Barclays/TFL cycle hire scheme in London

[George & Bill]

A study was done looking into the Parliament Square scheme to try to determine the pcu (passenger car unit - basically a measure of effect on the network) value for bicycles. Traditionally a value pof 0.25 is used as a global value, but obviously bikes take up different amounts of space depending where they are (e.g. they take up less space on the main body of a road than at a junction..) and how many bikes there are &c..

Using the results of the Parliament Square study (and comparing to traditional 0.25 PCU values), models were run for investigating the possibility of increasing cycle levels in London to meet Boris' vision of a 4-fold increase.

As most new cycle trips in Central London would be coming from public transport rather than from cars, the net effect would be increase demand on the network by about 10% (i.e 1 bus = 3 pcus. 1 bus carries 25 people. If 5 left the bus to become cyclists, then 5/25 * 3 pcus are removed, but 5 * 0.25 pcus are added).

The net effect is that speeds in central London would fall by around 6% in equilibrium.

A 6% fall in speeds in central london is equivalent to.... <starts computer....>

Unless there's more to it, this method of analysis is so crude as to be near-useless, because it only operates on the level of the simple amount of space taken up by any given vehicle, rather than looking at how vehicles of widely varying sizes differ in the way they move within the flow of traffic. That is to say, bikes don't move around in rigid car-shaped groups of four, but instead filter flexibly through (or are filtered past, depending on the speed of the traffic). A large part - probably the majority- of the time, they occupy spaces within the flow of traffic that would otherwise be empty, and at these times their effect on congestion is almost nil.

 

[citydreams]

The main part of a bike's pcu value is measured at intersections. after all, it is the capacity at junctions that determines the speed on the network.
You then have to model the probability of a bike moving to the front of a queue (which depends on the size of the queue, which depends on the probability of a bike being at the front of the queue....).

If you can come up with a better way of estimating the effects of additional bicycles on the road network, please do let me know..

 

[citydreams]

I've stated my bias. Notwithstanding that, I doubt we'll see PM jump 5%. The improvements in this between the vehicles of 20 years ago, even 10 years ago, and modern diesel vehicles are so great, 5% would be wiped out in a year, as older cars/buses/trucks are scrapped.

not in central london... where taxis are over 15 years old already.. and tfl can't afford any new buses.. and people are swapping their petrol cars for diesels that pollute more... nope.. actually pollution is going up..

 

[London_Calling]

Do you include the disincentive to drive - and even own a car - implicit in slower journey times?

 

[ddraig]

OYBike Confirmed for Cardiff

the one we're having in Cardiff is OY BiKE
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/8197153.stm

Cardiff's Sustainable Travel City Scheme will be phased in up to and including 2011 and will be added to over the next five years.

The bike scheme, which is due to be run in Cardiff as a commercial venture by OYBike, is similar to a successful project in Paris and is set to begin on 22 September.

Blocks of bikes will be stationed in and around the city centre and once a bike is finished with it can be returned to any of the available stands.

and the pedestrianisation of the main city centre street also confirmed

One of Cardiff's busiest streets will be fully pedestrianised by early 2010.

The traffic using St Mary Street has been restricted since August 2007 in a bid to cut pollution and noise.

The council is also introducing a bike scheme next month where the public can hire and ride bikes throughout the city centre, Cathays and Cardiff Bay.

 

[fredfelt]

The main part of a bike's pcu value is measured at intersections. after all, it is the capacity at junctions that determines the speed on the network.
You then have to model the probability of a bike moving to the front of a queue (which depends on the size of the queue, which depends on the probability of a bike being at the front of the queue....).

If you can come up with a better way of estimating the effects of additional bicycles on the road network, please do let me know..

A bike moving to the front of a queue if anything probably has a calming effect on traffic. I guess it could even help traffic flow better where there is heavy traffic.

Rather than traffic speeding ahead and then having to brake harder for the next junction traffic would maintain a more steady speed. Less stop start driving = less pollution.

Another effect of this could be to make it easier for traffic to emerge from side streets as there are gaps in the traffic.

I see the point about if people move from buses to bikes and can see how this could perhaps slow down traffic - but I'm not convinced. It's got to be really hard to develop a model to reflect all of these behaviours.

One thing I find for sure is that any city that I go to that makes a proper effort to minimise cars is always a much more pleasant place to be in.

