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London Gentrification

Gentrification is the cultural part of it, but more accurately its about an asset bubble, which is tied to both local and international political events.

I think the bubble is very vulnerable - it really wouldn't take much to pop it, considering the continuously precarious state of the global finance system. Greece leaving the EU this year (and defaulting on loans) could do it perhaps....
Here's what happened in Japan
Land-Price-Fluctuation-for-Ginza-7chome.png

(Land Price Fluctuation for Commercial Property in Ginza 7-Chome)

London prices
Ed%20Graph%203.jpg



A question of time surely....
 
that's why i love my area. almost gentrification resistant. selhurst, thornton heath, south norwood. i would rather my house just meets inflation rather than it double in price and me get priced out to sodding edenbridge!
 
it won't burst. the endless stream of people moving into london from here and overseas will prevent it....
 
Belushi said:
If I were 22 again and looking to move to a big city I don't think I'd choose London, it's much tougher for young people to get established than it was when I moved here 20 years ago.

Fortunately I have a nice flat, job I enjoy etc and still enjoy living here - but I hate seeing so many people priced out and so many friends forced out of their neighbourhoods.
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pretty much this ^^^ I moved to London when I was 23, and for the first 5 or 6 years rented in house shares within zone 2 and never paid more than £55 a week for a room - I wouldn't move here now if I was to turn 23 again :hmm:
 
Its not much better in leafy surrey to be fair. I've got a lot of friends who live this way and earn in the 22k to 26k bracket in central london, and by the time they've paid rent, bills, and for a £3k commute every, there's no chance they'll ever be able to save up deposits. The whole thing is just getting out of hand.... London and Surrey will just end up as a retirement community at this rate.
 
Our government is doing everything it can to keep the asset bubble going. It's the only reason anyone in the UK has a 'feel good factor' economically, however false.

If you're a homeowner, especially in the S East, with a 10 year old (or more) mortgage you probably haven't too bad a time of it since 2008, in fact you probably feel richer than you did then. That includes nearly every MP and all the people they're interested in getting votes from. The asset bubble bursting would destroy that feeling of security and would destroy financially anyone who has bought since 2008 at least in the short term. It will happen, it has to eventually, but it won't happen without a considerable fight from whomever is in power. Don't count on it being soon.
 
Plumdaff said:
Our government is doing everything it can to keep the asset bubble going. It's the only reason anyone in the UK has a 'feel good factor' economically, however false.

If you're a homeowner, especially in the S East, with a 10 year old (or more) mortgage you probably haven't too bad a time of it since 2008, in fact you probably feel richer than you did then. That includes nearly every MP and all the people they're interested in getting votes from. The asset bubble bursting would destroy that feeling of security and would destroy financially anyone who has bought since 2008 at least in the short term. It will happen, it has to eventually, but it won't happen without a considerable fight from whomever is in power. Don't count on it being soon.
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agree 100% - the signs are that there has been a deliberate attempt to keep inflating - but as to "don't count on it being soon", yes they'l keep on inflating, but when causes the pop will more likely be something out of the UK governments control...and that can happen at any time really....but yeah, as much as they can have an influence they don't want it any other way....
 
If and when the bubble bursts there are going to be a lot of problems - I remember the last time it happened, in the late 80s maybe? When negative equity was discussed everywhere - and the prices didn't get back to those levels for about 10 years or so
 
Belushi said:
Yeah, I've been expecting this bubble to burst for about 15 years now..
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Yep. Certainly there've been posts just like the one on this page ever since I've been posting here (I like the really confident ones you get sometime - 'the bubble will definitely burst in October').

The question really is how far down it would go if it does burst. London property isn't like Tulips or something like that - there clearly is a massive shortfall in supply even if there are bubble elements to the price as well. Even with a price fall I can't see how it would collapse to the point houses are affordable again.
 
Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
Yep. Certainly there've been posts just like the one on this page ever since I've been posting here (I like the really confident ones you get sometime - 'the bubble will definitely burst in October').

The question really is how far down it would go if it does burst. London property isn't like Tulips or something like that - there clearly is a massive shortfall in supply even if there are bubble elements to the price as well. Even with a price fall I can't see how it would collapse to the point houses are affordable again.
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when people lose their houses as they cant make payments and the entire economy collapses things can change very quickly....people want to come to London because of its relative economic standing - if that goes they wont.
 
ska invita said:
when people lose their houses as they cant make payments and the entire economy collapses things can change very quickly....people want to come to London because of its relative economic standing - if that goes they wont.
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OK sure, if the entire economy collapses who knows what will happen. We could all be hunting urban foxes for food or something. And that's probably not as unlikely as we'd hope tbh. I'd say personally though that that's a bit beyond discussions of London property bubbles.
 
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Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
OK sure, if the entire economy collapses who knows what will happen. We could all be hunting urban foxes for food or something. And that's probably not as unlikely as we'd hope tbh. I'd say personally though that that's a bid beyond discussions of London property bubbles.
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but prices can come down
Land-Price-Fluctuation-for-Ginza-7chome.png
 
ska invita said:
"Under this Government, Britain will not return to the boom and bust of the past."
Click to expand...

That's the thing though isn't it - the booms and busts keep happening but London house prices seem almost immune. They went down somewhat in 2007/8 but only a tiny amount given the scale of the crash in everything else.

I'm not saying it can't happen but I don't think anyone can confidently predict it.
 
If the bubble were to burst, I think we'd still be looking at houses being expensive, especially in London. We haven't been building any - I'd argue that's been deliberate policy - but it has worked in keeping supply low and demand high. I think we'd be looking at going from crazy to just daft with a return to geuninely affordable housing probably taking a generation or so of a slow return to the historical mean. It's didn't get this stupid overnight, it took thirty years.

The sad thing is to consider the human cost of all of this.
 
On another note there is the issue of building high - I think this is where new building is going to happen - toblerone3 was saying the other day that brownfield building basically means high rise building....

Personally I'd rather that than greenfield sprawl... what have the Tories lined up on greenfield building?
 
ska invita said:
On another note there is the issue of building high - I think this is where new building is going to happen - toblerone3 was saying the other day that brownfield building basically means high rise building....

Personally I'd rather that than greenfield sprawl... what have the Tories lined up on greenfield building?
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can't imagine the Tories going all out for greenfield building since most of their support is in areas with lots of err... green fields - :D
 
marty21 said:
can't imagine the Tories going all out for greenfield building since most of their support is in areas with lots of err... green fields - :D
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Yep. The Shires are very blue and very unkeen on other people (especially poorer people) living in their commuter villages.
 
Population and job increases obviously fuel the madness - along with (and I am not being too Tory I hope - as I hate them) - issues with social housing not being social housing but dollops of money given to private landlors on what should be "owned" social housing.

When I were a lad - you could get council housing in say Camden as a London arrival from the wilds - my friends did it - and it was OK (cos population was down and an ageing indigenous population) - so you could make a start and hopefully in a few years make the first steps - to quot some good friends of mine - lived in a Camden Tower block for 2/ 3 years (after renting a shithole in Queens Park - then a middling / slumbering area) - bought a flat in said area for about £36K in 1982 - and gradually moved on up via the back end of Chiswick . slightly ropey Shepherds Bush and now live in leafy Greenwich Park. Worked hard and - and had some luck.

My nephew is lodging with us - (free) his first London job is £25K (from Hereford - so a bit of a shock to him) - has a room planned near Oval soon for over £700 a month. How do we get the bright young , able new generation into London.? - half my nephews and nieces would love to come for a few years..?
 
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