Revival of UKIP post-Chequers?

[J Ed]

Some interesting post-Chequers polling

Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by five points from 3% last month to 8%.

Are we going to see a re-founding of UKIP? IIRC their main financial backer, Banks, has washed his hands of the party so even if a large chunk of the UKIP to Tory vote want to return to UKIP, will they have anyone to vote for?

 

[marty21]

Since the referendum UKIP have split into a fair few factions, the anti Muslim lot have gone off to For Britain , I think Bolton started another one but they seemed to have disappeared . There are probably other off-shoots too. Batten the currently bloke warming Farage's seat has gone all in with Tommy Robinson. Farage would have to come back for UKIP to have any impact, and he's going to need another by-election to get any leverage and if he becomes a 9 time? loser, they will be finally kaput!

 

[Duncan2]

Some interesting post-Chequers polling

Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election



Are we going to see a re-founding of UKIP? IIRC their main financial backer, Banks, has washed his hands of the party so even if a large chunk of the UKIP to Tory vote want to return to UKIP, will they have anyone to vote for?

The only way this can go,as it seems to me at least,is that the Tories are going to wake up to the fact that they have been getting away with murder because seventeen million or so saw them as the last best hope for a hard Brexit.Their only way forward is now to go Boris' way and ditch May.They will do that cos they're survivors as we know well.

 

[J Ed]

The only way this can go,as it seems to me at least,is that the Tories are going to wake up to the fact that they have been getting away with murder because seventeen million or so saw them as the last best hope for a hard Brexit.Their only way forward is now to go Boris' way and ditch May.They will do that cos they're survivors as we know well.

Yes, but if they move in that direction they will lose the socially liberal Tory vote which is already waning thereby leaving them even more dependent on the UKIP vote. There is no good way forward for them.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

4 quick points, I’m going out in a bit:

1. 17 Million leave voters are without political representation after chequers. As night follows day someone will fill or attempt to fill that vacuum. Support, money, votes, influence demand it will be the case.
2. As others have said, like the BNP before them, UKIP have shot their bolt and splintered all over the shop. Middle management failure. Lack of ability to organise the currents of suppprt, money and platform that came to it.
3. Labour has missed a golden chance to reconnect with the working class on this issue. Despite the historic position of Jeremy and McDonnell the trajectory is, in fact, increasingly away and towards its new middle class, city dwelling, student orientated vote. Yesterday’s march against Trump is a visual representation of where labour is at.
4. Chequers is an attempt by the Tories to reconnect with the double liberal - economically and socially - vote, or at least to compete with labour for it. They understand they can’t win again without at least contesting for votes in this group.
Those predicting the return of two party politics were premature as a massive space is reopening

 

[treelover]

Despite the historic position of Jeremy and McDonnell the trajectory is, in fact, increasingly away and towards its new middle class, city dwelling, student orientated vote. Yesterday’s march against Trump is a visual representation of where labour is at.

Corbyn is never more animated than when he is on a platform speaking about global issues.

 

[treelover]

4 quick points, I’m going out in a bit:

1. 17 Million leave voters are without political representation after chequers. As night follows day someone will fill or attempt to fill that vacuum. Support, money, votes, influence demand it will be the case.
2. As others have said, like the BNP before them, UKIP have shot their bolt and splintered all over the shop. Middle management failure. Lack of ability to organise the currents of suppprt, money and platform that came to it.
3. Labour has missed a golden chance to reconnect with the working class on this issue. Despite the historic position of Jeremy and McDonnell the trajectory is, in fact, increasingly away and towards its new middle class, city dwelling, student orientated vote. Yesterday’s march against Trump is a visual representation of where labour is at.
4. Chequers is an attempt by the Tories to reconnect with the double liberal - economically and socially - vote, or at least to compete with labour for it. They understand they can’t win again without at least contesting for votes in this group.
Those predicting the return of two party politics were premature as a massive space is reopening

I think I have asked you before, do you have a blog?

btw, why is this perspective so uncommon on the left, on social media, etc

 

[The39thStep]

4 quick points, I’m going out in a bit:

