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32,000 scientists dissent from global-warming “consensus”

... and the necessity to 'manufacture doubt' using these PR techniques would not exist if the 'cold hard science' wasn't overwhelmingly pointing in a direction that segments of big business didn't like, precisely as it did in the case of the tobacco companies who pioneered these techniques.
 
But you are ridiculing people who are putting forward their EXPERT opinion.
Please state which of the people who signed the petition are experts in climate science.

You, me and possibly everyone else in this thread knows absolutely FUCK ALL about climate change and whether it is down to man.
Speak for yourself.

Now also remember the IPCC has not exactly proven itself to be infallible.
Straw man. Nobody has claimed the IPCC is infallible.

If you remember the figures they used for the 10 hottest years, were completely inaccurate
Please provide evidence for your claim, or withdraw it.
 
Please state which of the people who signed the petition are experts in climate science.

Signatories are approved for inclusion in the Petition Project list if they have obtained formal educational degrees at the level of Bachelor of Science or higher in appropriate scientific fields. The petition has been circulated only in the United States.

Speak for yourself.

So what are you climate change science qualifications?

Straw man. Nobody has claimed the IPCC is infallible.

Yet you defend it as if it is.

Please provide evidence for your claim, or withdraw it.

From the Wiki Page on An Inconvenient Truth.

Gore presents specific data that supports the thesis, including:

Temperature record since 1880 showing that the ten hottest years ever measured in this atmospheric record have all occurred in the last fourteen years.


One of these was the previous hottest year ever 1998.

However, NASA had made an error in their calculations somewhere along the line. Some argued, as I expect if I gave you the chance you would, that this just effected the American Stations and thus would have a limited impact on the "Average" for the Globe.

Problem is, of the system of stations America's stations make up 50% of the stations, so they have a massive impact on the Average Global temperature.

Note, that 1998 is no longer the hottest year on record for America.

Four of the top 10 are now from the 1930s: 1934, 1931, 1938 and 1939, while only 3 of the top 10 are from the last 10 years (1998, 2006, 1999). Several years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004) fell well down the leaderboard, behind even 1900.
 
Four of the top 10 are now from the 1930s: 1934, 1931, 1938 and 1939, while only 3 of the top 10 are from the last 10 years (1998, 2006, 1999). Several years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004) fell well down the leaderboard, behind even 1900.

FFS, if you want to join in an argument about evaluating sources, you have to give sources.

I googled "well down the leaderboard" and have referenced it for you: it comes from Stephen McIntyre, a "semiretired Toronto minerals consultant" who has been criticised for unreported ties to CGX Energy, Inc., an oil and gas exploration company, which listed McIntyre as a "strategic advisor.

It's a legalistic nit-pick.

Here's the discussion at realclimate.org and here are the revised data from NASA that McIntyre was crowing about in August 2007.

Does the entire effort to model the climate break down if it turns out that 1934 was warmer in the continental US than 1998?

Of course not. McIntyre's mission is precisely to create doubt, apealing to the "football game" mentality that I've described. "Oh, if they said 1998 was the warmest and it wasn't there are two sides to the argument and let's do nothing". REF!!

Take a look at the 5-year average figures in the NASA data I linked. Recalculate them if you like.
 
I see now that I made a claim about the IPCC and used Al Gore's film to justify that claim, my mistake, I know Al Gore took the information from the IPCC, but just saying he used it doesn't make it so.

I thought he did, perhaps I should amend the comment to "numbers being used" rather then the IPCC's numbers, because honestly, I can't be bothered to go and check.

I really don't care that much, thought it was interesting that 32,000 academics would sign a petition countering claims that had been accepted by many, and was surprised to see the attitude in the thread.

Laptops post goes someway to explaining perhaps people act that way, but I don't think that you can do that regardless of what is presented before you.

If you have a serious complaint to make about the petition, someway to discredit it, then have a go, but just laughing at people who would bother to look at it as valid evidence seems a bit of a lack lustre way of fighting against what you perceive as biased and untrustworthy. You may be able to force people into towing the line in public, but in private you won't have changed a thing, so you won't have changed attitudes.
 
Does the entire effort to model the climate break down if it turns out that 1934 was warmer in the continental US than 1998?

