Nigel Irritable
Five, Ten, Fifteen Years
Bio-passport was introduced in 2008, no? Menchov finished 2nd in 2010 tour. Well, ok, he finished 3rd. And 2nd in Romandy. Plus a couple of top 10/5 finishes in GTs last year despite riding for a pro-conti team.
And one of those decent GT finishes last year came after losing silly time early on and team leadership switching to Cobo.
Don't get me wrong though, I really do think that he'll most likely get another anonymous top 10. He hasn't looked like a GT winner in quite a while and he's also getting on a bit. But he's one of only a few guys who are theoretically capable of winning on this parcours, absent Pereiro style luck. So I think 22-1 odds are generous.
I mean, put it this way: there's a better than 22-1 chance that each of Wiggins and Evans will manage to crash, lose silly time on some innocuous stage, have a colossally bad day or come down with food poisoning. A much better than 22-1 chance really, when you consider the past record of each. And who do you fancy to win then? Sanchez, Gesink, Van Den Broecke and possibly others are capable of winning it, but the parcours favours Menchov more.