1. 17 Million leave voters are without political representation after chequers. As night follows day someone will fill or attempt to fill that vacuum. Support, money, votes, influence demand it will be the case.
2. As others have said, like the BNP before them, UKIP have shot their bolt and splintered all over the shop. Middle management failure. Lack of ability to organise the currents of suppprt, money and platform that came to it.
3. Labour has missed a golden chance to reconnect with the working class on this issue. Despite the historic position of Jeremy and McDonnell the trajectory is, in fact, increasingly away and towards its new middle class, city dwelling, student orientated vote. Yesterday’s march against Trump is a visual representation of where labour is at.
4. Chequers is an attempt by the Tories to reconnect with the double liberal - economically and socially - vote, or at least to compete with labour for it. They understand they can’t win again without at least contesting for votes in this group.
Those predicting the return of two party politics were premature as a massive space is reopening

Yup. As for UKIP quite possible for them to hoover up some Brexit means Brexit/ No deal votes with or without Farage. I think even Ann Marie Waters managed to hit 5% in the North East the other week.

 

[The39thStep]

I think I have asked you before, do you have a blog?

btw, why is this perspective so uncommon on the left, on social media, etc

There are a few disparate accounts on Twitter but they are mainly scorned by the left tbh

 

[SpookyFrank]

Yes, but if they move in that direction they will lose the socially liberal Tory vote which is already waning thereby leaving them even more dependent on the UKIP vote. There is no good way forward for them.

And there aren't seventeen million hard brexit obsessives out there, as the general election last year showed. Even with a UKIP collapse the Tories lost ground in what was framed as a referendum on May's (then) hard brexit agenda.

 

[Duncan2]

And there aren't seventeen million hard brexit obsessives out there, as the general election last year showed. Even with a UKIP collapse the Tories lost ground in what was framed as a referendum on May's (then) hard brexit agenda.

Very true-its complicated for sure.It has been suggested that there may have been a less positive result for Corbs if Labour's position on Brexit hadn't taken a while to develop.

 

[Raheem]

Very true-its complicated for sure.It has been suggested that there may have been a less positive result for Corbs if Labour's position on Brexit hadn't taken a while to develop.

But what is the basis for that suggestion? Polling doesn't seem to have shown a subsequent collapse in Labour support.

 

[Duncan2]

But what is the basis for that suggestion? Polling doesn't seem to have shown a subsequent collapse in Labour support.

To which I have no answer unless it is to say that the Tories have been busy descending into omni-shambles.

 

[Supine]

To which I have no answer unless it is to say that the Tories have been busy descending into omni-shambles.

With labour absolutely failing to take advantage for whatever reason.

 

[Raheem]

To which I have no answer unless it is to say that the Tories have been busy descending into omni-shambles.

They were really already at peak omni-shambles at the election, though. What hasn't happened is die-hard Brexiters abandoning the Tories for Labour once they realised they weren't going to get what they want. That's hardly surprising.

 

[agricola]

With labour absolutely failing to take advantage for whatever reason.

There are certainly issues with Labour, and certainly more that they (and Corbyn especially) could be doing, but we have never had a situation where one party has so overwhelmingly negative coverage from much of the media and yet remains at 38-40% of the vote.

 

[Poi E]

There are certainly issues with Labour, and certainly more that they (and Corbyn especially) could be doing, but we have never had a situation where one party has so overwhelmingly negative coverage from much of the media and yet remains at 38-40% of the vote.

Scotland has for ten years.

 

[redsquirrel]

Well it's a single poll so the usual caveats apply and as S&S says UKIP have splintered but there is clearly a space for some hard right party in the UK, and it's not crazy to think that the UKIP vote that (largely) returned Tories will try to find an alternative. That said any new hard right party is going to run into the same difficulties that both the BNP and UKIP faced, with the set up of the UK political system putting serious blocks in their path.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Very true-its complicated for sure.It has been suggested that there may have been a less positive result for Corbs if Labour's position on Brexit hadn't taken a while to develop.

I think the most overlooked fact in all this is that there are people who care about schools, hospitals, jobs and homes more than they care about brexit.

