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London: the unlockening/relockening

teuchter said:
That's a totally misleading headline. According to the article, in London the rate is estimated to be somewhere between 0.8 and 1.1. So it is most likely less than one. It is more likely that the number of infections are falling than it is that they are rising.

Can't we just send all journalists to numerical literacy bootcamps or something?
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After you go of course as your non sequitur suggests you'll benefit from it too
 
teuchter said:
That's a totally misleading headline. According to the article, in London the rate is estimated to be somewhere between 0.8 and 1.1. So it is most likely less than one. It is more likely that the number of infections are falling than it is that they are rising.

Can't we just send all journalists to numerical literacy bootcamps or something?
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yes 0.8-1.1 is what i posted under it
but you're right = The Mirror is a rag effectively run by the worst of Labour spin doctors
 
William of Walworth said:
Reports from London-based and other big city-based Urbs (drinkers or not!) will be welcomed, cheers .... :)
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Yesterday evening, ie before reopening, the bars on Battersea Rise were heaving with tightpacked young people (e2a outside) clutching plastic glasses (why isn't there a word?) with empties in the gutter. They've been like that for a couple of weeks now.

FWIW they were almost entirely white and there were no riot vans visible, meanwhile on the estates...
 
teuchter said:
That's a totally misleading headline. According to the article, in London the rate is estimated to be somewhere between 0.8 and 1.1. So it is most likely less than one. It is more likely that the number of infections are falling than it is that they are rising.

Can't we just send all journalists to numerical literacy bootcamps or something?
Click to expand...

When a range is given like that I dont have a reason to think the lower numbers in the range are more likely than the upper ones. But there are a lot of caveats with these numbers anyway, I wouldnt place much faith in their R estimates or growth estimates and they are very easily skewed by being based on only a small amount of real data, and local outbreaks that dont actually apply to the whole region in question. Here is some of the tedious detail from the government webpage where these numbers are published.

Limitations of R
R is an average value that can vary in different parts of the country, communities, and subsections of the population. It cannot be measured directly so there is always uncertainty around its exact value. This becomes even more of a problem when calculating R using small numbers of cases, either due to lower infection rates or smaller geographical areas. This uncertainty may be due to variability in the underlying data, leading to a wider range for R and more frequent changes in the estimates.

Even when the overall UK R estimate is below 1, some regions may have Restimates that include ranges that exceed 1, for example from 0.7 to 1.1; this does not necessarily mean the epidemic is increasing in that region, just that the uncertainty means it cannot be ruled out. It is also possible that an outbreak in one specific place could result in an R above 1 for the whole region.

Estimates of R for geographies smaller than regional level are less reliable and it is more appropriate to identify local hotspots through, for example, monitoring numbers of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths.
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Limitations of growth rates
The growth rate is an average value that can vary. When case numbers are low, uncertainty increases. This could happen when only a very small proportion of people are infected, or the geographical area considered has a very small population. A smaller number of cases means that variability in the underlying data makes it difficult to estimate the growth rate; there will be a wider range given for growth rate and frequent changes in the estimates. This will happen for both R and the growth rate; however, the growth rate requires fewer assumptions about the disease when it is calculated than R.

Even when the overall UK growth rate estimate is negative (below 0), some regions may have growth rate estimates that include ranges that are positive (above 0), for example from -4% to +1%; this does not necessarily mean the epidemic is increasing in that region, just that the uncertainty means it cannot be ruled out. It is also possible that an outbreak in one specific place could result in a positive (above 0) growth rate for the whole region.
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www.gov.uk

The R value and growth rate

The latest reproduction number (R) and growth rate of coronavirus (COVID-19).
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

I am very much in alignment with the bit where they say "Estimates of R for geographies smaller than regional level are less reliable and it is more appropriate to identify local hotspots through, for example, monitoring numbers of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths."
 
Also I rarely think about R in isolation. Because the implications of an R of 1.1 in a place that had 7000 infections at that moment in time are a bit different to an R of 1.1 in a place that already had 70,000 infections at that time. Even if R shot massively over 1 somewhere, if its starting from a fairly low base of infections then there is still quite a bit of time & wiggle room to deal with it befeore the implications even begin to resemble the picture of February/March. Things would need to be left unchecked for quite a while before the situation could resemble the sort of scenario people fear most.
 
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teuchter said:
That's a totally misleading headline. According to the article, in London the rate is estimated to be somewhere between 0.8 and 1.1. So it is most likely less than one. It is more likely that the number of infections are falling than it is that they are rising.

Can't we just send all journalists to numerical literacy bootcamps or something?
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Pls could you post your working which shows why these guesses influence the actual rate, why it is more likely that r is below 1
 
Pickman's model said:
Pls could you post your working which shows why these guesses influence the actual rate, why it is more likely that r is below 1
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Instead of asking me to explain how to reverse causality why don't you produce the workings that would justify the article headline.
 
elbows said:
Also I rarely think about R in isolation. Because the implications of an R of 1.1 in a place that had 7000 infections at that moment in time are a bit different to an R of 1.1 in a place that already had 70,000 infections at that time. Even if R shot massively over 1 somewhere, if its starting from a fairly low base of infections then there is still quite a bit of time & wiggle room to deal with it befeore the implications even begin to resemble the picture of February/March. Things would need to be left unchecked for quite a while before the situation could resemble the sort of scenario people fear most.
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Yes. Another reason that article is rubbish.
 
