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The Islamic state

On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 120, Feb 14, 2017
The Islamic State launched more attacks upon liberated east Mosul. 24 IS fighters who crossed the Tigris River into southeast Mosul at night were stopped by members of the Golden Division, and were eventually killed after a gun battle. Mortar fire killed 1 civilian and wounded 2 more. The government has been forming local Hashd groups to help secure the city. A commander of one such unit told Voice of America that the insurgents were attempting river attacks almost every night. The same report quoted a soldier who said drone strikes were wounding up to 20 people per day. Surveillance drones were also constantly flying over the city trying to sport targets for mortar fire. There is still the threat of sleeper cells as well. East Mosul remains insecure as a result of these constant attacks.

Adding to the problem is unprofessionalism by some Iraqi forces (ISF). Shafaaq News for instance reported that men in military uniforms and riding in a military vehicle robbed a car store in east Mosul. Army and Federal Police have also been accused of looting and burning homes, and committing some abuses in the city as well.
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120 days in and IS still launching attacks.
 
On Defence One Take Off the Pentagon’s Gloves in the ISIS War? Not So Fast.
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We can’t yet know or predict the extent to which the Trump administration intends to depart from Obama’s directives and policies on civilian casualties. Based on the memorandum and his public comments, Trump seems to be betting that, given the choice, the military will return to some lower threshold of self-restraint if released from “political” concerns over civilian harm. The Pentagon should instead take the opportunity to keep existing protections in place, and call the president’s attention to the fact that policies intended to reduce civilian harm didn’t arise out of elite Washington think tanks or academia; they arose from the military’s long-held assessment of their strategic benefits—assessments based on hard-won battlefield experience, as many researchers, including Luke Hartig, former senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council under Obama, have pointed out.

Retired Gens. David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal, as commanders of the Afghanistan War, set a higher standard for avoiding civilian harm than what the Geneva Conventions required. It wasn’t just because it was the right thing to do. Evidence showed that doing so could reduce local support for the Taliban, and over time they figured out ways to do it without compromising their effectiveness or exposing U.S. forces to greater risk of harm.
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I do recall McChrystal's methods not being popular with the rank and file. Not killing the voter may (or may not) fit with mission objectives. It doesn't always gel with force protection. We also should not obscure that quite a lot of non-combatants still get killed accidentally even if CENTCOM won't admit it to most of the blots on their copybook.
 

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Bruce Hoffman, director of the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, warned that any type of cooperation between the two groups would escalate the threat of terrorism worldwide, particularly in western Europe and the United States.

"Al Qaeda's presence in Syria should be regarded as just as dangerous and even more pernicious than that of ISIS," Hoffman testified before the House Armed Services Committee.

"This is the product of [al Qaeda leader Ayman] al-Zawahiri's strategy of letting ISIS take all the heat and absorb all the blows from the coalition raid against it while al Qaeda quietly rebuilds its military strength and basks in its paradoxical new cachet as ‘moderate extremists' in contrast to the unconstrained ISIS," he continued.

Hoffman cited the experience of American journalist Theo Padnos, who was held hostage for two years by al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front. Writing for the New York Times in October 2014, Padnos relayed that the group's senior officials "were inviting Westerners to the jihad in Syria not so much because they needed more foot soldiers — they didn’t — but because they want to teach the Westerners to take the struggle into every neighborhood and subway station back home."

The strategy would mirror ISIS's success in carving out jihadist cells across Western Europe. The National Counterterrorism Center affirmed in August that ISIS had become "fully operational" in 18 countries since the United States launched its campaign to defeat the terrorist group. The number marked a nearly three-fold increase over a two-year span.

Though al Qaeda's global presence has also expanded over the past few years, Hoffman said al-Zawahiri deliberately kept the group from increasing its external operations like ISIS. He predicted al Qaeda would continue to "wait in the wings" as the U.S.-led coalition focuses on destroying ISIS before attempting to merge or take over the group's external capabilities.

"That would escalate this conflict onto a different level," he testified.
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Oh good.
 

