

1. This new Table 2 has replaced the previous table on number of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital and ICU, which included people (in larger NHS Boards) who had previously tested positive for COVID-19 but are now in hospital for another reason, or had hospital onset COVID-19 and remain in hospital. The Table 2 presented in previous versions of this daily data update is now provided in an archived worksheet in this excel file. Collection of the data under this definition was stopped after 15 September 2020.

2. This new measure focuses on hospital in-patients with a more recent positive COVID-19 test. This is defined as patients who first tested positive in hospital or in the 14 days before admission. Patients are also no longer included after 28 days in hospital (or 28 days after first testing positive if this is after admission). Further background on this change is provided in this blog Improving completeness of data on protected characteristics.

3. The new indicator (iii) focuses on ICU patients with a recent positive COVID-19 test who have remained in ICU for longer than 28 days. The total number of COVID-19 ICU patients in Scotland can be obtained by summing indicators (i) and (iii) on any given date. Collections of data under this definition began on 20 January 2021.

4. The data in Table 2 shows a snapshot of:

(i) the total number of people in ICUs or combined ICU/ HDU across Scotland with recently confirmed COVID-19 (not the number of people admitted to ICU each day), with a length of stay of 28 days or less, as at 8am the previous day.

(ii) the total number of people in hospital across Scotland with recently confirmed COVID-19 (not the number of people admitted to hospital each day), with a length of stay of 28 days or less, as at 8am the previous day. This figure includes those in ICU. It does not include people with COVID-19 symptoms who have not yet tested positive. Only hospital inpatients are included, not those who may be in the Emergency Department. Patients in acute hospitals, and long stay community hospitals including mental health are included.

(iii) the total number of people in ICUs or combined ICU/HDU across Scotland with recently confirmed COVID-19 (not the number of people admitted to ICU each day), with a length of stay of more than 28 days, as at 8am the previous day.

Oh and just to complete my waffling on, this is the sudden drop in figures in the people in hospital graph for Scotland that happened last year, presumably as a result of one of these changes.

 

[elbows]

I posted that on 2nd July, about a week ago the 7-day average increase was still around+50%, but has continued to drop, today it's reported as +26.6%, which is a little bit of positive news.

I note that 50 deaths within 28 days of a positive test were reported for the UK today, although you know me, I prefer to focus on data by date of death rather than date of reporting. And so far numbers have been below the threshold where I feel the need to start posting horrible death graphs here all the time.

 

[elbows]

The North Easts case figures are at an interesting stage where they might soon start to show signs of peaking in the data, but where I wont be sure if that reflects a real peak or just aspects of the testing regime, impending school holidays etc. And I've probably made this point too soon.

Certainly the North East is at the stage where if we divide cases into the above and below 60 years of age, like one of the graphs on the dashboard does, we could roughly say that cases in those below 60 are twice those seen in previous peaks, and for those over 60 its about half that seen in previous peaks. Even half is still a lot more than we'd like to see in people that age. And I am being a bit sloppy with my descriptions of half and double.

 

[elbows]

Scotland relaxing a bit more next week but not looking at moving beyond level 0 until the 9th of August at the earliest so still some number limits on venues, hospitality has to close at midnight etc. And mandatory legally backed measures such as face masks will remain 'for some time'.

Covid in Scotland: Restrictions to ease but face masks remain

Nicola Sturgeon says the whole of Scotland will move to a "modified" level zero from 19 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

I've now read Sturgeons statement. Its the expected performance - goes out of her way to find some areas where saying the right thing helps. eg speaking of people who were shielding, the unknowns about long covid. A few slightly better policies, eg masks and social distancing. But elsewhere in the statement plenty of signs of the areas where the approach is very similar across the UK, eg future desire to change the self-isolation rules.

I'll just focus on the good bits with these quotes:

It is important to stress that measures like the continued wearing of face coverings are important, not just to give added protection to the population as a whole, but also to give protection and assurance to those amongst us who are particularly vulnerable and who previously had to shield.

