Ditto the continual lockdown argument but that’s made much less frequently now.
I dont think there ever was much of an argument for continual lockdown.
Zero covid did not involve continual lockdown, it involved really early lockdowns in an attempt to minimise the numbers. Not many countries went for that approach, and those that did were not intending to do so forever, just till things like vaccination uptake reached a certain level. And if someone wants to count the number of weeks someone living in parts of those countries ended up living under lockdown so far, and compares that to the length of lockdown time the UK had to endure as a result of late action, I think the results would be very interesting indeed! Then add in how many hospitalisations and deaths happened, and an ugly picture emerges. Attempts in 2021 to piss all over zero covid with renewed vigour, as soon as the apparent opportunity arose, were obvious and disgusting. The UKs dismal approach was humbling, but some resist that humbling by bringing much bravado to that table, and in the vaccine era there is even a chance they will get away with such stances in ways they could not really hope to earlier on.
I liked some of the zero covid themes very much, the idea of trying to minimise infections, trying to nip things in the bud so that measures dont have to last as long and there isnt so much death and erosion of the NHS. I had low expectations about this being done, and no expectations of it happening in the UK, so I didnt spend as much time talking about it as I otherwise would have. I have never called for or expected people in the UK to endure a lockdown lasting years, or even half a year at a time. But I have been clear throughout 2021 that I dont think we should ask vaccines to carry 100% of the pandemic burden, and that approaches which tended towards such an extreme were risky and might doom us to more of the very strongest measures than we could have gotten away with if we'd maintained a better balance all the way through.
A lot of my pandemic commentary has been about what I expected the authorities to do, and when their hand might be forced. That largely comes down to pressure on hospitals, rather than the exact number of deaths, although the two are clearly related. So trying to turn this back into a discussion about the future, here is my simplified guide:
The authorities want to reach a point where only medical interventions are required in order to cope. Vaccines carry a big chunk of this weight, as do treatments. The authorities are especially keen on the potential of treatments which can be given to people at home, and that lead to further substantial changes to the proportion of cases that then go on to require hospitalisation.
The authorities in the UK know that even when trying to be optimistic, they hadnt quite managed to fully reach that point yet, mostly due to setbacks caused by variants. So they've ended up pushing their luck, and also they have felt the need to still bring in certain measures, and to appeal to people loudly to adjust their behaviour. It will become really obvious once we reach a point where they've gotten beyond that, when their confidence becomes high that they can deal with this virus using little more than medical interventions. And then there will be questions about whether they can maintain that stance fully all year round, or whether they still have to go further in winter or at any time when a notable epidemic wave of this virus happens.
Related to that picture of the future are questions for us all such as how often the authorities are going to feel like they need to encourage everyone to get a booster. And this too has an impact on what attitudes and media mood music they will need to preserve in the population - if people become too comfortable about the virus and uptake of boosters starts to fall below the required level as a result, we'll have a renewed problem. If we are asked to get a booster every 4 or 6 months instead of yearly, this also has implications for attitudes and acceptance of what needs to be done in the years ahead. Hopefully a more comprehensive understanding of immunity will be built via data obtained in situations like the current Omicron wave, and the frequency with which authorities think we need another dose of vaccine will be reduced as a result of any good news in this wave, but its not a certainty at this point.
