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32,000 scientists dissent from global-warming “consensus”

A point to make about scientific certainty.

It wasn't very long ago that medical science was in full agreement that stomach ulcers were caused by or contributed to in a big way, by stress. The stress apparently caused a buildup of stomach acid that eventually ate through the stomach wall.

This was the gospel until Marshall and Warren came along. But when those two looked, they found there had been others over the past century who had put forward the same idea, but who were ignored or castigated by the scientific community.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/extract/353/23/2421

Now, science has done a 180 degree turn: everybody accepts that its helicobacter that causes ulcers, not stress.

Maybe you'll get my point, maybe not.
 
helicobacter

For centuries the scientific consensus was that carbon dioxide emissions weren't doing very much.

Then scientists homed in on what was actually going in - and realised that their conclusions had been prefigured by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, but he'd been ignored.

Now, there's disagreement between tens of thousands of qualified people who have done the work studying the climate on the one hand, and a bunch of people whose position is determined by a deeply ingrained political preference - or from taking cash - on the other.

Equally, I'm sure you'll still find someone who'll sell you expensive relaxation tapes to deal with your ulcer and denies the role of heliobacter.
 
A point to make about scientific certainty.

It wasn't very long ago that medical science was in full agreement that stomach ulcers were caused by or contributed to in a big way, by stress. The stress apparently caused a buildup of stomach acid that eventually ate through the stomach wall.

This was the gospel until Marshall and Warren came along. But when those two looked, they found there had been others over the past century who had put forward the same idea, but who were ignored or castigated by the scientific community.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/extract/353/23/2421

Now, science has done a 180 degree turn: everybody accepts that its helicobacter that causes ulcers, not stress.

Maybe you'll get my point, maybe not.

People can get stuff wrong. Is that your point?

An idea can be so ingrained as an orthodoxy that nobody researches the possibility that it might be wrong. Is that your point?

People have got stuff wrong in the past, so this might also be wrong. Is that your point?

or...

You have looked at the evidence and are unconvinced by it. Is that your point?

And to talk of this thing called 'science' as if it were a sentient entity is lazy and wrong. 'Science' doesn't do U-turns. Science is merely a method for examining the world. And again, what exactly is 'scientific certainty'?

BTW It is bad science to treat anything as 'gospel'.
 
People can get stuff wrong. Is that your point?

An idea can be so ingrained as an orthodoxy that nobody researches the possibility that it might be wrong. Is that your point?

People have got stuff wrong in the past, so this might also be wrong. Is that your point?

Yes, this is my point, combined with the fact that there are people who know a lot about it, who dissent from the theory.

My point is that before massive changes are made in the way we live, perhaps some non political research would be a good idea, in an attempt to get at the truth as best we can.
 
JC2 - would you care to think about my point?

That is: your analogy is exactly backasswards: the role of CO2, like that of heliobacter, is the new discovery that makes the condition treatable.

The deniers are the old-fogey holdouts and quacks.
 
JC2 - would you care to think about my point?

That is: your analogy is exactly backasswards: the role of CO2, like that of heliobacter, is the new discovery that makes the condition treatable.

The deniers are the old-fogey holdouts and quacks.

I know you're saying that, but the new orthodoxy, is anthropogenic climate change.
 
I know you're saying that, but the new orthodoxy, is anthropogenic climate change.


So you would stand by your analogy, and you would argue that because heliobacter is the new orthodoxy, and there is disagreement, no-one should get dangerous heavy-duty antibiotics for their ulcers?


E2A: perhaps there should be a moratorium on antibiotics until there's been some non-government-funded reasearch?
 
Yes, this is my point, combined with the fact that there are people who know a lot about it, who dissent from the theory.

My point is that before massive changes are made in the way we live, perhaps some non political research would be a good idea, in an attempt to get at the truth as best we can.
The Hadley Centre, part of the UK Met Office, which is in turn technically part of the UK Navy, has no political reason to have an agenda promoting the idea of anthropogenic climate change. I am sure the UK government, and pretty much all governments, would be very happy if the scientific consensus were that climate change is not happening and that painful, potentially unpopular changes in the way we live were not necessary.