Must say I did not realise that I was such a nerd to be thinking about stuff like this! At least I keep it contained in quiet moments at work.

 

[ddraig]

anyone here been on a OYBike?

thought the advertising would be on the stations, not the actual bikes

 

[citydreams]

Do you include the disincentive to drive - and even own a car - implicit in slower journey times?

yup... convergence of equilibrium between speed with respect to flow, and demand with respect to speed.

 

[citydreams]

A bike moving to the front of a queue if anything probably has a calming effect on traffic. I guess it could even help traffic flow better where there is heavy traffic.

ha haa.. you don't cycle in London do you..

The reason the parliament square study was so important was because it showed that cyclists could actually prevent cars from getting round.. as the traffic signal only have enough green time to let bikes through..!

Rather than traffic speeding ahead and then having to brake harder for the next junction traffic would maintain a more steady speed. Less stop start driving = less pollution.

no.. smoother traffic means more chances for cars to enter the flow of traffic, therefore increasing the number of cars on the network.

Another effect of this could be to make it easier for traffic to emerge from side streets as there are gaps in the traffic.

again, no.. bicycles tend to pull away from traffic lights faster than cars, and thus prevent anyone further down the road from turning.

It's got to be really hard to develop a model to reflect all of these behaviours.

all in a day's job

 

[London_Calling]

It's become a very interesting question . . . I take if TfL are on the leading edge of trying to understand these issues . . . quite a business opportunity in terms of around-the-world consultation . . .

I shall ponder the slower driving speed further . . .

 

[Oswaldtwistle]

not in central london... where taxis are over 15 years old already..

which brings us back to my point about cycle hire replacing taxis. A ten year rolling age limit for taxis would be a no brainer IMHO

and tfl can't afford any new buses..

Well if we weren't spending vast sums on Crossrail and HS1, we might be able to afford a decent bus service in this country. Yeah I know, different pots of money...

Anyway I thought London was having new buses to replace the bendies?

and people are swapping their petrol cars for diesels that pollute more...

This, however, I agree with. Not sure what the answer is, but it certainly isn't to blame cyclists for slowing the traffic down!

 

[citydreams]

which brings us back to my point about cycle hire replacing taxis. A ten year rolling age limit for taxis would be a no brainer IMHO

It's on the cards, but the PCO are resisting heavily (suprise, suprise). It won't come into effect till about 2014/5 anyway, as it would need to be introduced slowly.. But London needs to meet EU PM levels by 2011, and NOX by 2015.. The DfT are sympathetic, but aren't going to bail Boris out..

Anyway I thought London was having new buses to replace the bendies?

Already have... but you need 1.5+ buses for each bendy you replace so you end up polluting more..

What I mean is, there is no money left for additional buses on top of the existing spending plan e.g hybrid buses would solve a lot of the pollution problems, but they're now out of our price range.. but £140,000,000 on cycle hire, no problem!!

 

[handyman121]

Has anyone mentioned the fact that lots of people would probably like to cycle and own a bike but they don't have anywhere to keep it. Lot's of people live in flats, which might mean leaving it ouside or in the hallway, blocking up fire exits etc. To be able to hire a bike and then just leave it for someone else to worry about maintenance, pumping up the tyres, checking the lights is a great plus for thousands.

 

[Oswaldtwistle]

but £140,000,000 on cycle hire, no problem!!

Is that just for the cycle hire, or the whole shebag (superhighways, the lot)?


£140 mil is a lot of money, although stuff like crossrail is costing far, far more.

 

[Cobbles]

TfL have published details of the cycle hire scheme for London that they hope to introduce by 2010.

Tfl say "The scheme will allow you to pick up a cycle at a docking station, use it as you like, and then return it to any docking station.

Initially, cycles will be available in an area approximately equivalent to fare Zone 1 in central London, although the area may be enlarged and the number of docking stations and cycles increased in future."

And they promise initially
* 6,000 cycles
* 400 cycle stations
* 10,500 docking points (allowing approximately 1.7 per cycle should ensure users can return bicycles to the docking point of their choice)
* An area of 43km2

See http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tfl/roadusers/cycling/cycle-hire-scheme/ for further details

Why on earth would someone want to rent a self-propelled 2 wheeler that looks like something out of a 50's Ealing comedy when they can get into a nice dry taxi instead?

Do they float? - as far as I can see, their most useful function would be as canal landfill to allow the building of toll based high speed roads.

