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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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This is the maddest thing I've heard for a while:

But the chancellor said businesses had to accept that free movement was coming to an end and urged companies to rethink business models based on cheap, low-skilled labour.
via Philip Hammond urges business leaders to accept Brexit result

Businesses don't have to accept it, they just have to move to somewhere else where their current business model will still work. Like the continent.

I refuse to believe that the Chancellor believed what he just said, and can only assume he'd been told to say it. He knows full well that faced with a choice between rethinking their entire business model against the trend of global economics, or moving to somewhere their business model still works, they'll choose the latter. He's basically trying to argue that numerous businesses should rethink their model because a long running, internal and essentially irresoluble Tory part fight would quite like them to.

Whether that model is right or wrong is a whole other debate. The idea that businesses will choose to rethink it to help out a Tory party fight is laughable.
 
I'm hopeful the seriousness of job losses will eventually hit home. Labour talk about a jobs first brexit while Boris shouts Fuck Business. This madness had to end at some point!
After Brexit, if it happens. Until then it can be compartmentalised to the hypothetical, or the 'they would say that', or the 'would have happened anyway'.
 
This is the maddest thing I've heard for a while:

But the chancellor said businesses had to accept that free movement was coming to an end and urged companies to rethink business models based on cheap, low-skilled labour.

via Philip Hammond urges business leaders to accept Brexit result

Businesses don't have to accept it, they just have to move to somewhere else where their current business model will still work. Like the continent.

Yep, moving all those farms, hand car wash places, etc., etc., shouldn't be too difficult.
 
Yep, moving all those farms, hand car wash places, etc., etc., shouldn't be too difficult.
Yeah, in-person services are obviously not vulnerable to relocation to low(er) wage jurisdictions. But they are vulnerable to wage depression if routine production employers are doing so and shedding workers.
 
Yep, moving all those farms, hand car wash places, etc., etc., shouldn't be too difficult.

Moving them in and of themselves is not possible obviously, so the trade they represent moves to the continent and we buy it back at higher prices due to higher transaction costs and reduction of just in time (farming). Which we can't as easily afford because the jobs that could move have done so. Or they stop existing, and higher cost services have to replace them (hand car washing), which again can't as easily be afforded, because a number of the jobs that paid for them have now gone.

Sometimes political decisions are nuanced and difficult to understand. This whole brexit thing has gone on so long now that we're right down at the economics 101 level, and people are still unclear about it. I'm very, very far from being a Tory, but on a human level I do feel for Phillip Hammond, meant to be the Chancellor, but now being made to say illiterate things him and his team surely just cannot believe.
 
We should probably just leave it to the experts.

No, we should attempt to understand the issues ourselves, then take our democratic decisions based on them. Democracy requires those who vote to research and think about the issues they're voting on. We may each come to different conclusions as a result of it, and that's fantastic. But abrogation of our decision to others, or refusal to consider demonstrable evidence (because "we've had enough of experts / it's just project fear") essentially cause democracy to stop working. Which is exactly what people pushing those lines want.

I mean ffs, Jacob R-M proposed that the Queen should return to shut Parliament yesterday, to prevent the prevention of no-deal brexit. How is that the British people / parliament taking back control? How did millionaire oxbridge bankers become the ones people listen to, rather than looking objectively at the facts themselves?
 
If Hammond had a problem saying things he knows to be untrue I'd imagine he'd have chosen another career.

Fair point. I just got the feeling for the last few weeks he's been trying to speak some sanity in amongst the made up nonsense of an internal political party fight, and now even he has been forced to toe the line.
 
There was a phase on this thread where that was the line - the people voted for Brexit; the Irish stuff isn't their problem; the politicians just have to sort it out now.

Even the “experts” still fail to grasp the republic is not in the UK.
 
How did millionaire oxbridge bankers become the ones people listen to, rather than looking objectively at the facts themselves?

