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Iran, and how to keep BAE shareholders happy

if Iran get involved, China get involved.

Afghanistan is leaking into Pakistan.

Pakistan, India, nuclear arms race... centuries of discontent.

Bush lit the Blue Touchpaper a decade ago in search of oil just after the world bank and other international merchants' accounting data got blown up.
 
BA.L shareholders (a sad group of which I have the misfortune to belong) haven't been happy since October 2007. The Indian MRCA and US T-X procurement competitions mean far more to BAE than any putative brushfire war in Persia.
 
At a guess if there were formal legit plans to attack Iran I would suspect that only a small number of people would know about it, and it would be in a trusted circle of people. The fact that this "plan" has got out into the press makes me suspect it might possibly be leaked on purpose, maybe to see how Iran reacts, shaking the tree and see what falls out. It also gets the public ready to the idea of an attack on Iran, so if it did happen it wouldn't be a huge shock to both the public and other countries.
 
Yep, we better get ready; I'm sure Iranians think of nothing other than firing warheads right across Europe to a bizarre island on the other side.
 
I wonder if anyone here has read Lewis Page's book, "Lions, Donkeys and Dinosaurs"? He has a lot of very unflattering things to say about BaE, including that they should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize because they produce so much crap equipment.
 
Kippa said:
At a guess if there were formal legit plans to attack Iran I would suspect that only a small number of people would know about it, and it would be in a trusted circle of people. The fact that this "plan" has got out into the press makes me suspect it might possibly be leaked on purpose, maybe to see how Iran reacts, shaking the tree and see what falls out. It also gets the public ready to the idea of an attack on Iran, so if it did happen it wouldn't be a huge shock to both the public and other countries.
Click to expand...

I am not ready ... not by a long shot..
 
What's always struck me as puzzling about this is that as far as I'm aware, the Iranian nuclear programme is a) perfectly legal under the relevant treaties, b) well spread-out, hidden down mineshafts and/or mixed into crowded university campuses. So I've never really bought into the idea that blasting the shit out of Iran was a genuine attempt to prevent them militarising their legal nuclear programme. Due to the number and nature of the targets that seems quite unworkable.

If anything I'd have the reverse effect I expect. Giving them a very strong motivation to produce some nuclear weapons to deter such behaviour.

Which leaves us with the possibility that they want to blast Iran's infrastructure to bits for some other reason that they'd prefer not to discuss with the public and all this WMD stuff is just an excuse they find serviceable.

Does that strike a vague chord of memory with anyone? Like maybe something a bit like that might have happened before?
 
What about unconventional means of deploying a WMD? Is it fiesable that they could make a very small mini nuke, perhaps in parts and ship it/deliver it in the country by courier? That would do away with the need aquiring or devoloping an intercontinental ballistic missle.
 
Israel wants to remain the only kid on that block with WMD, it is twisting the USA's arm for assistance in remaining that. The idea that Iran wants nukes to dissuade potential invadors is quite rational when you take into account the stance of Israel and America to it. Israel and America are positively gunning for a fight, would they be so gung ho if Iran had nukes, I suspect not.
 
mattie said:
Although I know this has been discussed in outline in other threads, I've been off the pace on this one - plans to invade Iran?
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The updating of the plan isn't news. There will be plans in place to attack even the unlikeliest targets. And all these plans get updated. It's what staff officers do. If we need to invade Andorra, there'll be a plan for it. The point is that HMG are leaking that the plan is being updated.
 
Quartz said:
The updating of the plan isn't news. There will be plans in place to attack even the unlikeliest targets. And all these plans get updated. It's what staff officers do. If we need to invade Andorra, there'll be a plan for it. The point is that HMG are leaking that the plan is being updated.
Click to expand...

I think we all get that - the point is, there's currently a lot of noise around plans to attack Iran, such that it implies we're moving from academic planning to preparing to do.
 
Kippa said:
What about unconventional means of deploying a WMD? Is it fiesable that they could make a very small mini nuke, perhaps in parts and ship it/deliver it in the country by courier? That would do away with the need aquiring or devoloping an intercontinental ballistic missle.
Click to expand...

