Another Russian spy hit?

[2hats]

So they’re whacking this stuff in fags so the target can blow nerve gas smoke all over the place? Surely they wouldn’t be that fucking stupid???

I suspect the exhale would be nowhere near as strong as the inhale...

 

[Spymaster]

I suspect the exhale would be nowhere near as strong as the inhale...

I don’t doubt that but the prospect of someone walking down the high street whilst puffing away on nerve juice has to be a trifle concerning, no?

 

[2hats]

I don’t doubt that but the prospect of someone walking down the high street whilst puffing away on nerve juice has to be a trifle concerning, no?

Puffing? There won’t be a second puff.

 

[agricola]

There were already plenty of signs that Tillerson was being cut adrift so I'm not big on making a connection to the UK Russia stuff.

Perhaps, though there are some interesting points raised here in disagreement:

Within the hour, the State Department issued a statement insisting that Tillerson “had every intention of remaining” and “did not speak to the President this morning and is unaware of the reason.” CNN reported that Tillerson had received a call from White House Chief of Staff John Kelly on Friday night indicating that he would be replaced that did not specify timing; a senior White House official told the network that it was Trump himself who had suddenly decided to pull the trigger on Tuesday morning. Tillerson learned of his actual firing the same way everybody else did: By reading about it on Twitter shortly after 8:44 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, March 13.

A lot turns on that timing. On March 12, Tillerson had backed the British government’s accusation that Russia was culpable for a nerve-agent attack on United Kingdom soil. If Tillerson had been fired March 9, then his words of support for Britain could not explain his firing three days before. But if the White House was lying about the timing, it could be lying about the motive.

And since it now seems all but certain that the White House was lying about the timing, it looks more probable that it was lying about the motive too.

That suspicion was accelerated by the president’s words to the White House press corps before stepping aboard Marine One:

“As soon as we get the facts straight, if we agree with them, we will condemn Russia or whoever it may be.”

That is not support for Britain. It is the direct opposite.

Britain and the United States share intelligence information fully, freely, and seamlessly. It’s inconceivable that the U.S. government has not already seen all the information that Theresa May saw before she rose in the House of Commons to accuse Russia.

If the U.S. government had a serious concern about the reliability of that information, it would have expressed that concern directly and privately to the U.K. government before May spoke. But the U.S. had no such concern—that’s why the now-fired secretary of state and the U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom both endorsed May’s words. When Trump raises doubts about the facts, about American agreement with its British ally, about the accuracy of the British accusation against Russia, Trump is not expressing good-faith uncertainty about imperfect information. Trump is rejecting the consensus view of the U.K. and U.S. intelligence communities about an act of Russian aggression—and, if his past behavior is any indication, preparing the way for his own determination to do nothing.

It echoes the approach he took toward Russian intervention in the U.S. election to help elect him in 2016: Feign uncertainty about what is not uncertain in order to justify inaction.

The U.S.-U.K. response to the Russian nerve gas attack should have been coordinated in advance. It was not. The U.S. statement of support for Britain should have arrived on the day that the prime minister delivered her accusation. It did not. The retaliation—if any—should also already be agreed upon. It plainly has not been.

The United Kingdom does not find itself deprived of U.S. support because of some British mistake or rush to judgment. Most of the U.S. government shares the British assessment of what happened—as attested by Tillerson’s statement in support of Britain, which would have relied on U.S. intelligence agency reports. Only Trump stands apart, vetoing any condemnation of Russia and perhaps punishing his secretary of state for breaking ranks on the president’s no-criticizing-Putin policy.

 

[elbows]

Perhaps, though there are some interesting points raised here in disagreement:

I didnt find most of those points that interesting, and that was before I realised the article was written by David Frum.

One of the reasons I dont find it terribly compelling is that when it comes to the timing, stuff has clearly been going on with Tillerson for some days in the buildup to his firing. (eg 'taken ill' and cancelling stuff whilst on Africa tour).

