Predicting apocalypse - political history of

[Brainaddict]

It's interesting if slightly depressing to watch the Green movement predicting apocalypse at the moment - a double apocalypse in fact - climate change and peak oil. Though I'm very sympathetic to radical green thinking, I think you need to misread both science and politics to get those predictions* - but that's a debate for other threads. The point is, I've started to see it as a reaction to the fact that greens have been so marginalised for decades - so now they reckon they can get more attention and influence by predicting the end of the world. So it got me wondering if there's a whole history of marginalised political groups predicting the apocalypse (whether religious or secular) in order to try and bolster their claims to truth/power. I'm sure someone somewhere must have done a PhD on this topic at the very least


[*In short, climate apocalypse is at the quite improbable end of climate modelling predictions (though increased extreme events will happen), and while peak oil will happen, it won't run out overnight and we'll have time and resources to create alternative sources of energy, even if it is nuclear and therefore not very desirable]

 

[Belushi]

Interesting thread, theres the whole millenarian thing amongst Protestants which has been informing the politics of some groups for centuries - from the English Civil War to the modern US religious right.

 

[Belushi]

And of course parts of the left have been predicting 'the imminent collapse of capitalism' for well over a century now.

 

[butchersapron]

There's Norman Cohen's book The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages plus loads of studies of millennarian types in the English revolution.

 

[Belushi]

There's Norman Cohen's book The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages plus loads of studies of millennarian types in the English revolution.

Hadn't thought pre-English Revolution, were there millenarian elements to the Peasents Revolt?

 

[butchersapron]

Hadn't thought pre-English Revolution, were there millenarian elements to the Peasents Revolt?

I do belive that was one manner in whihc political/material frustrations were expressed at the time - it most certainly was in anabaptist Munster and other places where huge insurrections were launched on similiar themes.

 

[david dissadent]

, I think you need to misread both science and politics to get those predictions*

Why dont you present the data you posses then to prove this cornupcopian world view in the relevant threads in the science forum.

 

[david dissadent]

wondering if there's a whole history of marginalised political groups predicting the apocalypse (whether religious or secular) in order to try and bolster their claims to truth/power.

Yes, CND they claimed nuclear weapons would lead to an apocalypse. One never happened. How we now laugh at such naivity.

 

[Demosthenes]

I think apocalypse can happen slowly, and not be noticed.

There's a good book by John Wyndham, the Kraken wakes, that kind of illustrates the point.

 

[nosos]

Can I suggest that there's a distinction to be drawn between an empirical hypothesis and a political narrative? Discussions like this always tend to badly conflate the two.

 

[Demosthenes]

Can I suggest that there's a distinction to be drawn between an empirical hypothesis and a political narrative? Discussions like this always tend to badly conflate the two.

Can I suggest that all those academic papers you've been reading have affected your style.

 

[nosos]

Perhaps

 

[Demosthenes]

I've been at it myself, - certainly affects my head.

 

[Belushi]

4-5 years out of academia and you'll be back to normal.

 

[Random]

[*In short, climate apocalypse is at the quite improbable end of climate modelling predictions (though increased extreme events will happen), and while peak oil will happen, it won't run out overnight and we'll have time and resources to create alternative sources of energy, even if it is nuclear and therefore not very desirable]

Frequent extreme weather disasters and energy supply turmoil sound bad enough, whether you call this an 'apocalypse' or not. Certainly sounds as bad as the tensions that led to the First and Second world wars.

 

[ViolentPanda]

There's Norman Cohen's book The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages plus loads of studies of millennarian types in the English revolution.

Cohn's "Europe's Inner Demons" also posits Millenarianism as one of the motive forces behind the "witch hunts".

 

[Brainaddict]

Frequent extreme weather disasters and energy supply turmoil sound bad enough, whether you call this an 'apocalypse' or not. Certainly sounds as bad as the tensions that led to the First and Second world wars.