Probably busy working in fast food, hospitality, cleaning, transport, sewage treatment, refuse collection and all the other industries that will move to other countries when we leave the EU.

Maybe then they'll have time to think for themselves and expropriate the millionaire oxbridge bankers.
 
If they say 'we are calm and steady' (strong and stable) enough times and that sinks into people's perception then that is what matters to them. The political leadership has however been anything but the competent actors that they pretend to be. They are drunk on power and not able to plot a steady course. They cannot order their own cabinet and party and are dogged by constant dramatic attempts at alliances and theatrical resignations. So why do May and her tattered government survive?

They are not earning their keep and there is widespread talk of meeting a cliff edge in a few weeks time. Its a shitshow, plain and simple. The idiots really are coming out of the woodwork and having their feeble day in the sun. The dearth in quality lends them authority. I do get the impression that they are embarrassingly slow-minded and are wasting time. Flailing around in other words.
 
Not if you half-arse it, safe in the knowledge that another stocktake isn't going to happen until so much time has passed that you'll have deniability for any glaring discrepancies.

All done and uploaded onto the system. We only did one in September.
It’s just those bosses right at the very top we only see once a year got panicked. Citing one occasion when someone had used the last item from engineering stores and not logged it out.
We will struggle on through this distressing and chaotic period. :D
 
No, we should attempt to understand the issues ourselves, then take our democratic decisions based on them. Democracy requires those who vote to research and think about the issues they're voting on. We may each come to different conclusions as a result of it, and that's fantastic. But abrogation of our decision to others, or refusal to consider demonstrable evidence (because "we've had enough of experts / it's just project fear") essentially cause democracy to stop working. Which is exactly what people pushing those lines want.
And what are the issues? The economics 101 you mentioned? How is this demonstrable evidence defined?* You seem to that a similar view to Rogers when he says
Ivan Rogers said:
We desperately need clear and honest thinking about our choices not just for the weeks but for the years, indeed decades, ahead. I continue to think that our political debate is bedevilled by what, at the time I resigned, I termed “muddled thinking”, and by fantasies and delusions as to what our options really are in the world as it is.

You talk about democracy but seek to limit politics to choices within a narrow set of boundaries. And if someone goes outside those boundaries they are insane, fantasists, deluded. I'm sorry but your and Rogers position is essentially you can have any politics you want so long as its neo-liberal. Well fuck that. The politics I want are completely economically illiterate, that's why I am in favour of them.


*To talk about demonstrable evidence and economics together is somewhat farcical, many of the laws discovered by economists have been shown to be utterly false. The predictions of the OBR have been consistently wrong. These astrologists don't seem very good with evidence.
 
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Day by day i do see things beginning to solidify for May and her deal. There is definitely some European countries sweating and breaking cover and today reports that the DUP may have been won over.
 
Day by day i do see things beginning to solidify for May and her deal. There is definitely some European countries sweating and breaking cover and today reports that the DUP may have been won over.

How much are they getting this time? £25 Billion?
 
How much are they getting this time? £25 Billion?

What's in it for the DUP?

They get Brexit and they keep the tories in power which are two things they very much want. Like the ERG they have to play their hand delicately, they want to dictate things exactly on their terms but if they overplay their hand then they run the risk of a general election, a Corbyn government and a soft Brexit or even no Brexit at all. Things they are not keen on, one little bit.

A pride saving compromise just needs to be found on the backstop, which I suspect will or already has.
 
What's in it for the DUP?

They get Brexit and they keep the tories in power which are two things they very much want. Like the ERG they have to play their hand delicately, they want to dictate things exactly on their terms but if they overplay their hand then they run the risk of a general election, a Corbyn government and a soft Brexit or even no Brexit at all. Things they are not keen on, one little bit.

A pride saving compromise just needs to be found on the backstop, which I suspect will or already has.
Not quite sure why the DUP wants brexit, tbf. It's not particularly logical for them to support something that stresses the Union. Keeping the tories in power has to be their main motivation.
 
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