I'm not saying there is nothing to it, but these days its rather easy to churn out stuff about Trump and Russia in a manner that has more to do with existing perceptions about Trump and Russia and less to do with any meaty factoid revelations that could actually have consequences. And when dealing with someone as shit at diplomacy as Trump, I'm not sure I will be interpreting his public utterances with the assumption that he is always quite clear what he is doing in terms of diplomatic language and sending messages with the right tone and volume for the international audience through such channels.

 

[tim]

I thought that had been disproved?

That does not mean that you can't make political mileage out of it.

 

[tim]

i disagree, vehmently.

i'm not going to climb on my horse for the life of a traitor, treason is a game that has big boys rules, well established big boys rules, and if our friend had answered the door to a pair of 9mm to the head then i'd have been a little unhappy, but meh..

however, this is the use of poison, a very, very dangerous poison that unless it was delivered personally to the target could have gone anywhere (how many times has your neighbours post, or flowers, or parcels been delivered to you?), and even once it was delivered correctly, was then spread all over a small city, and other people who were not the targets have been exposed to it, and have become very seriously ill - and certainly in the case of the daughter, may well die from it.

that is a reckless act, and if they can be reckless about not caring that it was going to be spread over everything and everyone the target/s touched for hours after exposure, then perhaps they could be reckless about the dose - a decimal point here, a decimal point there, and suddenly its not three in hospital, its thirty, or three hundred, or three thousand. perhaps writing the wrong address on the envelope and it goes to a house down the road with three kids under 5, or the postie accidentally drops the letter and it goes into the water supply...

If it's so dangerous why hasn't it killed anyone yet? It does not seem likely that vast numbers of people were ever at risk

 

[CRI]

So they’re whacking this stuff in fags so the target can blow nerve gas smoke all over the place? Surely they wouldn’t be that fucking stupid???

They would care? Why?

 

[elbows]

They would care? Why?

Regardless of whether they would 'care', they would at least factor such things into any calculation as to whether to proceed with a particular operation. If there is a fair chance of the operation causing quite a large number of casualties, they would have to factor in a different level of expected condemnation and response by the 'victim nation'. There are also other reasons why quite narrowly targeted methods of assassination and killing are often favoured over death painted with a much broader brush. And yes, there are times where these calculations still result in the sloppy and broad methods getting the go ahead, although its sort of relatively rare in this context. Far more common when we are talking about things like death from above, with such delightful terms such as collateral damage having being coined and used to the point of near numbness.

 

[CRI]

Regardless of whether they would 'care', they would at least factor such things into any calculation as to whether to proceed with a particular operation. If there is a fair chance of the operation causing quite a large number of casualties, they would have to factor in a different level of expected condemnation and response by the 'victim nation'. There are also other reasons why quite narrowly targeted methods of assassination and killing are often favoured over death painted with a much broader brush. And yes, there are times where these calculations still result in the sloppy and broad methods getting the go ahead, although its sort of relatively rare in this context. Far more common when we are talking about things like death from above, with such delightful terms such as collateral damage having being coined and used to the point of near numbness.

That's only the case if the goal is just to take out the target. Get in, do it quickly, cleanly, discreetly, make it look like an accident or suicide even.

This guy could have been topped a dozen different ways but no, they left an obvious calling card - a chemical that leads straight back to Russian government controlled labs.

So, it's likely this was meant to send a bigger message, and "collateral damage" if anything helps strengthen that message, in a "look what we can do under your noses and you can do fuck all about it," kind of way.

 

[CRI]

If it's so dangerous why hasn't it killed anyone yet? It does not seem likely that vast numbers of people were ever at risk

Last I heard, the intended victim and his daughter who (presumably) was not the intended victim are both still in critical condition, in induced comas in hospital, and the cop who attended them is still very ill with serious, permanent organ damage, but that's no shakes because they ain't dead? Other people in the area also reporting symptoms, but still, no biggie?

