...and Yemen!

[elbows]

Cheers.

Also found a post of mine earlier in this thread, post 29 I think, that links to a media article from February 27th that was showing that the tribal leader stuff had already started to get quite serious by that point.

 

[klang]

Bits of this have happened previously, but its reached a new level as this article demonstrates:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/20/yemen-funeral-protesters





And related specifically to your question:

gosh he really is running out of steam!

 

[Divisive Cotton]

It be would lovely if he goes... another scalp for the masses

 

[klang]

i'm really wondering how yemen will cope with a power vacuum -so far i'm very impressed by the peacefulness of the opposition, considering how many arms there are in the country. will the solidarity survive saleh's fall? the different fractions - southern movement, the houthies, etc - have very clear aims...
opinions?

 

[elbows]

Not sure, too many variables & chances for some form of outside intervention, and the picture we've been given of Yemen in recent years is hardly detailed enough for me to think I've got a good idea about the country.

BBC story that is new enough to include info about him sacking his cabinet:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12800887

 

[klang]

you are right - there are a lot of different movements of significance, without even taking tribal politics and demands into account (and they will hugely influence yemen's future). off the top of my head there's the houthi uprising, the southern movement, a strong aqap, a socialist movement in aden, and ever-growing islamist movement and saudi's keen interest in hadramaut. then there's the educated elite leading the protests in sana'a, the peasant movement around taizz and ibb, and economic decline in tihama. a lot of different demands and quarrels to take into account. plus foreign intervention has always been a worry, even before recent events...i have this theory that america might have its eyes on socotra to use as an air- and naval base (geographically spoken it lays bang in the middle between various hot-spots and is a lot closer to somalia, egypt, iran, etc than the chagos islands). this is just a theory of mine though, and i don't have any hard evidence to back up this claim.
plus - the sheer amount of arms in private hands is not to be underestimated. estimates vary between 60 million and 80 million ak's for a population of 20 million. and that's only ak's!
the unification of the two yemens in 1990 had a huge impact on a lot of yemenies as it was saleh-driven and the only profiteers were saleh and tribes loyal to him, based mainly in the north of the country. so this is another unresolved issue )which takes us back to the southern movement and beyond).
either way - people seem to be genuinely fed up with corruption and oppression, which in itself is a unifying force. i hope this force is strong enough to prevent the country from falling into another civil war.

 

[elbows]

Would not be too shocked if he falls from power today:

Iyad El-Baghdadi
AJA: Major #Yemen army presence in the capital, including tanks.

(AJA = AlJazeera Arabic)

 

[teqniq]

Looks like things may be coming to a head:

12:48pm
"The crisis is getting more complicated and it's pushing the country towards and violence and civil war," General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar says in a statement on Al Jazeera.

According to what I'm feeling, and according to the feelings of my partner commanders and soldiers... I announce our support and our peaceful backing to the youth revolution. We are going to fulfil our duties in preserving security and stability.

Al-Ahmar is the most senior military officer to pledge support for the opposition, which has been agitating for weeks to end Saleh's 32-year rule over the impoverished, tribal country.

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/middle-east/yemen-live-blog-march-21

 

[elbows]

The Guardian reports on these developments:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/21/yemen-military-commanders-opposition-tanks

Three Yemen army commanders, including a top general, have defected to the opposition calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down, as tanks were deployed in the streets of the capital.

The most senior of the three officers is Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a long-time confidant of Saleh and commander of the army's powerful 1st Armoured Division.

Units of the division were deployed on Monday in a major square in Sana'a, where protesters have been camping out to call for Saleh to step down.

All three officers belong to Saleh's Hashid tribe, which called on the president to step down on Sunday, delivering a serious blow to his attempts to cling on to power.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I think its the end for him surely

 

[elbows]

Looks increasingly likely...

AJELive AJELive
"We announce that we support and protect the youths who are protesting at University Square in Sanaa," Yemen's armoured infantry commander.

 

[butchersapron]

Was just going to post that up - when cracks like this occour - esp among such long standing and central allies - it's usually game up. Maybe not for the wider regime but certainly for the leading personalities. I wonder if a decision has been made to force this to a resolution before it goes all libya - considering the amount of arms the gen populace has.

 

[klang]

wow, big day for yemen....

 

[classicdish]

Don't know if this means anything but the official sit for the yemeni embassy in london just comes up with

"This Website is under Construction"

link: http://www.yemenembassy.org.uk/

Anyone know if this an "Anonymous" attack / hack?

