Ok we are in and heading further into a deep financial crisis. We are probably 12 months behnd the USA where e.g. Michigan has over 12% unemployed .. it is thought that here house prices will halve ( though maybe not even back to where they were before ) and unemployment will hit 10%, so clearly a major crisis
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/01/unhappy-new-year
now everyone including me has been following these events and quite rightly seeks to use them to put a revolutionary POV, some from a green perspective but also from a red (n black) perspective. fine and i am not sure what else we could do
but i worry .. for 2 reasons .. and just want to do a little warning
firstly, as a people or class, we are at the most fragmented and disorganised for generations .. this potential social crisis will not be one in which we can use the support networks we once had, particulalry in the cities where communities have been destroyed .. i am not saying that maybe they could not be built 'in the fire' but simply we have done minimal groundwork as we approach what some think could be years of deep class struggle
secondly, in this country, i do not think we understand 'reaction' .. the UK left has never in my understanding been attacked by 'reaction' like the lefts of every other european country i can think off .. Italy in 1920 onwards, austria, germany obviously, spain 36, and more recently the use of the strategy of tension, bombings etc and then mass arrests ( at one time there were over 10000 political prisoners in jail) in Italy in the mid/late 7ts. Only in France following 68 was there no extreme state or fascist 'reaction' except then the right swept the elections, increasing their vote as that of the left diminished.
In the uk we have never sufferred this with 2 specific exceptions, northern ireland, and the miners strike, though electorally maybe you could say after the heightenned class struggle of the 7ts and early 8ts, the rightwing swept the board electorally in 79 and 83. the british state is savvy enough to control events generally without being violent.
so what do i mean by 'reaction'? that following a period of strikes, protests etc the state will act, either by itself using the police and the 'law' and arrest harrass and lock up lots of people, or in proxy using fascists to attack and intimidate.
So for me my 1) is linked with the 2). It seems to me IF people wish to embark on a strategy that really means they wish to overthrow capitalism and the capitalist state then they really need to be aware of what that means ( and sorry to be preachy as i am sure most people ARE deeply aware of what this means for them ). But for me the key thing is that without the groundwork in the communities people are really putting themselves out on a limb.
Mao ( and the PIRA) used to talk of having 'a sea to swim in' .. and i agree absolutely .. without 'a sea to swim in' we are in a danger of falling into a trap in which 'reaction' will come and there will be nothing we can do to stop it
IF the financial crisis is as bad as people suggest it will be it will STILL only affect really negatively a minority of people .. i have long argued that change will not come form trying to mobilise minorities but convincing majorities of the need and benefit of change
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=173877 "Control/Power;And how the revolution can and will come from the majority"
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=246188
" .. this 'disaster' politics / immiseration politics is totally wrong .. based on '.. only our chains to lose' i guess .. it is 150 years out of date .. people who are desperate will always take reforms, will always settle for less than revolution .. the left forever seeks out the new most oppressed group, the new immiserated group, the new minority that will lead the revolution, the shock that will open peoples eyes .. IT DOES NOT WORK .. revolution can only be based on the majority .. can only be based on APPEALING to the majority.." etc etc
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/01/unhappy-new-year
now everyone including me has been following these events and quite rightly seeks to use them to put a revolutionary POV, some from a green perspective but also from a red (n black) perspective. fine and i am not sure what else we could do
but i worry .. for 2 reasons .. and just want to do a little warning
firstly, as a people or class, we are at the most fragmented and disorganised for generations .. this potential social crisis will not be one in which we can use the support networks we once had, particulalry in the cities where communities have been destroyed .. i am not saying that maybe they could not be built 'in the fire' but simply we have done minimal groundwork as we approach what some think could be years of deep class struggle
secondly, in this country, i do not think we understand 'reaction' .. the UK left has never in my understanding been attacked by 'reaction' like the lefts of every other european country i can think off .. Italy in 1920 onwards, austria, germany obviously, spain 36, and more recently the use of the strategy of tension, bombings etc and then mass arrests ( at one time there were over 10000 political prisoners in jail) in Italy in the mid/late 7ts. Only in France following 68 was there no extreme state or fascist 'reaction' except then the right swept the elections, increasing their vote as that of the left diminished.
In the uk we have never sufferred this with 2 specific exceptions, northern ireland, and the miners strike, though electorally maybe you could say after the heightenned class struggle of the 7ts and early 8ts, the rightwing swept the board electorally in 79 and 83. the british state is savvy enough to control events generally without being violent.
so what do i mean by 'reaction'? that following a period of strikes, protests etc the state will act, either by itself using the police and the 'law' and arrest harrass and lock up lots of people, or in proxy using fascists to attack and intimidate.
So for me my 1) is linked with the 2). It seems to me IF people wish to embark on a strategy that really means they wish to overthrow capitalism and the capitalist state then they really need to be aware of what that means ( and sorry to be preachy as i am sure most people ARE deeply aware of what this means for them ). But for me the key thing is that without the groundwork in the communities people are really putting themselves out on a limb.
Mao ( and the PIRA) used to talk of having 'a sea to swim in' .. and i agree absolutely .. without 'a sea to swim in' we are in a danger of falling into a trap in which 'reaction' will come and there will be nothing we can do to stop it
IF the financial crisis is as bad as people suggest it will be it will STILL only affect really negatively a minority of people .. i have long argued that change will not come form trying to mobilise minorities but convincing majorities of the need and benefit of change
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=173877 "Control/Power;And how the revolution can and will come from the majority"
http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=246188
" .. this 'disaster' politics / immiseration politics is totally wrong .. based on '.. only our chains to lose' i guess .. it is 150 years out of date .. people who are desperate will always take reforms, will always settle for less than revolution .. the left forever seeks out the new most oppressed group, the new immiserated group, the new minority that will lead the revolution, the shock that will open peoples eyes .. IT DOES NOT WORK .. revolution can only be based on the majority .. can only be based on APPEALING to the majority.." etc etc