The 2014 moment / movement is over. What next?

[steeplejack]

I am posting this very well written analysis of the decline of the SNP and the profound crisis the independence movement now faces. The central conclusion of the article is that the 2014 movement is dead, killed by the crushing of internal democracy within the SNP, the Sturgeon personality cult, and the sell out of an on-paper "radical" party to the corporate lobby during Sturgeon's tenure.

The SNP has always been a party of contradictions but the article astutely lays out three of the key ones; 1. the promising of an Irish-style low tax economy with Scandianvian levels of public service; 2. the anti-nuclear stance brushing up against future membership of a nuclear alliance, NATO, in the parallel-universe reality where Scotland becomes indepoendent; 3. the using of the promise of another referendum s a rallying tactic at election time without any serious hard work being done on the thorny mechanisms of how that will actually work in practice, coupled with a failure to be honest about how tricky and potentially destabilising the process of independence negotiation and delivery wil be.

This thread could discuss the article for whoever can be bothered to read it, but also for discussing the emergence of what will be a new political reality in Scotland from the middle of 2026, with the party very likely to be a rump opposition in Holyrood following the next parlimantary elections. It might be a thread to take us up to those elections and the SNP's final Fred Dibnah moment.

I recognise that the author Jonathan Shafi hardly has a stellar political record himself, from his pisspoor failed attempt to shut down the Radical Indepoendence Campaign, to his involvement as a leading figure in Scotland's now-defunct clowncar SYRIZA equivalent, RISE (2015-16). Fortunately he seems a much better analyst than strategist. I think it's a really insightful piece.

 

[geminisnake]

The SNP never were and never will be the independence movement, I'm not sure why people think they were/are. I know a lot of Indy supporters that have never and will never vote for them, I will try and read the article tomorrow but I think Shafi is a grade A twat tbh.

 

[Ĝasper]

Jim Sillar's letter after the election was also full of hard truths

 

[Ĝasper]

'Someone has to tell the truth': Jim Sillars letter to SNP members

You will not like what I have to say. But someone has to tell you the truth.

www.heraldscotland.com

 

[danny la rouge]

The SNP never were and never will be the independence movement, I'm not sure why people think they were/are.

Well, because no alternative organising structure emerged.

Indeed, as the article says:

“the SNP leadership had no interest in establishing the infrastructure around the independence cause required to generate the energy, ideas and organisation to attempt such a manoeuvre. Instead, the party had sought to cannibalise the movement of 2014, centring its hopes and ambitions primarily through one person: Nicola Sturgeon. It is worth recalling how embedded the cult of personality became”.

Whatever you think of Shafi (and I think he’s a Trot grifter), that is correct.

 

[Ĝasper]

It was difficult to disagree with anything in the article. I thought a point about the media was interesting. The media barely covered any internal problems within the SNP. Faithful independence geeks knew anyway, eg from social media, the National, or personal involvement. However all of a sudden after Sturgeon stood down, the media was covering the SNP problems in great detail, which gave the idea of a sudden combustion, rather than a gradual breakdown. Maybe if there'd been more scrutiny on the SNP prior to that, for things like the leadership snubbing the conference floor decisions, then the leadership would have been forced to be more cooperative and less selfish. But as it happened, they thought that only the faithful hardcore independence supporters noticed or understand these issues, and that they could therefore get away with it. That's either a lesson in unionist machavellianism, or more likely i think the need for better Scottish media.

Its also the case that people would have noticed changes in real life though, for example the reduction of city speed limits from 30 to 20mph (why not just ride on snailback?). Or I see the mess of the bottle return scheme implemented in Ireland, and thank God it wasn't implemented in Scotland too. I won't mention crossdressing prisoners. Well perhaps these things are more blamed on the Greens, who were so bitter that they decided to split the vote and deny SNP a bunch of seats in Westminster.

I don't think the results of the 2024 Scottish election can be a foregone conclusion though. Its a different election system, so the SNP will likely do well. They might come first, second or third.

But yeah, a new era has been entered. I personally think, electoral politics is futile. I would love to see huge numbers of people switch their energies and efforts over instead to a cultural nationalism/revival. (music, language, literature, sport, spirituality...). Part of this would involve looking back historically at the independence movement, and popularising the politics of people like Cunningham Graham, Ruaraidh Erskine, John Maclean and co, Margo Macdonald.