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It happens that President Obama left behind a detailed plan, one to take Raqqa. It has spawned a very Washington row. One of Obama’s national security team told me they had prepared a ‘four- or five-page memo’ on the plan for Trump’s staff, along with a ‘voluminous bundle’ of background material. ‘When they looked at it, their reaction was, “This is too complicated. The President won’t understand it.” ’ Obama’s people leaked to the New York Times that President Trump could read only short documents ‘with lots of pictures’. Trump’s people leaked to the Washington Post that ‘Obama’s approach was so risk-averse it was almost certain to fail…Obama sweated the smallest details of US military operations, often to the point of inaction.’

The defense secretary, General Mattis, is examining the Obama plan. Its most important provision calls for the Kurdish forces besieging Raqqa to be armed by the United States. This would enrage Turkey, which fears the emergence of a Kurdish state more than the survival of Isis. The Kurdish militia in Syria, the YPG, is close to the Kurdish militia in Turkey, the PKK (some would say they are the same thing). Turkey, the US (and Britain) all classify the PKK as a terrorist organisation. In fighting Isis, the US is backing two opposing sides in a regional conflict, the Turks and the Kurds. Obama’s preferred solution was to let the Turkish army take Raqqa — but the Turkish army is still 120 miles away. Ankara’s promises of troops have come to nothing so many times that US officials call these forces ‘Turkish unicorns’. President Trump may have to arm the Kurds.

The alternative would be American ground forces. If that seems unthinkable, someone at the Department of Defense may be thinking it. A source — outside the Pentagon but talking to the military planners — told me the use of American tanks and infantry was being considered to break Raqqa’s defences. There is no official confirmation of that and, if true, it would be politically explosive. Far more likely is another option apparently under consideration: sending in more special forces and giving them more freedom to operate. There are currently some 200 Navy Seals and Army Delta Force troops helping the Kurds and a smaller Arab contingent.

During the election, candidate Trump promised: ‘Isis will be gone… and they’ll be gone quickly. Believe me.’ President Trump, a senior civil servant told me, wants ‘a big win over Isis within 90 days’. The official feared this meant ‘carpet bombing’ Raqqa and Mosul. Trump has given people reason to think this. ‘Isis… I would bomb the shit out of ‘em,’ he told a rally in Fort Dodge, Iowa, during the primaries. ‘I would just bomb those suckers.’ This became a consistent Trump campaign theme. One result of the Mattis review might be to relax the rules of engagement governing airstrikes.
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An airpower advocate goes onto claim it would be easy to crush IS if unconstrained but I recall JSOC chasing AQI round Iraq with JDAMs with counterproductive results.

Given a 90 day timeframe and the Turks threatening to take Manbij off the PKK I doubt anything short of a substantial US ground force could deliver for Trump. It might then leave but how Raqqa and Mosul are held has always been the tricky part.
 
On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 121, Feb 15, 2017
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Agence France Presse called people in IS occupied west Mosul who are having a far worse time than the east. A mother said that her family was trying to stock up on supplies in anticipation of the coming battle, but they didn’t have much to save. She said that her family was reduced to eating only once a day because they had such little food. Most stores in the west are empty, and those that do have goods are selling them for exorbitant prices. Water, heating and cooking fuel, and electricity are in very short supply as well. One man said he was burning old clothes because he had no gas for his furnace or stove. Insurgents are searching homes looking for people with cell phones that they suspect are being used to pass on information to the government. Those caught with them are being executed. Many homes along the Tigris have been taken over by the Islamists to be turned into fighting positions. IS is also digging more tunnels and carving out holes in walls between buildings to facilitate the movement of their men so they wouldn’t be exposed to overhead observation or air strikes. The U.N. and others have warned that west Mosul is suffering a humanitarian crisis and these interviews were more evidence of that.
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On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 122, Feb 16, 2017
There were several Islamic State attacks upon east Mosul, while the Iraqi forces (ISF) were hunting down Islamic State sleeper cells. A drone hit Rashidiya in the north of the city wounding three people. Rockets hit two other neighborhoods leaving 4 dead and 12 injured. A suicide bomber was killed before he could set off his device, while another was arrested near a mosque. In the outer east three neighborhoods were closed off as the ISF conducted raids and searches looking for IS fighters. A few days ago an Iraqi general said it would take 30 days to hunt down all the sleeper cells in east Mosul. That’s yet to be seen. In the meantime IS has picked up its attacks upon the liberated half of the city with not only indirect fire, but suicide and car bombs and infiltrations as well.