That isn't the claim at all though is it.

That is your attempt to push anyone who has any questions to a sideline. Oh you must be a nutter, becuase you believe a ridiculous premise that I am creating for you.

I have already stated I believe in climate change, because of the acceptance of it. I don't really see the point of swimming against hte tide considering my lack of scientific knowledge on the issue.

But when 32,000 people who all purport to have that scientific knowledge get together to write a petition against some of the Claims of the IPCC and how drastic climate change is.

Then I have to see more then people ridiculing each other to think that this is anything less then legitimate.
 
Based on the way you write, I'd question the academic standards of whatever country it was you trained in.:D

Sure you do.
I question your background if you think the dubious use of academic titles to underscore arguments that have nothing to do with your field is a normal thing do.

salaam.
 
For me the main issue with the petition is its credibility, given the track record of the petition's organisers. It appears to be yet another in a succession of arguably fraudulent and at best misleading petitions organised by people with clear industry PR ties. I've already posted about the previous efforts so I trust nobody will mind if I simply recycle that to save digging out all the links again.

The Heidelberg Appeal was the brainchild of PR wizard Michel Salomon and was associated with his PR front-group the International Centre for Scientific Ecology An organisation which had the grand-daddy of all professional science deniers, Dr Fred Singer on its board. Salomon is now associated with SEPP, one of Singer’s other front groups (there is a fairly rapid turnover of these groups, as they get recognised for what they are, new ones need to be created to preserve the illusion) - a group part-funded by the Rev Sun Myung Moon.

The clever trick about the Heidelberg Appeal was to make it sufficiently vague and to include wording about ecology that many reasonable scientists endorsed, including the 49 of their 72 Nobel Laureates who also signed the World Scientists Warning to Humanity at approximately the same time. The nature of the second document makes it very doubtful that the 49 laureates who signed both would have had much respect for the uses to which the Heidelberg Appeal was then put by the PR people who originally circulated and promoted it. Here is a collection of documents demonstrating the agendas of the PR people behind the Heidelberg Appeal - Designer Front Group is a particularly juicy specimen. Salomon appears to have been initially funded by the tobacco industry, who were early pioneers of many of these techniques while they were trying to dispute the science that showed their products were carcinogenic.

Salomon’s associate Fred Singer was also responsible for the Leipzig Declaration a similar use of the third party scam, which also succeded in the purpose of getting lots of favourable press and in misleading members of the general public into thinking that numerous qualified scientists had serious doubts about climate change. This document was produced several years after the Heidelberg Appeal and it appears that real scientists had become wary of PR scams by then, because its signatories are quite as dodgy as those who signed Seitz’s fake NAS petition

Seitz appears to have become involved in science denial in the late 70’s when he was paid to lend his scientific reputation (in nuclear physics and electronics if I recall right) to pioneering cancer disinformation campaigns run by major tobacco companies. Seitz, along with Robinson, Singer, Michaels, Soon, Balunias and the other usual suspects are also members of numerous similar industry funded PR front groups identified in this useful little page from the Union of Concerned Scientists. For example, Soon and Balunias are employed, along with Seitz by the Exxon funded Marshall Institute who are also currently involved in a UK campaign, with the Scientific Alliance PR front group, to cast doubts on climate science.

This then is the core of the anti-science propaganda technique, pioneered by cancer merchants but now adopted by the energy lobby. Get something superficially plausible into the popular press, endorsed by the same tiny group of PR-friendly scientists and media pundits associated with almost all of these PR front groups, which causes the public to believe incorrectly that there is significant doubt among qualified scientists about some science your clients find inconvenient. Then just keep doing it shamelessly whatever the vast majority of scientists, writing in peer-reviewed journals that the general public doesn’t read, are saying.

That way the public gets this vague sense that the science is unproven or somehow doubtful, unless they check what the vast majority of qualified scientists are saying in peer-reviewed journals. Which most of them probably don’t. They just vaguely remember hearing there were scientists who had doubts about climate change.
 
Well, he did.

No I didn't. I made exclusion of the low academic standards at US universities to comment that it should not be a surprise for certain US academics to rally behind the well known US government standpoint on this issue. f you take that academic standard into account, it is even quesitonable of those who have a degree in the field discussed could compete with others outside the US.
And by the way, a BA degree by no means makes you an expert in the chosen field.