Research into climate change requires very powerful computers and global measurement of all kinds of indicators, plus a large team of researchers to design, test and run climate models. This is very expensive. The funding must come from somewhere - what exactly would you call 'non-political' research? Who would fund it? Given that international cooperation is required to gather and analyse the data (which comes from all kinds of sources, including satellites, aircraft, weather balloons, weather buoys, manned and automatic weather stations...), how could it be done independently of governments?
 
No, but I believe in a healthy scepticism in all things.

Starting from an automatic position of disbelief, is just another species of true believer.

How exactly does your position differ from "I have an aversion to thinking and to reading, so I'll just say 'there's doubt' and believe the thing that makes me comfortable"?
 
Dude, exhale next time before you start typing.


Ah, good, acknowledgement that the nail is, in fact, hit on the head.

JC2 wouldn't cut CO2 emission to fix climate change, because it's "the orthodoxy", there's dispute (albeit from the self-interested and nutjobs), and there are costs.

JC2 wouldn't take antibiotics to fix ulcers, because it's "the orthodoxy", there's dispute (albeit from the self-interested and nutjobs), and there are costs.
 
Ah, good, acknowledgement that the nail is, in fact, hit on the head.

JC2 wouldn't cut CO2 emission to fix climate change, because it's "the orthodoxy", there's dispute (albeit from the self-interested and nutjobs), and there are costs.

JC2 wouldn't take antibiotics to fix ulcers, because it's "the orthodoxy", there's dispute (albeit from the self-interested and nutjobs), and there are costs.

You've gone strange.

I'd love it if they came up with a non fossil fuel form of energy that was cheap, safe and reliable, because we're going to run out of the other stuff.

If you think about it, why don't we have it yet? Why isn't there a better car?

The cars we have now, are really just a refinement of the ones they had in 1920. They've tweaked the basic idea, but that's it. The problem is that the car was such a great invention, that the owners of the companies got way too rich, along with the oil companies, the rubber companies, etc. They have such a vested interest, that they've killed a number of good ideas over the years.

Whatever happened to the turbine car?

You can gripe all you want about how people are the problem, they are profligate users of energy, of cars, etc. Fact is, those with the money, have slowly designed our lives so that we are completely dependent on these things, and we keep enriching them in order to have what we need. The fabric of our lives is interwoven with the things that have made these people rich.

I don't want more taxes to 'solve' the problem. It won't. I don't know how it is in the UK, but here, we have Utilities Commisions, that monitor the cost of basic, important utilities, like natural gas, electricity, the telephone etc. It's done because these things are basic necessities. These companies can't raise prices without permission.

How did gasoline and the oil companies manage to escape this kind of oversight?
 
For me the main issue with the petition is its credibility, given the track record of the petition's organisers. It appears to be yet another in a succession of arguably fraudulent and at best misleading petitions organised by people with clear industry PR ties. I've already posted about the previous efforts so I trust nobody will mind if I simply recycle that to save digging out all the links again.

The Heidelberg Appeal was the brainchild of PR wizard Michel Salomon and was associated with his PR front-group the International Centre for Scientific Ecology An organisation which had the grand-daddy of all professional science deniers, Dr Fred Singer on its board. Salomon is now associated with SEPP, one of Singer’s other front groups (there is a fairly rapid turnover of these groups, as they get recognised for what they are, new ones need to be created to preserve the illusion) - a group part-funded by the Rev Sun Myung Moon.

The clever trick about the Heidelberg Appeal was to make it sufficiently vague and to include wording about ecology that many reasonable scientists endorsed, including the 49 of their 72 Nobel Laureates who also signed the World Scientists Warning to Humanity at approximately the same time. The nature of the second document makes it very doubtful that the 49 laureates who signed both would have had much respect for the uses to which the Heidelberg Appeal was then put by the PR people who originally circulated and promoted it. Here is a collection of documents demonstrating the agendas of the PR people behind the Heidelberg Appeal - Designer Front Group is a particularly juicy specimen. Salomon appears to have been initially funded by the tobacco industry, who were early pioneers of many of these techniques while they were trying to dispute the science that showed their products were carcinogenic.