AFAIK the thing that scares the security bods most is the possibility of a nuclear bomb being smuggled onto an airliner and detonated over a major city. The consequences of even a relatively small nuke airbursting over - say - London don't bear thinking about...
 
they won't rest until they've done the whole middle east , except Saudi Arabia, they are the "good" arabs - the ones who do the same naughty stuff with zero human rights but who TRADE with us!!
 
lions donkeys and dinosaurs is a very flawed book to be kind but BIG and EXPENSIVE along with the MOD produce some shockingly crap shit.
oh course they use bribary how else do they flogg their overpriced under speced shit.

that old hippy t-shirt "what would happen if armys had to orgainse jumble sales for guns" somebody cynically mused we'd get kit that fucking works:mad:
 
da bishop said:
if Iran get involved, China get involved.

Afghanistan is leaking into Pakistan.
Click to expand...

Mostly because the divide is artificial, and people in adjoining territories in Afghanistan and Pakistan tend to construct their idea of belonging with reference to tribal affiliation, not nationality.

Pakistan, India, nuclear arms race... centuries of discontent.

Bush lit the Blue Touchpaper a decade ago in search of oil just after the world bank and other international merchants' accounting data got blown up.
Click to expand...

Arguably, the blue touchpaper was lit back in the first half of the 20th century, when (primarily) Britain and the US tried their hands at wholesale king-making and regime-breaking in the Middle East. Everything else has followed from that, and the king-making itslef followed on from various European colonial adventures in the area, as well as rounds of "the Great Game".
 
Kippa said:
What about unconventional means of deploying a WMD? Is it fiesable that they could make a very small mini nuke, perhaps in parts and ship it/deliver it in the country by courier? That would do away with the need aquiring or devoloping an intercontinental ballistic missle.
Click to expand...

PM FREDERICK FORSYTH FOR INFO

eta - thats the plot of a book of his, The Fourth Protocol. Russians not Iranians though
 
Kippa said:
At a guess if there were formal legit plans to attack Iran I would suspect that only a small number of people would know about it, and it would be in a trusted circle of people. The fact that this "plan" has got out into the press makes me suspect it might possibly be leaked on purpose, maybe to see how Iran reacts, shaking the tree and see what falls out. It also gets the public ready to the idea of an attack on Iran, so if it did happen it wouldn't be a huge shock to both the public and other countries.
Click to expand...

Every military power bloc has ongoing plans for various scenarios, and the general staff of the various militaries will doubtless "game" most of these plans in order to measure possible effectiveness, and so that they can adjust strategy and tactics accordingly. Plans to invade Iran have been surfacing since Iraq was invaded. This one is just the latest iteration. Unless it's supported by personnel and logistics activity it is, as you've said, just shaking the tree.
 
dylanredefined said:
With what? Might be able to bomb the crap out of it.Invade is not possible.
Click to expand...

Not true. Invasion is possible, but extremely difficult and complex. Bear in mind that in terms of invasion, the US would probably be looking at only attempting to hold a small amount of territory, most likely Khuzestan. Go elsewhere and they'd open themselves up to the same scenarios that the Soviet military had played out on them in Afghanistan. Khuzestan would also give them the most oil-rich territory and a land route to Iraq if they had to withdraw quickly.
 
Kippa said:
What about unconventional means of deploying a WMD? Is it fiesable that they could make a very small mini nuke, perhaps in parts and ship it/deliver it in the country by courier? That would do away with the need aquiring or devoloping an intercontinental ballistic missle.
Click to expand...
Thank fuck for Royal Mail. We tried to deliver your nuclear bomb, but nobody answered the door when we didn't ring the doorbell, please come to a depot miles from anywhere between the hours of 02:00 and 04:30 to collect it
 
Roadkill said:
AFAIK the thing that scares the security bods most is the possibility of a nuclear bomb being smuggled onto an airliner and detonated over a major city. The consequences of even a relatively small nuke airbursting over - say - London don't bear thinking about...
Click to expand...

TBF, it doesn't even need to be a nuclear detonation. An airburst that distributed radioactive material via a conventional explosion wouldn't be as "spectacular", but outwith the blast damage and flash-burning that a nuclear detonation would yield, the long-term radiological implications would be very similar.
 
gosub said:
Thank fuck for Royal Mail. We tried to deliver your nuclear bomb, but nobody answered the door when we didn't ring the doorbell, please come to a depot miles from anywhere between the hours of 02:00 and 04:30 to collect it
Click to expand...

You forgot to mention that someone would have tried to play football with it at the sorting office. :)
 
france has promised to nuke iran if it even suspects its behind any sort of nuclear like attack on french intrests
 
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