My first trip on public transport this afternoon, on the overground. The train is not packed but it's certainly not empty.

Almost everyone has a mask, but I would say 50% are wearing it on their chin, including the woman having a loud telephone conversation.

Actually technically my first trip was on Sunday, on almost empty thameslink trains to and from just outside of London. My observation there was that the mask wearing was being better observed the closer you came into london.
 
I took the tube from Brixton to Finsbury Park last Thursday & today, both times early afternoon.

Last Thurs was almost empty - 3 or 4 people per carriage - first time time I'd taken the tube since March, so felt proper weird seeing all the Covid signage. Everyone wearing masks though, & just as empty on the way back around 6.30pm-ish.

Today, same journey, same time but I'd say the tube was at getting towards normal capacity for a quiet afternoon - people were spacing by sitting in alternate seats, but when it got busier at Vauxhall & Victoria, people just sat in between & filled up the seats.

Not sure what else they could have done really!
Staying on the platform or standing by the doors wouldn't have been any better for distancing.
But everyone was wearing a mask - it didn't feel too bad, but I'm glad I don't have to do that journey every day.

Wondering what morning / evening rush hours are like now? If they're around the level I saw today, I guess it's not too bad, though I wouldn't care for a long journey.

(On the way back this evening, I used the Thameslink back to Herne Hill instead - which was a lot emptier).
 
I was in central London this afternoon.

This is the first time I've been in that it's not felt like a ghost town. Not exactly normal, but plenty of people around. Regent St fairly full of traffic again. Soho pretty busy.

Screen Shot 2020-07-21 at 18.36.41.jpgScreen Shot 2020-07-21 at 18.36.54.jpgScreen Shot 2020-07-21 at 18.37.08.jpgScreen Shot 2020-07-21 at 18.37.22.jpg
 
It would have been a great time to go into central London or the city, bciti would not use public transport and can't even take the car at weekends Now, so no, couldn't do it.
 
On a slightly different note, I have just come out of a virtual tour of sick London, which was very good. It's one of many tours that are still happening.

Sick London Virtual Tour

Join London Blue Badge Guide Russell Nash for this fascinating, if occasionally gruesome tale of a sick city.
www.ianvisits.co.uk www.ianvisits.co.uk
 
Not sure where to ask this so I'll do it here. Can I just walk into a barbers or do I have to make an appointment? My son wants a cut.
 
I went to the cinema earlier this week - the Genesis in Stepney Green - and it felt really safe. This particular cinema already had posh screens where you sit on leather sofas with footstools, so they're easy to keep clean and there's easily 2 metres between you and another sofa. The necessary high ceilings also help reduce transmission. But most people were wearing masks most of the time anyway, even while sitting on those sofas.

Normal screens will find it a little harder, but this is much pleasanter anyway. The tickets cost more but it's definitely worth it.

nagapie said:
Not sure where to ask this so I'll do it here. Can I just walk into a barbers or do I have to make an appointment? My son wants a cut.
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All the ones I've looked at require appointments.
 
scifisam said:
I went to the cinema earlier this week - the Genesis in Stepney Green - and it felt really safe. This particular cinema already had posh screens where you sit on leather sofas with footstools, so they're easy to keep clean and there's easily 2 metres between you and another sofa. The necessary high ceilings also help reduce transmission. But most people were wearing masks most of the time anyway, even while sitting on those sofas.

Normal screens will find it a little harder, but this is much pleasanter anyway. The tickets cost more but it's definitely worth it.



All the ones I've looked at require appointments.
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That‘s my local. :)
Good to hear; I have been meaning to go.
 
scifisam said:
They are also basically showing no ads at the moment. It's nice, but you need to turn up on time for once. And they're not serving pies :( But they are in the discount scheme for pastries and coffee.
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That's ok, I usually go for the Bratwurst with Hela Curry Ketchup!
 
FridgeMagnet said:
Might go into town on the weekend to see what it looks like now and do a bit of street photography - I haven't been on public transport for months.
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I didn't, and then I hurt my foot a couple of weeks ago so I've not been into town at all, but I am going to go in tomorrow now that my foot is getting better. There is an NHS march from St James' Park at 11.

There are also protests in Tottenham, but given that the cops are already pre-harassing people, I don't think I'm agile enough for that yet.
 
FridgeMagnet said:
I didn't, and then I hurt my foot a couple of weeks ago so I've not been into town at all, but I am going to go in tomorrow now that my foot is getting better. There is an NHS march from St James' Park at 11.

There are also protests in Tottenham, but given that the cops are already pre-harassing people, I don't think I'm agile enough for that yet.
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What are the Tottenham protests?
 
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