Salomon’s associate Fred Singer was also responsible for the Leipzig Declaration a similar use of the third party scam, which also succeded in the purpose of getting lots of favourable press and in misleading members of the general public into thinking that numerous qualified scientists had serious doubts about climate change. This document was produced several years after the Heidelberg Appeal and it appears that real scientists had become wary of PR scams by then, because its signatories are quite as dodgy as those who signed Seitz’s fake NAS petition

Seitz appears to have become involved in science denial in the late 70’s when he was paid to lend his scientific reputation (in nuclear physics and electronics if I recall right) to pioneering cancer disinformation campaigns run by major tobacco companies. Seitz, along with Robinson, Singer, Michaels, Soon, Balunias and the other usual suspects are also members of numerous similar industry funded PR front groups identified in this useful little page from the Union of Concerned Scientists. For example, Soon and Balunias are employed, along with Seitz by the Exxon funded Marshall Institute who are also currently involved in a UK campaign, with the Scientific Alliance PR front group, to cast doubts on climate science.

This then is the core of the anti-science propaganda technique, pioneered by cancer merchants but now adopted by the energy lobby. Get something superficially plausible into the popular press, endorsed by the same tiny group of PR-friendly scientists and media pundits associated with almost all of these PR front groups, which causes the public to believe incorrectly that there is significant doubt among qualified scientists about some science your clients find inconvenient. Then just keep doing it shamelessly whatever the vast majority of scientists, writing in peer-reviewed journals that the general public doesn’t read, are saying.

That way the public gets this vague sense that the science is unproven or somehow doubtful, unless they check what the vast majority of qualified scientists are saying in peer-reviewed journals. Which most of them probably don’t. They just vaguely remember hearing there were scientists who had doubts about climate change.


Bernie,

That is sheer poetry!

:)


Certainly nails the issue down for me. The evidence that the anti-climate change bunch are funded by big oil (and other veststed interests,) specifically to "create doubt", seems overwhelming.


Bastards.

:mad:


Woof
 
The Hadley Centre, part of the UK Met Office, which is in turn technically part of the UK Navy, has no political reason to have an agenda promoting the idea of anthropogenic climate change.

So being part of the navy and funded by the government has no influence on them? :eek::D
 
Being part of the Navy certainly does influence them. They have all kinds of crazy security rules. Last time I was working there I had to be escorted to the toilet :)
 
Being part of the Navy certainly does influence them. They have all kinds of crazy security rules. Last time I was working there I had to be escorted to the toilet :)
:D I worked with them recently and couldn't send them anything by ftp. We had to post everything by snailmail instead.

My point about influence is that if there were any political pressure on them to falsify results (and I have no reason to believe that there is), it would surely be to underplay anthropogenic global warming, not overplay it. Yet there is not a single person working there who is not utterly convinced that it is happening.
 
So being part of the navy and funded by the government has no influence on them? :eek::D

But wouldn't you expect the Navy to want a report entitled Moar Battleships Now11!?

And the government, Everything's fine and Exxon is especially wonderful?
 
Isn't it sad that the science forum only gets busy when some nutcase who didn't get enough attention from his mummy when he was a kid shows up and posts a load of bullshit? There's so much real science out there we could be atlking about :eek:

e2a: the ruthless efficiency with which Bigfish has once again been taken to task here still warms my heart though ;)
 
I was just thinking the same thing. Time to stop talking about the causes of global warming and start talking about the challenges it poses and what can be done.
 
I was just thinking the same thing. Time to stop talking about the causes of global warming and start talking about the challenges it poses and what can be done.

I've been saying for ages we shouldn't be pumping all this shit into the atmosphere anyway regardless if it's causing climate change or not.

Yet I'm apparently a nutter for not following the global warming 'concensus' like a sheep.


Baaaaa. :p
 
I've been saying for ages we shouldn't be pumping all this shit into the atmosphere anyway regardless if it's causing climate change or not.
Sorry, but that's a naive argument from someone who very obviously lives in the rich world. Countries like India and China, where they have to feed, clothe, educate, etc over a billion people each, if told by the rich world that they really ought not to be pumping co2 into the atmosphere – even though we did it and that's one of the reasons why we are rich, just in case it causes harm, but we don't really have any proof – would tell the rich world to get stuffed.
 
Yet I'm apparently a nutter for not following the global warming 'concensus' like a sheep.

If you have any evidence that there isn't a consensus, or that the consensus is due to people behaving like sheep, then please provide it. Otherwise please stop trying to poison the well. :rolleyes:
 
Inverted commas are not an argument.