 

[klang]

Don't know if this means anything but the official sit for the yemeni embassy in london just comes up with

"This Website is under Construction"

link: http://www.yemenembassy.org.uk/

Anyone know if this an "Anonymous" attack / hack?

the website has been 'under construction' on and off for the most part of the last three years or so.

 

[klang]

more updates on resigning military personell here:

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/middle-east/yemen-live-blog-march-21

 

[klang]

so yemen is going through yet another revolution / change. the solidarity seems strong atm, let's hope it lasts...

 

[klang]

the list of resignations is getting longer every minute:

4:21pm The list (see below) of people who resigned or defected from president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime is growing rapidly. The latest to join the list is Yemen’s ambassador to Egypt.

Army Officers:

Major General Ali Mohsen Saleh, Head of the North Western Military Zone
Brigadier Hameed Al koshebi, head of brigade 310 in Omran area
Brigadier Mohammed Ali Mohsen, Head of the Eastern Division
Brigadier Nasser Eljahori, head of brigade 121
General Ali Abdullaha Aliewa, Adviser of the Yemeni supreme leader of the army
General Faisal Rajab, based in the southern province of Lahij
“Dozens of officers of various ranks” – AFP

Diplomats:
Abdel-Wahhab Tawaf, Ambassador to Syria
Mohammed Ali al-Ahwal, Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Ambassador to Jordan
Ambassador to Kuwait
Ambassador to China
Ambassador to the UN

Local Officials :

Ahmed Qaatabi, Governor of Yemen's southern province of Aden
Himyar al-Ahmar, Deputy Speaker of Parliament
Mayor of Aden

3 MPs

Tribal Leaders

Sheikh Sadeq bin Abdullah Bin Hussein Alahmer, the leader of Hashed tribes

source: AJE

 

[butchersapron]

**

 

[butchersapron]

Quick summary:

Off i go

This is clearly a top level choice. Why they were forced to make it is the real story. Plenty legs left here.

 

[butchersapron]

Great point from dima no one has shot anything at all back, this whole thing - how many people have guns?

 

[peterkro]

Second highest in the world according to Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gun_ownership

 

[elbows]

Via AlJazeera English:

8:19pm
The As-Saadi tribe has joined the rebels in Yemen, Al Jazeera’s correspondent reports.

Yemen’s ambassadors to Qatar, Pakistan, Belgium and Iraq have also joined the revolution and the advisor of Yemen’s premiership has resigned.

There is a lot of noise suggesting he wont last 24 hours. Given the number of defections it does seem like his days are numbered, but I have heard the now familiar 'his son control a powerful division of the army' stuff, so Im not sure.

 

[elbows]

I was struck on several levels by this image on AlJazeera website, originating from twitter user @kSenawy apparently.

 

[Lock&Light]

Are there any ways that the Yemen situation differs from Libya?

Or are we watching a repeat performance?

 

[elbows]

Up till now any similarities have been rather superficial. The country was divided in numerous ways before the uprising, there was a long period of protest that was not totally violent, and indeed there are still many peaceful protests with huge numbers now, there are existing opposition forces in Yemen, its a poor country, etc.

 

[Lock&Light]

Up till now any similarities have been rather superficial. The country was divided in numerous ways before the uprising, there was a long period of protest that was not totally violent, and indeed there are still many peaceful protests with huge numbers now, there are existing opposition forces in Yemen, its a poor country, etc.

Thanks for that. Will these defections bring the government down, or will it prove to be like in Libya, i.e. not enough?

 

[klang]

Al Jazeera's Sana'a office stormed by gunmen at 2am. Broadcasting equipment confiscated. No further details yet.
Also - publication of government-run 14th October newspaper ceased due to 'protest against instructions from the Ministry of Information'.

 

[klang]

Thanks for that. Will these defections bring the government down, or will it prove to be like in Libya, i.e. not enough?

support for the opposition still growing, with most of the tribes siding with protesters now. eventually it will be enough to bring down saleh. whatever happens after is anybody's guess.

 

[klang]

US still keeping it's options open....

4:54pm Reuters - Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, says he is concerned about instability in Yemen but declined to say whether Yemen's leader should step down immediately.

Asked whether the United States still supported Saleh or if it was time for him to go, Gates said: "I don't think it's my place to talk about internal affairs in Yemen."

"We are obviously concerned about the instability in Yemen.

(from AJ's live blog)