Now that COVID is here permanently

[Yossarian]

With the rise of omicron - much more infectious than previous variants and perceived as milder - there has been a cascade of places cutting quarantine times in half, abandoning widespread PCR testing, etc,. which seems like a final admission that zero COVID is out of reach and the virus is here to stay.

But what is permanent COVID going to look like? As others have said, "living with COVID" is unlikely to mean the same thing as "living like we did before COVID" - are mask mandates in winter going to become a yearly thing? Will a time come when we can cross borders without a COVID test?

Studies seem to agree that omicron is less likely to infect the lungs, which is why there is a comparatively lower rate of deaths and hospitalisations so far, but is there any sign that long COVID is also less likely with omicron? Are we just going to be a society with a higher proportion of long-term ill people now?

And since the omicron variant rose from nowhere to dominating the world in a matter of weeks, doesn't a "let it rip" strategy, which gives the virus hundreds of millions more opportunities to mutate inside infected people, run the risk of creating a variant that is even more infectious than omicron but also more severe?

That's a lot of questions, and I get the impression that a lot of governments haven't spent too much time thinking about them.

 

[High Voltage]

I think / fear that a lot a adopting the "La! La! La!" approach

 

[Voley]

And since the omicron variant rose from nowhere to dominating the world in a matter of weeks, doesn't a "let it rip" strategy, which gives the virus hundreds of millions more opportunities to mutate inside infected people, run the risk of creating a variant that is even more infectious than omicron but also more severe?

This is the one that concerns me. Imagine Omicron with Delta's lethality (or worse). It doesn't bear thinking about ... and that appears to be our government's policy. Until we've vaccinated the world I can't help but think that something along those lines is in the post. Not an optimistic outlook, I know.

 

[platinumsage]

This is the one that concerns me. Imagine Omicron with Delta's lethality (or worse). It doesn't bear thinking about ... and that appears to be our government's policy. Until we've vaccinated the world I can't help but think that something along those lines is in the post. Not an optimistic outlook, I know.

Vaccinating the world isn't going to stop new variants appearing. However I'm no more worried about deadly new variants appearing than I was by deadly new pandemics appearing prior to this pandemic.

 

[girasol]

I'm hoping it'll be like flu - seasonal vaccination for over 50s/vulnerable, a few thousand deaths every winter... That's best case scenario. As for masks... It really didn't take long for me to forget wearing them (apart from supermarket/public transport) so, don't know. Maybe people will keep wearing them for as long as they have them in stock at home sort of thing...

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Anything could happen in the next half hour. That's the trouble. COVID could become more benign or more vile, more or less immune to vaccines, more or less dangerous for different age-related or ethnic demographics, etc etc. Most of us can only speculate rather wildly and even experts can only speculate a bit less wildly. And still get it completely wrong.

 

[Griff]

I'm hoping it'll be like flu - seasonal vaccination for over 50s/vulnerable, a few thousand deaths every winter... That's best case scenario.

It's the only scenario.

By all means be careful, wear a mask if you want, test and isolate if it feels necessary to keep yourselves and others safe but we cannot keep this going.

God knows the mental damage it's done to God knows how many people. We'll be counting the cost of that for years.

 

[Badgers]

God knows the mental damage it's done to God knows how many people. We'll be counting the cost of that for years.

Decades at least

 

[two sheds]

This needs to take into account the effects on the NHS particularly nurses, doctors, ambulance drivers and the like.

 

[Agent Sparrow]

I think one question is how we manage cold symptoms in the future, if Omicron is more likely to present like that in the vaccinated. There’s a social, educational and vocational pressure to carry on with cold symptoms that don’t reach a certain level, should people start not attending school or work every time they get a sniffle?

I know some will say they should anyway to not pass on any colds, but families with young children can have colds go through their household every three weeks or so. With governmental attendance pressure, schools aren’t going to stand for several days off every month. Plus there’s the complication of the more snotty allergies.

 

[two sheds]

With me having avoided people almost totally over the last year I want to know where the two chest infections have come from. I'm starting to believe in spontaneous generation of diseases.

 

[Griff]

With me having avoided people almost totally over the last year I want to know where the two chest infections have come from. I'm starting to believe in spontaneous generation of diseases.

