HS2 high-speed London-Birmingham route rail project - discussion

[hash tag]

It's not quite that bad (count the cranes on the London skyline and tell me it's a bad place to invest in property!), but yes, we do have a pretty restrictive and people-empowering planning system. In some ways it's great, as it can keep inappropriate development at bay. But in other ways it's awful because a handful of NIMBYs can wreck vital infrastructure projects.
France isn't quite the CCP, but they can ram stuff through if they want it badly.

But how long did it take for those cranes to get there. The power station and neighbouring projects took years. Chelsea barracks, not least because of Prince Charles took forever and these are lower level out of centre developments.
A quick look at the Shard and it looks like it took 11 years to get construction under way.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Well , we could ask ourselves how the Chinese (for example) manage to build so much high-speed rail for a fraction of what HS2 costs. And the answer is that the CCP gets what the CCP wants, and fuck you if you stand in the way.

Modern construction project costs are mostly due to things like worker safety, environmental protection, community consultation etc. All the "externalities" that would otherwise be swept under the rug. Such things might not be on the project balance sheet in other countries, but the costs still exist. Workers die or get injured, ecosystems are destroyed, communities torn apart, and that can all be accounted for in monetary terms.

(We could save a few billion by just ramming through the Chilterns in cutting and on viaduct, and demolish any awkward villages in the way. But insstead it's tunnels for miles.)

As for over-budget, over-time, it has always been this way. No public works project would get greenlit with genuine costs and schedules. Everyone puts in the "best possible case" figures, and a razor thin margin and then acts all surprised when they go over.

Finally, covid and now inflation really have done a number on the construction industry in general. HS2 was always going to go over budget, but not to this extreme.

EDIT: Finally for real: In terms of the lifetime of the asset, it barely matters. We're currently getting good use out of 150 year-old railway infrastructure and can expect the same or better from HS2. £10bn or 5 years here or there is peanuts on that scale.

It's worth contrasting this with the bitter bypass building of the 90s, the government rammed so many of those through and destroyed towns and wildlife in a commited way it hasn't with HS2

 

[teuchter]

Pleased to see that at least the Lower Thames Crossing is also delayed.

Construction not started there yet. How about all the anti HS2 protestors turn their attention to this much more environmentally damaging project and kill it off while there's still an opportunity.

Lower Thames Crossing project delayed by two years

Transport Secretary Mark Harper says pushing back the timeline will help meet inflation pressures.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[T & P]

But how long did it take for those cranes to get there. The power station and neighbouring projects took years. Chelsea barracks, not least because of Prince Charles took forever and these are lower level out of centre developments.
A quick look at the Shard and it looks like it took 11 years to get construction under way.

The construction phase can also a take surprisingly long time. And I’m not talking just about large rail projects, which admittedly often face bigger geographical challenges than in the likes of France. When they decided to redesign the layout of The Queen’s Circus roundabout near the Battersea Power Station, it took eight months from breaking ground to complete.

Eight fucking months to build a few small segments of segregated cycle lanes around a roundabout and install a few traffic lights. They’d build a 100 km stretch of motorway in the same period anywhere else.

 

[hash tag]

That roundabout it still a mess and causing more problems than it solves, but I digress.

 

[alex_]

But how long did it take for those cranes to get there. The power station and neighbouring projects took years. Chelsea barracks, not least because of Prince Charles took forever and these are lower level out of centre developments.
A quick look at the Shard and it looks like it took 11 years to get construction under way.

I know this is boring and capitalist, but these things ( even state things like hs2 ) are always financed with loans and the interest paid over the whole project affects the final cost - so if you can build faster, you can pay back the loan faster and the whole thing costs less.

 

[teuchter]

It's difficult to find a clear explanation (for someone without a lot of financial knowledge) of how HS2 is actually funded - can anyone link me to one?

As far as I understand, the borrowed money is mostly government gilts. And the interest on these is low, so it's different from a private development which would be using loans with higher interest rates.

But have interest rates on those gilts changed in the last few years (I seem to remember at one point things saying that the interest was virtually zero or even negative)? And does that mean that the interest cost of money already borrowed has gone up, or does it just mean that further borrowing to cover budget increases is more more expensive?

 

[Dogsauce]

.
I gather things like this are much quicker in France.
.

In France, there isn’t so much in the gaps between the cities, less densely populated and cheaper less appealing land. The French high speed system also tends to pass the outskirts of cities with parkway type stations rather than deliver you into the centre, so it’s quite different from what is being done in the U.K.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

In France, there isn’t so much in the gaps between the cities, less densely populated and cheaper less appealing land. The French high speed system also tends to pass the outskirts of cities with parkway type stations rather than deliver you into the centre, so it’s quite different from what is being done in the U.K.

In France for compulsory purchase they offer something like 125% of market value, in the UK in many cases they give way below market value.

 

[Dogsauce]

In France for compulsory purchase they offer something like 125% of market value, in the UK in many cases they give way below market value.

And probably pay ten times that to lawyers and consultants to argue the case for paying less…

 

[Saints Alive]

As for over-budget, over-time, it has always been this way. No public works project would get greenlit with genuine costs and schedules. Everyone puts in the "best possible case" figures, and a razor thin margin and then acts all surprised when they go over.