No, but they are the best way to point out that the phrase contained therein is nonsense cooked up by the CIA to make everyone drink flouridated water and give all their money to the giant lizards. You could make an argument, but that's what the lizards want you to do... :hmm: :hmm: :hmm:
 
Sorry, but that's a naive argument from someone who very obviously lives in the rich world. Countries like India and China, where they have to feed, clothe, educate, etc over a billion people each, if told by the rich world that they really ought not to be pumping co2 into the atmosphere – even though we did it and that's one of the reasons why we are rich, just in case it causes harm, but we don't really have any proof – would tell the rich world to get stuffed.

Where have I said any of that? :D

and by shit I didn't just mean CO2 I meant any pollution dumped into the atmosphere.
 
So, to recap: 32,000 accredited scientist, including 9,000 PhD holders, have signed a petition dissenting from the alarmist view that moderate warming in the twentieth century, amounting to less than 1 degree Centigrade, is "manmade" and potentially catastrophic. On the other hand, a cabal of about 20 or so unaccredited propaganda shills working the internet take the opposite view that Armageddon will soon be visited upon us like a Biblical plague unless we abandon hydrocarbons and take society back into the Dark Ages.

I think we can see, especially if we strip out the incessant corporate media noise, that a barely detectible fraction of society share the alarmists view despite their best efforts here. A fact born out by recent local, Mayoral and by-election results where the Green Machine so spectacularly failed to make any headway at all in terms of their overall share of the vote, notwithstanding millions and millions of pounds worth of free advertising from the BBC and other big media backers.


Anyway, a word from a former warmer:

Dear Friends

This is to let you know that my new book The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution and Fraud now ranks as the #1 best-seller on the environment in both Canada and the U.S.

As many of you know, about two years ago I decided to look into the question of whether the scientific case for global warming really is "settled," as Al Gore and the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claim.

I was especially curious to know more about the scientists who were being labeled as "deniers." Were they really all either in the pay of Exxon or on the fringes of science, as they were being portrayed? Or were there a few honest scientists with legitimate credentials among them?

I knew from our battles to expose the dangers of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s that scientists with integrity who hold unpopular views can expect the scorn of the establishment. I wondered if something similar wasn't happening in the case of those being tarred as global warming "deniers."

What I found when I started digging first surprised and then shocked me. I found dozens of truly eminent and world renowned scientists who reject the conventional wisdom on global warming. I also found that, in case after case, the scientists putting forward the contrary argument were far more accomplished than those who originated the UN's doomsayer view.

In short: the scientists I found and profiled are too eminent and their research too devastating to allow narrow and simplistic views of global warming to survive. They are men like:

Dr. Edward Wegman, former chairman of the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics of the National Academy of Sciences, who showed the famous "hockey stick" graph that heightened the level of global warming concern to be wrong.

Dr. David Bromwich, president of the International Commission on Polar Meteorology, who says "it's hard to see a global warming signal from the mainland of Antarctica right now."

Prof. Paul Reiter, Chief of Insects and Infectious Diseases at the famed Pasteur Institute, who says "no major scientist with any long record in this field" accepts Al Gore's claim that global warming spreads mosquito-borne diseases.

Dr. Christopher Landsea, past chairman of the American Meteorological Society's Committee on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones, who says "there are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between global warming and observed hurricane frequency and intensity."

Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski, world-renowned expert on the ancient ice cores used in climate research, who says the U.N. "based its global-warming hypothesis on arbitrary assumptions and these assumptions, it is now clear, are false."

Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology at M.I.T., member, the National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, who says global warming alarmists "are trumpeting catastrophes that couldn't happen even if the models were right."

Prof. Freeman Dyson, one of the world's most eminent physicists, who says the models used to justify global warming alarmism are "full of fudge factors" and "do not begin to describe the real world."

Am I convinced that global warming is all a hoax? No. After all, many great scientists whose work I examine in the book disagree not only with the global warming doomsayers but with each other. Such disagreement -- the challenging of hypotheses and the resolution of apparent contradictions -- is the very stuff of science.

But I am convinced that those who deny the very existence of a debate are undermining science, not defending it. And I fear that those who would rush us into Kyoto-style "solutions" like carbon credit schemes are proposing a cure that is very likely worse than the disease.


Lawrence Solomon
 
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