Yeah, it's gonna be bad - no doubt about it, particularly for poor people. But I've been to some green meetings lately where people were actually predicting the earth becoming uninhabitable due to climate change - to much sage nodding of heads. And there probably will be more oil wars, but it's obvious to me that politicians in rich countries (out of self-interest if nothing else) will likely go for the full-scale nuclear option before letting resource conflict affect the comfort of their own populations - whether that's a good thing long term is a different debate.

I could have started a debate (or two) in the science forum but I posted this question cos I was pondering it.

I hadn't actually thought of the 'imminent collapse of capitalism' ranting of many marxist political streams - that has a long history - and I still hear people today trotting it out.

My feeling is that apocalyptic frightening is something radicals of all stripes could be prone to, because people are often scared of radical change so the radicals want to present a future that's EVEN SCARIER to push people towards their program.

That Cohen book looks interesting - might look it out.

 

[david dissadent]

I hadn't actually thought of the 'imminent collapse of capitalism' ranting of many marxist political streams

Compaired to "the immenent collapse of communism", that some right wing ideolouges were trotting out in the 80s?

Social and ecomonic collapses happen.

Perhaps you would have been better starting this off by trying to explore the reason that Fight Club and that type of fiction is so popular. The idea that a collapse of a society or economic system rearranges the rules for who is on top and becomes a means of people fantisising that the qualities that they posses are what is required to reach the top in a re-ordered world. That kind of doomer fiction started perhaps around the time of Wells War of the Worlds.

Also boardom. It was the appaling bordom of the factories and farms of Edwardian Britian that meant that the glory and dashing life as a soldier was so appealing to boys being fed into the meat grinder at the Somme and Ypres. People innitialy celebrated themselves of to war. Cheering crowds and cheerful faces at the prospect of a less boring few weeks bashing the Bosch.

 

[Brainaddict]

Social and ecomonic collapses happen.

This is true. They tend to be a bit unpredictable though. Predicting them often makes the predictors look a bit silly. This bothers me because, as I said, I really do sympathise with a lot of radical green thought, and I think it's a real shame to have to watch a bunch of them making wallies of themselves

If you want to start a science debate thread about climate predictions this is a good place to start (slightly dependent on your view of the IPCC):
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_FAQs.pdf
Compare the answers to FAQs 10.1 and 10.2. Personally I can't be arsed to start the thread because debates that involve both politics and science tend to consist of watching people make tits of themselves - and there are more entertaining ways of doing that - like watching the Jeremy Kyle Show or UKIP political broadcasts - feel free to start the thread yourself though.

 

[bluestreak]

There's Norman Cohen's book The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages plus loads of studies of millennarian types in the English revolution.

A great read that. Annoyingly I lent it to someone and never saw it again

I love this sort of thing, fascinating stuff.

 

[ebay sex moomin]

Yes, CND they claimed nuclear weapons would lead to an apocalypse. One never happened. How we now laugh at such naivity.

correction- one hasn't happened yet. And I personally don't laugh about nuclear weapons- they're always there for when I need a four a.m. dose of insomniac worry, along with AIDS, interracial conflict, famine, global warming, superviruses, meteors crashing into the earth, the unexploded magma reserve under Jellystone park that is apparently just waiting to explode and destroy us all, chemical warfare, overpopulation, Mr Revelations beast with the seven heads arising from the waves, nuclear power station meltdowns, the inability of society to cope with an increasingly aging population, oil reserves running out, Noel Edmonds, genocide, as well as general aging, decreptitude and eventual, inevitable death...

no you're right- it is funny

 

[Chilliconcarne]

correction- one hasn't happened yet. And I personally don't laugh about nuclear weapons- they're always there for when I need a four a.m. dose of insomniac worry, along with AIDS, interracial conflict, famine, global warming, superviruses, meteors crashing into the earth, the unexploded magma reserve under Jellystone park that is apparently just waiting to explode and destroy us all, chemical warfare, overpopulation, Mr Revelations beast with the seven heads arising from the waves, nuclear power station meltdowns, the inability of society to cope with an increasingly aging population, oil reserves running out, Noel Edmonds, genocide, as well as general aging, decreptitude and eventual, inevitable death...

no you're right- it is funny

Noel Edmonds scares the shit out of me too

I worry too, and I wonder what will get us first...something unavoidable like that meteorite or magma, or whether it will be our own doing.