Professor Bent Flyvbjerg at Oxford developed a theory called Design by Deception where he basically postulates that people with a vested interest in projects going ahead (consultants, engineers, etc, etc) lowball their estimates in order to deceive the client into proceeding with the project in the hope that they will end up so committed to the project that they will not be able to back out.

I'm sure there's an element of this but think it is probably a bit less nefarious - everyone involved (including the customer) deceives themselves and each other into thinking they will bring in the project at their initial estimates of time and cost despite plenty of evidence to the contrary from previous projects. Add to this a large dollop of optimism bias and you have the go-ahead for the project.

 

[Dogsauce]

I seem to recall that HS1 was in-budget and on time, so it can happen.

but having worked in engineering consultancy for a decent chunk of my life I know that the game is to get your foot in the door with a client (often with a low price for an initial piece of work) then find additional problems (there are always unknowns tbh) that you can charge them a large amount to resolve, knowing that they won’t bother to retender this part of the work because it’s a lot of hassle to do so (in part because the tendering methods used by larger clients have been designed by consultants to be complex and time to do this would impact the delivery of the project). Even when there are rules about requiring to tender work over a certain value, ways are found around this. It’s a scam.

 

[T & P]

I hate the current Euston station as much as the next person, but five billion…

Revised plans for HS2 Euston terminus would cost almost £5bn, says watchdog

NAO warns cost of station in London almost double initial budget and pause on work could push it higher

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

£80 for every person in the UK. Just where is all that money going???

 

[T & P]

Inflation and higher wages/ cost of living only accounts for so much. I’d be surprised if a similar station redevelopment anywhere else in Europe would even touch the 1bn mark.

 

[teuchter]

This video tries to compare HS2 with various other large projects in Europe, using a bunch of different metrics.

 

[DJWrongspeed]

Inflation and higher wages/ cost of living only accounts for so much. I’d be surprised if a similar station redevelopment anywhere else in Europe would even touch the 1bn mark.

Tottenham crt rd Crossrail redevelopment cost £1bn but it was very complicated and underground.

 

[teuchter]

And the Stuttgart 21 project is around €9bn.

https://www.railjournal.com/infrastructure/stuttgart-21-project-cost-increases-by-e950m/

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Tottenham crt rd Crossrail redevelopment cost £1bn but it was very complicated and underground.

Should've been cheaper then, no outside walls to worry about

 

[DJWrongspeed]

I hate the current Euston station as much as the next person, but five billion…

Revised plans for HS2 Euston terminus would cost almost £5bn, says watchdog

NAO warns cost of station in London almost double initial budget and pause on work could push it higher

www.theguardian.com

Well if they'd just gone on and finished it by now......

 

[alex_]

Well if they'd just gone on and finished it by now......

“By June 1841 the entire route was completed. It had cost £6,500,000, more than double the original estimate”

( of the construction of the great western railway by Brunel )

 

[Artaxerxes]

Tottenham crt rd Crossrail redevelopment cost £1bn but it was very complicated and underground.

Huge chunks of HS2 are underground so it's bumped up cost

 

[Artaxerxes]

https://archive.is/oRCLG

Great British Railways fobbed off in favour of self driving vehicles

 

[blossie33]

Colne Valley extension in progress ...

 

[blossie33]

HS2: Rail link rated 'unachievable' by infrastructure watchdog

 

[Brainaddict]

HS2: Rail link rated 'unachievable' by infrastructure watchdog

Yeah, I wondered what that really means. Clearly they've done so much work now that they are going to have to achieve it, one way or another. Presumably it means unachievable at current budget and in current timeframes?

 

[alex_]

Yeah, I wondered what that really means. Clearly they've done so much work now that they are going to have to achieve it, one way or another. Presumably it means unachievable at current budget and in current timeframes?

Yes, for example they’ve already bought the trains.

What most people don’t get about hs2 is that it’s paid for by its fares revenue. Most people seem to think that the government have a room with a hundred billion pounds in it and they could choose to spend it on anything they want but have chosen to purchase a trainset.

The loans are already taken out and infrastructure is being built.

If hs2 is cancelled, the state will own a load of infrastructure ( and trains ) which dont produce any money and will need to find another way to pay for it.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

If hs2 is cancelled, the state will own a load of infrastructure ( and trains ) which dont produce any money and will need to find another way to pay for it.

Complete the tracks and add some loops and drops and we'd have the world's biggest rollercoaster. Definitely a good use of £100bn

 

[Tulster218]

Yes, for example they’ve already bought the trains.

What most people don’t get about hs2 is that it’s paid for by its fares revenue. Most people seem to think that the government have a room with a hundred billion pounds in it and they could choose to spend it on anything they want but have chosen to purchase a trainset.

The loans are already taken out and infrastructure is being built.

If hs2 is cancelled, the state will own a load of infrastructure ( and trains ) which dont produce any money and will need to find another way to pay for it.

And the increased connectivity will increase productivity, thereby increasing tax revenues.

 

[teuchter]

HS2: Rail link rated 'unachievable' by infrastructure watchdog

Worth noting that crossrail also achieved a "red" rating at various points in its progress, in the equivalent report in previous years.