Bicycle Racing 2012

[The Boy]

I have absolutely no time for UK Postal. I don't care how many stage races or GTs they win, they are deathly dull. I mean, at least Cuddles used to wheelsuck his opponents rather than his own teammates. And they look increasingly suspect, but that could just be my cynical streak.

Anyway, too early for predictions given that Tour de Suisse has just started? Regardless, i reckon Sagan has the Points (NOT sprinters) Jersey. Cav to do drop out after a week and focus on Olympics.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

It looks like Andy Schleck is out of the Tour, with a broken pelvis. I'm beginning to think that a malevolent God is actively trying to make this year's Tour the dullest in recent memory.

I don't believe that Schleck was one of the top couple of contenders, because the parcours is so slanted in favour of time triallists and against specialist climbers, but he is one of only a very small number of climbers who are good enough to smash up Sky's mountain train of boredom. And he would have had to attack to make up for time lost in the TTs. Now with no Contador and no Schleck, pretty much all of the big contenders are diesel climbers who for the most part will be happy enough sitting there behind Sky's steady pace.

 

[The Boy]

Sammy Sanchez ftw.

In other news, Peter Sagan *didn't* win today.

edit: and Nibbles to smash on the descents....

Edit also: Vuelta will be interesting - Contador v Schleck.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

Sammy Sanchez ftw.

He might be the most gifted climber there. On current trends he'll probably get run over by a cement truck the day before the Tour starts.

 

[The Boy]

He might be the most gifted climber there. On current trends he'll probably get run over by a cement truck the day before the Tour starts.

He did crash quite badly in Dauphine too, actually. Although I think he should be fine.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

USADA have only gone and charged Lance.

 

[butchersapron]

His statement.

 

[Dan U]

Blimey. Those cats are back amongst the pigeons

 

[Nigel Irritable]

I had assumed he was out of the woods after the Grand Jury went away.

The USADA statement makes reference to "more than ten" cyclists telling them that Lance doped, presumably team mates. Armstrong's lawyer talking to the Washington Post and Armstrong's own statement more obliquely make reference to the fact that USADA haven't charged these people, who, we can only assume, admitted to doping themselves. Landis and Hamilton, the two team mates who have been most vocal in public, have actually been done for doping themselves. It will be interesting to see who the rest of the "more than ten" are and how many are still either cycling or in management. (My money is on some of the "more than ten" being people now associated with Garmin).

It's worth noting that the people USADA seem to be making allegations against are Armstrong, Bruyneel (still the boss of Radioshack-Nissan-Trek), Michele Ferrari and two other doctors (I haven't seen the other two named yet). The allegations are about a thirteen year long conspiracy, spanning four teams. Those four teams will have had a lot of other riders on them beyond Armstrong and the "more than ten". I'll be interested to see what, if anything, is said about them.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

USADA's full fifteen page letter:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/armstrongcharging0613.pdf

Also apparently there are two team officials, not just Bruyneel, involved.

 

[Sigmund Fraud]

Yes Vaughters and Andreu will finger ...but if anonymity and immunity were promised we may never know. Armstrong has brought tens of libel suits about but dropped them all at a later date. Its pathetic that nobody not previously discredited has had the balls to point the finger, omerta rules I suppose. Brunyeel and Ferrari involved in systematic doping? In more news bearshit found in woods and pope confesses he is not a Rangers fan.

Yatesy has been at Armstrong's side for 15 odd years...could he be accused?

 

[The Boy]

it's a pearost but worth a read for those who missed it:

http://nyvelocity.com/content/interviews/2009/michael-ashenden

As an aside, wasn't Bruyneel in some sort of bother when he went over for the ToC? Seem to remember something about him being at Giro unexpectedly.

eta: I know the world and its brother will be trying to figure out who has testified, but Horner was left out of RSNT team recently. And has a few dodgy performances of his own...

 

[The Boy]

Radioshack team doctor among those charged?

 

[Nigel Irritable]

Radioshack team doctor among those charged?

Dr Pedro Celaya, currently the RSNT doctor is one of the people allegations are made against. The other doctors are the famous Dr Michele Ferrari and Dr Luis Garcia del Moral. Last year, Garmin fired a directeur sportif for referring a rider to del Moral.

 

[Ponyutd]

Well. Put plain and simple....did he or didn't he?

 

[The Boy]

Dr Pedro Celaya, currently the RSNT doctor is one of the people allegations are made against. The other doctors are the famous Dr Michele Ferrari and Dr Luis Garcia del Moral. Last year, Garmin fired a directeur sportif for referring a rider to del Moral.

Cheers. Was late and wasn't sure if I was reading things right.

Eta conspiracy theory: Andy keeping his down for a bit then?

 

[Sigmund Fraud]

Well. Put plain and simple....did he or didn't he?

Of course he bloody did.

 

[The Boy]

“To all the cynics, I'm sorry for you, ... I'm sorry you can't believe in miracles. This is a great sporting event and hard work wins it.”

