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Donald Trump, the road that might not lead to the White House!

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J Ed said:
If you want something to freakout about think about the fact that Trump is just the logical conclusion, with a few actually more reasonable policie thrown in, of policy positions held by every other single Republican candidate. Hillary Clinton is deeply unpopular and could easily lose to say Rubio or even Cruz who is undoubtedly much worse than Trump.
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Again I don't think so. If it's Clinton v Cruz/Trump, there's lots of waviering democrats who would vote for Clinton because 4 years of Trump/Cruz would be unthinkable, striking down of Roe V Wade/Climate change denial/Anti Immigration.

I know a Clinton Whitehouse would be business as usual but it's a infinitely better than a Cruz/Trump administration.
 
At lot of people are saying that there is no way Trump can get to the White House, I assume you were fairly confident he'd get as far as he has, or was that an impossibility too?
 
I think he'll win the nomination but not the white house. It's my understanding he needs more white votes than Reagan managed and in today's America that's extremely unlikely but then again politics is just so weird right now.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
At lot of people are saying that there is no way Trump can get to the White House, I assume you were fairly confident he'd get as far as he has, or was that an impossibility too?
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A lot of serious sober establishment commentators like Krugman called the nomination for Trump months ago.

If you think that there is any way that Trump can win, can you explain how he would get 70% of the white vote? That is more than both Reagan and FDR, it's just impossible.

All that being said - the amount of open racism from the Republican camp that a Trump nomination would unleash, along with the inevitable classist snobbery in response from US liberals will undoubtedly polarise even further an incredibly polarised country and also increase right-wing violent militancy.
 
J Ed said:
A lot of serious sober establishment commentators like Krugman called the nomination for Trump months ago.

If you think that there is any way that Trump can win, can you explain how he would get 70% of the white vote? That is more than both Reagan and FDR, it's just impossible.

All that being said - the amount of open racism from the Republican camp that a Trump nomination would unleash, along with the inevitable classist snobbery in response from US liberals will undoubtedly polarise even further an incredibly polarised country and also increase right-wing violent militancy.
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Really don't know if your figures are right or not. Fuck months ago though, one year ago, how many people seriously have Trump any chance at all?
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
At lot of people are saying that there is no way Trump can get to the White House, I assume you were fairly confident he'd get as far as he has, or was that an impossibility too?
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Alot of people assumed Bush' campaign would be alot more together and was the presumptive candidate. No one expected his campaign to fall apart so badly. Also no expected Sanders to do so well for so long.

But it's far from over right now Trump has 17 Candidates. He needs 1,237. 96% of all Delegates have yet to be picked. Because of the fucked up way the America system works, there are Super delegates (Governors, Senates, Party Snrs etc) who have large number of votes. If they reach the caucus and isn't still a 3 horse race between Trump/Cruz/Rubio I think Rubio will get the nomination because the party knows Trump isn't electable, Cruz is loathed by the party in general, and Rubio is the only one who could conceivable win. I also think if it reaches that point, and Trump isn't nominated, he may run as a 3rd party.

That's my guess.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Really don't know if your figures are right or not. Fuck months ago though, one year ago, how many people seriously have Trump any chance at all?
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New data suggest GOP 2016 nominee will need to win nearly half of Latino vote

Republicans could stem their reliance on Latino voters if the party's nominee performed better among whites -- as some GOP strategists are hoping to do.

But that strategy could force the candidate to favor more conservative positions on immigration and other issues for little gain, as history also shows that the party's attempt to grow its support among white voters has its limits.

The party's high-water mark with white voters came when Ronald Reagan won 66% of the white electorate in the 1984 landslide.

By 2012, Romney won 59% of white voters against President Obama.

If the GOP nominee won 60% of the white electorate in 2016, the candidate would need 42% of the Latino vote to win the White House, the research shows.