The only end of the world prophecy i've ever been interested in is the Mayan one for 2012. But I don't see how that could have been politically motivated?

 

[kyser_soze]

Humans made it through a 10,000 year long ice age, I reckon that some remnant of the species will get through a CC apocalypse to start again.

There's an element of the religious about apocalyptic greens as well - the fervour, the slightly crazed eyes and the piety and disdain many show for people who don't measure up to their green credentials...not to mention the Gaia-ists, Earth Mother types and the rest...all religions need their end of the world story...

 

[Chilliconcarne]

Humans made it through a 10,000 year long ice age, I reckon that some remnant of the species will get through a CC apocalypse to start again.

I agree, I think there may be a small amount of people capable of surviving...but we have lost so many of the skills that got us through the last one I think it will be a very small amount of people.

 

[kyser_soze]

I agree, I think there may be a small amount of people capable of surviving...but we have lost so many of the skills that got us through the last one I think it will be a very small amount of people.

Re-learn them or die really...

Having said that, a friend of mine got the New Scientist experiments to do at home book, and there's some really, really cool stuff in there (for example, how to make plastics from milk and vinegar)...and when you say 'we' I would assume you're referring to urbanised societies, rather than groups like the Kalahari bushmen? Many bush skills (making fire, building a shelter) are pretty easy to pick up, and more complex stuff (building boats, metallurgy) is stuff you can potentially learn yourself, and lets face it, you'll probably have a fair bit of time to learn this stuff not having a 9-5 anymore...

One advantage we do have over our ancestors is that we know that things can be done, and much of this knowledge is recorded in books as well, so you don't need to worry about playback

 

[Chilliconcarne]

Re-learn them or die really...

Having said that, a friend of mine got the New Scientist experiments to do at home book, and there's some really, really cool stuff in there (for example, how to make plastics from milk and vinegar)...and when you say 'we' I would assume you're referring to urbanised societies, rather than groups like the Kalahari bushmen? Many bush skills (making fire, building a shelter) are pretty easy to pick up, and more complex stuff (building boats, metallurgy) is stuff you can potentially learn yourself, and lets face it, you'll probably have a fair bit of time to learn this stuff not having a 9-5 anymore...

One advantage we do have over our ancestors is that we know that things can be done, and much of this knowledge is recorded in books as well, so you don't need to worry about playback

Yeah when I say we I mean us lazy westerners

I have to admit, on sleepless nights, I do sometimes make little (lighthearted) contingency plans in my head....like could I blow up my airbed and get it out the window as a makeshift boat in time, should there be a mass flood. Or what would be the best and easily available materials to make a small animal trap, or I plan out little shelters and stuff.

Yes...a little glimpse into my strange world

 

[baldrick]

Also the Roman apocalyptic was a recognised literary form during the Republic/Empire.

 

[gorski]

Humans made it through a 10,000 year long ice age...

How "cold" was it around the equator at that time - anyone knows?

I reckon that some remnant of the species will get through a CC apocalypse to start again.

There's an element of the religious about apocalyptic greens as well - the fervour, the slightly crazed eyes and the piety and disdain many show for people who don't measure up to their green credentials...not to mention the Gaia-ists, Earth Mother types and the rest...all religions need their end of the world story

Indeed! Poor sods!!!

 

[kyser_soze]

How "cold" was it around the equator at that time - anyone knows?

I actually think that the ice age was the reasons for the 'big leap', developmentally, into things like mass agriculture and cities and what have you - the ice age compressed human population densities around the remaining (easily) habitable zones, increasing population density and the 'human environmental' changes that bought about drove the first civilisations...basically humans went from low density, mobile cultures to high density immobile cultures.

It's a thought anyway...

 

[butchersapron]

Also the Roman apocalyptic was a recognised literary form during the Republic/Empire.

There's a mass of Jewish apocalyptic literature from around times of social stress and conflict as well.