Please try to read JC. I thought I was the one who has no clue about this language and I am the one who is dyslexic too.

salaam.
 
There's a difficult question here with a challenging ethical dimension.

  • We have people like McKitrick and the late Fred Seitz whose mission is to sow doubt, as described.
  • Their target audience is precisely people who "really don't care that much" and "can't be bothered to go and check"
  • So what argument works with such people?

There hasn't been time, yet, to go through and work out who the 32,000 said to have signed the petition are. Investigation of a small sample shows that these are the same people who signed Seitz's earlier petitions.

Of the previous "Oregon" petition, Scientific American reported:

Scientific American took a sample of 30 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to hold a Ph.D. in a climate-related science. Of the 26 we were able to identify in various databases, 11 said they still agreed with the petition —- one was an active climate researcher, two others had relevant expertise, and eight signed based on an informal evaluation. Six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember any such petition, one had died, and five did not answer repeated messages.

Quoted in wikipedia

Is this one the same? Wikipedia authors - fallible as ever - report so:

In October 2007 a number of individuals reported receiving a petition closely similar to the Oregon Petition.[20] As with the earlier version, it contained a six-paragraph covering note from Frederick Seitz along with a reply card and a supporting article. The text of the reply card is identical to the previous petition. Below the text is a signature line, a set of tick boxes for the signatory to state their academic degree (B.S., M.S., Ph.D.) and field, and another tick box stating "Please send more petition cards for me to distribute." This renewed distribution has continued until at least February, 2008.

Still with me? All a bit detailed, isn't it?

I would predict that an investment of a couple of person-years of effort would be enough to find out whether, or to what exent, the petition was actually fraudulent.

But that leaves its target audience untouched - more fucking detail.

Under the circumstances, ridicule is a very very tempting option.

Fred Seitz' petitions? Ha! The ones signed by Dr Geri Halliwell!

Or this:
The Indisputable Corruption of Frederick Seitz, Disgraced, Malignant, And the Conspiracies he has been involved in.

Anyone got a better suggestion for a form of argument?
 
That the last 30 years have been unusually warm, and getting warmer, is not the issue here. This is just true and in itself not necessarily cause for alarm.

Climate change can be caused by many things, including natural variations such as the vagaries of the Earth's orbit and changes in the Sun's activity. Large volcanic eruptions can cause global cooling by releasing aerosols.

So what is important is to model the climate on computers and then remove certain factors from your model to see what difference this makes. When you do this, the picture is pretty clear. Before the various clean air acts, manmade aerosols largely counteracted manmade co2 emissions. Since 1980 as manmade aerosol emissions have been reduced, but co2 emissions increased, global warming has taken place.

The results seem pretty convincing to me and the only valid argument, I would think, would be a technical one about the accuracy of the models. I do not know enough to judge this, but I'd be interested to hear from one who does. If global warming caused by human activity is not occurring then a fairly unlikely coalition would probably have to be conspiring to falsify the models. Why would they?

The place to go to find all this is here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/
 
It's time to change the thread title to 32,000 alleged “scientists” dissent from global-warming consensus, isn't it?
 
It's time to change the thread title to 32,000 alleged “scientists” dissent from global-warming consensus, isn't it?
Yes. The Flat Earth Society does not believe that the Earth is (nearly) spherical. Doesn't mean they are worth listening to.
 
The title should be :

What is the gain of the USA in this debate, that such efforts are made to undermine theory of global warming?

I mean, if you must go as far as to spread a "petition" it looks as if there is no other possible method left then to fight with a bucket against the sea.

salaam.
 
Signatories are approved for inclusion in the Petition Project list if they have obtained formal educational degrees at the level of Bachelor of Science or higher in appropriate scientific fields. The petition has been circulated only in the United States.
I asked you which of them were "EXPERTS" in climate science, as you claimed they were. Please provide those details or concede that your claim was false. Handwaving about about bachelor's degrees in unspecified subjects is not sufficient.

So what are you climate change science qualifications?
Straw man. You claimed that I and others know "FUCK ALL" about climate science. That claim was false.