 

[teqniq]

Corbyn understands foreign policy – he proved it yesterday with Russia and he's proven it in the past

 

[not-bono-ever]

Corbyn understands foreign policy – he proved it yesterday with Russia and he's proven it in the past

that sorta sums up the background as i take it- for the indy anyway - i hopemovement on the treasury sanctions list as an absolute minimum now( lolz) . There are very few *russians* on the list, more southern republics biznessmen from the 'stans generally. There has been a tightly monitored very light touch on the classic oligarch circle as to all UKG intents and purposes, they are straight. Obviously its not hard to see what is really going on- whether we show the mettle to actually take these rapacious thieving shitbags to task will be interesting.Obvs Indy owner Lebdev is not in putins inner circle of olgrc chums any longer

 

[tim]

Last I heard, the intended victim and his daughter who (presumably) was not the intended victim are both still in critical condition, in induced comas in hospital, and the cop who attended them is still very ill with serious, permanent organ damage, but that's no shakes because they ain't dead? Other people in the area also reporting symptoms, but still, no biggie?

It's really not of the level of a biggie that has kebabking was iffing himself into a frenzy about with his scenarios of thousands of casualties

 

[CRI]

It's really not of the level of a biggie that has kebabking was iffing himself into a frenzy about with his scenarios of thousands of casualties

No, not thousands, but it could have been and still could be in future.

I think the issue is also that the emergency services weren't expecting this to happen in sleepy Salisbury, treated the two as though they were drugged up and only much later realised dozens, perhaps hundreds of people could have been exposed to the chemical. The advice, many hours after the event, to "wash all your clothes and possessions if you were in the area" wouldn't do much to reassure me if I was in the vicinity, especially if I was feeling ill. Bit like the aluminium in the water at Camelford or the lead in the water in Flint, some of the effects might not draw attention immediately, but the damage is already done and probably irreversible. Have you read anything about how nerve agents work? It would only take a small goof up in the right place and yep, could be thousands affected. I'd really rather that not happen.

 

[not-bono-ever]

TBF, kebabking post was a response to a sloppily presented provocative post by me.I am sure he has far far more knowledge of the issues than i will ever have.

 

[2hats]

I think the issue is also that the emergency services weren't expecting this to happen in sleepy Salisbury

I wouldn’t necessarily assume that.

treated the two as though they were drugged up and only much later realised dozens, perhaps hundreds of people could have been exposed to the chemical.

I’m not so sure. How about: they perhaps realised what was going on and treated them relatively quickly otherwise they’d more likely be bagged as biohazards by now, and they didn’t know how the public might react and didn’t want to create panic. There might be a reason local A&E staff might be trained to recognise such symptoms and have ready access to exactly the right antidote and therapeutic drugs.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I think the issue is also that the emergency services weren't expecting this to happen in sleepy Salisbury

The A&E dept at Salisbury is likely one of the most prepared ones for this kind of thing. At the very least, they'll have a very useful phone number to call when presented with weird neurological symptoms.

 

[tim]

No, not thousands, but it could have been and still could be in future.

I think the issue is also that the emergency services weren't expecting this to happen in sleepy Salisbury, treated the two as though they were drugged up and only much later realised dozens, perhaps hundreds of people could have been exposed to the chemical. The advice, many hours after the event, to "wash all your clothes and possessions if you were in the area" wouldn't do much to reassure me if I was in the vicinity, especially if I was feeling ill. Bit like the aluminium in the water at Camelford or the lead in the water in Flint, some of the effects might not draw attention immediately, but the damage is already done and probably irreversible. Have you read anything about how nerve agents work? It would only take a small goof up in the right place and yep, could be thousands affected. I'd really rather that not happen.

"Could have been" and "Could be" are rhe scare mongering cliches of cheap journalism and insecure politicians. "Salisbury" is of course another absurd cliché. It is the main base of the British Army. If the police aren't ready to deal with an emergency there, they are unlikely to do better anywhere else in the country.