 

[Artaxerxes]

And there aren't seventeen million hard brexit obsessives out there, as the general election last year showed. Even with a UKIP collapse the Tories lost ground in what was framed as a referendum on May's (then) hard brexit agenda.

The main issue for most Brexit voters seems to be immigration, not always in the full on "fuck em" way but certainly in a concerned there's no jobs, no houses, no doctors, and they take away jobs from the locals way.

I don't think either party is particularly addressing that at this point.

At the same time it seems like battle lines are hard drawn between conservative and labour at this point, there seem to be few people willing to class themselves as swing voters and neither party is making terribly much headway.

 

[Duncan2]

Agree with the above the Labour vote no doubt did reflect concern about what austerity was doing to the public-services.But ,as Artaxerxes said, those same people may nevertheless have seen Brexit as an essential part of the solution to the lack of affordable housing,access to GPs,feelings of powerlessness at work and so on-and may still at that point have been looking to Labour to deliver it?

 

[butchersapron]

The main issue for most Brexit voters seems to be immigration, not always in the full on "fuck em" way but certainly in a concerned there's no jobs, no houses, no doctors, and they take away jobs from the locals way.

So the main issue would seem to be economic and the way the economy isn't working to their benefit but to that of the already rich and powerful?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

And there aren't seventeen million hard brexit obsessives out there, as the general election last year showed. Even with a UKIP collapse the Tories lost ground in what was framed as a referendum on May's (then) hard brexit agenda.

The general election also saw the collapse of UKIP as voters assumed Brexit was a done deal and returned to their mainstream parties - or retuned to a different mainstream party depending on their views on Brexit.

A 5% surge in UKIP suppor in the latest poll, the fact that chequers is yet to be subject to negotiation with the EU and the possibility of ref 2 indicate flux ahead

 

[Artaxerxes]

So the main issue would seem to be economic and the way the economy isn't working to their benefit but to that of the already rich and powerful?

Yes, but it's very much been blamed on The Immigrants by everyone so trying to unpack this is a very hard sell.

 

[Poi E]

Yes, but it's very much been blamed on The Immigrants by everyone so trying to unpack this is a very hard sell.

Yeah, the crash passed unnoticed unlike all these foreign types turning up.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Yeah, the crash passed unnoticed unlike all these foreign types turning up.

Given the contempt towards Occupy I've seen by the average voter and even those who should know better, yes.

 

[Poi E]

those who should know better

Who are these people?

 

[danny la rouge]

4 quick points, I’m going out in a bit:

1. 17 Million leave voters are without political representation after chequers. As night follows day someone will fill or attempt to fill that vacuum. Support, money, votes, influence demand it will be the case.
2. As others have said, like the BNP before them, UKIP have shot their bolt and splintered all over the shop. Middle management failure. Lack of ability to organise the currents of suppprt, money and platform that came to it.
3. Labour has missed a golden chance to reconnect with the working class on this issue. Despite the historic position of Jeremy and McDonnell the trajectory is, in fact, increasingly away and towards its new middle class, city dwelling, student orientated vote. Yesterday’s march against Trump is a visual representation of where labour is at.
4. Chequers is an attempt by the Tories to reconnect with the double liberal - economically and socially - vote, or at least to compete with labour for it. They understand they can’t win again without at least contesting for votes in this group.
Those predicting the return of two party politics were premature as a massive space is reopening

Generally agree, but I'm dubious about putting a single motive towards the entire Leave vote (or Remain vote, for that matter). And I certainly don't think 17 million people have looked over the Chequers agreement and decided it doesn't reflect the Brexit they'd hoped for.

That said, there will be a significant number of people looking more generally at the government's disarray and feeling less than confident they're on track for March.

 

[Dogsauce]

What would really mess things up would be a senior Tory defecting to UKIP as a response to the party waving the white flag at Brussels, but with UKIP on 8% and Tory support not exactly haemorrhaging despite the shit job they’re doing then now is not the time. I’ve pondered what would happen if someone like Johnson jumped ship, but his personal ambitions are much more likely to be met staying where he is for now.