Cunning viruses

 

[Riklet]

The Spanish flu basically just disappeared. All over the world at the same time too. We dont really know why other than it was perhaps too deadly. I think our knowledge and understanding of viruses is just getting started really.

I very much doubt covid in its more pandemic form will be here to stay. With health measures, vaccination, treatments etc things will be different in a few years. Hopefully for the better. It has barely been 2 years... not very long from a historical perspective.

 

[keybored]

Cunning viruses

The first positive test was recorded on 14 December, among a team who had arrived seven days earlier

Hardly cunning.

 

[Griff]

Hardly cunning.

Tongue in cheek, but this was the important bit:

'Staff arriving at the station must be vaccinated and tested for the virus.'

 

[keybored]

Tongue in cheek, but this was the important bit:

'Staff arriving at the station must be vaccinated and tested for the virus.'

I thought it was common knowledge that vaccination doesn't provide complete immunity and tests aren't 100% accurate. They just load the dice heavily in your favour.

 

[High Voltage]

What would be nice, would be a concerted public re-education program of the fact that coughs and sneezes spread diseases and of not just coughing without covering your mouth but coughing / sneezing into "something" and to be vaguely aware of other people

 

[Yossarian]

It's the only scenario.

There are untold trillions of different kinds of viruses, a few hundred thousand of which affect mammals, and a few hundred of which affect humans - why would we assume that our relationship with this virus will develop in the exact same way as with the unrelated one that caused a pandemic a century ago?

 

[Agent Sparrow]

What would be nice, would be a concerted public re-education program of the fact that coughs and sneezes spread diseases and of not just coughing without covering your mouth but coughing / sneezing into "something" and to be vaguely aware of other people

But as I’ve said a few posts above, public education wouldn’t achieve that much without changes in work and school/DoE attitudes about acceptable sick absence.

 

[Griff]

I thought it was common knowledge that vaccination doesn't provide complete immunity and tests aren't 100% accurate. They just load the dice heavily in your favour.

It was in response to two sheds talking about his isolation and getting an infection.

Not looking for a Sunday morning arguement.

 

[two sheds]

Spontaneous germ-free generation ftw still

 

[Pickman's model]

But as I’ve said a few posts above, public education wouldn’t achieve that much without changes in work and school/DoE attitudes about acceptable sick absence.

Tbh the sickness absence policies that look on the number of absences as a problem rather than absence as a means of preventing sickness spreading are a great issue across the public sector certainly and probably across the private sector too.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not looking for a Sunday morning arguement.

Come back in half an hour then.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not looking for a Sunday morning arguement.

No need to look when you've found one

 

[keybored]

It was in response to two sheds talking about his isolation and getting an infection.

Not looking for a Sunday morning arguement.

Me neither, I was just pointing out his situation isn't analogous as he didn't have a research team dropped into his house last week afaict.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There are untold trillions of different kinds of viruses, a few hundred thousand of which affect mammals, and a few hundred of which affect humans - why would we assume that our relationship with this virus will develop in the exact same way as with the unrelated one that caused a pandemic a century ago?

Perhaps more relevant would be 'Russian flu' of the 1880s, which is now strongly suspected to have been a coronavirus that jumped species and is now one of the common cold viruses. That killed a lot of people over four or five waves then faded away. It provides a more optimistic scenario than Spanish flu - that over time covid will become like a cold, not like influenza. We'll gain immunity when catching it young and that will mostly stop it from killing us when we're older.

 

[Agent Sparrow]

Tbh the sickness absence policies that look on the number of absences as a problem rather than absence as a means of preventing sickness spreading are a great issue across the public sector certainly and probably across the private sector too.

I agree, but change needs to come from top down!

It will be interesting to see if that does happen in some sectors/industries as a result of permanent background levels of COVID.

For now in my job I can at least change my day around and wfh if in doubt, but whether that stays acceptable is unknown.

 

[Griff]

With that 'Russian Flu' example, I read (somewhere) that there is still a variant from the late '60s around that still makes people ill.

 

[two sheds]

Me neither, I was just pointing out his situation isn't analogous as he didn't have a research team dropped into his house last week afaict.

It doesn't say in the article whether they get Morrison deliveries.

 

[High Voltage]

Same with the Kansas / Spanish flu of 1918 I've read that it to is still in circulation or at least variants of it - as with others it appears to have lost most of its teeth