IS also attacked the Hashd in the Tal Afar district out in the west. Insurgents continue to throw themselves against the Hashd in that western area with nothing to show for it except a lot of dead men.
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Also reports of Hashd/ISF abuses.
 
On Musings On Iraq Violence In Iraq Feb 8-14, 2017
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Diyala is another area where the insurgents have re-grouped. The number of incidents there has gone up in the last month, but they are still at a low level. During the week there were four shootings and 4 IEDs leading to 18 deaths and 12 injured. There are several suspected militant bases in places like the Hamrin Mountains, Abu Saida, around Baladrooz, and others. IS however, mostly uses Diyala to feed fighters and explosives into Baghdad although a few times a month there are mass casualty bombings in the province itself.

Most of the violence in Kirkuk remained executions by the Islamic State as it attempts to maintain control over the Hawija district. A total of 23 people were killed by the group during the week. There were also two attacks inside the city of Kirkuk. In total 26 people died and 2 were wounded in the province. Hawija is a major source of instability in northern Iraq. IS has been using it to funnel men into neighboring Salahaddin and Diyala.

Even though east Mosul was liberated a month ago the city is becoming more violent. There were a total of 95 incidents in Ninewa leading to 315 dead and 240 wounded. Almost all those casualties occurred within Mosul. IS executed 99 people in west Mosul, and Coalition air strikes were blamed for 5 deaths and 7 injured. Most of the rest came in east Mosul due to 1 suicide car bomb, 3 car bombs, 6 suicide bombers, along with daily mortar, rocket and drone strikes. While more people are returning to the city now, several hundred people are still leaving each day as well to escape these constant attacks.

Salahaddin officials have been complaining about IS cells operating in the eastern districts. The security forces have repeatedly gone through those areas, but have never rooted out the insurgents. In the last two weeks attacks have remained small in the governorate with a mix of shootings and bombings. A car bomb did go off during the week in Tikrit, another sign that IS has been able to re-infiltrate into liberated areas across the country.
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IS persisting elsewhere.
 
I think we're in full-on endgame for IS as a territory-holding entity.

The SAA is on the march towards Palmyra, the Turks and rebel allies now entering Al-Bab, the SDF within spitting distance of Raqqa city, the Iraqi army launching the assault on west Mosul. IS can't hope to win a single one of these fights. Raqqa might take a bit longer yet but I think total collapse is very close.
 
Flavour said:
I think we're in full-on endgame for IS as a territory-holding entity.

The SAA is on the march towards Palmyra, the Turks and rebel allies now entering Al-Bab, the SDF within spitting distance of Raqqa city, the Iraqi army launching the assault on west Mosul. IS can't hope to win a single one of these fights. Raqqa might take a bit longer yet but I think total collapse is very close.
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In Iraq where we are now corresponds with maybe 05 in the last Iraqi Sunni insurgency. By 08 AQI was down to maybe a thousand beards before going to ground in Mosul and elsewhere. Optimistic CIA estimates have IS at 20 times that size currently.

They may lose their big urban centres but still hold quite a lot of other territory and have a nasty habit of coming back in areas that were meant to be cleared. The ISF is overstretched in Anbar currently. The holding force arrangements for both Mosul and Raqqa look woefully inadequate.

One US General was saying maybe another two years and that may be optimistic.
 
On MEE US 'not in Iraq to seize anybody's oil', says defence secretary
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Trump has repeatedly said both while campaigning and since his election that America, whose troops occupied Iraq for eight years, should have grabbed Iraqi oil to help fund its war effort and to deprive the Islamic State group of a vital revenue source.

