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Donald Trump, the road that might not lead to the White House!

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I'm a twitter drone, btw. I'll be collecting shit like this right through to the election. I'll post what I find.
 
On the same general theme as Vintage Paw - from Doug Henwood on a Trump v Clinton scenario

Complacency of the Dems

According to the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), Hillary has an almost-90% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Anything can happen of course, but I wouldn’t put much money on the other side of that bet.

So what about November? As I write this, the IEM has Trump ahead of Rubio by 45–37. That may underestimate Trump’s chances, as people have been doing all along. Leaving that aside for now, I think that Dems are way too overconfident that Hillary can beat Trump in November. People are pissed and don’t want another president from Goldman Sachs.

Trump is a master taunter. It was amazing to watch him destroy Jeb (who was none too mighty to start with). Trump knows how to get under people’s skin, and could break Hillary psychologically. She’s brittle and has many potential lines of cleavage, personal and political. She’s a nervous, error-prone campaigner who prefers sticking to a script (which is why she hasn’t had a press conference or an informal chat with reporters in over two months). Trump could go after her emails and the shady business of the Clinton Foundation in ways that Sanders never has, for fear of starring in a GOP ad in the fall.

Trump is relentlessly vicious. As he said in his South Carolina victory speech, “There’s nothing easy about running for president, I can tell you. It’s tough, it’s nasty, it’s mean, it’s vicious, it’s beautiful.” A debate between the two of them could be a remarkable spectacle, though it would hold glum prospects for humanity.
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I still don't buy it, I don't see how you get past the demographic issue but I do think it could be a lot tighter than the establishment think.
 
I think the main point is that independent voters outnumber registered dems or repubs, and they overwhelmingly prefer Sanders to Clinton, and will also prefer Trump to Clinton.
 
Of course, we're still early on in the primaries. There are still rumblings that Rubio will come through. If he does, a lot of those who balk at Trump will fall in line behind him. Clinton consistently does worse against Rubio, against Cruz, against even Kasich for goodness sake, than she does against Trump. Sanders consistently beats them all.
 
Of course, all we can really hope for is that Trump goes for that 3rd party run, or Bloomberg does. Although on the latter I'm not certain how it might harm the Dems in the case of a Trump nomination, more than it might harm the GOP. But certainly, polling has just been released that suggests over 60% of Trump supporters will follow him if he strikes out as a 3rd party candidate. That's an automatic win for the Dems, regardless of their candidate.
 
Vintage Paw said:
I think the main point is that independent voters outnumber registered dems or repubs, and they overwhelmingly prefer Sanders to Clinton, and will also prefer Trump to Clinton.
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And you reckon they will vote? This is what bothers me about this, the possibility of people not voting because they don't think it will make a difference (see above).
 
Hmmmm I'm really skeptically about Polling data this far out. For example Trump's unfavourables within the GOP are running at 48%
 
bluescreen said:
And you reckon they will vote? This is what bothers me about this, the possibility of people not voting because they don't think it will make a difference (see above).
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It's a very unscientific poll but I know more than one ex pat has told me that they're sitting this out unless

A) Sanders is the nomination.

B) It's Trump V Clinton, and then they'll vote Clinton.
 
Vintage Paw said:
Of course, all we can really hope for is that Trump goes for that 3rd party run, or Bloomberg does. Although on the latter I'm not certain how it might harm the Dems in the case of a Trump nomination, more than it might harm the GOP. But certainly, polling has just been released that suggests over 60% of Trump supporters will follow him if he strikes out as a 3rd party candidate. That's an automatic win for the Dems, regardless of their candidate.
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or a couple of bombs wipe out all the main candidates, and vermin supreme has to try and find 300million ponies
 
Vintage Paw said:
I think the main point is that independent voters outnumber registered dems or repubs, and they overwhelmingly prefer Sanders to Clinton, and will also prefer Trump to Clinton.
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Its very unscientific I don't think the independents who would vote for Trump would also vote for Sanders and vice versa.

BTW who are you following on twitter VP and whats your username?
 
Me.

I've got twitter diarrhea, be warned.

And I agree, this far out it's impossible to say for sure. These polls are just "if the election was held today" and are useful to see trends if for nothing else.

