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What impact are the Welfare Reforms having on Brixton?

The Office for National Statistics says London's population will rise (from 7.9m in 2010) to 9m in eight years (2020) and to 10m in 2030.

It's only a prediction (and could be too high if the govt succeeds in cutting immigration) but I would be amazed if that level of demand for housing does not influence prices.

Articles in the newspaper today about the government limiting people's right to settle in the country from 2016 unless they are earning more than £35, 000. That should go well.
 
What explains the lack of a price crash is pretty simply the fact that the government cannot afford to formulate any policy that could have an adverse effect on the housing market. Our economy rests on the notional value of that housing. Disturb that, and the whole house of cards becomes unstable, in a way that would likely be worse than the "banking crisis" because it's effects wouldn't be mostly abstract to "the general public".

This is the crux of the problem. Housing is not about just about housing people. Which is what it should be about.
 
Good article here analysing all the arguments for and against. Looking at the research that has been done the article summarises:


The government's own impact assessment and academic research makes clear that people will be forced to move because of the changes and central parts of London will to a certain extent become the preserve of the rich with more lower income people congregating in cheaper areas of the capital. "Social cleansing" is a strong term that some readers have objected to. But there is some evidence of a trend consistent with it. As the LSE academics put it:
We conclude that the reforms will intensify the spatial concentration of disadvantage in the city, and increase the segregation of poor and better-off households within London.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/...ly-curtis/2012/apr/24/housing-housing-benefit
 
And this section of the article:

I've been recommended research by Alex Fenton of the London School of Economics who researches housing policy and poverty. This researchhe did last year on the reforms with the conclusion that most inner London boroughs would become "almost entirely unaffordable" by 2016:
We find that the changes to be introduced in 2011 will immediately reduce the proportion of London neighbourhoods affordable to LHA claimants from 75% to 51%. This falls further to 36% by 2016 as a result of the measures' longer-term effects. Our estimates of current neighbourhood affordability are strongly correlated with current observed concentrations of LHA claimants, giving credence to the predictive value of the approach. The estimates for 2016 are highly sensitive to the future relationship between CPI inflation and nominal rent inflation, emphasising that this is a key uncertainty about the long-term effects of the proposed reforms.
Most inner London boroughs are likely to become almost entirely unaffordable to low-income tenants on LHA by 2016. The large clusters of neighbourhoods in outer East, South and West London which our model finds to remain affordable in 2016 are likely to house increasing numbers of low-income tenants as a result of the reforms. The areas which remain affordable are characterised by high rates of multiple deprivation and unemployment among the existing population. We conclude that the reforms will intensify the spatial concentration of disadvantage in the city, and increase the segregation of poor and better-off households within London

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/...ly-curtis/2012/apr/24/housing-housing-benefit
 
"Shelter’s RentWatch reports use VOA data, derived from a sample of over 500,000 rents in England, including over 60,000 in London. Our London report found that rents increased above RPI inflation, and particularly above wage inflation – for outer Londoners, rent inflation was three times as high as wage inflation."

See here for graph showing how real wages lag behind rent increases in London:

http://blog.shelter.org.uk/2012/04/when-you-are-told-your-rent-increase-is-not-a-rent-increase-that/
 
"his link comes to me via Twitter with the news that Newham also approached Macclesfield. In it Tim Pinder, chief executive of Peaks & Plains Housing Trust, describes Newham's approach as a "begging letter" and writes:
With feelings of disgust, I promptly deposited the letter in our recycle bin.
Recession, or no recession, that Britain in the 21st century should have come to this, a nation unable to offer a decent, civilised, caring response to some of its most vulnerable citizens, left me feeling angry. The idea had all the hallmarks of one of those responses to the tired old clichéd injunctions to "think outside the box", presumably not by front line staff or indeed anyone dealing directly with vulnerable housing applicants

from:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/...ly-curtis/2012/apr/24/housing-housing-benefit
 
Basically the Guardian article shows that Governments argument that benefit caps will make private landlords reduce rents is not applicable to London.

Also that a lot of private landlords will not take on Housing Benefit claimants anyway.
 
I don't like housing benefit going to those buy-to-let landlords who accept it.

With rents soaring in London - even though landlords' mortgage costs are not - it's no surprise the government wants to try to reduce the HB bill.
 
The article did state that the Guardian had contacted other boroughs in London to see if they were asking authorities outside London to take people. Lambeth said it was not doing this at the moment.

On the radio this morning a single parent ( her husband had died) was interviewed. She had received letter from Council ( Waltham Forest i think) who had offered her housing in Walsall in the Midlands. They said if she did not accept it they had discharged any duties to her. As she said all her relatives are here in London and her child likes her local school. She did not know anyone up North. She thought the local authority was doing this as it was easy way out.
 
The article did state that the Guardian had contacted other boroughs in London to see if they were asking authorities outside London to take people. Lambeth said it was not doing this at the moment.