Yet you defend it [the IPCC] as if it is [infallible].
Please provide a citation where I have done so, or withdraw the claim.

Problem is, of the system of stations America's stations make up 50% of the stations, so they have a massive impact on the Average Global temperature.
If you wish to contradict the mainstream view on this, please provide your evidence.
 
Problem is, of the system of stations America's stations make up 50% of the stations, so they have a massive impact on the Average Global temperature.
This sentence proves that you do not know what you are talking about. Calculation of the average global temperature is done globally, and an area does not receive greater weight just because it has more stations. If you wish to come up with an average US temperature, you can do so using a grid of observations with greater resolution, and hence achieve greater accuracy - that is all this means.

You really should shut up now. In fact, I would suggest that on this forum you should mostly just read, and refrain from posting anything other than respectfully framed questions to clarify a point another poster has made.
 
I asked you which of them were "EXPERTS" in climate science, as you claimed they were. Please provide those details or concede that your claim was false. Handwaving about about bachelor's degrees in unspecified subjects is not sufficient.

I said they offered an Expert opinion, which if you believe the article from which teh OP is made, which is obviously being called into question, then they have Degrees in relevent subjects.

Straw man. You claimed that I and others know "FUCK ALL" about climate science. That claim was false.

So I was right, you have no expertise in Climate Change science. So effectively you know fuck all but what you have been told.

Please provide a citation where I have done so, or withdraw the claim.

I don't believe that was a personal remark against you, but rather the attitude displayed in this thread by many posters who are largely stuck with mockery against the OP, which had made claims against the IPCC.

Which to me indicated a defense of the IPCC that seemed unwarranted.

If you wish to contradict the mainstream view on this, please provide your evidence.

I don't see how I am the one contradicting that, in fact I see that as more evidence for what I said. That the IPCC figures were not infallible. As they weren't.
 
This sentence proves that you do not know what you are talking about. Calculation of the average global temperature is done globally, and an area does not receive greater weight just because it has more stations. If you wish to come up with an average US temperature, you can do so using a grid of observations with greater resolution, and hence achieve greater accuracy - that is all this means.

You really should shut up now. In fact, I would suggest that on this forum you should mostly just read, and refrain from posting anything other than respectfully framed questions to clarify a point another poster has made.

I have already stated my lack of scientific knowledge on the subject, but does that mean I can't ask questions, offer up information I find?

Of course, because you are the star, and you will let us know what we can think and when.

Well thanks, but no thanks.
 
I have already stated my lack of scientific knowledge on the subject, but does that mean I can't ask questions, offer up information I find?
Your statement regarding a bias in the calculation of Global average temperature shows that you are not one to let your lack of understanding prevent you from arriving at conclusions. I would advise a rethink.
 
I said they offered an Expert opinion
For which expertise is required. For the third time, please provide evidence of that expertise or withdraw the claim.

So I was right, you have no expertise in Climate Change science.
Straw man. I never claimed to have expertise. Expertise is not required in order to agree with those who have it. It is required in order to contradict them.

I don't believe that ["infallible" claim] was a personal remark against you
Then please provide a citation where anybody has claimed the IPCC is infallible, or withdraw the claim.

I don't see how I am the one contradicting that
You said the correction had a "massive effect" on the global average temperature, but the mainstream view that I linked to says it had a negligible effect. If you still want to dispute that, provide your evidence.
 
I said they offered an Expert opinion, which if you believe the article from which teh OP is made, which is obviously being called into question, then they have Degrees in relevent subjects.

Having a BSc does not make you an expert in climate change. There are only 9,000 people on there who could potentially be experts in climate change, though it depends on the subject of their PhDs and their subsequent work.

You seem to be saying that we should accept the opinions of these scientists, because they're experts and we're not. But somehow that doesn't apply to all the hundreds of thousands of scientists who disagree with the views in the petition. If we're supposed to bow our humble heads and agree with those with more expertise than us, then surely we'd have to go with the majority?

Besides, in case you hadn't noticed, a couple of people on here really do know what they're talking about. Not me - I'm just reading along and commenting on the parts I am sure about, while holding back when I know nothing.
 