 

[elbows]

The 'could have been thousands, Russia doesnt care' line is also silly because any form of foreign state action that lead to the sudden and horrible death of thousands of people is far more likely to be treated the same as any kind of military attack on the civilian population that results in mass casualties. And that sort of stuff is reserved for a level of conflict between nations that is not exactly close to where the UK and Russia are at today. There is no great doubt these days as to how far Russia will go when it comes to territory it considers to be within its sphere of influence (Ukraine) or keeping a useful regime in power (Syria). But we know the sorts of things Russia does when playing games with the UK, and we can even sensibly imagine how things could worsen in future, but resorting so freely to the rhetorical atrocity multiplier is an unproductive waste of credibility.

Those who latch eagerly onto mental images of 'Putin laughing at us' about this sort of thing, might want to consider whether some of their own reactions provide additional comic fodder. I do not suggest ignoring the threat or even downplaying it, although on occasions there may be something to be said for 'no selling a move'. And I wait with interest to see what kind of response the government cobbles together.

 

[CRI]

Bizarro responses here, but okay. Maybe next time it will happen to the guy next to you in the pub, so good luck.

 

[elbows]

There is nothing bizarre about wanting to preserve some degree of accuracy regarding the scale of things. And some sense of risk, which in this case means that yes, I am going to waste zero seconds of my life worrying that I could get caught up in this sort of thing. That doesnt make me disinterested in this case or happy to offer Russia any sort of free pass.

 

[tim]

Bizarro responses here, but okay. Maybe next time it will happen to the guy next to you in the pub, so good luck.

Almost certainly it won't, thought. I'm much more at risk from the grab rails of the DLR smeared, as they are, with perfectly natural but potentially lethal lurgie, or an exotic dose of the flu contracted from a friendly but over tactile student, a farewell hug from Aleksandra from Sakhalin, perhaps.

 

[2hats]

Bizarro responses here, but okay. Maybe next time it will happen to the guy next to you in the pub, so good luck.

There’s at least one** very good reason the medical authorities in that area might be well versed in what to do when confronted by the symptoms of such an incident. I don’t spend any time worrying about expiring in a road accident, which is vastly more probable, so why worry about the infinitesimally unlikely?

** Hint:

 

[LDC]

I am interested in the machinations and thinking behind this...

As others have said, why use a nerve agent that can be traced so easily and obviously to Russia? And with all the attendant risks to others? And knowing that when it's traced the UK is going to have to respond in some way. Also was the hit itself a fuck up on the day, and if so why - was the delivery botched? And where are the team, out of the country I suspect, but I imagine there's a fairly frantic search going on for them?

 

[2hats]

I imagine there's a fairly frantic search going on for them?

Perhaps none at all, because it’s hard to trace the untraceable, those at the top of their chosen craft. Or, they already know who they are and that they are already out of reach.

 

[likesfish]

getting the fuck out of dodge is fairly easy if you can hop on Eurostar fairly hard if the plan is yomp across the plain and head for the coast to be picked up by sub

 

[2hats]

I am interested in the machinations and thinking behind this...

As others have said, why use a nerve agent that can be traced so easily and obviously to Russia? And with all the attendant risks to others? And knowing that when it's traced the UK is going to have to respond in some way.

Just like the way the UK responded to Litvinenko’s killing, where the assassins kindly left a clear radioactive trail all the way back home. A trail composed of a rare element that could be precisely matched to the facility that produced it?

 

[Idris2002]

Just like the way the UK responded to Litvinenko’s killing, where the assassins kindly left a clear radioactive trail all the way back home. A trail composed of a rare element that could be precisely matched to the facility that produced it?

Luca Brasi sleeps with the fishes.

 

[tim]

getting the fuck out of dodge is fairly easy if you can hop on Eurostar fairly hard if the plan is yomp across the plain and head for the coast to be picked up by sub

But on an alternative equally Bondian scenario you could be back in your lab at Porton in a quarter of an hour