On the radio this morning a single parent ( her husband had died) was interviewed. She had received letter from Council ( Waltham Forest i think) who had offered her housing in Walsall in the Midlands. They said if she did not accept it they had discharged any duties to her. As she said all her relatives are here in London and her child likes her local school. She did not know anyone up North. She thought the local authority was doing this as it was easy way out.

She/he, but yes. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17829163
 
Guardian: Newham council has approached a Stoke-on-Trent housing association asking them to take 500 families who have been priced out of their area by rising rents and the government's new cap on housing benefits.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/...ly-curtis/2012/apr/24/housing-housing-benefit

This "decanting" stuff has been tried before.

In the 1920s we had the philathropic concept of the "Garden City" - Letchworth, Welwyn Garden City.

In the late 1940's this idea was adopted by the LCC as "London Overspill" - Harlow, Stevenage, Basildon, Hemel Hempstead. Large LCC estates were also built in more remote locations like Thetford (Norfolk) and Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill (Suffolk) Peterborough (Cambridgeshire) and many more. THEN factories, offices and other employment generating activities were "co-located" with the housing. NOW no housing is being built except for profit, and employment is being cut back.

Compare Mary Beard's description of the situation in Rome. A large feral population being kept alive by hand-outs and entertained by the state. A protected upper class in gated accommodation. All served by tradesmen largely brought in from abroad.

Thatcherism with or without an empire is not an attractive thing.
 
This "decanting" stuff has been tried before.

And in North Devon too.

Ilfracombe, Bideford and Barnstaple had large number of Merseysiders in the 90s, apparently relocated by council agreement.

Liverpool may have done better out of the deal because their exiles kept the sleepy magistrates' courts in Bideford and Barnstaple very busy indeed.
 
Compare Mary Beard's description of the situation in Rome. A large feral population being kept alive by hand-outs and entertained by the state. A protected upper class in gated accommodation. All served by tradesmen largely brought in from abroad.

Thatcherism with or without an empire is not an attractive thing.

At least the Roman Emperors had the sense to keep the people fed and entertained.
 
And in North Devon too.

Ilfracombe, Bideford and Barnstaple had large number of Merseysiders in the 90s, apparently relocated by council agreement.

Liverpool may have done better out of the deal because their exiles kept the sleepy magistrates' courts in Bideford and Barnstaple very busy indeed.

Did they provide translation services? I come from South West and its totally different accent.

Wouldnt be so sure the native population down there are that law abiding. Sheep would "disappear" Ha ha:D
 
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/...ctly-what-they-were-supposed-to-201204245154/

"THE 2012 Olympics have been declared a resounding success as the first busload of undesirables was banished from East London.

olstad250.jpg

Who said you could look at it?
Organisers said the event was at least four months ahead of schedule in making the east of the city as unaffordable as the west to people who are either unemployed or have a proper, actual job.

In preparation for the post-Olympic influx of six-figure bullshit consultants, Newham Council has now begun herding its substandard social housing tenants into sorting pens before despatching them to a corner of the UK more suited to their third-rate bone structure and beastly televisual inclinations.

Sebastian Coe, Lord of the Olympics, said: "The cleansing has begun, even before the first javelin has been javelled.

"I would like to award Newham Council a gold medal. They are the Fatima Whitbread of enforced gentrification."

London mayor Boris Johnson added: "We can either have a city wiped clean of low-income troglodytes or we can spend millions encircling London's hard-working neighbourhoods with 14ft high security fences.

"This will not destroy the social fabric of the east end it will just make it the sort of social fabric one could imagine sharing witty remarks with at a summer drinks party."

Meanwhile, the first consignment of untermenschen stumbled from their bus, blinking and confused, to be faced with the harsh reality of Stoke-on-Trent.

Emma Bradford, a single mother of two, said: "Fuck
 
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Devon. Plymouth to be exact which is a lot different from the rest of it.

Plymouth is positively cosmopolitan in comparison to my isolated upbringing near the source of the Tamar.

We used to make the 40-mile journey to Plymouth to experience actual shops, car parks and fast food.
 
quote="CH1, post: 11117488, member: 12717"]This "decanting" stuff has been tried before.

In the 1920s we had the philathropic concept of the "Garden City" - Letchworth, Welwyn Garden City.

In the late 1940's this idea was adopted by the LCC as "London Overspill" - Harlow, Stevenage, Basildon, Hemel Hempstead. Large LCC estates were also built in more remote locations like Thetford (Norfolk) and Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill (Suffolk) Peterborough (Cambridgeshire) and many more. THEN factories, offices and other employment generating activities were "co-located" with the housing. NOW no housing is being built except for profit, and employment is being cut back.[/quote]

The other difference being that people moved to new towns, garden cities and new 'overspill estates' were moving from very overcrowded and sub-standard 'slum' housing. That's not the case now.
 
Plymouth is positively cosmopolitan in comparison to my isolated upbringing near the source of the Tamar.

We used to make the 40-mile journey to Plymouth to experience actual shops, car parks and fast food.

That really is backwoods. Yes Plymouth was always very different to rest of Devon.

And real Pasties or Oggies.
 
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