Lifting all restrictions and mitigations right now would put all of us at greater risk - but in particular it would make it much more difficult for the most clinically vulnerable to go about their normal lives. It would risk the imposition of shielding by default and, in my view, that is not something we should do.

But at the moment, the pressure on the NHS is of concern.

First and foremost, it means a significant number of people suffering illness. It also means more pressure on a workforce that has already given so much.

And it holds back NHS recovery. Every hospital bed occupied by a Covid patient is one less bed available to tackle the backlog of non Covid care.

Another reason to take the current level of infection seriously is the risk of long Covid.

Many people, including young people, who get the virus but never need hospital care will still suffer long Covid.

This is a condition that experts still don’t yet fully understand - but we do know that it is causing misery for many.

Indeed, it is one of the main reasons that, in my view, we cannot be complacent about young people getting this virus.

To say that it just doesn’t matter - when we don’t yet fully understand what the long term consequences might be for some young people - would risk treating them as an experiment and it won't surprise anyone to hear that i don't think we should do that.

In terms of the current situation in Scotland, whether they have peaked etc:

Also encouraging is that case numbers – which were rising sharply two weeks ago – now appear to have levelled off. In fact, they have fallen in recent days.

And not all cases are confirmed by testing. So although the current fall is encouraging, we continue to monitor all data - including, for example, on wastewater sampling – to get the fullest possible picture.

In January more than 10% of people who tested positive for Covid had to go to hospital. That is now around 3%. It is also the case that people admitted to hospital with Covid are being discharged more quickly.

Another area where Sturgeon is very different to Johnson is that she is happy to use international situation and WHO comments to underline various points:

That sense of caution is reinforced by looking at the international situation and listening to the WHO.

Several countries across Europe – for example Portugal and Spain – are now dealing with very sharp rises in cases. Holland has just reintroduced restrictions that were lifted at the end of June.

Israel has also seen a significant rise in cases as a result of Delta – despite its very high level of vaccination.

And some countries which did well in suppressing the virus last year – for example in the Asia and Pacific region - are now seeing cases rise. Japan, for example, has decided not to allow spectators at the Olympics.

There is no doubt that Delta has become, unfortunately, something of a game-changer – even for countries on course to achieving full vaccine protection.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's statement – 13 July 2021

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on Tuesday, 13 July 2021.

www.gov.scot

 

[elbows]

Oh and one problem with some of her rhetoric is that she says stuff like 'we cannot be complacent about young people getting the virus' and yet its quite clear that when case numbers rose to obscene levels, they werent going to slam on any brakes to prevent a big chunk of those infections.

So better lip service to reality and what the right thing to do should be, but not matched by policy.

 

[belboid]

government is "encouraging" businesses to require and check vaccine certification.
but still no news on when those of us who got our jabs in clinical trials will have that shown in the app. they seem to have not mentioned it entirely since saying they were looking into it months ago.

I'll end up dropping out the trial (for follow up blood tests monitoring) and go for an unnecessary second set of NHS jabs if the alternative is being housebound.

I did the Oxford trial and it is now showing on the app. There as a link to download a pdf for Trial Events and another for Travel. Both say they are only valid up to August 12th (how glorious).

E2a: mrsb’s app is showing the same thing now too, after getting a ‘normal’ jab

 

[Wilf]

I've sent out a group email to all the tenants in the business centre I manage, saying nothing is changing.

By contrast I've just had an email from my employer, a university, welcoming the return to 'normal operations'. They are hedging their bets about the teaching, planning for a 'hybrid model' of online lectures but normal (large) seminars. There's also some horsewank about 'agile working', which amounts to doing your marking and preparation at home, but otherwise being in. In many ways that puts teaching staff in a much better position than other groups of workers with regard to risk. Also, I'm not griping for myself as I'm 60 and could go on the sick and take my pension if teaching without masks and social distancing becomes too stressful (I have a couple of health issues). It's more that universities are lining up to become major transmission centres again as students move into halls in a couple of months and then into 'normal' classrooms. Partying like it's 2020...