But Mattis, a retired Marine general who commanded troops during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, appeared to pour cold water on the comments.

"All of us in America have generally paid for gas and oil all along, and I am sure that we will continue to do so in the future," Mattis said.

"We are not in Iraq to seize anybody's oil," he said.
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Embarrassing that it even needing saying.
 
On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 125, Feb 19, 2017
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The insurgents were also facing continued resistance. IS accused people in west Mosul of being traitors for not answering their call to arms. The group has been forcibly drafting fighting aged men into its forces, but apparently few of them are reporting for duty. Three IS facilities were set on fire, and some of its patrols were also attacked. Iraqi flags were raised over three buildings in the Old City section of Mosul. IS conducted raids to try to find the culprits. For over a year now small groups of resistance fighters have been carrying out hit and run attacks upon the Islamic State in Mosul. These never posed a threat to the organization, but they showed that people were willing to confront the group, and were not all supporters of the Islamists as some people claimed.
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Mosul so far hasn't risen against IS either as some claimed it would. The slight resistance there's been looks more like groups doing just enough to maintain their dignity. IS runs a fearsome apparatus of repression that in some ways is a legacy of Saddam's Iraq. Baathist JRTN was reported to have a big base of support in Mosul but has been relatively passive. ISW predicts them making a comeback after IS is suppressed.
 

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In Iraq and Syria our researchers tracked 95 alleged casualty incidents during January – an increase of 126% from December. A total of 630 to 824 non-combatant deaths were claimed in these January incidents.

Airwars currently assesses 47 of these events as fairly reported. This means an incident has two or more credible sources, and the Coalition also reported strikes in the near vicinity of an incident. Between 254 and 369 civilians are presently assessed as likely having been killed in these incidents, compared with a range of 134 and 187 such deaths in December. This represents a 90% rise in the minimum number of civilians likely killed from December.
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Likely get higher as the Iraqi's move into West Mosul.
 
What are people's thoughts on the 'deradicalisation' and allowing back of these ISIS volunteers who have done so much damage to the region? Some Scandinavian countries have been trying this, not sure to what effectiveness. The people still with ISIS now are hardly the initial naive volunteers though.

I worry this is a betrayal of progressive politics in the region and will embolden reactionary political Islam in Europe having the 'troops' back. Personally I hope the Kurds etc kill and jail every single last one of them. No forgiverness. But knowing this will surely make them fight till the death etc
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
He's quite a rum cove is that PissPigGranddad...
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I was vaguely aware of him before he went to Rojava. I just think it's amazing that despite going to Rojava, where he seems to be actually in the thick of battle, he still dedicates a lot of his time online to mocking liberals. Total dedication to the causes of both ridding the world of Daesh and posting.
 
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On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 126, Feb 20, 2017
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The ISF are going to open another front eventually with a crossing of the Tigris River led by the Golden Division. They are staging in the Palestine and Yarimjah neighborhoods in the southern tip of the eastern half of the city. They will likely connect with the police forces coming from the south. Much of the talk before the campaign re-started was of this river crossing across the Tigris. That led to the Islamic State fortifying riverbank. That now appears to have been a feint to distract the militants from where the real attack would come from, which is in the south.
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As I pointed up above a large water crossing under fire seemed a little bold.

Abadi telling tactical fibs to appease his political opposition about Coalition SF being increasing present in Mosul.
 
J Ed said:
I was vaguely aware of him before he went to Rojava. I just think it's amazing that despite going to Rojava, where he seems to be actually in the thick of battle, he still dedicates a lot of his time online to mocking liberals. Total dedication to the causes of both ridding the world of Daesh and posting.
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I think 'in the thick of battle' in reality is often standing guard at a checkpoint quite a long way from the fighting. Still dangerous mind, but a bit different.

He is quite funny, although I'm amazed he's still allowed access to the web. His constant mentioning how he/the YPG/Rojava are really nothing to do with the PKK/the mountains is some ongoing in-joke.
 
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