 

[danny la rouge]

I personally think, electoral politics is futile.

 

[steeplejack]

The SNP have had a tragic week politicially

*cancelling rail fare concessions
*cancelling free bus travel for asylum seekers
*means testing winter fuel allowances
*releasing lots of glossy PR about Scottish culture but diastrously underfunding it, causing Creative Scotland to withdraw open funding for artists- something that will disproportionately affect working class, disabled, freelance artists. In future you'll need to be middle class or from money to be an artist as the government does not care;
*back-channelling Israeli representatives
*John Mason

It's a moth-ridden collapsing shop dummy of a government. The SNP will be eviscerated in 2026 and deservedly so. Labour unfortunately are becoming the default "there's no one else" alternative that the SNP have been for the last ten years or so at exactly the wrong time for devolution. Of course the SNP will (rightly) blame Rachel Reeves' new austerity budget that's coming. But is anyone listening anymore? Just in this week alone they have alienated many groups of voters who were integral to the party's electoral successes in the last deace- old folk, cultural workers, new Scots, those reliant on public transport, those sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians (the vast majority in Scotland).

Swinney is looking to re-launch and re-focus but that exercise requires a certain level of political calm and Swinney and the top leadership just can't buy that presenty. They’ve had a terrible week.

 

[Ĝasper]

The SNP have had a tragic week politicially
...
*releasing lots of glossy PR about Scottish culture but diastrously underfunding it, causing Creative Scotland to withdraw open funding for artists- something that will disproportionately affect working class, disabled, freelance artists. In future you'll need to be middle class or from money to be an artist as the government does not care

Have you got a "greatest hits" of Creative Scotland funded releases?

I vaguely recall seeing the emblem before a few films. But also have the impression that it was largely a pot of money to give "jobs/cash to the boys" (SNP poster children like Alastair Heather), or else to force any artists/applicants who wanted money from Creative Scotland to act as conformists to the CS boss Angus Robertson and the SNP regime.

I searched Creative Scotland on YouTube trying to find their films, but found instead videos taking the p*ss out of them.

 

[steeplejack]

Have you got a "greatest hits" of Creative Scotland funded releases?

I vaguely recall seeing the emblem before a few films. But also have the impression that it was largely a pot of money to give "jobs/cash to the boys" (SNP poster children like Alastair Heather), or else to force any artists/applicants who wanted money from Creative Scotland to act as conformists to the CS boss Angus Robertson and the SNP regime.

I searched Creative Scotland on YouTube trying to find their films, but found instead videos taking the p*ss out of them.

No, but it's not really about a "greatest hits" list. Creative Scotland funding is vital for authors to publish a first book, for artists to continue to develop their practice, for theatres to continue to grow and develop audiences for new work. The sum total of arts funding has had immeasurable impact beyond any "Greatest Hits" list which will vary from consumer to consumer. Simply, without the Open Fund, working class and precarious creatives are priced out of creative activity, and creativity in whatever medium becomes exclusively a privately funded niche middle and upper class activity. If culture's meant to be for all and a key part of national life then at least some funding has to be available, otherwise it is a private hobby of little interest to those beyond circules immediately involved. To say nothing of entry fees having to be introduced by National Institutions (Scot National Gallery) to make up for the loss of public funding, further pricing out those who don't have the means to pay.

There's been such a protest since the announcement of the closure of the Open Fund (a petition has attracted in the region of 50,000 signatures) anyway that Swinney found £6.6 million yesterday to enable CS to re-establish the Open Fund beyond this year, so that's good news. However, Scotland's fragile cultural ecology remains critically endangered. Whilst this money is welcome, the Scottish government has prmised to double investment in the creative economy repeatedly, yet failed to deliver.

There's also a bizarre twitter campaign by right wing populists to shut down Creative Scotland and make culture entirely self-funding. Personally I think CS should be broken up into regional funders and decisions about cultural spend made much more locally. The debate about how cultural funding is disbursed is for another day, though.

 

[steeplejack]

The SNP-Labour shadowboxing bout is fast becoming like an Old Firm game for those not involved in that you want both sides to lose.

I knew New Labour 2.0s honeymoon would be short but I didn't expect it to be quite this short.

Sickeningly the discussion of this will be on who of these two parties can most plausibly avoid most of the blame for it.