 

[elbows]

Sturgeon may also be used as a partial guide when people wonder to themselves how much better we could have been expected to do in this pandemic if we'd had a different PM/government/party in power.

Better rhetoric. Different emphasis. A different style of lying, better in some ways and worse in others. Potentially better timing (quite hard to have worse timing that Johnson). A little bit of room for better policy, but not to the extent of a sea change seeming highly plausible.

 

[elbows]

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

Oh. My daughter has to self isolate due to a case at school in her year.
Oddly they are saying 10 days, but are backdating it so that it's '10 days from possible contact' which means only 5 days.

This is the first time this has happened at the school as far as I am aware. What happens with self isolation after 'freedom day'? I'm honestly seeing more friends with it on facebook than ever before, and now this. Why are they ending restrictions?

 

[elbows]

This is the first time this has happened at the school as far as I am aware. What happens with self isolation after 'freedom day'?

They were planning to fuck around with various aspects of self-isolation come freedom day. In many ways they've not been able to proceed on schedule, Delta has spoilt some of the equations, so they have delayed these changes. They went ahead and announced them but not with an immediate start date. They probably hope cases peak around the same time as the changes happen, or that school holidays have at least lowered R by then.

I forget exactly when the version of the changes that apply to kids kick in, whether its the 19th or not till mid August, but in practical terms its next term when these differences will be felt.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

They were planning to fuck around with various aspects of self-isolation come freedom day. In many ways they've not been able to proceed on schedule, Delta has spoilt some of the equations, so they have delayed these changes. They went ahead and announced them but not with an immediate start date. They probably hope cases peak around the same time as the changes happen, or that school holidays have at least lowered R by then.

I forget exactly when the version of the changes that apply to kids kick in, whether its the 19th or not till mid August, but in practical terms its next term when these differences will be felt.

The letter I previously had from school was that nothing will change until next term when they say restrictions will be lifted, and the government say the school can go back to normal (though the school says it will be a bit more cautious than that).

 

[elbows]

Why are they ending restrictions?

A collection of shitty politics and economics brought it about. Combined with making plans on this front long ago, and then trying to resist reality when Delta came along to piss on their freedom parade.

So right now we are operating with a modified version of the original opening up plan - some things delayed a bit but then allowed to proceed anyway. A change of tone. Some panic due to the uncertainties about how big this wave will be.

They always planned to exit with a wave, its just a question of how big that wave is. And since this Delta variant is highly transmissive, in terms of number of infections the numbers are very high already. Ad authorities calculations can survive a high number of infections this time around because the ratio of cases to hospitalisations has been changed by vaccination.

Cold establishment calculations made even worse by the high degree of uncertainty. It is still not possible for me to say whether the authorities will roadly get away with this approach or quite how much it will blow up in their face. I can find signs pointing in both directions, and I certainly dont rule out them getting away with it, if for example Scotlands numbers are a genuine sign of a peak there and the various regions of England end up going a similar way with a similar peak point. Even 'getting away with it' in terms of politics still means a very messy and unpleasant for those who catch it and those that have to treat the sick, and everyone affected by disruption.

 

[elbows]

The letter I previously had from school was that nothing will change until next term when they say restrictions will be lifted, and the government say the school can go back to normal (though the school says it will be a bit more cautious than that).

The government have been lying when they've evoked the idea of 'normal'. The way things look now in many settings including education, there will still be a local public health response to outbreaks. They are moving the bar for when disruption happens, the odd case here and there wont trigger the same sort of isolation and disruption, but some other situations will. And if the policy leads to many more infections then moving the bar wont necessarily reduce disruption, only postpone it slightly.

I dont want to predict quite what next term will look like until we see more of the size and timing of the current wave.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

Thank you elbows for a most helpful and level response.