I have already stated my lack of scientific knowledge on the subject, but does that mean I can't ask questions, offer up information I find?
Nobody has said you can't ask questions about any doubts you may have. In fact I specifically invited anyone with doubts to do so on the earlier thread in the world politics forum. (Second comment in this post)

What I do object to you doing is posting up talking points from barking-right blogs as if they were facts, when they are widely known to be false, and then attempting to shift the burden of proof when asked to substantiate them.
 
The premise of the petition is patently absurd. Especially as it appears that many of the 'doctors' are physicians. Medical training is essentially a feat of memory - learning a whole series of symptoms, their likely causes and their possible treatments. Many medical doctors have a poor understanding of science.
 
Thing is though, not enough information is provided on the site to easily check the qualifications of these claimed 'experts'. Where they are readily identifiable, and I encourage anyone to post a counter-example if they can, they are also demonstrably affiliated to industry PR fronts in the cases of: Lindzen, Christy, Seitz, Singer, Michaels, McIntyre, Balunias, Soon et. al. and/or have a track record of involvement in other PR causes dear to the far-right and/or the nastier bits of US big business, for example opposition to the theory of evolution in the case of Robinson or the promotion of nuclear and space weapons systems in the case of Teller.

Furthermore, as has been pointed out repeatedly above, with a very few exceptions, like Lindzen, the ones who are identifiable aren't really 'experts' (in the sense of having published peer-reviewed work) on climate at all.
 
This raises a question in my mind:
How Petition is Circulated

This petition is primarily circulated by U. S. Postal Service mailing to scientists. Included in this mailing are the petition card, the letter from Frederick Seitz, the review article, and a return envelope. If a scientist wishes to sign, he fills out the petition and mails it to the project by first class mail.

Additionally, many petition signers obtain petition cards from their colleagues, who request these cards from the project.

A scientist can also obtain a copy of the petition from this Internet website, sign, and mail it. Fewer than 5% of the current signatories obtained their petition in this way.

Petition project volunteers evaluate each signers's credentials, verify signer identities, and, if appropriate, add the signer's name to the petition list.
source

I wonder what mailing list or lists they used?
 
I wonder foremost why they seem to believe that a bachelor degree makes someone a credible "expert", let alone if the degree has nothing to do with the field of expertise required to be able to discuss this subject. Let alone to evaluate.

They attribute to the whole enterprise an invented academic standard while everyone can see that all sorts of degree holders are asked to sign the petition while having no clue of what is talked about. Laughable.
So called "chain letters" are better structured than this joke.

salaam.
 
Well, the reason I was wondering about the mailing lists was that mailing lists are a key asset for PR outfits and political organisations. The ones available to a bunch of right-wing fruitcakes like the AEI, CEI, Heartland Institute, Marshall Institute etc are likely to consist largely of other right-wing fruitcakes, some of whom have degrees. The ones held by people like Seitz and Singer are likely to consist largely of 'industry friendly experts' like themselves. Robinson is no doubt plugged in to the very active US creationist PR networks and so on.

The likely result would be the sort of signatories you'd get if you asked the population of Free Republic to sign up, if they could plausibly claim some sort of scientific credential, which no doubt many of them can if a BSc in anything whatsoever is the criterion, although as such mailing lists are key assets for PR fronts, it's unlikely that we're going to get a chance to establish to what degree this is a factor, with any certainty.
 
No I didn't. I made exclusion of the low academic standards at US universities to comment that it should not be a surprise for certain US academics to rally behind the well known US government standpoint on this issue. f you take that academic standard into account, it is even quesitonable of those who have a degree in the field discussed could compete with others outside the US.
And by the way, a BA degree by no means makes you an expert in the chosen field.

Please try to read JC. I thought I was the one who has no clue about this language and I am the one who is dyslexic too.

salaam.

How do you make exclusion of something?

Seems those badly trained US experts are responsible for many of the technologies that you're using.

The petition includes PhDs. And I'd agree that a BA doesn't make you an expert.
 
So I come back, and there's two more pages of you guys shouting at each other about how right you are.

My point still stands. There continues to be disagreement about anthropogenic global warming, which isn't surprising, given the incredible complexity of the thing we're dealing with.
 
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