 

[teuchter]

Why on earth would someone want to rent a self-propelled 2 wheeler that looks like something out of a 50's Ealing comedy when they can get into a nice dry taxi instead?

The answer to this

reveals itself

to the enlightened

 

[ddraig]

Why on earth would someone want to rent a self-propelled 2 wheeler that looks like something out of a 50's Ealing comedy when they can get into a nice dry taxi instead?

Do they float? - as far as I can see, their most useful function would be as canal landfill to allow the building of toll based high speed roads.

come on cobbles TRY HARDER!

 

[Cobbles]

come on cobbles TRY HARDER!

OK:

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/vandalism-vexes-paris-bike-rental-system/

According to the BBC, Remi Pheulpin, JCDecaux’s director general, told Le Parisien that replacement and maintenance costs are “so high that a private business cannot handle it alone, especially as it’s a problem of public order. If we want the Velib setup to keep going, we’ll have to change the business model.”

Presumably to one where the Local Authority that gets stitched up has to fund the entire capital costs up front, as well as replacement costs.

Oh well, it was a nice idea (for the folks who got paid for the bikes/racks/payment machines).

 

[teuchter]

Only 14 minutes googling effort!

 

[London_Calling]

Scary:

PARIS CYCLE SCHEME IN NUMBERS
20,000 bicycles
1,250 stations
Cost 400 euros each to replace
7,800 "disappeared"
11,600 vandalised
1,500 daily repairs
Staff recover 20 abandoned bikes a day
Each bike travels 10,000 km a year
42 million users since launch

Source: Velib

 

[Cobbles]

Only 14 minutes googling effort!

Apparently about as long as the average velib boneshaker lasts.........

 

[ddraig]

Apparently about as long as the average velib boneshaker lasts.........

source?

 

[flash]

As an FYI my comment about planning permission last night - they have permission for at least 25% of the docking stations apparently.

 

[Crispy]

I did read somewhere that network rail isn't allowing any outside their stations. Can't find a link. Say it ain't so?

 

[flash]

Scary:

PARIS CYCLE SCHEME IN NUMBERS
20,000 bicycles
1,250 stations
Cost 400 euros each to replace
7,800 "disappeared"
11,600 vandalised
1,500 daily repairs
Staff recover 20 abandoned bikes a day
Each bike travels 10,000 km a year
42 million users since launch

Source: Velib

Isn't it being based on the Montreal Bixi scheme?? (only 15% of the bikes vandalized since May 2009)

 

[London_Calling]

Isn't it being based on the Montreal Bixi scheme?? (only 15% of the bikes vandalized since May 2009)

Where are we now, August? That's alright then !

 

[Oswaldtwistle]

I did read somewhere that network rail isn't allowing any outside their stations. Can't find a link. Say it ain't so?

I vaguely recall hearing similar...

 

[flash]

Isn't it being based on the Montreal Bixi scheme?? (only 15% of the bikes vandalized since May 2009)

Sorry I want to correct that - it's 15% of the docking stations that have been vandalised since May (it appears the paper in questions only visited 10% of the stations though 30 out of 300 - sorry my French is shocking - so it's not exactly solid figures or reporting). Approx. 20% of bikes vandalised over the same period and they are already looking at revised docking stations designs. And this is the one we are basing our scheme on?

Report is here:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/regional/montreal/200907/05/01-881358-robuste-le-bixi.php

oh and also what you can do with the Paris bikes (I'm sure someone will make a British version somewhere on the South Bank):

 

[deadringer]

Scary:

PARIS CYCLE SCHEME IN NUMBERS
20,000 bicycles
1,250 stations
Cost 400 euros each to replace
7,800 "disappeared"
11,600 vandalised
1,500 daily repairs
Staff recover 20 abandoned bikes a day
Each bike travels 10,000 km a year
42 million users since launch

Source: Velib

so do those stats make it worthwhile or a waste of money?

 

[deadringer]

Has anyone mentioned the fact that lots of people would probably like to cycle and own a bike but they don't have anywhere to keep it. Lot's of people live in flats, which might mean leaving it ouside or in the hallway, blocking up fire exits etc. To be able to hire a bike and then just leave it for someone else to worry about maintenance, pumping up the tyres, checking the lights is a great plus for thousands.

or somewhere safe to leave it at night at stations, etc. think so many people are put off shelling out for a bike for fear of it getting robbed, vandelised, ect