But if the candidate again topped out at 59% of white voters in 2016, he or she would need 47% of the Latino vote to make up the difference, the research said.
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The demographics of 2016 look brutal for Republicans

The modern GOP’s increasing reliance on a shrinking pool of older, white, and working-class voters — and its failure to attract nonwhite voters — would seem to present an enormous obstacle to the eventual Republican nominee. In 1980, when nonwhite voters were just 12 percent of the electorate, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and was elected in a landslide. But in 2012, when nonwhite voters accounted for 28 percent of the electorate, Mitt Romney took 59 percent of white voters — and lost the presidential race by 4 percentage points. Without a total brand makeover, how can Republicans expect to prevail with an even more diverse electorate in 2016?…


If the electorate evolves in sync with the Census Bureau’s estimates of the adult citizen population (admittedly, a big if), the white share of the electorate would drop from 72 percent in 2012 to 70 percent in 2016; the African-American share would remain stable at 13 percent; the Latino portion would grow from 10 percent to 11 percent; and the Asian/other segment would increase from 5 percent to 6 percent. If the 2012 election had been held with that breakdown (keeping all other variables stable), President Obama would have won by 5.4 percentage points rather than by his actual 3.85-point margin.

In addition, the group with which the GOP does best — whites without college degrees — is the only one poised to shrink in 2016. President Obama won just 36 percent of these voters in 2012, while 42 percent of white voters with college degrees pulled the lever for him. But if the electorate changes in line with census estimates, the slice of college-educated whites will grow by 1 point, to 37 percent of all voters, while the portion of whites without degrees will shrink 3 points, to just 33 percent of the total.

In other words, the GOP doesn’t just have a growing problem with nonwhites; it has a shrinkage problem as well, as conservative white seniors are supplanted by college-educated millennials with different cultural attitudes.
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Two things I'd like to know more about: voter registration and turnout. Obvs in some districts there has been a lot of manipulation of the former to deter non-GOP electors.
 
bluescreen said:
Two things I'd like to know more about: voter registration and turnout. Obvs in some districts there has been a lot of manipulation of the former to deter non-GOP electors.
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There's been some gerrymandering, but I don't think it's enough to carrry the election. Regan also swayed a huge portion of soft democrats and I cannot see Trump/Cruz swaying them.
 
bluescreen said:
You think it will be a less divided society with fewer Bundys?
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That's a negatory, good buddy, 10-4.

But at least it will be an interesting change of bullshit. The Republican name will probably linger on as the badge of a few pro-business "moderates", but it will struggle to keep up with a Trumpist radical right party.
 
Thanks 8den but that vid isn't available to view here in the UK. Your caption says it all, though.

On the other point, is there any research on whether Dems might stay at home if they thought they had an unacceptable choice? Or because they think their votes don't count? I can't imagine it myself, but there are articles out there alleging this tho I haven't yet tracked down any reliable research.
 
bluescreen said:
Thanks 8den but that vid isn't available to view here in the UK. Your caption says it all, though.

On the other point, is there any research on whether Dems might stay at home if they thought they had an unacceptable choice? Or because they think their votes don't count? I can't imagine it myself, but there are articles out there alleging this tho I haven't yet tracked down any reliable research.
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If it's Trump or Cruz, Dems will come out, to avoid the situation of either of them in the Whitehouse. I've spoken to a number of ex pats who won't vote unless it's to keep Trump or Cruz out of the White house.

Again Cruz's issue is that simply no one likes him McCain who's military career Trump derided, is actively campaigning against Cruz. Cruz has absolutely no friends among the senior members of the party. Meanwhile Trump has offended, Muslims, Blacks, and Hispanics, and there is no chance moderates will vote for him.
 
8den said:
Yeah he's going to be fucking hilarious when he has the worlds largest army at his disposal.

At this junction it's getting worrying. It's Rubio or Cruz.
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No chance he will win the White House, he will spill the republicans apart though!
 
The 3 most recent polls put Sanders as the one with the chance to beat any of the GOP. Hillary loses against them all except in one poll where she beats Trump by 1 point. Sanders beats them all with ~10 point lead.

They're conducting these polls after each primary/caucus I believe, several different outlets doing them. They seem well respected. But polls, etc. etc. And it's only "if the election were held today..."
 
Vintage Paw said:
The 3 most recent polls put Sanders as the one with the chance to beat any of the GOP. Hillary loses against them all except in one poll where she beats Trump by 1 point. Sanders beats them all with ~10 point lead.

They're conducting these polls after each primary/caucus I believe, several different outlets doing them. They seem well respected. But polls, etc. etc. And it's only "if the election were held today..."
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Whats your source for this?
 
Quinnipiac Poll (@QuinnipiacPoll) on Twitter

This has ongoing polling data.

For example:

Cbb-xZ5W8AAFWTv.jpg
 
Not sure what poll this is referencing - doesn't seem to be quite the same as the Quinnipiac one - I only have the screenshot:

CbtAiVNWAAAg4xv.jpg
 
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