I'm not so certain I agree about the Sanders-Trump crossover support, though. There's a lot of weird stuff going on here.

I've seen some say if Sanders doesn't win they'll vote GOP because they hate Clinton. I've seen GOPers say if Trump wins they'll vote Dem, regardless of the candidate. I've seen data about the Sanders-Trump crossover support, suggesting it's real. This was a while back, I very much doubt I'd find that data now but I'm sure a google search would pull up something on the subject. Obviously it doesn't apply to all voters, but the thinking process is that both represent a break with the establishment, both are straight talking, both lack career politics polish, and so on. Now, we'd not use that as a basis for who to vote for, but some people do. How many is the question. Anecdotal accounts (I know) suggest at the very least Trump support could pass to Sanders (a fraction anyway) but not to Clinton, and potentially the same in the other direction.

Lots of ifs, buts, maybes, I know. But that's all there is at this point.
 
8den said:
Hmmmm I'm really skeptically about Polling data this far out. For example Trump's unfavourables within the GOP are running at 48%
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Polling people on hypotheticals should always be viewed with caution. I think you can certainly take the fact that Clinton is not a particularly popular candidate from those polls but trying to make an argument beyond that I'd be skeptical.
 
Vintage Paw said:
Me.

I've got twitter diarrhea, be warned.

And I agree, this far out it's impossible to say for sure. These polls are just "if the election was held today" and are useful to see trends if for nothing else.

I'm not so certain I agree about the Sanders-Trump crossover support, though. There's a lot of weird stuff going on here.

I've seen some say if Sanders doesn't win they'll vote GOP because they hate Clinton. I've seen GOPers say if Trump wins they'll vote Dem, regardless of the candidate. I've seen data about the Sanders-Trump crossover support, suggesting it's real. This was a while back, I very much doubt I'd find that data now but I'm sure a google search would pull up something on the subject. Obviously it doesn't apply to all voters, but the thinking process is that both represent a break with the establishment, both are straight talking, both lack career politics polish, and so on. Now, we'd not use that as a basis for who to vote for, but some people do. How many is the question. Anecdotal accounts (I know) suggest at the very least Trump support could pass to Sanders (a fraction anyway) but not to Clinton, and potentially the same in the other direction.

Lots of ifs, buts, maybes, I know. But that's all there is at this point.
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Added to twatter

If is Trump/Sanders if nothing else it'll be the most interesting election in a generation.
 
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frogwoman said:
Am i the only one more worried about the other two, especially cruz?
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Cruz is truly frightening. David Brooks, conservative NY Times writer on Cruz....
The Brutalism of Ted Cruz
In 1997, Michael Wayne Haley was arrested after stealing a calculator from Walmart. This was a crime that merited a maximum two-year prison term. But prosecutors incorrectly applied a habitual offender law. Neither the judge nor the defense lawyer caught the error and Haley was sentenced to 16 years.

Eventually, the mistake came to light and Haley tried to fix it. Ted Cruz was solicitor general of Texas at the time. Instead of just letting Haley go for time served, Cruz took the case to the Supreme Court to keep Haley in prison for the full 16 years.

...Cruz’s speeches are marked by what you might call pagan brutalism. There is not a hint of compassion, gentleness and mercy. Instead, his speeches are marked by a long list of enemies, and vows to crush, shred, destroy, bomb them.

Cruz lays down an atmosphere of apocalyptic fear. America is heading off “the cliff to oblivion.” After one Democratic debate he said, “We’re seeing our freedoms taken away every day, and last night was an audition for who would wear the jackboot most vigorously.”
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/12/opinion/the-brutalism-of-ted-cruz.html
 
If Trump secures the nomination, he'd only be one well-timed terrorist atrocity away from the Whitehouse (remember the improbable popularity of Bush II?). There'd be a lot to gain for ISIS if they timed things to boost his corner.
 
Dogsauce said:
If Trump secures the nomination, he'd only be one well-timed terrorist atrocity away from the Whitehouse (remember the improbable popularity of Bush II?). There'd be a lot to gain for ISIS if they timed things to boost his corner.
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That can be said of virtually every Republican candidate
 
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