“If you consider my situation: a guy who comes back from arguably, you know, a death sentence, why would I then enter into a sport and dope myself up and risk my life again? That's crazy. I would never do that. No. No way.”

“I am happy with the way my career went and I am happy with the way it ended.”

“Without the illness I would never have been forced to re-evaluate my life and my career. I know if I had not had cancer, I would not have won the Tour de France.”

“If you dominate a world sport you will always have questions and doubts. Perhaps at the end of the day we were too successful. When you win the Tour once, twice, seven times, it is just too hard to believe.”

 

[The Boy]

Looks like Radioshack may not take the start at le tour.

http://www.rmcsport.fr/editorial/266964/radioshack-premiere-victime-de-l-affaire-armstrong/

 

[Sigmund Fraud]

probably having the good sense to fuck off before they are made to fuck off.

Good news for any French wildcartes out there.

 

[stavros]

According to this, Wiggo is favourite, with only Evans anywhere near him.

 

[The Boy]

According to this, Wiggo is favourite, with only Evans anywhere near him.

Given the TT kilometres, and the fact that number of attacking climbers who might actually take the race to the diesels is falling by the day, I would say that was about right. Oh, and the UK Postal train.

In other news looks like Voeckler won't be lining up for the start either.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

According to this, Wiggo is favourite, with only Evans anywhere near him.

I'd make him second favourite behind Evans, but beyond that it's hard to see too many others who can win on this parcours. Contador would absolutely murder him. Schleck wouldn't, but at least he'd smash up Sky's plan to bore us all to death on the climbs. In the absence of those two, Wiggins has a very good chance.

Menchov is a good bet at those odds though. He does after all have a vastly better record than Wiggins at Grand Tours and he's another Time Trialling diesel. Chances are he'll potter around completely anonymously and come seventh without anyone having even noted his presence. But if he is capable of getting back to his old form, 22-1 is unwisely generous for a guy who has won three GTs and finished second at the Tour.

 

[The Boy]

I might be the only person who didn't know this, but anyway. Trawling through various websites passing the time and I just stumbled on the fact that Amgem - sponsors of the Tour of California - are manufacturers of....EPO. The mind boggles.

 

[stavros]

Might Wiggins be compromised by the team's efforts as Cav's lead out train? From memory, the only time a team got les maillots jaune et vert was in the suspect T-Mobile days of Riis, Ullrich and Zabel (my memory only goes back to about halfway though the Big Mig era).

 

[The Boy]

Cav isn't going to finish*. Olympics is the focus.

*imo.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

Might Wiggins be compromised by the team's efforts as Cav's lead out train? From memory, the only time a team got les maillots jaune et vert was in the suspect T-Mobile days of Riis, Ullrich and Zabel (my memory only goes back to about halfway though the Big Mig era).

I don't think that they'll give Cavendish a proper lead out train of the HTC variety. If it was any other parcours and any other year, they would. Wiggins would get Froome and a minority share of the efforts of a couple of all rounders who would primarily be there for Cavendish, while the rest of the team would be full time Cavendish helpers.

But this is Sky's one and only shot at the Tour, unless the ASO have gone completely mad. Wiggins has no chance whatsoever of winning a Tour if (a) Contador is in it or (b) it doesn't have a stupidly TT biased course. And, fortunately for Sky, there's an Olympics taking place in Britain with a winnable route for Cavendish, so he can be fobbed off with an alternative priority this once. Even though the Olympics is in cycling terms not even close to being the most important one day race of the year, it would be a huge deal for Cavendish in terms of fame and money at home.

Cavendish will get some help at the Tour, and he and Wiggins will share an interest in keeping some sort of order on the flat stages. But I just don't think we're going to see them burn up the likes of Porte and Rogers for stage wins when this is their only shot at the big prize.

 

[The Boy]

I actually like what ASO *tried* to do with the parcours this year. It's just a shame that they fucked up the mountain stages quite so badly.

Then again, I really like the (sarcastic) suggestion Proudhomme made of having 20 medium mountain stages.

 

[Sigmund Fraud]

Menchov is a good bet at those odds though. He does after all have a vastly better record than Wiggins at Grand Tours and he's another Time Trialling diesel. Chances are he'll potter around completely anonymously and come seventh without anyone having even noted his presence. But if he is capable of getting back to his old form, 22-1 is unwisely generous for a guy who has won three GTs and finished second at the Tour.

Conspicuously absent since the introduction of bio passports and the new era of 'possible' riding. If he ever podiums for a GT again I will print this thread and eat it.

 

[The Boy]

Conspicuously absent since the introduction of bio passports and the new era of 'possible' riding. If he ever podiums for a GT again I will print this thread and eat it.

Bio-passport was introduced in 2008, no? Menchov finished 2nd in 2010 tour. Well, ok, he finished 3rd. And 2nd in Romandy. Plus a couple of top 10/5 finishes in GTs last year despite riding for a pro-conti team.