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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

how are you going to assess this?

How are you going to assess this ever-obscured strategy?

We can only work off the actions and words available to us. This year has been one of astonishing change, of deep crisis in rights, in labour, in culture. And yet Starmer's Labour has been largely inactive. There is no strategy that justifies that.
 
There is a lag between infections and deaths. I was looking for how long this was and I came across this paper Data animation shows time lag between COVID-19 cases and deaths

They say it's 2-8 weeks, we are at the beginning of the fall in cases from two weeks ago. I really hope this flows through into the next two weeks.

They created a somewhat hard to read visualisation showing the lag. Too busy imo.

Positive test numbers have been falling for a long time. Daily hospital admissions have come down. Mechanical ventilation numbers also seem to have peaked, and this measure tends to track along with number of deaths pretty well. This and other data points to the peak in deaths in this wave already having happened, but since there are delays between deaths and reporting of deaths, it takes a while for this to show up. I would hope that when the data comes in, the number of deaths per day will be shown to have dropped in the last week or so of January.

In terms of watching the data nervously, my main concern right now is how large the drop in admissions and deaths will be. Admissions for example are well down from the peak, but are still at very high levels. Not high enough to maintain the number of people with Covid-19 in hospital, thankfully those are falling too, but still very high. And I hope people are able to recalibrate their sense of what counts as bad numbers, since even terribly high numbers are rather dwarfed by the peak we had.

I dont have UK admissions/diagnoses figures to hand right now but here is the English Covid-19 hospital admissions/diagnoses using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

Screenshot 2021-01-31 at 12.21.38.png

In the second wave the tracking between patients in mechanical ventilator beds and deaths within 28 days of a positive test has been quite strong, although I dont necessarily expect that to continue during the downwards phase of things. In the following graph I multiplied the deaths by 3 to demonstrate how closely these two things have been tracking. The red line showing deaths by actually date of death is incomplete because of the time it takes for this data to come in, so thats why that line plummets in a manner that does not reflect how and when the deaths will actually fall, we just have to wait to see what the final numbers for the peak turn out to be.

Screenshot 2021-01-31 at 12.23.47.png
 
So people should vote for a party that is actively attacking them and acting against their interests because it currently is not in power.
You're really selling this strategy.
I read it as how come the voting intention percentages are so high for any of the parties, rather than surprise at blue being ahead of very slightly reddish blue.
 
There's also going to be people that caught it just before having their dose of course, or shortly after before it gives them any protection.
Yep. At one level, given that millions of people have and will be getting the vaccine, we have the basis for working out all kinds of things (which ones work best, for which age groups; which lead to the least onward transmission; length of protection; protection from first dose only and the rest). But by definition it will be a while before those effects are known. I'm not even sure what kind of research/analysis is in place to do those assessments, though I'm sure it is (even with the clowns we have in power). Currently, it's a case of get as many vaccines out there, but all the questions about vaccine performance will be crucial as to what happens after that (from say September on). All this stuff about vaccine performance and maybe the need to modify vaccines will be international issues of course.

Edit: I see more knowledgeable people than me are discussing this on the vaccines thread.
People who know stuff. :oldthumbsup:
 
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For all their shitness the idea that the Tories actively want to kill people off is proper tinfoil hat stuff.
They clearly benefit the worse the situation becomes. I don't think disaster capitalism is a conspiracy theory really, do you?

It's no different to invading Iraq for oil really is it?

The old-fashioned Tories wouldn't go this far, the new ones.... Well.
 
Well they were certainly into 'herd immunity' in the early stages knowing this could lead to half a million deaths & only changed their mind with the outcry from home & abroad.
Fwiw, I don't believe that those phrases that emerged early on added up to an active belief that so many deaths would be 'acceptable'. However, when authoritative histories are written, I suspect we'll see that some truly crazy ideas were flying round government in those days. For a brief moment, the Cummings-esque sociopaths were in charge of the asylum, now we've gone back to common or garden neoliberal incompetents running the place.
 
Tell that to the relatives of the disabled and poor killed over the last decade.

Dare you to.
If you are saying that things like disability benefit reassessments have been done by a government that doesn't care about the casualties, I'm with you. I'd say that's murderous. However the intention isn't to kill. It's to save money and keep us in line, accumulation and reproduction. Maybe we are just on semantics here, but actual death isn't a direct goal of policy.
 
If you are saying that things like disability benefit reassessments have been done by a government that doesn't care about the casualties, I'm with you. I'd say that's murderous. However the intention isn't to kill. It's to save money and keep us in line, accumulation and reproduction. Maybe we are just on semantics here, but actual death isn't a direct goal of policy.
Nobody said it was.
 
I think the lengthy stays in hospital, ICUs, shutting down parts of the econoy furlough etc might just wipe out any such perceived savings on that score...
Agreed the cost has been massive but a few have made shed loads of cash out of it.

ETA the costs will be met by the taxpayer not the few who have been awarded dodgy contracts.
 
Sick of the Tory incompetence narrative. They know exactly what they're doing.
They do things that cost lives, tens of thousands of lives this last year, but mass murder isn't the goal. It's an effect.

IMO both true. The aim of the game is wealth & ideally also continuing power for them, their pals and their children. The deaths are collateral damage, about which they evidently & clearly do not care. The only thing saving them from huge popular anger IMO is their incompetence narrative. We did our best it was so shitty for us boo hoo and it might even win them the next election so it's not to be underestimated as a strategy.
 
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