scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
I guess traffic wardens still need to check for cars parked across corner, in disabled bays, that sort of thing.
London: the unlockening/relockening
- Thread starter teuchter
- Start date
I guess traffic wardens still need to check for cars parked across corner, in disabled bays, that sort of thing.
T & P
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Thanks for that. I have a free motorcycle parking bay further down my street, but during the first lockdown when the wardens were told to stop working I took to parking my motorbike right outside our front door. I will do the same this next four weeks if it turns out the street patrolling wardens have been given the month off.
T & P
|-o-| (-o-) |-o-|
Yes, I am pretty sure proper infractions like the ones you describe were still being policed during the lockdown, but the controlled parking zones for residents were not so long as a vehicle was properly parked.
T & P
|-o-| (-o-) |-o-|
Well, I am one of those who cannot work from home and am still commuting during the lockdown, and both yesterday and today the amount of traffic around since lockdown 2 started is undoubtedly much higher than lockdown 1. And pedestrians and people about, in general. I suspect this ain’t going to make that much of a dent in the R numbers..
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
It's absolutely nothing like lockdown 1. You could stand in the middle of the road then and very occasionally you'd have to move away because a car was coming past. Big cycling groups were all over the place just because of that.
This isn't a lockdown at all. People are still going to work, schools are still open, it's basically the same as a week ago except you can't have fun, and also nobody is paying attention anyway.
This isn't a lockdown at all. People are still going to work, schools are still open, it's basically the same as a week ago except you can't have fun, and also nobody is paying attention anyway.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You won't believe what will happen in lockdown 3
elbows
Well-Known Member
Except it isnt true that nobody is paying attention. Less people are than last time, but those whose behaviour has changed in recent weeks likely still represent a large enough group that these changes will show up in the data at some point. In much the same way that despite the vast reopenings earlier in the year, the R went back up but not back to 3+ like it was before the pandemic awareness formed.
But yes, certainly expect much less of an effect with this one on its own due to keeping schools and more workplaces open. So we'll be reliant on other aspects of the epidemic evolution, differences in risk taking by different age groups, and other existing measures (eg masks) in order to hope that the decrease in infections is substantial enough to get hospital admission rates down. The half term holiday would also have been expected to have some effect, and even though it was much shorter than such measures should really be, effects of it may still show up in the data.
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
Yeah I don't feel the need to defend obvious hyperbole. There will be an effect, but calling this a "lockdown" in context is nonsense, and I'm sceptical that the effect will reach any sort of effective level before it's all lifted anyway because christmas.
The tube is slightly quieter from Zone 6. But yes, it's nothing like Central London was last week of March or when I was unfurloughed at the beginning of July.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I gave up on trying to preserve a stronger, purer meaning to the term lockdown the first time, since that wasnt a full lockdown either compared to what some countries did. So I'm afraid I'm just using it how its sloppily used elsewhere, and I need all the shorthand I can find given my tendency to waffle.
This time a lot of countries in Europe have gone for similar measures as us, trying to keep various workplaces and educational establishments open, so if it falls really far short it will be a very widespread failure.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I wasn't out and about having loads of fun a week or two ago anyway. This week all them young folk can't either, so at least there's that.
T & P
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Being allowed to go out to pick up non-essential click and collect purchases seems particularly idiotic to me. One thing that worked pretty well during the first lockdown was the delivery services, even if subject to small delays sometimes. And I know this first hand due to my work.
So why let people go out to click and collect purchases from shops? The delivery companies didn’t particularly struggle in the Spring. If we were in mid December now I could understand any concerns about Xmas shopping being late... There are far too many permitted reasons to leave your home in this lockdown- no wonder there are some many folk about.
So why let people go out to click and collect purchases from shops? The delivery companies didn’t particularly struggle in the Spring. If we were in mid December now I could understand any concerns about Xmas shopping being late... There are far too many permitted reasons to leave your home in this lockdown- no wonder there are some many folk about.
So now we know the outline of the revised tier system the next big question is what tier will London be in come next month? Its a bit of a tricky one in that there is great divergence across the area with some boroughs being up over 350 cases per 100,000 whilst the figurer is much closer to a 100 for others.
Whilst I don't think there is a better way of doing things it does show the limitations of having a one size fits all strategy for somewhere as big as London. Obviously with the lowest numbers still being worryingly high it will be a minimum of tier 2. I'd say it must be on a knife edge as to whether it will be tier 3. If you were looking at it purely from a covid perspective than tier 3 is a bit of a no brainer but a London December with effectively no hospitality will be catastrophic for the city's economy and workers.
Hmmm.
Whilst I don't think there is a better way of doing things it does show the limitations of having a one size fits all strategy for somewhere as big as London. Obviously with the lowest numbers still being worryingly high it will be a minimum of tier 2. I'd say it must be on a knife edge as to whether it will be tier 3. If you were looking at it purely from a covid perspective than tier 3 is a bit of a no brainer but a London December with effectively no hospitality will be catastrophic for the city's economy and workers.
Hmmm.
ska invita
back on the other side
Im dubious we should be coming out of lockdown at all - should be 3 at a minimum
Agree with you, it'll be a 2 then - this lockdown is lifting purely for the sake of crucial December trading, with a January lockdown to follow
In fairness there really isn't that much difference between tier 3 and the mockdown (stolen from fellow urb) we've just had so, you're probably spot on in your prediction. Tier 2 till Christmas and then straight into tier 3 for January 1st.
ska invita
back on the other side
London infections are actually rising at the moment!
prunus
Tick tock.
London infections are actually rising at the moment!
That graph is hospital admissions which lags infections by something like 2 to 3 weeks, so doesn’t really tell us what is happening at the moment.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The lag is often less than the maximum lengths people are told. Especially when it comes to the difference in timing between different bits of data, since the data itself lags behind reality in various ways, eg the number of infections detected from samples on a particular day is also lagging behind when the infections were actually acquired, and then there are further delays in reporting that data.
Recently I attempted to put various hospital, death and cases figures into a single graph, to see how much lag there was between different measures changing trajectory, both in the first wave and more recently. I have manipulated the scale of the numbers to get them all into approximately the same sort of range, otherwise the data with large numbers in it dwarfs the rest. And my graph is done with the benefit of data publishing hindsight, so its not actually measuring the reporting part of the lag, its not a perfect exercise by a long shot, its just a crude attempt to gain insight into how soon after, for example, hospital admissions peaking, we should see changes to number of people in hospital, deaths etc. And the data is for England only.
My simplified conclusion is that hospital admissions figures will do.
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ska invita
back on the other side
The key word here is LOBBYING
Tier 2 is a joke: schools, universities, shops, pubs, restaurants, gyms, everything open
Prescient.
Well the jungle drums are beating already for London to be moved up to tier 3. One of the problems as I see it was that the cases continued to rise in many places whilst we were in lockdown 2. The writing was kind of already on the wall when lockdown 2 finished and I think what we're seeing here is not a failure of tier 2 per se as the seeds were already sown.
On the plus side all bets are off at Christmas so the great London festive getaway can proceed as normal.
On the plus side all bets are off at Christmas so the great London festive getaway can proceed as normal.
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