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...and Yemen!

The Iranian response is the biggest question mark in my mind at the moment. Although they have historically backed the Houthi's it is not clear how much of a shit Iran actually gives about Yemen, or whether it wants to heat up the proxy war right now.
 
As I said on another thread, it's also a really crucial moment for Iran in terms of trying to get a nuclear deal that gets rid of some of the worst sanctions.

It seems that Thursday was a really important day on that front, as a deadline looms large regarding the nuclear stuff. The Iranian president was on the blower to lots of leaders, and Kerry & Co met an Iranian delegation. Events in Yemen added items to these agendas, to the extent that it would be tempting to believe the timing was deliberate. However actions on the ground in Yemen probably dictated the timing, since the situation rapidly deteriorated to the extent that its now been confirmed that Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia. Also just in time for him to attend a regional political conference in Egypt and make appeals.

I note that the talk is not just of bombing, but also of potentially putting troops on the ground, with Egypt recently confirming its up for it if deemed necessary.
 
The latest MERIP (Middle East Research and Information Project) was on Yemen btw- useful backgrounders - some subscription only, but enough to start making some sense. Even if events are moving pretty fast right now.
 
Another maybe useful backgrounder (author was Middle east editor at guardian for ages):

Yemen and Saudi Arabia: A historical review of relations

As political crisis turns into civil war, Yemen’s embattled president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has appealed for international help. Yemen’s northern neighbour, Saudi Arabia has already said it will "take necessary measures if needed” and today the kingdom is reported to be moving artillery and other heavy military equipment close to the border.

Almost constantly since its foundation in 1932, Saudi Arabia has been involved in Yemen politically, and sometimes militarily – often with negative consequences for Yemen. The article below looks at the history of this relationship

The Treaty of Taif, 1934
Yemen's civil war, 1962-1970
Yemeni unification, 1990
The Gulf War, 1990-91
Expulsions from Saudi Arabia
The oil factor

The border question
North-south war, 1994
The end of the border dispute
The Houthi rebellion
What next?

 
Also might interest some:

Remembering Change Square

This modest photo book also available for free as a pdf recalls a time in Sana’a’s Change Square when people dared to dream, a time when they did extraordinary things because they believed in their own strengths, talents, creativity, and resilience.

The preservation of this collective consciousness is essential not only for an accurate portrayal of history, but also to sustain hope and inspire future generations. Just as the 2011 revolution was an extension of previous acts of resistance, the future will surely build on the shared memories of that year.

The following photos were taken over a one-year period, beginning in February 2011 and ending in February 2012. Without any manipulation of the photographs, the images were selected primarily based on their ability to capture a range of activities inside the square, rather than their artistic qualities or technical composition.
 
BBC documentary, Yemen: The Rise of the Houthis



MERIP do a short to-the-point update piece:

Operation Decisive Storm and the Expanding Counter-Revolution

A closer historical analogy might be the Iranian, Jordanian and British intervention in Oman against the rebellion of the Marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Oman (PFLO) in the 1960s and 1970s. In that case an alliance of conservative monarchies joined forces to support the Omani sultanate against popular forces that had threatened to spread into the greater Persian Gulf. While the Houthis in no way resemble the leftist PFLO in ideology or revolutionary practice, the forces gathered against them have a great deal in common. Namely, they are all part of a counter-revolutionary front that has expanded beyond the GCC to include other authoritarian regimes. While not all these countries share the Saudi and GCC paranoia regarding Iran, they do, to varying degrees, fear the spread of ISIS or popular democratic forces. To these regimes, the Houthis represent one of many forces that threaten to undermine the regional order.

Despite Saudi or even US assertions to the contrary, Operation Decisive Storm has nothing to do with supporting the legitimacy of a political process in Yemen. Its goal is instead to maintain the continuity of authoritarian governance in the region by actively repressing the forces that threaten to undo the status quo. That this coalition has indiscriminately lumped together ISIS, Iran and the popular democratic movements of the Arab uprisings of 2011 should indicate both its broader strategic goals and, equally, the dangers to positive political and social change it represents.
 
Things are not necessarily going the way the Saudis want, at least at the moment.

Yemeni Houthi fighters in tanks reach central Aden

Houthi fighters and their army allies advanced in a column of tanks on Wednesday into a central district of the southern city of Aden, the main foothold of loyalists of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, witnesses said.

The Houthis' military push into the Khor Maksar district happened despite a week of Saudi-led air strikes as well as bombardment from naval vessels off the coast of Aden aimed at reversing relentless Houthi gains on the battlefield.

The Shi'ite Muslim fighters and their ally, former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, emerged as the dominant force in Yemen after they took over the capital six months ago.

Aden residents saw large groups of fighters carrying rocket propelled grenades accompanied by tanks and trucks mounted with machine guns in Khor Maksar, which lies on narrow neck of land linking central Aden with the mainland....
 
That documentary:(

The houthis sound like cunts but al-q and daesh arent exactly any better. Depressing that they are the de facto opposition and the saudi operation is basically supporting them
 
@Terror_Monitor: #Yemen - Thousands of #Yemenis Demonstrate In Capital #Saana Against The #Saudi Lead Bombardment Of Their Country.

CBhBBWAVAAAz88k.jpg:large


That looks like a lot of people, anyone else got independent verification? Press TV is the Iranian news service
 
Certainly were big protests yesterday,don't know about today - big immediate story seems to be sandstorm. Two horrible storms for one.
 
@Terror_Monitor: #Yemen - Thousands of #Yemenis Demonstrate In Capital #Saana Against The #Saudi Lead Bombardment Of Their Country.

CBhBBWAVAAAz88k.jpg:large


That looks like a lot of people, anyone else got independent verification? Press TV is the Iranian news service

apparently demos in sana'a and taiz today. don't know about numbers or anything, phone lines are really bad atm.
 
from friday 02.04.15:

'things are very bad here. sana'a is under heavy bombardment. bombs have been falling for 8 days now. the airport is shut, we don't get medications or other essential goods. it's difficult to say how many civilian casualties there are, but it's too many. people live in constant fear, especially children are suffering, mentally and physically. at the moment it is too much of a risk to leave the house and go out on the streets. not only because of the saudi air raids but also because of gunmen and potential suicide bombers. nobody in the arab world ever cared about yemen and now this...i don't see a way out.'
 
I'm probably missing the big picture altogether, but can't really get my head around Saudi (one of world's richest countries) bombing Yemen (one of world's worst-off countries) given the historically very close links between Yemeni and Saudi elites and 'Arab unity' and all that. Surely Shia/Houthi Yemenis already hate the al Sauds on sectarian grounds and now even the Sunni Yemenis mute hate them for being warmongering despots rotten with oil money?
 
It's partly because their approved poster boy has been ousted by the Houthis and also because the Houthis are a Shia sect who rightly or wrongly the Saudis believe are backed by Iran (though they deny this). As far as Sunni Yemenis are concerned the Houthis are unacceptable therefore large contingents of them especially in the south have allied themselves with the Al-Quaeda affiliate in Yemen (that is if they weren't already allied). That is the bare bones of it, yet another clusterfuck.
 
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houthi aren't going to stop at the current border is why, they want the old shia kingdom territory back and the saudis certainly don't want that and they don't want their own shia population to start getting ideas either
 
They're just doing what the Saudis expect of them wrt denouncing Iranian support of houthi. I doubt they care all that much. Obamas desperate for an iranian nuclear agreement for his legacy, see also Cuba
 
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